i've been reading nothing but economics books lately (the soros book on the credit crisis isn't bad, amateur philosophizing aside), and this firedoglake piece feels so otm to me it's scary: http://firedoglake.com/2008/06/24/a-bright-shining-depression/
― YGS, Wednesday, 25 June 2008 00:02 (sixteen years ago) link
that article is fairly interesting until you get to
But what really needs to be done, which is to bring insolvent firms under government stewardship and either wind them down or reinflate them, goes against everything the past thirty years has stood for. It's just not the sort of thing neoliberals and neoconservatives, with their touchingly childlike faith in "free" markets, believe in, understand or can even seriously consider.
and then you just go "oh right, firedoglake"
― El Tomboto, Wednesday, 25 June 2008 00:07 (sixteen years ago) link
I mean they go from seemingly being critical of bernanke for eating bear stearns because in their world that somehow lets everybody else off the hook to saying in their conclusion that what really needs to be done is to do more or less exactly that with every company that isn't doing well. That's some sneaky communist bullshit.
― El Tomboto, Wednesday, 25 June 2008 00:09 (sixteen years ago) link
link is fucked?
― BIG HOOS aka the steendriver, Wednesday, 25 June 2008 00:13 (sixteen years ago) link
just google "shining depression"
I'm also kind of thinking a lot of the stuff about the Japanese economy since the bust is straight pulled out of his ass
― El Tomboto, Wednesday, 25 June 2008 00:14 (sixteen years ago) link
you'll eat rats and you'll like it ROFL.
All needed lubrication to operate at peak efficiency...these potions were often found lacking in keeping these delicate instruments humming Jokes write themselves.
americans tend to not begrudge the rich http://bp2.blogger.com/_gze8GjcR_fY/RkfSJ2LKyII/AAAAAAAABeo/J8PyHXXDNx0/s400/homeless2.jpg
― VeronaInTheClub, Wednesday, 25 June 2008 00:31 (sixteen years ago) link
Jeez, Stirling Newberry. Haven't seen that name in ages.
― Oilyrags, Wednesday, 25 June 2008 00:37 (sixteen years ago) link
This gave me the vertigo:
http://homepage.mac.com/ttsmyf/RealDow.gif
― Hurting 2, Wednesday, 25 June 2008 22:14 (sixteen years ago) link
Clinton was more Reagan than Reagan ... which makes you think, how is anything going to get better? Even my grandfather, a life long Republican, thinks things have gotten out of hand and there needs to be a progressive party, though in his opinion one that doesn't belong to the traditional socialist-liberal tradition.
― burt_stanton, Wednesday, 25 June 2008 22:23 (sixteen years ago) link
Long & occasionally dry but fascinating interview with the co-heads of equity strategy at Societe Generale:
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/files/053008_Welling_Edwards-Montier_REPRINT.pdf
(hat tip to Big Picture)
Brief summary is that they basically think we are at the start of a multi-year recession & equity bear market. The chart of the slow-motion post-1929 crash with attendant pollyanna optimisim at each technical bounce on the way down is worth the price of admission.
― o. nate, Thursday, 26 June 2008 20:16 (sixteen years ago) link
WE GONNA DIE
― Eisbaer, Friday, 27 June 2008 17:59 (sixteen years ago) link
The depression will be liveblogged
― Hurting 2, Friday, 27 June 2008 18:36 (sixteen years ago) link
Well Hurting, hopefully the economy is OK by the time we graduate law school :{
― burt_stanton, Friday, 27 June 2008 18:44 (sixteen years ago) link
wow, those societe generale dudes are challops kings. they must be making a killing by being so right about everything.
