MENA, MENA, Tekel, Parsin (Middle East, North Africa & other Geopolitical Hotspots) 2018

The Douma video I've seen is of a couple dozen bodies scattered over a floor, in poses of sleep under blankets or in sleeping bags. The rescue personnel are not wearing much in the way of protective gear.

while Fisk writes some decent yarns he's a bit of a partial observer at the best of times - also doesn't speak Arabic despite having lived in the arab world for about half a century, which always gives me pause

I've assumed for the 2 and a half years I've been aware of his Beirut-based coverage, and multiple sources online attest, to Fisk's fluency in at least Lebanese, classical or broadcast Arabic.

In college, I took a class in Arab cultural history from a American immigrant from Yemen. The understanding she imparted is that classical and some extent broadcast Arabic is as far removed from the local dialects, and the local dialects further removed from each other, than Old English is from our language. So I wouldn't take the presence of local translators as evidence of non-fluency in "Arabic".

Personally, I've grown to trust Fisk, due to his coverage being so much better than that other Western journalists (from say, the NYT) during the years of the Iraq intervention. He seems far less compromised by ambition or craving for high-level access.

In 'The Great War for Civilisation' he falls out with everyone which inclines me to trust him

JustSecurity: How Jihadist Groups See Western Aggression Toward Iran

Fiqh al-waqia is the name of a 1992 treatise authored by a Sahwa enthusiast, Nasir al-Umar. In it, al-Umar outlined just how current political policy is to be derived from an understanding of scripture by utilizing a series of verses from the 30th chapter of the Quran, Al-Rum, or the Romans. For al-Umar, the Roman-Persian war of 613 AD, which withered each superpower and paved the way for the Islamic conquest of parts of North Africa, Europe and Asia, was akin to the Cold War struggle between America and the Soviet Union. This idea that Islamists could benefit and take advantage of the two superpowers fighting each other laid a basis for the eschatological narrative the Salafi jihadi movement has adopted and advanced.

I don't know, I've read Al-Rum and that's a very, very vague interpretation.

Tried to read the whole thing, but it's cherry-picking to the point of it all becoming nonsense. I don't get anything out of it.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/syria-yazidis-isis-islam-conversion-afrin-persecution-kurdish-a8310696.html

more patrick cockburn content for the "jim in vancouver is an islamophobe" file

11 days later, investigators finally allowed in

http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-syria-duma-chemical-20180421-story.html

SANA, Yemen — An airstrike on a wedding party, carried out by the Saudi-led coalition waging war in Yemen, killed more than 20 people and wounded dozens of others, including the groom, Yemeni officials said Monday.

The strike hit an isolated village in northwestern Yemen, where families had gathered to celebrate, late Sunday. After the attack, people posted online what they said were survivors collecting mangled and charred bodies

Tragic. Nothing changing in Yemen.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/23/world/middleeast/yemen-wedding-bombing.html?action=click&module=Latest&pgtype=Homepage&action=click&module=In%20Other%20News&pgtype=Homepage

In college, I took a class in Arab cultural history from a American immigrant from Yemen. The understanding she imparted is that classical and some extent broadcast Arabic is as far removed from the local dialects, and the local dialects further removed from each other, than Old English is from our language. So I wouldn't take the presence of local translators as evidence of non-fluency in "Arabic".

This sort of explains what my Urdu-speaking parent volunteer was telling me, that the "formal" version of Urdu used by city agencies and schools to try to communicate with parents is so far from the commonly spoken version that's it's illegible/unintelligible. She said it's actually easier to ask for materials in English and puzzle through it, than get them in the wrong form of Urdu.

She said they used word choices that were so formal and archaic, they wouldn't be understood by most people.

https://www.snopes.com/news/2018/04/20/critics-slam-viral-stories-claiming-douma-chemical-attack-victims-died-dust/

https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/trump-offering-saudi-arabia-bad-deal-syria-180425053232930.html

No surprise re likely response to 45 proposal that Saudi and other nations provide troops and money in Syria .

Meanwhile Human Rights Watch is unhappy with both Saudis and Houthis in Yemen

https://www.hrw.org/news/2018/04/02/saudi-arabia/yemen-houthi-missile-attacks-unlawful

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/04/iran-nuclear-deal-bolton-trump-regime-change/558785/

Canceling the nuclear deal and increasing economic pressure on Iran would further marginalize the moderates and pragmatists who favor engagement with the West, while empowering the Revolutionary Guards and their hardline allies. But before that happened (if it happened at all) the instability Washington would hope to sow in Iran could instead surface in countries where it craves stability, most immediately in Iraq. This is because the nuclear deal has provided the United States and Iran with the tacit context to cooperate in Iraq in the fight against the Islamic State. Without the deal, Iraq could once again become a battleground for U.S.- and Iran-backed forces.

