has there been any data showing the impact of lollapalooza on covid in chicago?
― global tetrahedron, Monday, 9 August 2021 17:40 (two years ago) link
Not many people went to Lollapalooza, but every one of them started an outbreak
― biz markie post malone (Ye Mad Puffin), Monday, 9 August 2021 17:42 (two years ago) link
I havenโt seen any. I did see a study demonstrating the effect of euro 2000 in England by noting that cases went up much faster along young men than young women.
― ๐ ๐๐ข๐จ (caek), Monday, 9 August 2021 17:43 (two years ago) link
I saw one expert theory stating the large "football effect" on cases had less to do with outdoor transmission and more to do with people packing into pubs/restaurants to watch the matches. any known truth to that or does it seem like hooey?
― there's too much fucking shit on me (Neanderthal), Monday, 9 August 2021 17:48 (two years ago) link
This is fun. Play around! https://www.microcovid.org/
― So who you gonna call? The martini police (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 9 August 2021 18:37 (two years ago) link
fwiw, here's a big reddit thread on Lolla-goers describing their post-fest Covid (or lack thereof) experiences:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Lollapalooza/comments/oxtopg/covid19_megathread/
Here's a follow-up thread that someone compiled with napkin-math results:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Coachella/comments/p0vvi1/post_lolla_covid_test_results/h89q3wa/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3
So I tallied all the responses from that thread. Approximately 7.2% of posters fully vaccinated with Pfizer reported positive results, 8.7% for Moderna and 12.5% for J&J. 1/3 of unvaccinated posters reported they tested positive.It's not necessarily an accurate or scientific poll in any way but those numbers make me feel a bit more uncomfortable about attending Bonnaroo in a few weeks.
It's not necessarily an accurate or scientific poll in any way but those numbers make me feel a bit more uncomfortable about attending Bonnaroo in a few weeks.
― Josh in Chicago, Monday, 9 August 2021 18:50 (two years ago) link
lol this is what all the polyamorous nerds in the Bay Area are using to coordinate their overlapping circles
― lukas, Monday, 9 August 2021 18:53 (two years ago) link
Alfred, that seems to be saying getting together indoors w/o masks for 5 hrs 1X per wk with two other vaccinated people (i.e. dinner and drinks) is no bueno.
― Carlos Santana & Mahavishnu Rob Thomas (PBKR), Monday, 9 August 2021 18:53 (two years ago) link
i would be surprised if that *wasn't* true, but i don't think there's any data. the UK doesn't do systematic random contact tracing, which is what you'd need to answer that question.
the best we have is the circumstantial evidence that it rose more quickly among the demographic more likely to be watching the euros in groups, i.e. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/surge-covid-cases-among-english-24546468.
― ๐ ๐๐ข๐จ (caek), Monday, 9 August 2021 18:55 (two years ago) link
โ Carlos Santana & Mahavishnu Rob Thomas (PBKR),
I mean, it's automated responses.
― So who you gonna call? The martini police (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 9 August 2021 19:12 (two years ago) link
Not sure what that means.
― Carlos Santana & Mahavishnu Rob Thomas (PBKR), Monday, 9 August 2021 19:19 (two years ago) link
Have to say I agree with that. Pushing aside all of the complete bullshit and blatant misinformation out there, even the best seem to contradict one another and themselves. I suspect that, in a way, it's because we know more than ever that we realize more than ever how little we know.
โ longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Wednesday, 4 August 2021 19:59 (five days ago) bookmarkflaglink
Its cos we keep asking ppl who arent experts in things about those things
Generally once you decide to apply a minor enough level of effort in filtering who is saying what before investing very much in it youll find things are pretty ok
― fix up luke shawp (darraghmac), Monday, 9 August 2021 19:23 (two years ago) link
According to this page, it's as risky or riskier for a fully jabbed person to sit indoors with other vaccinated people than to sit in a restaurant where I don't know if my server or other guests are vaccinated. Which can't be right.
― So who you gonna call? The martini police (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 9 August 2021 19:24 (two years ago) link
Re: the Football Effect. A whole lot of Scottish fans came down to London to watch the England v. Scotland game and ended up taking the Delta variant back to Scotland. A case of history repeating itself supposedly as, in 1349, Scots tried to take advantage of the English dropping like flies with the Black Death by invading and ended up taking it back to Scotland. As I said, supposedly.
― Soundtracked by an ecojazz mixtape (Tom D.), Monday, 9 August 2021 19:25 (two years ago) link
Rock clubs in Oakland reopened, then promptly closed again. And that's okay.
