rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

Since no one else has made this joke:

“Choosy moms choose chaos”

I do agree wholeheartedly that “what are y’all on about, the economy is totally awesome” is a message that shouldn’t be pushed

There is a way out of this, according to Mark Penn. Stop being such a peace loving lefty, Joe:

President Biden appears behind in all the swing states and his campaign appears all-too-focused on firming up his political base on the left with his new shift on Israel, a $7 trillion budget, massive tax increases and failing to connect on the basic issues of inflation, immigration and energy. By pitching too much to the base, he is leaving behind the centrist swing voters who shift between parties from election to election and, I believe, will be the key factor deciding the 2024 race.

Our reaction to the economy is mostly vibes. The worst financial crunch of my life happened between fall '09 and roughly fall '11 when like table I juggled several teaching jobs and still just about broke even. Obama wasn't "gaslighting" me about the state of the economy -- my personal economic news sucked! But it's not as if Obama were responsible for it nor did I not vote for him (NB: I did not vote for him in '08; I voted for no prez candidate).

Telling voters that "everything is okay and you are just overreacting and don't understand economics" isn't a winning strategy, and it absolutely is gaslighting.

i read that interest rates won't go down because rental prices won't go down. or i guess this is what the fed is blaming on not bringing interest rates down. rental prices just won't go down. they really are just too high.

it's almost as if too much power is held by the rentier class

there was an article about the SNP a couple of weeks ago which had a paragraph which could apply to pretty much any centre-left party

Sturgeon, Yousaf and the like are always willing to do the right thing so long as they don’t have to fight anyone for it. Or, at least, not anyone too powerful. They want action on climate change, they just don’t want a bare-knuckled scrap with big oil. They want to solve the housing crisis, but don’t let those rent controls squeeze landlords too tight. They like to think they represent the nation in some sort of inevitable march towards progress. Their version of progress is broadly left-wing, but they don’t seem to see the social forces holding it back (other than unionists) as the enemy. This sort of centrism is what the commentariat thinks of as hard headed because they are generally against standing up to the powerful. In reality, it’s woolly thinking.

I have had to downgrade from Ben & Jerry's to a slightly less delicious brand of ice cream, so if the only alternative to Biden is a series of direct blows to the back of my skull with a sledgehammer, the choice is clear.

The thing is economics haven't represented the reality for the average American in quite a long time, but the metrics are the same ones used during the Trump administration, and those numbers are not painting the picture that Trump or anti-Biden voters are claiming it does.

The economy wasn't good for the average American under Trump either! It was good for rich people, business owners (but only some), and people who were already very well off. The point people itt are making, as opposed to the Biden administration, is that by the established rubric that has been used, these voters are simply imagining things were better under the previous administration, and they're largely being influenced by narrative.

Presidents will always claim the economy is great under them and was bad under the other guy no matter what the numbers say. But in a 40 year period where inflation greatly outpaced wages, more jobs were shipped overseas than created here, and we continue to use the stock market as a primary indicator of how well the economy is, despite fewer and fewer Americans even owning stock or having any kind of investments whatsoever....the economy is never going to be good for the average American.

I don't ever see that changing because capitalism is doing what it was always intended to - lower operating costs and increase profits. Political polarization now casts every election as a "please keep the fascist out of office" referendum, and on the Democratic side, any time a candidate beyond moderate emerges as a serious contender, the influential network within the party will collude to take down that candidate.

I will never vote for a candidate in my lifetime who I like, because I live in a state where I constantly have to vote against the evil guy, because of how oppressive it has become to most of my friends living here.

None of the things that are true today will change unless massive violence breaks out in the streets because nobody has to listen to the average American anymore otherwise. But few seem to have the stomach because for most, things rarely get bad enough to the point where they feel they have no other choice. It's a persistent state of "wow this is really bad but I still have much to lose and I have family that I can't make these decisions for".

The only major movements in making change have come through civil disobedience, civilian uprising through obstruction, or rioting.

But the average American buys into the narrative that only working with the system is acceptable, so after we win our little Pyrrhic victories, these voters go flock to the Republican who will get rid of the people blocking the Target they wanted to go to. Who then nominates all fascist SCOTUS justices and throws the country in the garbage for another forty years.