Another unwelcome development that would precede a hypothetical regime change: Iran would likely quickly return to enriching uranium, this time at levels higher than the 20 percent that once so worried the international community. Admiral Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, has raised the stakes further, threatening that if the United States quits the nuclear deal, Iran could even leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty, which could mean openly pursuing nuclear weapons.

Turkey sentences over dozen journalists to decades in jail

^ Taking the "chilling effect" and dialing it up to "fatal hypothermia".

Rankings:

Harsh rulings against the country’s prominent journalists came on the same day Reporters Without Borders (RSF) labeled Turkey as “the world’s biggest prison for professional journalists.”

Western-allied nation Turkey ranked 157th in a ranking of press freedom, worse than Russia which came 148th.

Huge news in Libya. Haftar has apparently died. Significantly weakens Russia’s position there.

― Wag1 Shree Rajneesh (ShariVari), Friday, April 13, 2018 11:06 PM (one week ago)

Not quite as dead as initially claimed.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-libya-security/east-libya-commander-haftar-returning-after-treatment-in-paris-idUSKBN1HW2EN

you haftar hand it to him

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/27/libyan-general-khalifa-haftar-returns-to-benghazi-after-death-rumours

A political strategy to identify his foes

Israel says Iran breaking nuclear deal

It's almost as if Netanyahu wants to divert from the many scandals surrounding himself and brazenly take advantage of the White House being inhabited by a monkey.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-to-announce-significant-new-info-on-irans-nuclear-program/

The imminent Netanyahu announcement also comes after an airstrike in Syria early Monday, attributed by some to Israel. The strike destroyed some 200 surface-to-surface missiles and killed 16 people, including 11 Iranians, according to a New York Times report.

Iran denied that any of its soldiers were killed or that its bases had been targeted in the raids, although Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei later warned the Islamic Republic’s foes they will be “hit multiple times” if they attack Iran.

That attack came after an earlier airstrike this month on an Iranian military facility in Syria that was blamed on Israel, in which Iran acknowledged seven of its soldiers were killed and vowed to respond to the attack.

If the US pulls out of the Iran deal, and Iran doesn't agree to renegotiate (and the EU doesn't re-impose tough sanctions but only US does) then won't Iran just resume (or proceed quicker) in developing nuclear weapons? Not sure how Israel and Trump/Pompeo think what they're doing will be tougher on Iran?

They want war

I think its slightly more involved than that. Bolton and neo-cons like him believe, against all evidence, that the US military is so potent that the threat of war will either bring your opponent to heel, or else the delivery of US military might will bring them to destruction.

Trump is not a neo-con, but a con man. He believes in the power of threats and promises all on their own, and that if one set of threats and promises fails to deliver the outcome he seeks, he'll just come up with new ones until something works. I think he will be extremely squeamish about starting a war, because he knows in his heart he'd be an abject failure as a war president. I expect he'll rely on cruise missiles and bluster, reinforced by more bluster. But he will be timid about starting a full-sized war he'd have to own and manage. War would be too much work and too much risk.

P.S. I think most of the world has figured this out, but his obvious and erratic zig-zagging and instability still makes all of them very nervous.

Green Berets have been helping the Saudis.

The Green Berets, the Army’s Special Forces, deployed to the border in December, weeks after a ballistic missile fired from Yemen sailed close to Riyadh, the Saudi capital. The Saudi military said it intercepted the missile over the city’s international airport — a claim that was cast in doubt by an analysis of photos and videos of the strike. But it was enough for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to renew a longstanding request that the United States send troops to help the kingdom combat the Houthi threat.

A half-dozen officials — from the United States military, the Trump administration, and European and Arab nations — said the American commandos are training Saudi ground troops to secure their border. They also are working closely with American intelligence analysts in Najran, a city in southern Saudi Arabia that has been repeatedly attacked with rockets, to help locate Houthi missile sites within Yemen.

https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/hezbollah-allies-slated-for-major-gains-in-lebanon-elections-1.6061125

hezbollah and allies did well in lebanese elections yesterday. their involvement in syria hasn't hurt them electorally

Interesting.

But the group and its allies are not on course to win the two-thirds majority that would allow them to pass big decisions alone such as changing the constitution.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/sirens-sound-in-golan-heights-residents-urged-to-enter-shelters/

Syria apparently bombing Israeli settlements in the Golan heights in response to SAA positions near the border coming under Israeli artillery fire :/

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/iranian-forces-in-syria-fire-20-rockets-at-israeli-army-outposts-on-golan-heights-1.6073938

israel says it was IRGC Quds force that launched missiles

if i were to turn on some liberal news network i rn i would be faced with stormy daniels or something obv lol

I don't think Iran or Israel want a bigger conflict, so these little skirmishes will keep happening and then calm down. Although Israel says Iran had never before attacked in the Golan Heights like this.