― Andy the Grasshopper, Monday, 9 August 2021 19:28 (two years ago) link
xp to dmac: very prominent health officials in places with reputations for good governance and great data/monitoring have been wrong throughout, including very recently.
like this is the main guy in the UK. he's wrong all the time!
COVID cases have fallen to 33K per day (7-day average) since Neil Ferguson, perhaps the UK's most prominent epidemiologist, said it was "almost inevitable" that cases would hit 100K/day.https://t.co/zE6fYgw2eh pic.twitter.com/pzFgU2gmBg— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 28, 2021
I don't care that the prediction is wrong, I'm sure this stuff is hard to predict. It's that he's consistently so overconfident. Now he says he's "positive" the pandemic will be over by October. Well, probably. But there are downside risks: new variants, waning immunity, etc. pic.twitter.com/rfoWbCtwoh— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 28, 2021
and here's the big guy at UCSF highlighting that he has no idea what's going to happen next
Covid (@UCSF) Chronicles, Day 504To me, the most confusing time in the pandemic was May 2020, as we exited lockdown and nobody quite knew what they should & shouldnโt do (clean the mail? touch the dog?).But now is giving May 2020 a run for its money. (๐งต1/25)— Bob Wachter (@Bob_Wachter) August 4, 2021
― ๐ ๐๐ข๐จ (caek), Monday, 9 August 2021 19:30 (two years ago) link
you can always touch the dog
― frogbs, Monday, 9 August 2021 19:38 (two years ago) link
I saw one expert theory stating the large "football effect" on cases had less to do with outdoor transmission and more to do with people packing into pubs/restaurants to watch the matches.
Only a thorough system of contact tracing could provide useful numbers by which to test this theory, but new cases of covid (esp. delta) overwhelmed our ability to do contact tracing long ago.
This is one frustration I feel about the current 'delta' surge in the USA. It is glaringly obvious that delta variant is extremely contagious and that it can infect fully vaccinated people at a much higher rate than other variants, but how those breakthrough cases relate to an individual's exposure to high risk environments is not known. Maybe most of the breakthroughs happen in people who believed vaccination allowed them to completely resume 'normal life', including traipsing around unmasked in high risk situations. Or maybe there's no obvious pattern. Nobody can say.
― it is to laugh, like so, ha! (Aimless), Monday, 9 August 2021 19:38 (two years ago) link
I do get annoyed at people using polio and smallpox to insinuate we can easily get COVID down to Covid-Zero.
polio spread through fecal matter in water and food, and on occasion, saliva. it was not very easy to spread. (it's also not eradicated, but it's much more rare now obv)
smallpox, unlike COVID, didn't often spread in enclosed settings, spread more through droplets, required longer close-contact to spread, and while it was incredibly infectious, viral shedding didn't start until you witnessed the signature rash appear on your skin, which means you'd never unwittingly transmit it to other people. it spread more slowly and less easily than COVID.
― there's too much fucking shit on me (Neanderthal), Monday, 9 August 2021 19:41 (two years ago) link
A whole lot of Scottish fans came down to London to watch the England v. Scotland game and ended up taking the Delta variant back to Scotland.
Probably, but there was a whole lot of Delta in Scotland already. Glasgow in particular was an early hotspot.
England, well at least the North, has pretty much decided it's all over it seems. In Manchester, Liverpool & Leeds at the weekend i'd say mask wearing in shops / indoor settings was at around 2%, in stations, 5% and on (packed) trains around 10% max. I hope this is not in Scotland's imminent future but i fear this attitude may spread as fast as Delta. Depressing.
― stirmonster, Monday, 9 August 2021 20:07 (two years ago) link
There's just so much anger out there. Obviously you've got the rabid anti-maskers and the rabid anti-vaxxers, but not even just that. I'm sensing more and more anger from the folks who've been doing the "right stuff" since the start - masking up, putting their lives largely on hold, distancing, getting the vaccines as soon as they were ready - only to be told, "well, sorry, 35-40% of this country are selfish assholes so you are just going to have to get right back to doing all of those things! maybe some day things will be better?" *shrug*. Obviously things are constantly evolving and few could have predicted the delta wave to hit us so hard at the exact time people were dipping their toes back in the "more normal" waters, but it's easy to understand the anger and frustration. Idk if I really have a point, I'm just sensing more anger on all sides and it kinda feels like a tipping point. Into what, I couldn't say, but things feel really... unsettling, to try and label it best I can without overstating it too much.
― a superficial sheeb of intelligence (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Monday, 9 August 2021 20:44 (two years ago) link
35-40% of this country are selfish assholes
lol this has been a rallying point for yeeeeeeears. There's always been that smack your forehead frustration in the face of so many assholes feeling.