I'm not writing all that to say "life is futile, fuck it", because I recognize all the brave work many people itt do on a regular basis, organizing, and giving back, and actually enacting real change. I'm just continually depressed by the state of the cyclical nature of misery and just happy I'm probably on the back half of my life now and won't have any children to grow up in the worst of it.

i wish the really rich were more uncomfortable in this country. they should be. that's why they like trump though. they know he will protect them from the peasants the next time nobody can find toilet paper. where is the black bloc when we need them?

Bragging about any positive economic achievements (or indeed just vibes) to a monolith of voters is normal incumbent behaviour. If Biden/Dems weren't doing it they'd be just as damned.

The quote from the nurse was interesting only in that it's hard to accept that things like inflation staying consistently below 3%, or a tax cut or some other financial incentive would really be the only things keeping people who feel that way from switching, given that she already voted for the extreme of Trump twice (tho I do get that there are a bunch of people who voted for Obama twice and Trump twice).

Xxpost Like what I mean is this - https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2024/trump-best-job-numbers-ever/

Trump himself is spouting the narrative most people critical of Biden's economy are parroting. It's been thoroughly debunked here. His legacy is a sham.

So what does Biden do to win these voters, when obviously one President's influence over the economy is mild, and he isn't going to tear down the establishments that enable the growing class division and wage disparities?

If numbers actually improve on paper, these voters say "well that may be so, but they're not good for me". Even though things probably weren't good for them under Trump either. Or they were, but for reasons having little to do w Trump (i.e..thry forgot they got a 5k inheritance one year)

If the numbers aren't good, these voters point to those numbers.

Neither President is going to bring prosperity or comfort to the common American. Which is why I'm a social issue voter, though I would be even if the economy was better under Trump because ethics are worth more to me.

It's a multi party problem, the conditions that lead to where we are today moved through Carter, Reagan, Bush Sr, Clinton, Bush Jr, Obama, Trump, and Biden.

But the narrative that THINGS ACTUALLY WERE GREAT UNDER TRUMP AND BIDEN SINGLEHANDEDLY RUINED doesn't help because it's not actually true and gets him back in office, gets Nazis even more comfortable demonstrating on the street, gets protesters targeted and murdered, nominates another right wing justice that assures any progressive legislation at the state level are gutted or struck down federally, past won rights like interracial marriage or gay marriage lose their Federal protections, anti-discrimination laws vanish, regulation is gone and you start dying of e. Coli at Steak and Shake.

I'm being forced to drink poison either way, one that kills me over fifteen years, or one that kills me instantly

you're totally missing my point, but whatever dude, go off.

How am I missing it, exactly.

Like...idk how I could go further to like actually validate what you were saying in my previous two posts.

I'm speaking my own personal perspective here, lmk if I'm not allowed to do that

i mean, the world is quite regularly telling me that right now that I am here to fulfill only what other people want, so y'know what, I'll just take the hint

table's cranky, Neanderthal.

I guess that neither I nor many others with similar complaints are saying that things were better under Trump— only a fool would believe as much. What I am saying is that if Biden wants to win, which surely is what we all want here despite etc, then they need to do a better job than simply saying to people “you are delusional the economy is going great,” because whether it’s just vibes or not, that’s not how a lot of people feel, myself included. Messaging on social issues alone is not going to win him the election— messaging on “we feel your pain” type of stuff might actually work. They have to be able to point toward the good things that have happened in the economy while also acknowledging that a lot of these benefits have not been felt by many people, and that this state of affairs needs to change

table's cranky, Neanderthal.

it’s moments like these that i remember why i left this board for so many years

sheesh

he was giving a quick explanation to divert things away from you while also saying something to help Neanderthal feel better.

shit is too expensive. that's all i know. $15 burrito...get outta here...

i'd say i was better off cooking at home more which i do but shit's still expensive! thanks, biden...

sheesh

he was giving a quick explanation to divert things away from you while also saying something to help Neanderthal feel better.