Iran's economy is still bad, but they remain determined to maintain their international military presence (no matter the economic cost).

yeah they're just flexing their muscles.

seems like Iran might be susceptible to similar economic pressures that undermined the USSR, in the event of an expensive arms race. over-extended, with an internally crippled economy etc.

but who knows, really.

Yes, susceptible to a bunch of hardline nutcases taking over.

More than 20 killed and 900 injured as Palestinians make major move at Gaza-Israel fence ahead of US Embassy ceremony in Jerusalem, according to Gaza’s Ministry of Health https://t.co/fY9ILqY3BP https://t.co/F2ZFgBjtO4

— Breaking News (@BreakingNews) May 14, 2018

Thanks Trump!

At least 28 killed by snipers now.

Madness.

Up to 37, including one paramedic treating the wounded.

Not sure the censure from European politicians is going to be any less ambiguous than last month but shooting eight journalists probably won’t go down well with sections of the press.

Also note the very passive "die" in the headline. Palestinians haven't died en masse, they've been shot and killed pic.twitter.com/PwHJrliSQ7

— Josie Ensor (@Josiensor) May 14, 2018

What a bonehead move from the US, because if and when the embassy is attacked, who are we going to war with? So short sighted. They should have opened up the Israeli embassy in Iran or something.

Trumpies are convinced it will be short-term anger and then blow over, and a long-term win for the right-wing. Ugh.

Thoughts on this? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/14/cleric-moqtadr-al-sadr-who-fought-us-takes-surprise-lead-in-iraq-elections

Huh. Had not been following Iraqi politics, this was news to me:

He portrays himself as an Iraqi nationalist and last year met Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia, who is staunchly opposed to Iran.

So is he actually getting Saudi support? "Met" is an ambiguous word there.

Candace Owens and Charlie Kirk are at the embassy opening for some fucking reason

Plus:

Romney criticised the choice of a man who has said all Jews will go to hell to deliver a blessing in Israel. Jeffress is the leader of a Dallas-area Baptist church and a spiritual adviser to Trump. He has been criticised for calling Islam and Mormonism “heresy from the pit of hell” and saying Jews “can’t be saved”. As reported by dallasnews.com, he also said Islam is “a religion that promotes paedophilia”.

Romney, a Mormon, wrote on Twitter on Sunday: “Robert Jeffress says ‘you can’t be saved by being a Jew’ and ‘Mormonism is a heresy from the pit of hell’. He has said the same about Islam. Such a religious bigot should not be giving the prayer that opens the United States embassy in Jerusalem.”

from the Guardian

x-post, for what it's worth , Juan Cole on Al-Sadr back in 2017

Inasmuch as he is a hard line Shiite and heads his own hard line militia, the “Peace Brigades,” he might not have come first to mind if you were thinking about Iraqis that the militantly fundamentalist Wahhabi monarchy in Saudi Arabia might invite to the kingdom.

In fact, despite his Shiite fundamentalism, al-Sadr is politically even-handed in ways that might appeal to Riyadh. Although Western analysts have repeatedly pegged him wrongly as a cat’s paw of Iran, in fact al-Sadr is an Iraqi nativist whose movement resents the influence of Iran on Iraqi Shiism.

Al-Sadr has all right relations with Iran and did flee there for studies in 2007 when Gen. David Petraeus tried to have him arrested as a sectarian religious leader responsible for deaths of Sunnis. But he has tended to maintain his independence from Tehran’s ayatollahs.

Al-Sadr opposes the tendency to see the Shiite militias in Iraq as a stand alone force, sort of a National Guard (a line pushed by Iran) and rather wants them absorbed into the regular army.

Al-Sadr opposes Iranian intervention in Syria (and, indeed, all foreign intervention in Syria, including that of Russia).

Last March, al-Sadr called for formal peace talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran, since those two countries are on all but a war footing. Al-Sadr argues that some face to face summits among leaders of the two countries could tamp down sectarian tensions and lead to a new era of good feeling in the Middle East.

Saudi Arabia has lost its struggle with Iran over the past 15 years. Iraq went from a Saudi asset under Saddam Hussein to an Iranian asset after the Shiites won the parliamentary elections in 2005 and after.

https://www.juancole.com/2017/07/saudis-looking-channel.html

52 dead, 2400 wounded. A great day.