I said before I'd rather have four more years of Covid than four more years of Trump, because my own simmering anger was driven more by the latter than the former. Now, because of Trump (or at least his followers) we could end up with both, if only in practice. *More* Trumpism and *more* Covid. Which of course is ironic, given his loose credit for getting the vaccine programs going full steam ahead. On the plus side, his unmasked and unvaxxed minions are among the most likely to be hurt be continuing Covid, so maybe the tipping point will be enough of them dying to boost those slim blue margins in states like Georgia. And of course there is always the chance Trump himself could get it again, which would be sweet.
But I wouldn't want to get political in this neutral space.
― Josh in Chicago, Monday, 9 August 2021 20:55 (two years ago) link
we're still in the Trump-era. he may not be President but DeSantis = basically an extension of his body at this point.
― there's too much fucking shit on me (Neanderthal), Monday, 9 August 2021 21:03 (two years ago) link
He's everywhere, like the blob.
― Josh in Chicago, Monday, 9 August 2021 21:04 (two years ago) link
Tipsy posted in the other Covid thread:
I just told my poker circle I'm out of in-person games for now โ we have up to 10 people crammed into a tiny room with limited ventilation, and the host of the game is in a demographic risk group, so I don't feel totally comfortable there (much as I enjoyed the game's in-person return).
Similar boat here, with an in-person game that moved online from March of last year through May. They've had a few games in person that I couldn't make it to, so I'm feeling both some obligation to go this week and also a chance to see friends I haven't seen in forever. Everyone's vaccinated, but I'm still a bit uncomfortable, knowing it's not worth the risk.
― ... (Eazy), Monday, 9 August 2021 21:28 (two years ago) link
Can you move it outside?
― So who you gonna call? The martini police (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 9 August 2021 21:43 (two years ago) link
Might work, since it's only 5-7 people. Haven't been to the house where it's happening, so not sure of the setup.
― ... (Eazy), Monday, 9 August 2021 21:50 (two years ago) link
Sky News Australia has quietly deleted at least 31 videos that question the public health response to Covid-19 or promote unproven treatments as the broadcaster prepares for its chief executive, Paul Whittaker, to appear at a Senate inquiry on Friday
― bobo honkin' slobo babe (sic), Monday, 9 August 2021 22:08 (two years ago) link
this isn't new information, but few people have been connecting the dots of the random studies and actually laying it out like this:
QUICK THREAD ON VACCINES & DELTA: Friday's @PHE_uk report said that viral load in infected vaccinated people was similar to that of uninfected people. As has been pointed out by others, this does *not* mean all is lost and vaccines don't work. 10 tweet thread explaining why!— Prof. Christina Pagel (@chrischirp) August 9, 2021
― there's too much fucking shit on me (Neanderthal), Monday, 9 August 2021 23:18 (two years ago) link
Thanks
― No Particular Place to POLL (James Redd and the Blecchs), Monday, 9 August 2021 23:29 (two years ago) link
this is precisely what Wallensky fucked up and is continuing to fuck up.
She's basically said "Vaccinated people who get infected spread the disease just as much as the unvaccinated", when the truth is closer to "Vaccinated and unvaccinated often have similar viral loads when initially infected, but vaccinated individuals rid themselves of the disease much faster and are not contagious for as long a period as the unvaccinated. As a result, they may shed less viral load than the unvaccinated later in the course of infection".
The conclusion ("we should start masking indoors") is absolutely correct, but the dots to get there have been wrong the whole time. I'm guessing Director Wallensky thinks that if we add the caveats, people will use them as excuses not to mask, but...there's a LOT of resistance to masking now from vaccinated people who previously NEVER resisted, so....clearly she was wrong. I have vaccinated friends who have not resumed masking and I cannot figure out why.
I really think that officials need to find a way to provide free rapid testing kits to families. if you catch infection early, you can really reduce the possibility of spreading to other people than if you basically only get tested if you're displaying symptoms, by which point you've probably already infected people.
― there's too much fucking shit on me (Neanderthal), Monday, 9 August 2021 23:33 (two years ago) link
i've taken 3 tests in a week. no symptoms, and the first time it was just to make sure I was doing the test right, but I figure regular testing doesn't hurt. figuring I'll do two a week unless I have a week where I never leave the house.
― there's too much fucking shit on me (Neanderthal), Monday, 9 August 2021 23:34 (two years ago) link
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/moderna-may-be-superior-pfizer-against-delta-breakthrough-odds-rise-with-time-2021-08-09/
― there's too much fucking shit on me (Neanderthal), Tuesday, 10 August 2021 00:14 (two years ago) link
I haven't yet availed myself of rapid home tests. Anyone have a brand or online source to recommend?
