Defenestrate Them All: Canadian Politics 2021

if May is the only one who can consistently get elected, why are they picking different leaders?

May resigned as leader two years ago (https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/elizabeth-may-green-party-leader-1.5346635) so it seems they have been flailing since. Paul actually seemed decent to me.

i joined the Green Party to vote for annamie for leader
ridiculous what happened to her

So apparently Alberta is holding a referendum tomorrow?: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-equalization-referendum-1.6214401
About a question that even Jason Kenney admits is pointless and purely for political leverage?:

The referendum on equalization is your chance to say yes for a fair deal.

This is an opportunity to tell Ottawa to take us seriously. pic.twitter.com/20CHNgrC1p

— Jason Kenney (@jkenney) October 17, 2021

Do people know much about the recent law in ON restricting spending on political advertising even outside of election campaigns? I can see some justification for restrictions on campaign funding but it seems odd that they would have needed the notwithstanding clause for this. The Star seems to think it's being used against small activist groups in a non-partisan, non-election-related context: https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/2021/10/17/minister-in-ford-government-used-controversial-law-to-try-to-handcuff-grassroots-groups-fighting-to-stop-new-prison.html

So apparently Alberta is holding a referendum tomorrow?: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-equalization-referendum-1.6214401
About a question that even Jason Kenney admits is pointless and purely for political leverage?:

The referendum on equalization is your chance to say yes for a fair deal.

This is an opportunity to tell Ottawa to take us seriously. pic.twitter.com/20CHNgrC1p
— Jason Kenney (@jkenney) October 17, 2021
― Sequel to Sadness (Sund4r), Sunday, October 17, 2021 7:55 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

I love this. so petty and meaningless. and despite the fact that probably most albertans have some kind of grievance about the issue, it might end up failing because of how unpopular Kenny is.

also cycling back: greens need to stop being the liberal party for people who really love "the nature of things" if they want to differentiate themselves enough to get voted for. although with the NDP we already have the quasi-meaningless, no-hoper "progressive" third party that is about the best they could ever hope to be

so petty and meaningless. and despite the fact that probably most albertans have some kind of grievance about the issue, it might end up failing because of how unpopular Kenny is.

Calgarian here -
My current councillor: taking over from Jeromy Farkas, basically the opposite from him in every way. And speaking of resounding rebukes, I'm very glad Farkas was so soundly defeated.
The councillor in my previous ward: this guy. I do wonder whether a lot of the votes for him came from early ballots, but that might just be wishful thinking.

Kourtney! \m/_

Yeah, Chu’s (extraordinarily narrow) victory basically shows up Ward 4 as the Alberta of Calgary.

What scares you most? We asked Canadians:https://t.co/nMEkSeoiPj pic.twitter.com/EaECQobqeN

— Angus Reid Institute (@angusreidorg) October 28, 2021

I like that Canadians equally fear "Trudeau/Canadian politics and government" and "Bad candy"

Bad candy is a decent description of Justin Trudeau

i feel like if you asked a thousand americans what scared them, no one would answer "nothing"

"Fear itself"--old transplanted Americans who voted for FDR in 1940. I wish Trump had finished right between spiders and snakes.

Find it hard to believe "pain" isn't on there.

I missed the top few choices until I looked at the tweet...I guess pain is subsumed under "illness," but they're not the same thing. I'm fearful of any kind of pain, even a paper cut.

Awful: https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/mobile/teacher-removed-from-a-chelsea-que-elementary-classroom-for-wearing-a-hijab-1.5699395?s=09

I'd been hoping the Outaouais-area boards would follow through on their opposition and just refuse to enforce the law but that was probably hoping for too much.

What would the province have done if they'd just let her teach?

I'd be curious to see what civil disobedience would look like at that level / how it would be received, but yeah I'm not surprised they complied really. I'm trying to imagine explaining this to a 3rd-grader though...

it's such bullshit

did she teach at an anglophone school?

Afaict yes

https://www.thebeaverton.com/2021/12/secular-province-fires-muslim-teacher-right-before-christmas-break/

painfully otm

Thoughts on this?: https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2021/12/10/its-hard-to-look-this-in-the-eye-but-covids-worst-is-coming.html

I'm a little baffled by how they've scheduled boosters in this province. Home care recipients, for example, who were prioritized for the first two shots, haven't been at all, so healthy people over 50 are getting their boosters earlier than potentially vulnerable people under that age.

My brother showed me that article in the Star. You would think that such a rapid spread would have everything locked down completely before Christmas, which may make the timing fortuitous. If this variant spread more slowly, its effects might not be realized until after holiday meetings.

Thoughts on this?: https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2021/12/10/its-hard-to-look-this-in-the-eye-but-covids-worst-is-coming.html

