rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

Xpost Bush didn't open the door for Obama due to gas prices, it was due to Iraq fatigue, Katrina, and presiding over the Great Recession. Which frankly has its seeds planted during Democratic and Republican administrations. McCain just took the fall for Dubya

Gas prices the summer before Obama's election were incredibly high - $4 gallon in 2008 dollars is still the record IIRC.

and yes, that was absolutely a major factor in the lead-up to November 2008 - "“When asked in an open-ended format to name the economic or financial problem they have been hearing the most about in the news lately, fully 72% of Americans point to gas and oil prices,” the Pew Research Center wrote in June 2008. “No other issue comes close. The housing and mortgage crisis is a distant second.”"

XP^^And that was goosed by China hoarding fuel for the summer Olympics and some big Gulf hurricanes limiting off-shore production.

I'm talking about the 2012 election. Gas prices had declined to about like 2.17 a gallon by election day 2008. They went under $2 by the time Obama took office.

Romney seized on that and stated during his debate that gas prices had almost doubled from the time Obama took office to election season 2012. There was a huge, racist Super PAC billboard on I-4 around exit 87 eastbound that said "STOP, OBAMA!", that pictured a very racist caricature of Obama kneeling before two Arabs in front of a gas pump that said $5.

It was a narrative. It didn't work. People just didn't like Romney

You also referred to 2008 directly above?

In June 2008. Gas prices dropped sixty cents per gallon between September and October and almost a dollar by November.

Gas prices are the one thing that isn't vibes based. I sincerely doubt that was the defining factor by November.

June was around the time frame oil spiked at $147/barrel. Of course THEN people would cite that

I said "Obama, btw, won re-election despite the narrative that gas prices almost doubled under him (which was technically true only because they cratered due to demand bottoming out due to decreased consumer consumption due to record costs. People stopped traveling!

That narrative didn't sink Obama, he still won handily, despite gas being at an average of 3.34 a gallon in Nov 2012."

If you don't wanna read what I said tho....fine

Gas prices will definitely rise this summer because the people who control them want trump to win.

https://wapo.st/44HTW53

A choice young voters see: Upend the country too much or not enough?

I don't know what "generationally charismatic politician beat the gas narrative" illustrates, though (aside from the argument about Biden lacking "main character energy" maybe having a kernel of truth)? Economic vibes (and in that era the actual economy) did a hell of a number on Democrats nationwide from 2008-2012.

Yes it did. But not in the Presidential election. Which is what we're talking about itt.

It's almost as if significantly fewer (and different) people vote in midterms vs Presidential elections

Yeah, it's simultaneously true that Biden has some real policy/political wins, that the economy as a whole has been OK under his watch by historical standards, that those historical standards are not what people base their sense of "the economy" on, that Trump in a 2nd term would have absolutely faced the same inflation Biden did (duh it was a global phenomenon), that Biden himself has never been a super popular figure much less a beloved leader, that the U.S. right now seems like an exhausting mess from any number of political perspectives, and that when the main thing two-thirds of the country can agree on is that it's headed in the "wrong direction," it's always bad news for an incumbent.

In re YMP's WaPo linked story, the apparently strong and widespread appetite for "tearing down the system completely" is disheartening to me for the simple reason that all the mechanisms for major change that are built into the system have been rendered inoperable by the political climate, so the only avenue for "tearing down the system" would be the application of force majeure. Because the instruments of such force are already concentrated in the army, police, 'national security' apparatus, the wannabe militias, and quite a few criminals, I don't see traveling that avenue as ending in a better system or a better life for anyone who is currently oppressed by the heavy forces of wealth, property rights and white privilege, because the system as it now stands does at least exert some minimal safeguards and constraints on these forces and any such constraints would be entirely swept aside if a fascist takeover happens. The only beneficiaries would be the collaborators, not the resistance.

I don't necessarily think you should read too much into statements like that (though I don't think you should read too little either). A lot of polling has these really open ended and abstract questions that could be interpreted in a myriad of ways, or where terms like capitalism, genocide, socialism, free speech and other signifiers mean all kinds of different things at the same time - which is how we end up with people simultaneously saying "Israel is committing a genocide" and "Israel is trying its best to avoid civilian casualties". On the face of it, only one of these statements can be true, but it depends how the person who said this interpreted it, for them both can be true

Its also relevant how something tracks over time, if 13% of voters think x and 10 years later 16% of voters think x, thats not especially significant, but if its a shift from 3% to 12% thats more significant

Precisely. There were mechs put in place with thought time and effort precisely to avoid this shit. The failures of same are not so much evidence of bad foresight or design but instead of a very extreme insistence by wealth an power in defeating, disregarding, and removing them. And imo to insist “well it’s obvious those control mechs are shit and would never work, and usa needs better systems than say, the judicial one, and impeachment”…ok. but i am near a point of believing that no systems will FORCE a people to act ethically or lawfully if enough of em decide just to be fucking shit people to do v bad things. But to eviscerate or overthrow those mechs, i cannot assume anything better is remotely possible amidst chaos as the rich and armed put all other interests to the wall or under the boot. it’s bad enough and hard enough as it is. i think i get who they will make suffer, because we’ve seen it thousands of times.

after writing all this crap i re-read aimless, and it feels like a fucking re-statement. nevertheless.

