Does anyone here want to talk about Australian politics?

thanks UFO, this country has trained me to live without hope, but I hope you’re right

Final two polls both have it 53-47. I am daring to hope...

I’m not. But good luck Straya.

today has been very very long and slow

Ok bracing for a golden shower of UAP primary votes

Have been enjoying the endless minutes of Lib, Nat and ALP numpties on the ABC all explaining how a vote for anyone not affiliated with a party formed before the end of WW2 is a vote for chaos and the end of civilisation.

No landslide for Labor, that's for sure

Brisbane *is* rather interesting. ufo otm yesterday!

Labor minority govt with Greens support, if that's how it pans out, is probably the best result

sickos_yes.jpg

Albo in, Scummo out, happy for Aussies.


Albanese describes himself as "half-Italian and half-Irish" and a "non-practicising Catholic". He is also a music fan who reportedly once went to a Pogues gig in a Pixies shirt and intervened as Transport Minister to save a Dolly Parton tour from bureaucratic red tape. In 2013, he co-hosted a pre-election special of music program Rage and his song selection included the Pixies and Pogues alongside the Smiths, the Triffids, PJ Harvey, Hunters & Collectors and Joy Division.

Time for DJ Albo! #AusVotes22 pic.twitter.com/uKHOFnoCYo

— Sam Menhennet (@sammenhennet) May 21, 2022

sentiment taken as intended but afraid I had to FP you

Cautious phew

Feeling pretty good! Greens have done well, Labor won't be able to ignore them. Frydenberg losing is pretty sweet.

Dutton’s “I am your cuddly Liberal Daddy” repositioning speech was super gross

Very glad that my worst imaginings re auspol shitshow failed to materialise - strong Green vote unexpected surprise - realise I know not much about the teal independents other than at least one of them is an ex-Lib - not sure what the implications are if a bunch of them get elected?

this is… quite a good result all round?

This guy scraping by to keep his seat would be a win for nominitive determinism.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ian_Goodenough

I know not much about the teal independents other than at least one of them is an ex-Lib - not sure what the implications are if a bunch of them get elected?

they're a mixed bag, some are very much tree tories who would happily fit into the moderate wing of the liberals if they didn't believe that was a dead end, some are fairly progressive on a lot of things and even to the left of labor on many issues but usually more conservative on economic issues

their overall influence will likely be fairly limited as labor will necessarily require the greens' support to pass anything in the senate & likely won't need anything more than the greens' support in the house at most (they could still end up with a majority but minority seems more likely), so the teals shouldn't have any ability to block anything & if labor passes something that they support but the greens don't, it'll have trouble getting through the senate

this is pretty fantastic result, the worst result for the liberals in at least 40 years which will put them in existential crisis territory, and unexpectedly great for the greens (the greens have gained at least 2 seats and it could be up to 5, though some of those are rather unlikely) while also teaching labor a lesson or too (no, people weren't inspired by your small target and parachuting terrible candidates like keneally who have no community backing into "safe" seats can horribly backfire)

the one risk is labor gets very bitter about the greens 'costing' them a majority (if that's how it works out) and refuses to negotiate on issues much at all & parliament becomes horribly dysfunctional. really just have to hope that they'll be pragmatic enough.

Yep, agree this is a pretty great result. I think Albo's instincts will veer towards the pragmatic re the Greens. But he'll worry about the optics (cue Coalition talking points about Bandt the puppet master) and feel the need to beat his chest and invent confrontations.

https://i.imgur.com/QpWJlzK.jpg

Amazing number of pissy Lib/Nat takes saying that the party had drifted too far to the left (!!) - like, I kinda get that this is jostling for control of the post-loss narrative but it’s also utterly demented.

yeah the party has absolutely lost touch with public opinion and has only retained the rusted-on boomer vote (hi mum and dad). Labor should be deeply ashamed that they “won” on a “platform” which consisted of “the same but not Morrison” which, while pleasing in the short term to be rid of the Scunt, offers little in the way of vision or leadership. At least the numbers of Greens and indies is a neon sign saying “make some actual progress on climate or suffer the consequences.” Plibersek’s hubris was pretty gross but Albo I think is properly humble about taking the job with such a tiny primary vote.

Its that Pato you are sharing a succulent democracy sausage with sic?

my fckn polling place had no (zero) sausages or cake stalls, in inner suburban Hobart. Ruined my day, I had even timed my vote for lunch.

Really wish this was true:

the Mail’s review of the Australian Greens’ agenda is one of the most intense “threaten us with a good time” pieces I’ve ever seen pic.twitter.com/uJEVq9hqSm

— James Mackenzie (@mrjamesmack) May 22, 2022

that is all real greens policy, they're great, but they're not in government so most of that isn't really on the table, unfortunately. in practice i'd probably put them to the left of most european greens parties

labor will necessarily need to rely on them in the senate to pass anything so there is going to be a lot of room for the greens to negotiate concessions & push labor to the left though. we'll have to see how it plays out but it's still the most progressive parliament we've had here in my lifetime by a long way

That's great to hear. Hope the Greens don't fold and are able to get a few things through.