― a man often referred to in the news media as the Duke of Saxony (tipsy mothra), Tuesday, 10 August 2021 00:21 (two years ago) link
I use BinaxNOW
― there's too much fucking shit on me (Neanderthal), Tuesday, 10 August 2021 00:28 (two years ago) link
That or quidel are the usual recommendations
― ๐ ๐๐ข๐จ (caek), Tuesday, 10 August 2021 00:58 (two years ago) link
We have quidel but weโll probably switch to the other one when we run out on the basis that theyโre $20/2 rather than $25/2
― ๐ ๐๐ข๐จ (caek), Tuesday, 10 August 2021 00:59 (two years ago) link
I'm getting a self test from CVS tomorrow. Anyone have tips for the swabbing?
― underminer of twenty years of excellent contribution to this borad (dan m), Tuesday, 10 August 2021 01:01 (two years ago) link
i had a pharmacist do mine last week. previously iโd always done it myself and i used to do both tonsils plus the nose and i really poked that stick way the fuck up there. she only put it in my nose, just as far as the swab. just er, the tip, as it were. swished five circles in left nostril, five in right. it was a binaxNOW test.
― Tracer Hand, Tuesday, 10 August 2021 15:33 (two years ago) link
NB iโve never had it in the ear before
yeah teh five circles....oof, I was more brutal than the doctors who have swabbed me in the past. pulled out a huge mo'fuckin' booger it was gross
― there's too much fucking shit on me (Neanderthal), Tuesday, 10 August 2021 15:46 (two years ago) link
There was a good NPR piece this morning on kids and covid, which of course didn't and really couldn't come to any conclusion beyond "wear a mask." On the one hand, the CHOP doctor cited a rise in covid cases and even emergency room visits among kids under 12, but at the same time he was pretty vague about how sick most of them were (which is understandable, I suppose, because he doesn't want to downplay the possible if not probable risks) and also eventually acknowledged that there is some future as yet determined number of cases (and one presumes deaths) that we as a society will accept as normal before everything else goes back to normal, too. Right now that number is I guess in the tens of thousands, which is not out of the realm of possibility, given how many annual car deaths and flu deaths and deaths from smoking and alcohol related illnesses, etc., that we accept now.
― Josh in Chicago, Tuesday, 10 August 2021 17:39 (two years ago) link
the lateral flow tests don't go as deep up the nose IIUC (never had a PCR myself)
― ๐ ๐๐ข๐จ (caek), Tuesday, 10 August 2021 17:39 (two years ago) link
this is creepy. there's no way this isn't DeSantis's voice in these Tweets
Wrong again. The number of cases @CDCgov released for Florida today is incorrect. They combined MULTIPLE days into one. We anticipate CDC will correct the record. https://t.co/nbKnBNLzvU— Florida Dept. Health (@HealthyFla) August 10, 2021
― there's too much fucking shit on me (Neanderthal), Tuesday, 10 August 2021 17:58 (two years ago) link
and btw there is no way in hell their explanation makes any sense and I do not accept it
― there's too much fucking shit on me (Neanderthal), Tuesday, 10 August 2021 17:59 (two years ago) link
But, like, why?
JUST IN: Southwest Airlines, American Airlines, and Delta Air Lines will NOT REQUIRE employees to get vaccinated, breaking with United Airlines' mandate that workers get vaccinated by October 25th or face getting fired.— Pete Muntean (@petemuntean) August 10, 2021
― Josh in Chicago, Wednesday, 11 August 2021 00:05 (two years ago) link
Itโs union stuff. Similar to what Iโve heard from teachersโ unions. Mandates would have to be part of contract negotiations. The airlines are calculating that itโs not worth pushing the issue.
― epistantophus, Wednesday, 11 August 2021 00:57 (two years ago) link
Delta is famously non-union and United is Union so thatโs not the whole story.
― American Fear of Scampos (Ed), Wednesday, 11 August 2021 02:55 (two years ago) link
my friend sent her three kids back to school (masked). this was yesterday. already:
*One kid in quarantine cos his classmate had COVID. doesn't look like he was masked.*Her 5 year old daughter worried about unmasked classmate.
single mother of three who is immuno-compromised and yes, vaccinated, but....a breakthrough could be rough.
I want to put my hands around so many throats and choke away.
― there's too much fucking shit on me (Neanderthal), Wednesday, 11 August 2021 16:18 (two years ago) link
esp since now she has to wait a few days to test him because today would likely be a false positive.
― there's too much fucking shit on me (Neanderthal), Wednesday, 11 August 2021 16:20 (two years ago) link