― circles, Friday, 27 June 2008 18:58 (sixteen years ago) link
the challops kings play songs of slump
― Hurting 2, Friday, 27 June 2008 19:14 (sixteen years ago) link
I read that SG interview and yeah those dudes are mean I'm pretty sure we are all going to die though
― El Tomboto, Friday, 27 June 2008 19:15 (sixteen years ago) link
though I was glad to hear their version on why there's like 17 supertankers full of crude just sitting in the gulf. I speculated (lol) they might be just waiting for the right price on contract, because of institutional investors taking wacky long positions on oil waiting for the $200 barrel, and nobody's coughing that up yet
― El Tomboto, Friday, 27 June 2008 19:19 (sixteen years ago) link
I read on another website that the reason for those tankers sitting in the Gulf was that they are carrying a type of heavy crude which is not usable in most US refineries, so there's less demand for it.
― o. nate, Friday, 27 June 2008 19:27 (sixteen years ago) link
i kind of want to see the wsj article they mentioned, but i haven't been able to find it on their site
― circles, Friday, 27 June 2008 19:27 (sixteen years ago) link
well why would that be news? that would seem to imply there's usually 17 supertankers full of nasty tar sitting in the gulf.
― El Tomboto, Friday, 27 June 2008 19:28 (sixteen years ago) link
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601207&sid=avZ1WowlgKck&refer=energy
― El Tomboto, Friday, 27 June 2008 19:29 (sixteen years ago) link
The "heavy crude" theory:
http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20080523203326AAGQJh8
This is saying it's Saudi Arabia's oil though - whereas the Bloomberg story is about Iraqi oil which is being temporarily stored in tankers while they do some refinery maintenance.
― o. nate, Friday, 27 June 2008 19:36 (sixteen years ago) link
Sorry, it's Iranian oil not Iraqi.
― o. nate, Friday, 27 June 2008 19:38 (sixteen years ago) link
Another Bloomberg story which supports the heavy Iranian oil explanation:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&refer=home&sid=akLt5fJKQNr8
― o. nate, Friday, 27 June 2008 19:39 (sixteen years ago) link
okay I'll buy that, actually. Refineries being the bottleneck seems like the simplest explanation
― El Tomboto, Friday, 27 June 2008 20:20 (sixteen years ago) link
― Eisbaer, Tuesday, 1 July 2008 17:09 (sixteen years ago) link
link?
― El Tomboto, Tuesday, 1 July 2008 17:13 (sixteen years ago) link
http://www.mortuaryservices.com/
― Aimless, Tuesday, 1 July 2008 17:16 (sixteen years ago) link
so, worst month since the great depression
― deej, Tuesday, 1 July 2008 17:17 (sixteen years ago) link
I knew this thread would pop back up today.
― Hurting 2, Tuesday, 1 July 2008 17:17 (sixteen years ago) link
Not worst month, worst June. June has a tendency to be a strong month.
― Hurting 2, Tuesday, 1 July 2008 17:18 (sixteen years ago) link
right yeah i missed that
― deej, Tuesday, 1 July 2008 17:18 (sixteen years ago) link
BTW China's benchmark index apparently had its worst month ever.
singa bouta dooma inna juna
― circles, Tuesday, 1 July 2008 17:19 (sixteen years ago) link
Think how bad off we'd be if it weren't fer all them there stimulatin' checks DC's been dropping on us! We're all such lucky bums.
― Aimless, Tuesday, 1 July 2008 17:27 (sixteen years ago) link
I've heard vague rumors for a while about a potential coming credit crisis II involving credit cards. Anyone have an opinion on this?
― Hurting 2, Tuesday, 1 July 2008 19:26 (sixteen years ago) link
Right now credit card issuers are riding high, because so many USA people use credit or debit cards at the gas station and their cut is a fixed percentage of the sale (iirc it's 2%). This has been jacking up their profits.
However, since a lot of USA people (apparently) were living high by borrowing against rising home equity spending the loan proceeds in the belief that they'd settle their debt when they sold. And since that equity has dropped considerably, while their debts have not, the presumption is that these same folks have been turning to credit cards to reinflate their finances. This, of course, won't do more than postpone things, while also transposing their debt to a higher rate of interest.
This is still in the whispering stage because there aren't any numbers out there to make it real. It's just the markets waiting for another shoe to drop.