― treat the gelignite tenderly for me (Sund4r), Monday, December 13, 2021 3:01 PM (thirty-three minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

can't read the article (paywalled) but i don't think "the worst is coming" is likely in terms of deaths. cases will likely get high, but aside from israel (who have a low vaccination rate and large clusters of unvaccinated communities) no mass-vaccinated country has seen deaths of the same magnitude as in the pre-vaccine waves. canada's vaccination rate is also very high. based on the numbers here we're currently at 77% (82%) with at least 2 (1) dose, compared to 62%(69%) israel, 69%(75%) uk, 69%(72%) germany & austria and 74%(77%) netherlands. among european countries, only portugal 89%(89%), spain 80%(82%) and iceland 82%(83%) are more vaccinated than us. cases are currently rising in spain and portugal and peaked a month ago in iceland. in all three of those countries deaths have basically de-coupled from cases since summer; iceland's had 4 deaths despite hundreds of cases per day, portugal's peak was 18 deaths per day compared to almost 300 per day in january, and when spain was averaging 20k cases per day in the summer it peaked at about 100 cases per day (compared to 500 per day in march 2021 or 700 per day in april 2020). denmark is just barely below canada in vaccinations at 77%(80%) (although they're ahead in boosters) and is currently having its largest wave ever in terms of cases (7k per day) which so far has only translated to an average of 10 deaths per day, compared to 30 per day in december 2020 when cases were 3.5k per day. deaths lag so that will likely go up, but even hospitalizations (which lag less) are at 450 now v.s. peak of 900 in january

the reports that omicron is less deadly/severe than delta are probably a statistical illusion, but so far it at least doesn't look more deadly, so hopefully the weakened relationship between cases and deaths will continue to hold

it's not really clear what the value of a lockdown is after vacciness are widely available. for example, if we lockdown from now til january, we can delay a wave in early january. but then when we re-open, the wave will resume and the total number of people infected will be unchanged, just the timing is spread out.

(waning immunity also makes this calculus tricky. in some sense it's better for cases to happen sooner, while immunity is strong, than later when it wanes--conditional on them happening at all)

by contrast, a lockdown in december 2020 made a lot of sense, since we delayed deaths until people were able to get vaccinated, and hundreds of thousands of people who would have died lived

i do think we'll see some geographically targeted lockdowns to prevent hospital capacity being overwhelmed, but for the most part i expect other levers (like ratcheting up restrictions on the un-vaccinated) to be used

typo

and when spain was averaging 20k cases per day in the summer it peaked at about 100 cases deaths per day (compared to 500 per day in march 2021 or 700 per day in april 2020).

I agree, and all those points make a lot of sense.

Otm!

https://www.cp24.com/news/there-is-a-myth-out-there-that-it-s-mild-head-of-ontario-s-science-table-says-of-omicron-1.5704993

It seems pretty inconsistent that one of the reasons he’s saying that SA is in a better situation than us with this variant is because of natural immunity from previous infection. The one thing that’s been pretty much verboten as a strategy.

I mean, obviously that’s probably true, but it’s like the messaging is almost designed to make people angry.

The head of the provincial Science Advisory Table is literally saying "this will reach every single person"? And doesn't intend hyperbole? I mean, what can we even do about it in that case?

ON Cabinet meeting this morning; announcement expected at 2 PM, possibly on an accelerated schedule for booster shots.

https://www.cp24.com/news/toronto-pharmacist-quits-job-in-protest-over-shoppers-drug-mart-symptomatic-covid-19-testing-plan-1.5708010

Good for this guy. The SDM symptomatic testing situation is absurd and dangerous.

https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/2021/12/15/ontario-will-offer-covid-19-booster-shots-to-everyone-18-and-older-starting-monday.html

It seems pretty inconsistent that one of the reasons he’s saying that SA is in a better situation than us with this variant is because of natural immunity from previous infection.

“The reason SA is going better is because the people who would have been hit hard by omni are already dead.”

"This sucks--it really, really does." Notwithstanding whatever blame people may or may not attach to you, phrasing it that way does show good political instincts.

Hope you all are doing ok? A lot of things seem to be going sideways now. Our personal household is in close contact COVID exposure protocols for the third time in two months, so that’s been inconvenient at best. I was somewhat relieved to have my booster appointment locked in at the Halton regional clinic for Thursday, but then they sent out an email a few days ago saying they were streamlining each clinic to one vax type only to improve efficiency. Unfortunately ours would now only have Moderna which was not my preference since my first doses were already mixed, Astra then Pfizer. But that was ok, after 40 mins of trying to reschedule I secured one for this week at a regional pfizer one in Burlington, so phew right? Then tonight there was a new email saying that now there’s “an unexpected shortage from the province” so no pfizer at all unless you’re under 30. My listed choices are to - just take the moderna, cancel my appointment and wait, or cancel and go find a pharmacy instead (who somehow still have pfizer, from?) so not sure how many are in the same boat, but it’s certainly frustrating. That and rapid tests suddenly being the new TP.

Sorry to hear that. I'm scheduled for next Wednesday in Goderich (over an hour away, best I could do); I was hoping to get a third shot of Pfizer, but I assume that won't happen. The thing that bothers me about Moderna is how many people I've heard from who had a rough 24 hours post-shot (I had no reaction whatsoever to my first two). I suppose I'll take the Moderna, just to get it done.

Other big question for right now has to do with school. I can only work for another month whatever happens, but I'd rather be in schools than online. I think it'll be online, though.

My university just announced that we will be moving fully online until the end of January (at least), which is annoying for several personal reasons, but which also raises certain logistical questions: are students who live regularly on campus expected to find housing mid-semester or whenever we make the transition back to in-person? It all seems like a huge mess.

At least I get my booster at the end of this month.

"It all seems like a huge mess."

If it ain't, it'll do till the mess gets here.

The reality is that on Monday for the newly eligible 18+ population, there will likely be no or very few booster appointments available, but we are actively working to increase capacity. (2/3)

— Ottawa Public Health (@OttawaHealth) December 19, 2021

Any idea what time the bookings open tomorrow? I'm wondering if I should check right away at midnight.

8 am, acc. to CTV, but I haven't seen anything directly from the province: https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/everything-you-need-to-know-to-book-your-booster-dose-appointment-in-ontario-tomorrow-1.5713346

monday covid numbers are gonna be crazy