MENA, MENA, Tekel, Parsin (Middle East, North Africa & other Geopolitical Hotspots) 2018

So it's probably a lot more?

i don't have any special insider information but the number has been the same for two years so unless you think no one has died over the last two years

Despite war losses and emigration, the already unsustainable Syrian population has increased since 2011.

Stalin was right about "tragedies" and "statistics". Only a few who aren't there particularly care about the statistics. Still unknown actors make chemical attacks, but the numbers of victims don't matter, only pictures of victims do.

The most recent cruise missile attack benefited all political parties. Trump can claim humanitarian and anti-Russian motives. Assad and Putin can claim victimhood. It accomplished nothing on the ground.

This calls attention to the weakness in U.S. approaches to the ex-Israel Mideast. The sacrifice of Americans to support an outsized military gives them the ability to destroy grid coordinates throughout the world, but no ability to change minds.

I think the proper approach post-2011 should have been a consistent Wilsonian one, towards self-determination of all peoples. Colonial Europe made huge mistakes in the early 20th century, in creating nations with no consideration of nationality. There's no reason why Euphrates valley Kurds should owe allegiance to Damascus. As Americans, we should advocate that the dominant nationalities of regions throughout the world have their own polities, whether they be Kurds or Tibetans. This argument hasn't been made, for the obvious reason that it offends nominal U.S. allies like Turkey. So long as Israel, and its associations with the Holocaust; and Turkey, with its role in NATO, dominate U.S. thinking on the Mideast, the U.S. will choose to perpetuate historical injustices.

Personally, I'd love to see a plebecite throughout the region as to what polity (either existing or proposed) the Levant and old "Fertile Crecent" wants for themselves. Some may be tiny, but given that there are 14 UN members with less than 30k, that's okay. Let the Alawites and their allies have a nation where they don't have existential fears. Let desert Sunnis have a nation where they can do whatever desert Sunnis do. So much blood could have been saved in Iraq had the occupying powers been willing to draw new borders.

So much blood could have been saved in Iraq had the occupying powers been willing to draw new borders.

Possibly. But post-Versailles-Treaty in 1919, international treaties tend to emphasize the inviolability of national borders. The occupying powers are signatories of these treaties. These treaties also form the basis for UN resolutions condemning Israel for de facto expanding its own territory after the 1967 War.

Aside from these legalistic reasons, there are several practical reasons not to endorse the ability of whoever has the largest military from redrawing borders to suit itself.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-official-confirms-attack-in-syria-first-strike-on-live-iranian-targets/

new (possible Israeli) missile strikes on Homs and Damascus

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/947044/Syria-airstrike-Damascus-Homs-attack-anti-aircraft-Israel-Assad-Putin-USA-UK-France

uh oh

ynetnews.com: Israeli intelligence: Objectives of Western strike in Syria not achieved

The fact there were no reports of chemicals leaking following the strikes only serves to bolster assessments that the major stockpiles haven't been hit.

Israeli officials believe the United States has been intentionally underplaying its ability to operate against Syria, so it doesn't have to do so. On several occasions, Israeli officials have pointed to their American counterparts that the United States has the ability to do more for the Syrian people and were met with shrugs and bizarre assertions that this was not possible operationally.

They blame operational deficiency because it is more diplomatic than blaming Trump and his political appointees.

Obama did the same, though. Right?

https://www.mintpressnews.com/famed-war-reporter-robert-fisk-reaches-syrian-chemical-attack-site-concludes-not-gassed/

God, is he still around?

it sounds believable to me. if it's true it's a horrible illustration of the west's mixed reactions to the horrors of war vs particularly chemical horrors. bombings kick up a duststorm that suffocates civilians hiding in their shelters. welll at least he didn't use chemical weapons.

"This is the story of a town called Douma, a ravaged, stinking place of smashed apartment blocks–and of an underground clinic whose images of suffering allowed three of the Western world’s most powerful nations to bomb Syria last week. There’s even a friendly doctor in a green coat who, when I track him down in the very same clinic, cheerfully tells me that the “gas” videotape which horrified the world– despite all the doubters–is perfectly genuine.

War stories, however, have a habit of growing darker. For the same 58-year old senior Syrian doctor then adds something profoundly uncomfortable: the patients, he says, were overcome not by gas but by oxygen starvation in the rubbish-filled tunnels and basements in which they lived, on a night of wind and heavy shelling that stirred up a dust storm."

Fisk goes on to identify the doctor by name – Dr. Assim Rahaibani – which is notable given the fact that all early reporting from Douma typically relied on “unnamed doctors” and anonymous opposition sources for early claims of a chlorine gas attack (lately morphed into an unverified “mixed” chlorine-and-sarin attack).

The doctor’s testimony is consistent with that of the well-known Syrian opposition group Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which initially reported based on its own pro-rebel sourcing that heavy government bombardment of Douma city resulted in the collapse of homes and underground shelters, causing civilians in hiding to suffocate.