'Bandit' is an anagram of 'I, Bandt'.

off to a great start

Chris Bowen has slapped down Greens demands for a more aggressive decarbonisation pathway amid fears over projects such as Woodside’s $16.5 billion Scarborough gas project. https://t.co/3pnoopcnWg

— Financial Review (@FinancialReview) May 23, 2022

(@trayce - yep, couple of hot Polish with cream cheese & sauerkraut, eaten in the batting cage at the corner of the CHAZ/CHOP: true fucken blue m8)

This parliament is going to be a real argy bargy between Labor and the Greens, but I expect the Greens will win at least some of the battles.

guillotine time

i <3 toto albanese, there i said it

you can line up the account holder though, that’s another matter

Still the best 15+ minutes of TV a week, if you haven't seen it yet

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ANeqEi0xcxw

labor are not going to immediately concede to the greens on anything so i'm not surprised by the rhetoric (though there has been some slightly softer language elsewhere)

the reality is that labor is forced to negotiate with the greens if they want to legislate and this is the reality going forward for them in government that they need to get used to (it was the case in 2010 too but that was a more complex situation). they've shown they can be pragmatic in the past so we just have to wait to see how parliament will play out. labor being underwhelming in government is also a very good way for them to lose further seats to the greens

I suppose the makeup of the Senate will determine how tightly the thumbscrews are applied (and bring it on). They'd have to read a surge in green sentiment in the national outcome too, it might embolden them to tiptoe left of "Liberal Party Lite" policies.

the makeup of the senate is clear enough to say that labor + greens + david pocock (a left-wing independent) should be a majority. an alternative option to working with pocock (though he shouldn't pose many problems to anything labor & the greens support) is jacqui lambie & her newly-elected second senator who should also not be too difficult for them to work with.

if labor wants to pass something extremely shit though they can of course try to get the opposition's backing for things the greens oppose.

not going to immediately concede to the greens on anything

yah, but it’s also clear that the new Minister For Coal is not going to be living up to any broekn labor voters’ fantasies of “they have to campaign on things they don’t believe in in order to win votes! they’ll just do good things instead once they’re in office!”

ty for the MW S- -- I also enjoyed last week's breakdown of Morrison's total failure to whip up a culture war about trans ppl, let alone a victory from one

Are we going to have some UAP nutter in the senate¿?

https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/05/2022-senate-postcounts-main-thread.html

here's a detailed overview of the senate prospects, it's possible we get a uap senator from victoria but it's probably not going to be clear until the senate results are finalised mid-june. would only be potentially taking a seat from the liberals so not a great loss.

That Vic UAP guy appears to be an antivax/antilockdown nutbar. Not the greatest platform to run on when its not even an issue anymore yeesh.

Delightful that Victoria can't claim a Steve Fielding-like "it's byzantine preferences deals wot done it" situation with the Palmer candidate. The UAP primary vote *was* actually relatively strong here and a win for them would appear to be a pretty fair approximation of what the people asked for. *weeps*

Labor + Greens + Pocock = absolute majority in the Senate though, so as long as the right compromises can be made on the Left side of things (big 'if' I guess), they don't have to deal with any of the other morons.

UAP primary vote *was* actually relatively strong here

no, it was still very weak (only 4%, less than 1/3 of the quota for a senate seat), it's just that the Liberal primary vote collapsed enough in Victoria for them not to have a clear path to the 3rd seat that they'd usually be able to get, and the UAP is simply the strongest of the minor parties so they have a chance at it. the result is going to come down to preference distributions so it will be a fair outcome, unlike the case of Steve Fielding which was a product of the completely broken GVT system

there isn't any way for One Nation or any potential UAP senator to be a decisive vote with the way the senate looks now. if Pocock opposes something (not sure why he would but regardless) that's supported by Labor & the Greens then Lambie is a very reasonable alternative, and if Labor wants to pass something completely opposed by the Greens their only option is the Coalition.

We largely appear to be agreeing. I was referring to the Bonham link. Still a small portion of a quota but *relatively* high by national standards. Such that even with a crude allocation of senate slots on first prefs alone (hopelessly artificial but arguably kinda sorta 'What The People Asked For' in many minds) you be giving it to UAP. It certainly wouldn't be scandalous if that's what actually eventuated after distribution. That's basically all I meant.

UAP would need to leap-frog others, via preferences, in most states. Admittedly they'd be leaping over One Nation or whatever, which is arguably a more hideous outcome. Maybe I'll try to take some solace from Palmer at least being preferable to Hanson here, lol.

Lambie is reasonable as long as it's a problem she's personally experienced, otherwise she doesn't give a fuck.

I was all "who or what the feck is a Pocock", having not paid much attention to the indies/ACT votes bcs why would I.