I'm sorry for writing "vibes" and for offending you, hence my brief biographical sketch to contexualize my post.

But you have a habit yourself of divebombing a thread with an often crude remark, then flying away. I try to be as light as I can when writing here and I assume most posters are being lightly ironic too; maybe I come across as smug.

If the question is "why does Joe Biden refuse to craft a campaign message that appeals specifically to me and my friends?" then the answer is pretty much always going to be that in order to win, he has to gain the votes of a large amount of people that lean much further to the right than that.

Thanks for the apology, and for the feedback— (i mean that sincerely).

fwiw i post here in a pretty sincere way most of the time, even when i am
attempting humor.

If the question is "why does Joe Biden refuse to craft a campaign message that appeals specifically to me and my friends?" then the answer is pretty much always going to be that in order to win, he has to gain the votes of a large amount of people that lean much further to the right than that.

Thanks for the apology, and for the feedback— (i mean that sincerely).

fwiw i post here in a pretty sincere way most of the time, even when i am
attempting humor.

― butt dumb tight my boners got boners (the table is the table),

all good

Messaging on social issues alone is not going to win him the election— messaging on “we feel your pain” type of stuff might actually work. They have to be able to point toward the good things that have happened in the economy while also acknowledging that a lot of these benefits have not been felt by many people, and that this state of affairs needs to change

totally agree with this, and I think the fact that they are not doing that messaging is part of table's frustration (and mine, just saying "but we passed an Inflation Reduction Act" doesn't help)

like, lots of people are hurting economically

xp Moodles that post seems uncharitable to me :(

It’s kind of a fair point though — any ILX poster is approximately 100 miles to the left of the median Democratic voter. America is a right-wing capitalist country with a few somewhat liberal pockets.

but that isn’t what my larger point was about

^^ economic issues are a centrist problem as well!

nobody really likes biden is the problem. there are people who REALLY like trump. there are no people who REALLY like biden.

But there are also people who REALLY hate Trump. And not too many people that REALLY hate Biden. They may dislike him, but they probably don't actually hate him. Not the way Trump-haters do their hatin'.

but certainly people will vote for issues even if they don't love biden. abortion. uh, no dictators. that's an issue now. but also gaza on the other end. i'm glad i'm not a pollster. yeesh. complicated math.

nuh uh, trumpers and lots of even regular republicans REALLY hate biden. for real! they think he ruining the country.

Trumpers didn't hate Biden until Trump told them to. People like me (a decent sort, like you) have hated trump since the USFL days. That's a lot of hate!

i think that's something that a lot of dems don't get. there are lots of repubs and right wing people who think that biden is genuinely evil. like hillary before him. and they ignore that fact at their peril.

Higher minimum wages poll well and win in referendums, universal healthcare consistently polls well, most of the good feeling about Trump’s economic record comes from direct intervention he opposed (stimulus, extended unemployment).

The idea that ‘Americans’ are a mass of economic libertarians does not appear to be true. Neoliberalism is an elite ideology. If you were plotting the silent majority of Americans they’re economically interventionist and socially moderate to conservative.

when the gop wants, it can make people believe you are actually evil incarnate, even against your 150 yrs of cooperative legislative-accomplice history. it’s like their superpower.

some people will vote against their own interests just because it would anger the commie libruls on the east and west coasts with their edumacation and their godless reading skills

most of them can read ok it allows them to do some research on their own.

according to Mark Penn

lol no

There is truly no candidate the Dems could trot out that wouldn't be reviled as evil and country-destroying by the Trumpers. Even if Trump himself switched sides, he'd be reviled as evil and country-destroying.

Yep, the 24/7 Fox hate machine has a lot to do with that. Hillary, Obama, Biden, AOC, all evil incarnate.

they should probably stop loving Hamas so much

Does the White House have surrogates our campaigning, or is it too early?

Too early

“Around 13 percent of the voters who say they voted for Mr. Biden last time, but do not plan to do so again, said that his foreign policy or the war in Gaza was the most important issue to their vote.” https://t.co/xAY8Ny1onw

— Jacob N. Kornbluh (@jacobkornbluh) May 13, 2024

I blame Macklemore