This looks interesting to me. But in the video (which I haven't watched) don't the victims have a white froth coming out of their mouths? Could that just be from dust?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk-saudi-arabia-war-crimes-yemen-trade-un-inquiry-united-nations-arms-weapons-a7971516.html

(N.B. am posting these links to see what you lot make of it. Am trying to work out if the narrative of 'why does Britain bomb Syria but let Saudi Arabia get away with things just as bad' is accurate at the moment)

The Douma video I've seen is of a couple dozen bodies scattered over a floor, in poses of sleep under blankets or in sleeping bags. The rescue personnel are not wearing much in the way of protective gear.

while Fisk writes some decent yarns he's a bit of a partial observer at the best of times - also doesn't speak Arabic despite having lived in the arab world for about half a century, which always gives me pause

I've assumed for the 2 and a half years I've been aware of his Beirut-based coverage, and multiple sources online attest, to Fisk's fluency in at least Lebanese, classical or broadcast Arabic.

In college, I took a class in Arab cultural history from a American immigrant from Yemen. The understanding she imparted is that classical and some extent broadcast Arabic is as far removed from the local dialects, and the local dialects further removed from each other, than Old English is from our language. So I wouldn't take the presence of local translators as evidence of non-fluency in "Arabic".

Personally, I've grown to trust Fisk, due to his coverage being so much better than that other Western journalists (from say, the NYT) during the years of the Iraq intervention. He seems far less compromised by ambition or craving for high-level access.

In 'The Great War for Civilisation' he falls out with everyone which inclines me to trust him

JustSecurity: How Jihadist Groups See Western Aggression Toward Iran

Fiqh al-waqia is the name of a 1992 treatise authored by a Sahwa enthusiast, Nasir al-Umar. In it, al-Umar outlined just how current political policy is to be derived from an understanding of scripture by utilizing a series of verses from the 30th chapter of the Quran, Al-Rum, or the Romans. For al-Umar, the Roman-Persian war of 613 AD, which withered each superpower and paved the way for the Islamic conquest of parts of North Africa, Europe and Asia, was akin to the Cold War struggle between America and the Soviet Union. This idea that Islamists could benefit and take advantage of the two superpowers fighting each other laid a basis for the eschatological narrative the Salafi jihadi movement has adopted and advanced.

I don't know, I've read Al-Rum and that's a very, very vague interpretation.

Tried to read the whole thing, but it's cherry-picking to the point of it all becoming nonsense. I don't get anything out of it.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/syria-yazidis-isis-islam-conversion-afrin-persecution-kurdish-a8310696.html

more patrick cockburn content for the "jim in vancouver is an islamophobe" file

11 days later, investigators finally allowed in

http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-syria-duma-chemical-20180421-story.html

SANA, Yemen — An airstrike on a wedding party, carried out by the Saudi-led coalition waging war in Yemen, killed more than 20 people and wounded dozens of others, including the groom, Yemeni officials said Monday.

The strike hit an isolated village in northwestern Yemen, where families had gathered to celebrate, late Sunday. After the attack, people posted online what they said were survivors collecting mangled and charred bodies

Tragic. Nothing changing in Yemen.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/23/world/middleeast/yemen-wedding-bombing.html?action=click&module=Latest&pgtype=Homepage&action=click&module=In%20Other%20News&pgtype=Homepage

In college, I took a class in Arab cultural history from a American immigrant from Yemen. The understanding she imparted is that classical and some extent broadcast Arabic is as far removed from the local dialects, and the local dialects further removed from each other, than Old English is from our language. So I wouldn't take the presence of local translators as evidence of non-fluency in "Arabic".

This sort of explains what my Urdu-speaking parent volunteer was telling me, that the "formal" version of Urdu used by city agencies and schools to try to communicate with parents is so far from the commonly spoken version that's it's illegible/unintelligible. She said it's actually easier to ask for materials in English and puzzle through it, than get them in the wrong form of Urdu.

She said they used word choices that were so formal and archaic, they wouldn't be understood by most people.

https://www.snopes.com/news/2018/04/20/critics-slam-viral-stories-claiming-douma-chemical-attack-victims-died-dust/

https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/trump-offering-saudi-arabia-bad-deal-syria-180425053232930.html

No surprise re likely response to 45 proposal that Saudi and other nations provide troops and money in Syria .

Meanwhile Human Rights Watch is unhappy with both Saudis and Houthis in Yemen

https://www.hrw.org/news/2018/04/02/saudi-arabia/yemen-houthi-missile-attacks-unlawful

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/04/iran-nuclear-deal-bolton-trump-regime-change/558785/

Canceling the nuclear deal and increasing economic pressure on Iran would further marginalize the moderates and pragmatists who favor engagement with the West, while empowering the Revolutionary Guards and their hardline allies. But before that happened (if it happened at all) the instability Washington would hope to sow in Iran could instead surface in countries where it craves stability, most immediately in Iraq. This is because the nuclear deal has provided the United States and Iran with the tacit context to cooperate in Iraq in the fight against the Islamic State. Without the deal, Iraq could once again become a battleground for U.S.- and Iran-backed forces.

