the day after the deadline: can the union survive brexit and other deep questions

fair

(i included the graph bcz i have no idea how to interpret it)

It doesn't make any sense to me either. I don't understand what the red line is supposed to represent or how it was drawn. And I would have thought the y-axis would make more sense if it showed percentage change in the vote share between 2015 and 2017.

re the graph: it's not measuring change over time though*, it's just setting out where the constituencies landed in 2017, measured against the relevant brexit vote in 2016 -- so i think the red line simply marks the divide between lab wins (presumably above the line) and lab losses

*this would be an interesting thing to measure of course

No, I don't think it is showing wins. Looking at the other graph on the page you linked to, that would mean the Tories won a heavily 'remain' constituency with less than 20% of the vote, but lost lots of strong 'leave' constituencies while getting over 40% - doesn't seem likely. Also, you couldn't draw a line with wins above and defeats below because you could have two constituencies with identical leave scores and in one the party could win with 40% in a three-horse race and in the other they could lose with 45% in a two-horse race.

DUP don’t need a position to make any sense for them to argue it. And there’s no way that they’ll accept anything from Corbyn full stop.

Fwiw, Yougov’s post election analysis suggested that 2017 Labour voters chose the party for reasons other than Brexit, whereas it was the main reason for Tory voters. Agree it’s complex though. https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/01h35vzc5b/InternalResults_170613_Coding_WhyConLab_W.pdf

It’s also interesting to explore the dissonance between the stated reasons people voted Leave - a lot of it chalks up to anger because of austerity etc and reasons that do not equal the low-tax Singapore position of the hard Brexit crew. I would be genuinely surprised if more than 10% of Leave voters were voting for that specific arrangement.

Corbyn’s focus on worker rights and a good standard of living isn’t just a reflection of his own values - it’s aimed at that coterie of people. But obviously he’s too much of a Keir Starmer/Momentum puppet to have come up with that rationale himself...

Don't even see this customs union idea as a significant thing rn - doesn't this contradict on Diane Abbott's immigration speech from last week (basically against a more humane approach to migration in general)? 'Goods yes, people no' approach keeps business and the likes of Hoey happy, but how sustaianable is it in the long run?

Its another EP of let the Tories sort it out, as long as we make it look like we know what we'll do on day one. The manifesto and policies since the General election and of course events (Grenfell being the most significant) have meant that Brexit is just one of a number of issues. They can keep ppl at a distance on this one.

Coupled with what's happening in Europe (Italian election but also a permanently on the way out Merkel) Labour aren't the only ones facing the big questions.

Cake and eat it. That's how we ended up with Northern Ireland in the first place.

― Video reach stereo bog (Tom D.), Monday, 26 February 2018 17:13 (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

fair

― illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Monday, 26 February 2018 17:16 (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Heh you might think so but

gyac: yes i hadn't thought of that

the piece says "Each dot represents a constituency and the lines summarise the relationship between voting in the two elections" (but not how they do this): i think it's just a median line of some sort to indicate where the average lines (even when i was actually a maths student my grasp of stats was hopeless)

also i just noticed one of the authors (goodwin) is the "eat the book" guy lol

"to indicate where the average lines" by which i mean "to indicate where the average FALLS"

Conservativehome: At times he sounded like he was reading out a carefully phrased armistice deal signed between different wings of his own Party – probably because that was exactly what he was doing.

Which is probably true, but also definitely what his job is, and May's job as well except she is hilariously terrible at it.

Just to throw some more stats into the mix - this thread composed of analysis from the British Election Survey is really interesting:

Labour Leavers are loyal to Labour for a reason!
They care least about the EU and most about Health/Education/Housing. While their concern for immigration caused them to vote Leave, it is still too much of a leap to vote Conservative on the basis of Immigration and the EU. pic.twitter.com/BG60f1LygD

— Dr Kevin Cunningham (@kevcunningham) February 25, 2018

https://i.imgur.com/lBSzN2E_d.jpg

No wonder he looks crestfallen, if that poll is accurate.