"it depends how the person who said this interpreted it, for them both can be true"

i think it needs to be very clearly stated that there is no reasonable way both can be true

yes, that's a sign the poll is flawed not that large numbers of people's interpretations of reality are nonsensical

anvil: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/03/05/online-opt-in-polls-can-produce-misleading-results-especially-for-young-people-and-hispanic-adults/

i think it needs to be very clearly stated that there is no reasonable way both can be true

Depends on if they're using the same definition of genocide as you, and what that definition is we can't know. This is the problem with abstract terms that masquerade as definitive

not that large numbers of people's interpretations of reality are nonsensical

I don't know that interpretations of reality are necessarily nonsensical. Its just that a lot of terms aren't just interpreted differently by different people, its that they're often extremely flexible and pliable. Bernie Sanders is a socialist, millions of people love Bernie and say they support socialism - but is Bernie a socialist? and do they? I would say absolutely not, in a literal sense, but literalism is for the dictionaries

i included the word reasonable and i stand by the statement

Thats fair, but may leave you short of a full eleven

the disappointing counterpart to a baker's dozen

I don't necessarily think you should read too much into statements like that

I used the word "appetite" for a reason. Polls questions like that gauge the emotional temperature of the respondents, not their reasoned conclusions. What's disheartening to me is that mass political bodies move upon their emotions, not reasoned conclusions, and if the system denies a redress of their frustrations then those will eventually find an outlet in the act of literally "tearing the system down".

Some people believe that this is the inevitable path to a socialist revolution by the downtrodden, and in some political masses I think that would be correct. I do not see that coming to pass in the US masses, who have been propagandized from childhood to accept fascist authoritarianism in preference to socialist revolution.

New w/ @HansNichols

It’s not just public spin, Biden doesn’t believe his bad poll numbers nor do many of his top aides, per Dems who have spoken privately with the president and his team.

This informs the largely steady-as-she-goes campaign strategyhttps://t.co/Lu7ilWV59l

— Alex Thompson (@AlexThomp) May 14, 2024

polls are skewed, i repeat, polls are skewed

Reasoned conclusions are mostly illusory but I don't think this is necessarily more or less so than at other times. But I'm not sure this is measuring emotional temperature all that highly either (though it might be the case, I don't think its a given)

I think for "tearing the system down" to be more substantive, we'd need a better idea of what people actually mean by that and with how much conviction, otherwise its too much of an abstract signal

Has there been a deep-dive into how much of Trump's base has died over the past 4 years? I feel like that number is not insignificant. Perhaps I just perform a search...

In this cohort study evaluating 538,159 deaths in individuals aged 25 years and older in Florida and Ohio between March 2020 and December 2021, excess mortality was significantly higher for Republican voters than Democratic voters after COVID-19 vaccines were available to all adults, but not before. These differences were concentrated in counties with lower vaccination rates, and primarily noted in voters residing in Ohio.

src: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2807617

found this from a few years back:

"Excess death rates were 2.8 percentage points (15%) higher for Republican voters compared with Democratic voters (95% PI, 1.6 to 3.7 percentage points)."

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/political-party-affiliation-linked-excess-covid-deaths

xp!!

I posted that Bump piece partly in response to Neanderthal:

None of the things that are true today will change unless massive violence breaks out in the streets because nobody has to listen to the average American anymore otherwise. But few seem to have the stomach because for most, things rarely get bad enough to the point where they feel they have no other choice. It's a persistent state of "wow this is really bad but I still have much to lose and I have family that I can't make these decisions for".

The only major movements in making change have come through civil disobedience, civilian uprising through obstruction, or rioting.

That definition of "tearing the system down" seems more prevalent than, I dunno, a new convention in Philadelphia with powdered wigs 'n' shit.

thanks for that piece, YMP

"Excess death rates were 2.8 percentage points (15%) higher for Republican voters compared with Democratic voters (95% PI, 1.6 to 3.7 percentage points)."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzvk0fWtCs0

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/07/voter-age-biden-trump-2024-election-00150923

fwiw, biden is starting to run away with the 65+ group.

some of that is probably real political realignment (e.g. perhaps people are now getting more small c "conservative" as they age, i.e. preferring the low risk option, rather than more republican per se).

but it's totally plausible that some of biden's improvement in that group is due to the its composition changing because the republican members were more likely to die during the pandemic.

the job creators (*peace be unto them*) are anticipating a january '25 2scoops restoration, merely

https://thehill.com/business/4666442-all-three-major-stock-indexes-close-at-record-highs/

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/17/upshot/they-supported-biden-in-2020-what-made-them-change-their-minds-in-2024.html

There are a lot of people who are a) unhappy with the state of the country and the economy, and b) perceive Biden as weak/incompetent/in over his head. They may not personally like Trump (or even hold conservative beliefs), but they view him as strong and able to shake things up.

