Is the West Experiencing a Right-Wing Drift?

I would strongly advise against checking out the comments on youtube reaction videos to Try That In A Small Town

I would strongly advise against checking out the comments on youtube reaction videos to Try That In A Small Town

I have managed to avoid actually listening to the song.

I would strongly advise against checking out the comments on youtube reaction videos to Try That In A Small Town

*doctor misdiagnosing rheumatoid arthritis* I would strongly advise against checking out the comments on youtube reaction videos to Try That In A Small Town

https://balkaninsight.com/2023/08/22/slovak-opposition-claims-sep-election-will-be-stolen-and-too-many-believe-it/

Looking ahead to Slovakia's election next month, as Fico and SMER are now leading on 24% in latest couple of polls

Not trying to be a dickhead, but as someone who has spent a fair amount of time in Eastern Europe and the Balkans, I don’t think of them as part of the “West” because frankly, they’re not, despite any memberships in the EU or NATO or etc,

https://balkaninsight.com/2023/09/05/slovak-election-pitches-past-against-future-says-democratic-contender/

More on the election in two weeks, Fico consistently leading in polls for quite a while now

https://www.dw.com/en/german-conservatives-scorned-over-vote-with-far-right-afd/a-66822806

the cordon sanitaire against the AfD continues to weaken

The CDU joined forces with both the AfD and the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) to sink the tax on buying real estate in Thuringia from 6.5% to 5%.

Together, the three parties were able to muscle the legislation past the state's minority government of the Left, the Social Democrats and the Greens, which together have only 42 of the parliament's 90 seats.

The CDU's Merz has defended the actions of his colleagues in Thuringia, saying the CDU did not shape policy according to what how other parties would vote. He denied that the CDU had worked with the AfD and said the party's so-called "firewall" against the far-right would be maintained at both state and national levels.

a couple of month's ago Merz was publicly musing on the CDU dropping it's opposition to working with the AfD at municipal level, though he backtracked after criticism.

also, this is from the lead editorial in this weeks Economist:

How should centrist voters and parties respond to the threat from the hard right? The old answer was to erect a cordon sanitaire. Mainstream parties refused to work with the insurgents; mainstream media refused to air their views. That approach may have run out of road; in places it is becoming counter-productive. In Germany the isolation of the afd has reinforced its narrative of being the only alternative to a failed establishment. Mainstream parties cannot pretend for ever not to hear the voice of 20% of voters without eventually corroding democracy.

Meanwhile, there is more evidence that hard-right parties in Europe tend to moderate their views when they have to take responsibility for governing.

Any decision to include a hard-right party in local or national government should be taken with extreme caution, especially in places where a history of fascism arouses acute sensitivity. Some rules of the road may help. One is that to be considered, any party must agree to renounce violence and respect the rule of law. Just as important is the constitutional context: at what level of government should they be included? What are the checks and balances created by the electoral system and other institutions? It may make sense to allow the afd to take part as junior members of local-government coalitions in Germany, for example.

Shocking that the Economist would be first in line for the "don't let's be beastly to the nazis" takes.

remember that other party they said would moderate their views when they got into power?

part whatever in the liberals talking themselves into fascism series

Some rules of the road may help.

chef's kiss

don't you understand, they agreed to renounce violence and respect the rule of law! what could possibly go wrong?

also fuck the Economist forever

You can't take the name Face-Eating Tigers Party literally.

Election taking place tomorrow, SMERs lead looks relatively small. Not that clear which way this might go

Fico/SMER wins as expected (though exit polls got it wrong, polls in the run in were correct)

He'll need to form a coalition, but the votes for it look to be there

Where is this?

Slovakia, election yesterday

Restrictions on L.G.B.T.Q. Depictions Rattle Hungary’s Cultural World

uh oh

Argentina?

seems like it's gonna get weird

Did he really fuck his sister

Dutch elections today, Geert Wilders' PVV in front

ffs

I'm just going to stop listening to or following the news tbh.

This what happens when the lovely, cushy centre lose

Tr**p winning flashback for this American in NL. What a disaster.

Not sure how the coalition prospects for him compare to, say, Poland's incumbent party. Could take some time anyway.

As the far-right Alternative for Germany continues to rise — and its radicalism becomes increasingly pronounced — a growing chorus of mainstream politicians is asking whether the best way to stop the party is to try to ban it.

The debate kicked off in earnest after Saskia Esken, the co-chief of the ruling Social Democratic Party (SPD), came out earlier this month in favor of discussing a ban — if only, as she put it, to “shake voters” out of their complacency.

https://www.politico.eu/article/can-a-ban-stop-the-rise-of-germanys-far-right/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=Twitter

this seems nuts to me, banning a party that is polling at 23% nationally and getting over a third of the vote in some eastern states, is there any way that this could actually "work"?