Pleased to report that Ben Bradley rt-ing has now reached 50K

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DXCCqL5WAAUIlyw.jpg

Spare a thought for those of us Camden dwellers inside the congestion charge zone, for we exist and are all thinking ‘WTF Boris?’

grr arg https://twitter.com/i/moments/968202293328957440

xp
jesus, if a 10 yr old kid was talking the fatuous nonsense Boris does about very real and serious issues in the realm of adult human beings that will affect their lives and livelihoods. You might be excused for using a taser on them. But different rules apply to the FS.

People are laughing at BoJo comparison of post Brexit Ireland border issues as equivalent to those as between two London borough as his usual buffoonery. We shouldn't. 1/

— brian lucey (@brianmlucey) February 27, 2018

that was vg, one of the RoI responses I heard on the radio earlier was way too polite + restrained.

Don't taig police us

taig it or leave it. pal!

Ai of the taiger

Don't even see this customs union idea as a significant thing rn - doesn't this contradict on Diane Abbott's immigration speech from last week (basically against a more humane approach to migration in general)? 'Goods yes, people no' approach keeps business and the likes of Hoey happy, but how sustaianable is it in the long run?

It's significant because it gives Labour, Tory rebels and other parties a potential blocking vote in the House of Commons, which all of course depends on the size of the Remainer Tory rebellion. 'Goods yes people no' is not an approach that is likely to especially delight business especially when labour and skills shortages start kicking in in parts of the country, not to mention it's repellent on a moral level. Immigration might still be the issue that breaks Labour's current coalition of voters, although they might have to wait until they're in power, probably post-Brexit, for that.

Tomorrow is going to be a shitshow, isn’t it? EU publishes its “no fucking cake for you” draft, Boris‘s “sod the border” memo has been leaked and the DUP are in a tight spot.

All this and PMQs too!

this is what sparked the following reaction from Lord Heseltine: “This is the most remarkable revelation of duplicity” pic.twitter.com/IJ16bQACku

— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) February 27, 2018

well Heseltine is a complete cunt, but I like it when he correctly makes Boris look like a stupid little kid in the office.

"..even if a hard border [was] reintroduced, we would expect 95%+ of goods to pass border [without] checks" - is a reference to HMRC currently checking "4% consignments arriving in the EU at the UK external border"
- playing down the impact of a hard border in letter to PM"

"that is the position of all borders"

oh shit maplins has gone tits up

toysrus too but i don't really feel much affection for them as a business. obviously sucks for their staff though

they can now enjoy the benefits of our record high unemployment that the bbc keep referencing, sure they'll be fine.

*record low* i meant!

In the pre UC era I went through quite a few liquidations and layoffs, it never seemed like a big deal. Imagine the trepidation some people will be feeling about finally getting sucked into this enveloping UC nightmare they've been reading about.

mind if Maplin/ToysRUs were zero hour contractors, they might be already deeply in this shit.

EU publishes plan to keep Northern Ireland in customs union

Good luck UK etc

"Barnier pretty blunt there. UK said it would provide explanations of a better way to do Irish border and it hasn't."

Dan Hannen is losing his mind rn

it’s good he is a secret stalinist tho

Boris couldn't face the prospect of a Thornberry grilling and did one at PMQ.

Leavers are very angry that the EU has failed to work out how the UK might solve problems created by UK government's failure to make decisions forced on UK by UK Prime Minister's Brexit red lines.

— Rafael Behr (@rafaelbehr) February 28, 2018

the saddest otm

Theresa May appeared to accidentally commit to continue "dithering" on the Northern Ireland border today.

In an apparent slip of words, the prime minister said she was "absolutely committed to dithering" on the question of how to solve the problem of preventing a hard border with Ireland after Brexit.

I didn't think she was capable of honesty, v refreshing.

Remember when Gordon Brown used to get absolutely slaughtered for being a 'ditherer'?

nostalgia for a golden age of steady, unspectacular shitpoliticking

The SNP’s Joanna Cherry asks Lidington to confirm that what is in the draft treaty published today is “exactly” the backstop that Theresa May agreed to in December.

He says there will be no cherry picking.

bit rude

Remember when Gordon Brown used to get absolutely slaughtered for being a 'ditherer'?

Major as well. It's standard for the unpopular follow-up PM.

Although given what we've seen of TM's decision-making, dithering is probably the best she could be doing right now.

say what you want about Thatcher or Blair, if it came to making decisions that killed people they didn't dither