― Aimless, Tuesday, 1 July 2008 21:18 (sixteen years ago) link
I heard an interesting NPR piece on gas station economics recently. High prices are actually hurting gas stations -- 1) station's profit margin per gallon apparently doesn't change a lot, 2) high priced reduce demand, and 3) as you say, credit card companies take a fixed percent of the transaction. So lets say a gallon goes from $3.00 to $4.00. The gas station owner makes the same 20 cents on the gallon (I completely made this number up and don't know the real numbers) either way, but the credit card fee goes from taking 6 cents to taking 8 cents out of the owner's profit. And to make things worse, more people, as you say, are using credit cards to pay.
― Hurting 2, Tuesday, 1 July 2008 21:27 (sixteen years ago) link
Visa actually recently reduced its transaction fees in response to this problem, btw. I guess ultimately it's not in their interest to force stations out of business but rather to keep them alive and squeeze as much as they can.
― Hurting 2, Tuesday, 1 July 2008 21:28 (sixteen years ago) link
http://www.templetons.com/brad/smalldarth.jpg
― BIG HOOS aka the steendriver, Tuesday, 1 July 2008 21:35 (sixteen years ago) link
I feel like this could go in the real estate thread too:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/starbucks-pulling-plug-600-us/story.aspx?guid=%7b874B1409-ABC3-432E-85AA-4201C052948C%7d&dist=msr_1&print=true&dist=printMidSection
Remember when a coming-soon Starbucks was considered a sure sign that you should buy a condo in the neighborhood?
― Hurting 2, Tuesday, 1 July 2008 21:35 (sixteen years ago) link
The coffee-shop chain said both full-time and part-time positions will be eliminated but wants to transfer some of those employees affected to nearby stores. Starbucks shares jumped 6% in late trading.
Gotta love capitalism.
― Ned Trifle II, Tuesday, 1 July 2008 21:44 (sixteen years ago) link
I wish they would cut some horrid AAA singer songwriters from the HearMusic roster instead.
― Hurting 2, Tuesday, 1 July 2008 21:46 (sixteen years ago) link
yeah, just trash their contract with antigone rising and save a few baristas' jobs.
― Eisbaer, Tuesday, 1 July 2008 22:14 (sixteen years ago) link
For . . . the Dow Jones industrial average, which dropped 14.4 percent in the six months through June 30, it was the poorest start to a year in nearly four decades.
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUSN3041264220080630?feedType=RSS&feedName=rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews&rpc=22&sp=e
― kamerad, Tuesday, 1 July 2008 22:25 (sixteen years ago) link
-- Ned Trifle II, Tuesday, 1 July 2008 21:44 (Yesterday) Link I know right? Lol at tiger economies. Is anyone at all considering the word 'sustainability'?!
― VeronaInTheClub, Wednesday, 2 July 2008 01:01 (sixteen years ago) link
Anyone? Oh, yes. Many millions are considering this idea.
Several billions are not, especially those who control big financial investments. They only want to be richer at the end of the quarter. By year's end at the latest.
― Aimless, Wednesday, 2 July 2008 01:42 (sixteen years ago) link
Several billions are not, especially those who control big financial investments. They only want to be richer at the end of the quarter. By year's end at the latest. Yeah thats who I was calling out, fuckers do not give a what. I've heard some people talk of participatory economies and localising stuff? On a local scale that might work...
― VeronaInTheClub, Friday, 4 July 2008 01:45 (sixteen years ago) link
I mean on a 'small scale'
― VeronaInTheClub, Friday, 4 July 2008 01:46 (sixteen years ago) link
Well, you can certainly throw a chip or two (of your personal expenditures) on the pile of your local economy. I do this. Just an hout ago I sent to pick up this week's vegies from a local farm, a CSA, about five miles from my house.
All you can do is try. By this thime in my life, I have most of my basic needs already met, so it's easier for me than for someone just starting out. But, in the not so distant future, transport costs will be a much larger part of any item's price tag, so buying local will make more economic sense than it does today.
As life changes radically in the next couple of decades, all these trade-offs will become more obvious.
― Aimless, Friday, 4 July 2008 02:35 (sixteen years ago) link