Germany’s constitution allows for bans of parties that “seek to undermine or abolish the free democratic basic order” — essentially allowing the state to use anti-democratic means to prevent an authoritarian party from corroding democracy from within.

In reality, the legal hurdle for imposing a ban is very high. Germany’s constitutional court has only done it twice: The Socialist Reich Party, an heir to the Nazi party, was banned in 1952, while the Communist Party of Germany was prohibited in 1956.

More recently, in 2017, the court ruled that a neo-Nazi party known as the National Democratic Party (NPD), while meeting the ideological criteria for a prohibition, was too fringe to ban, as it lacked popular support and therefore the power to endanger German democracy.

it seems like there's a catch-22 here where you can't ban a small party because it's too fringe to endanger democracy, but also if a party is large enough to endanger democracy you can't ban it either because it's just not practical and/or you are 'endangering democracy' by the act of banning it?

this seems nuts to me, banning a party that is polling at 23% nationally and getting over a third of the vote in some eastern states, is there any way that this could actually "work"?

Well, one way of looking at that is you could apply the same rationale to not banning the nazi party during the Weimar era.

So an apology is always good but this guy took the money at the time.

Today, first time in Polish TV, after 8 years of right-wing government, the LGBT+ activists appeared in live broadcast. I was seating there and heard journalist shaking voice. He made an apology after years of portraying LGBT-people a threat to Polish nation in the same studio.… pic.twitter.com/kOjzKrRHPf

— Bart Staszewski (@BartStaszewski) February 11, 2024

moving the overton window on LGBT acceptance in Poland surely more important at this juncture than this guy's individual morality/sincerity?

I mean, this is how it starts. Moving video, thanks xyzzzz__

Man, I spent half a year living in Poland as a 20-year-old, and I swore I would never return because of the homophobia and machismo of the culture. Hearing those words— and not needing the translation, even!— was really important to me. I sent it to my mom.

Can only echo the above, this is great to see, thanks also xyzzzz__

Chega, Portugal's far right party, have elected close to 50 MPs. The center right AD just squeezed by the center left PS and will now need a deal with one of the parties to govern - PS has already said they're not available, AD says they won't go into coalition with Chega but that doesn't mean they won't cut some sort of deal.

Actual left decimated, count them all together and they're accounting for 10% of the electorate at this stage.

Depressing.

How much of a surprise are these results?

Also, I was looking at the 2022 results, and it looks like Chega's level of support with 25-34 year olds wasn't just larger than their level of support with 55+ voters, it was double - which isn't something I would have assumed at all

Chega was predicted to hold on to its position of 3rd strongest party and to gain seats but not to this extent.

One historical particularity is in Portugal the 55+ demographic is likely to have first hand experience of having lived through a fascist dictatorship, even if only as small children.

The 55+ demographic in the post-soviet space varies quite a lot country to country in its relationships with previous soviet rule, which makes it not always that predictable what to expect with stuff like that

I also noticed last time around Chega did poorly in the northwest including what looks to be rural seats. And Faro was where they did best. (though thats presumably the whole Algarve not just the town), so it looks to be more than just a rural-urban divide? (though this is based off the much less pronounced 2022 results)

Well I won't say there aren't some fash nostalgists out there, but overall ppl who lived through a fascist dictatorship during which most of the country didn't receive primary education and lived in abject poverty, not to mention a draft for an unjust and bloody colonial war, aren't keen to see that return. Kind of strange to reach for the post-soviet spaces imo, if you want a point of comparison Spain is right next to us :)

Spain would definitely seem a more obvious comparison, but I have almost no conception of Spain at all. It wasn't to draw a direct comparison per se, but more to note that nostalgia prevalence levels for previous autocratic regimes across Europe are pretty varied - using the post-soviet spaces as an example as something that on the surface might seem uniform but vary considerably

Anyway, presuming 24 follows a similar pattern to 22, do you know why Chega appears to do worst in the North West relative to the rest of the country

I don't have a definitive answer to that but traditionally the North West is quite conservative, I would think local Chega candidates would have a tougher time establishing themselves against well connected centre right campaigns. I had a look and AD won handily there this time 'round, the only district where Chega got a majority was again Faro (which yes means the region not just the city).

Are expat “leave” Brits able to vote?

The Faro stuff is interesting, because as far as I can tell tell its the district with the most pronounced population increase, and the only district outside of Lisbon and a couple of surrounding districts to be increasing at all, with population decline elsewhere (may be looking at outdated figures)

although to Boring's point above an increase in the population doesnt necessarily mean an increase in population eligible to vote