Cool.

I mean, he will shake things up. The people who voted for him, he'll shake them up as bad as most.

It's possible we're going to see a lot of one-term turnover in the White House as the new norm in the U.S.

That story isn't saying anything we haven't heard repeatedly.

Oh, for sure, I just feel like it crystallizes things. Like, forget about everything else: This is what the election is going to come down to.

I still don't understand how someone who is not insane can look at Trump and see him as "competent".

Shaking things up is always a net positive, just ask any infant

I've not been borderline obsessive w/ the polls like I was in 2012, 2016, and 2020, but shit still isn't looking good. I don't believe the polls are 'fake', and though I think there's probably still some noise from Kennedy's run, frankly it ain't good.

but....lot of time left, and a whole bunch of unexpected shit will probably happen. some recent state polling has been favorable to Biden, but barely, but the amount of state polling is going to ratchet up after the conventions and whatnot.

new chotiner interview: https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope

this guy does not exactly fill me with hope

yeah, the 'they're wrong, the polls were wrong in 2020 and 2022 rawwwwr' people are living in delusionland. first of all, in the PRESIDENTIAL elections of 2016 and 2020, they underestimated Trump support, so they weren't wrong in the direction you want them to have been wrong in.

we don't need our own Unskewed Polls guy, really we don't.

look the polls right now freak me out too but there are reasons for hope

one, and probably the most important thing, we're still six months away, the conventions and debates having happened yet, historically polls haven't been very accurate this far out

two, this guy is right that polls have been underestimating Dem support for the last few years, all the races that polls have as toss-ups seem to go the Dems' way, sometimes by fairly large margins. Dobbs really did shake things up and I am sure the Dems are gonna campaign hard on it

three, Trump is probably going to be convicted of a bunch of felonies next week. there's a possibility of a hung jury I guess but it really does seem like the trial went very poorly for him. despite what Republicans will tell you, being a convicted felon is not going to play well for him.

four, there's still a pretty big disrepency in funding here. Biden is raising way more cash and they've already bought a ton of the cheap fall airtime. Trump's fundraising is accelerating but he's also blowing through a ton of cash with his legal expenses. given the campaigns haven't really "started" yet this seems like a big problem for Republicans.

five, while I think this guy is wrong in the idea that the opinions of the Bushes or Mike Pence or Mitt Romney matter at all, it does beg the question of who exactly Trump's surrogates are right now, and they're all people even more annoying and less well-liked than him.

six, on a similar point, while this polling does look good for Trump it also looks really bad for a lot of the downballot candidates. there's really nobody else in the Republican party who's even remotely popular. you have to think this will dampen enthusiasm, in 2016 you had a lot of "I don't like Trump but I'm a conservative and I want a Republican administration/Congress"...well guess what, they're all Trumpy now. even if he wins they may get their ass kicked in Congress which is gonna hamper his ability to do any of the shit he's promising.

seven, while it is concerning that Trump's approval rating has slowly been ticking up, I don't think the conclusion to be drawn there is that people are cool with the insurrection now, in fact polling has shown a lot of moderates still really really do not like the dictator shit, but Trump himself has been out of the news for a while, so I think it's more that people aren't being reminded of how horrible Trump is every single day anymore. but once things really kick up they sure will.

eight, this guy is right that Trump himself isn't the same as he was in 2016, or even 2020, he's just so fucking boring and whiny right now, his political instincts are also really fucking bad, I mean one day he posts a video with an overt reference to Nazi Germany, the next he starts talking about American hostages in Russia that will only be released if he wins, again I think all of this is gonna play really poorly amongst the people he needs to win over (namely the independants/swing voters who went 2:1 for him in 2016 but 2:1 for Biden in 2020)

nine, I don't think Trump himself has a very good handle of issues driving the Republican party right now, it used to be he would say "build the wall" and the entire party would make that the #1 issue, now the whole party is a lot weirder and focused on culture war issues that I don't think Trump himself really understands, and again this is gonna come down to turnout and enthusiasm and I don't think Republican voters are really enthusiastic about anything Trump is selling right now (other than getting Biden out of the WH)

ten, one guy who DOES seem to understand the freakiness of the average Republican voter is RFK, and while I don't think he's gonna crack 1% it does seem like he's gonna siphon off a lot more Republican votes than Democrat. its probably more likely that he doesn't matter at all but Trump's recent freakouts about him imply that internal polling is showing him something else.

one, and probably the most important thing, we're still six months away, the conventions and debates having happened yet, historically polls haven't been very accurate this far out

honestly this is the most important one, I mean it's not as if races end up where they started

well, the thing about that is that usually this far out people are not already super familiar with both candidates.

That's why you could have Bill Clinton jumping from third place to first after his convention.