Another unwelcome development that would precede a hypothetical regime change: Iran would likely quickly return to enriching uranium, this time at levels higher than the 20 percent that once so worried the international community. Admiral Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, has raised the stakes further, threatening that if the United States quits the nuclear deal, Iran could even leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty, which could mean openly pursuing nuclear weapons.

Turkey sentences over dozen journalists to decades in jail

^ Taking the "chilling effect" and dialing it up to "fatal hypothermia".

Rankings:

Harsh rulings against the country’s prominent journalists came on the same day Reporters Without Borders (RSF) labeled Turkey as “the world’s biggest prison for professional journalists.”

Western-allied nation Turkey ranked 157th in a ranking of press freedom, worse than Russia which came 148th.

Huge news in Libya. Haftar has apparently died. Significantly weakens Russia’s position there.

― Wag1 Shree Rajneesh (ShariVari), Friday, April 13, 2018 11:06 PM (one week ago)

Not quite as dead as initially claimed.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-libya-security/east-libya-commander-haftar-returning-after-treatment-in-paris-idUSKBN1HW2EN

you haftar hand it to him

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/27/libyan-general-khalifa-haftar-returns-to-benghazi-after-death-rumours

A political strategy to identify his foes

Israel says Iran breaking nuclear deal

It's almost as if Netanyahu wants to divert from the many scandals surrounding himself and brazenly take advantage of the White House being inhabited by a monkey.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-to-announce-significant-new-info-on-irans-nuclear-program/

The imminent Netanyahu announcement also comes after an airstrike in Syria early Monday, attributed by some to Israel. The strike destroyed some 200 surface-to-surface missiles and killed 16 people, including 11 Iranians, according to a New York Times report.

Iran denied that any of its soldiers were killed or that its bases had been targeted in the raids, although Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei later warned the Islamic Republic’s foes they will be “hit multiple times” if they attack Iran.

That attack came after an earlier airstrike this month on an Iranian military facility in Syria that was blamed on Israel, in which Iran acknowledged seven of its soldiers were killed and vowed to respond to the attack.

If the US pulls out of the Iran deal, and Iran doesn't agree to renegotiate (and the EU doesn't re-impose tough sanctions but only US does) then won't Iran just resume (or proceed quicker) in developing nuclear weapons? Not sure how Israel and Trump/Pompeo think what they're doing will be tougher on Iran?

They want war

I think its slightly more involved than that. Bolton and neo-cons like him believe, against all evidence, that the US military is so potent that the threat of war will either bring your opponent to heel, or else the delivery of US military might will bring them to destruction.

Trump is not a neo-con, but a con man. He believes in the power of threats and promises all on their own, and that if one set of threats and promises fails to deliver the outcome he seeks, he'll just come up with new ones until something works. I think he will be extremely squeamish about starting a war, because he knows in his heart he'd be an abject failure as a war president. I expect he'll rely on cruise missiles and bluster, reinforced by more bluster. But he will be timid about starting a full-sized war he'd have to own and manage. War would be too much work and too much risk.

P.S. I think most of the world has figured this out, but his obvious and erratic zig-zagging and instability still makes all of them very nervous.

Green Berets have been helping the Saudis.

The Green Berets, the Army’s Special Forces, deployed to the border in December, weeks after a ballistic missile fired from Yemen sailed close to Riyadh, the Saudi capital. The Saudi military said it intercepted the missile over the city’s international airport — a claim that was cast in doubt by an analysis of photos and videos of the strike. But it was enough for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to renew a longstanding request that the United States send troops to help the kingdom combat the Houthi threat.

A half-dozen officials — from the United States military, the Trump administration, and European and Arab nations — said the American commandos are training Saudi ground troops to secure their border. They also are working closely with American intelligence analysts in Najran, a city in southern Saudi Arabia that has been repeatedly attacked with rockets, to help locate Houthi missile sites within Yemen.

https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/hezbollah-allies-slated-for-major-gains-in-lebanon-elections-1.6061125

hezbollah and allies did well in lebanese elections yesterday. their involvement in syria hasn't hurt them electorally

Interesting.

But the group and its allies are not on course to win the two-thirds majority that would allow them to pass big decisions alone such as changing the constitution.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/sirens-sound-in-golan-heights-residents-urged-to-enter-shelters/

Syria apparently bombing Israeli settlements in the Golan heights in response to SAA positions near the border coming under Israeli artillery fire :/

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/iranian-forces-in-syria-fire-20-rockets-at-israeli-army-outposts-on-golan-heights-1.6073938

israel says it was IRGC Quds force that launched missiles

if i were to turn on some liberal news network i rn i would be faced with stormy daniels or something obv lol