"oh you don't get me I'm the end of the union": lol brexit is how we're all gonna die

new thread new may vote

UK, RU OK?

good luck, UK

UK DK

fuck ye ye had it comin 800 years imo

i. how much will she lose by ?
ii. is there any margin which would simply necessitate her standing down automatically ?
iii. will labour table a NCM straight away tomorrow ?

wait is she actually expected to lose this vote?

yes - heavily

very good and very normal parliament

Labour MP Tulip Siddiq delays giving birth so she can vote on Brexit dealhttps://t.co/zm1opNF55M pic.twitter.com/gcqbEDP4RN

— Mirror Politics (@MirrorPolitics) January 14, 2019

the government's marquee policy - its only policy - and they're about to get a doing

I can't imagine her straight up resigning as a result of this vote even if the whole of parliament went against her tbh

Sky News estimate May will lose the vote on her Brexit deal by 225 votes. The largest ever House of Commons defeat by some distance. pic.twitter.com/kgpDoL0tjG

— Adam Bienkov (@AdamBienkov) January 14, 2019

who the fuck is scraeming "RESIGN" in the house. show yourself, coward. i will never resign

estimate May will lose the vote on her Brexit deal by 225 votes.

this outcome would never merit that harsh descriptor: "nebulous"

ii. is there any margin which would simply necessitate her standing down automatically ?

Normally there’d be some sense of shame but like...

Do tory leaders ever have a sense of shame?

Send in Frank Field, he got Thatcher to stand down last time.

Frank Field has been sent to resyk iirc

Can we get back to why Tulip Siddiq is wearing a t-shirt with a picture of her on it?

May will undoubtedly just shake her head and explain that this makes the job all the harder, not angry but quite disappointed.

clueing in the squares itt:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DwzCRx7WkAA2-yK.jpg:large

That is indeed quite a neck on him.

do I even need to ask if the strawbs are all hardcore brexiters?

bring on the grave new world

So the sequence is:

May loses Brexit vote by massive margin -> does not resign -> Labour tables No Confidence vote in the govt -> govt narrowly survives it.

Then what?

Oh yeah she comes back with a new proposal within three days and MPs debate it for the shortest possible time.

Or: May loses Brexit vote by massive margin -> does not resign -> Labour does NOT table No Confidence vote in the govt -> May comes back with new proposal (??) within 3 days -> it is also voted down -> Labour tables No Confidence vote -> govt must lose, as it has played every last card? -> GE -> Request for extension -> Malta says no, with hilarious consequences

good luck, UK

god someone already made that obvious post ages ago fuck

discipline of the Labour MPs in voting "no" here is pretty respectable imo

Brexiteer Conservative MP Desmond Swayne calls on Theresa May to suspend parliament until April in order to "guarantee Brexit."

— Adam Bienkov (@AdamBienkov) January 14, 2019

xpost to gyac on the other thread

saw this live and it was an attempt at 'humour' fwiw

So the sequence is:

May loses Brexit vote by massive margin -> does not resign -> Labour tables No Confidence vote in the govt -> govt narrowly survives it.

Then what?

before we all die obv

discipline of the Labour MPs in voting "no" here is pretty respectable imo

This is their stance anyway but all the polling on this shows them getting hammered if they vote for the deal.

if everybody voted how their constituency voted how would that pan out?

New: Corbyn set for confidence motion straight after tomorrow's vote
We're told plan is:
- Raise point of order minutes after result (if deal is rejected)
- Hold confidence vote after PMQs on Wednesday
- Heading to Amber Rudd's constituency Thurs (election starting gun?)

— Harry Yorke (@HarryYorke1) January 14, 2019

xp majority for the government

"Leave polled the most strongly in 270 counting areas, with Remain coming first in 129."

Corbyn's team not confirming or denying, but tonight Labour MPs told confidence motion coming very soon and they won't have to wait long.

As before, Labour will not 100% commit to it in case vote is closer than expected. (some suggestions May could lose by just 50-100 votes)

— Harry Yorke (@HarryYorke1) January 14, 2019

fwiw Corbyn was already coming to Hastings on Thurs, that's been planned for a while, "policy development conference" apparently

if everybody voted how their constituency voted how would that pan out?

What do you mean?

Yeah idgi, nobody voted on this deal yet

Everyone, leave or remain, hates the deal.

apart from Sir Edward Leigh.

discipline of the Labour MPs in voting "no" here is pretty respectable imo
This is their stance anyway but all the polling on this shows them getting hammered if they vote for the deal.
if everybody voted how their constituency voted how would that pan out?

Jim Fitzpatrick (Lab, Tower Hamlets, overwhelming Remain constituency, campaigned for Remain) has told his constituents he'll most probably vote for the deal as the sure way to avoid No Deal (he said on PM tonight).

Oh yeah she comes back with a new proposal within three days and MPs debate it for the shortest possible time.

Yesterday I saw a woman with a Hessian Bag with an EU flag on it, and I thought oh look one of those FBPE lads

But on closer inspection I realized it said "Brexit means Exit" one one side, and "Leave Now" on the other, in an unassuming almost floral font, blue and yellow everywhere. not a single red white and blue bulldog to be seen

the radical centre
https://mobile.twitter.com/Lokivankenobi1/status/1084959382310408193

lol, even on btec level design courses they tell 1st year students "no swastikas, no penises".

"30's party" lol stfu!

If the next logo doesn't strongly resemble a jizzing cock then I'm demanding my membership fee back.

"30's party" cracks me up

What logo?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dw6MyoeWwAIg0og?format=jpg&name=large

Begging petition
Good fun time placards
The start of the county cricket season

https://www.hermitary.com/literature/moomin/muskrat-05.jpg

Neil O’ Brien and the way he might look at you.

What is there in uselessness to cause you distress?

Watching May say that the petition process has been monitored in case of “fraudulent signatures”.

Shameful q & a there at pmqs about the armed services.

“My son is the 4th generation to serve, can the Prime Minister assure him that if he is on an operational tour and mistakes are made and soldiers lose control and things go horribly wrong that he will not, fifty years later, be dragged out of bed at 6am and arrested?”

Just stick to killing the lessers and you’ll probably get away with it, that’s what the government is signalling with it’s disgraceful statements about this.

‘prime minister, can you please confirm that soldiers will continue to remain free from the consequences of war crimes’

i didn't join a volunteer army to be held accountable for my actions in service ffs

Can’t believe you can’t just kill the paddies without someone getting mad about it, it’s PC gone maaaaaaad

Cultural Marxism strikes again.

well if that's what it means certainly im agin it

cultural marxism means killing paddies and the more paddies you kill the more culturally marxist it is

dominic cummings on the erg lot is pretty full-on:

Those of you in the narcissist-delusional subset of the ERG who have spent the last three years scrambling for the 810 Today slot while spouting gibberish about trade and the law across SW1 — i.e exactly the contemptible behaviour that led to your enforced marginalisation during the referendum and your attempt to destroy Vote Leave — you are also in the pirate category. You were useful idiots for Remain during the campaign and with every piece of bullshit from Bill Cash et al you have helped only Remain for three years. Remember how you WELCOMED the backstop as a ‘triumph’ in December 2017 when it was obvious to everybody who knew what was going on — NOT the Cabinet obviously — that this effectively ended the ‘negotiations’? Remember how Bernard Jenkin wrote on ConHome that he didn’t have to ‘ruin his weekend’ reading the document to know it was another success for the natural party of government — bringing to mind very clearly how during the referendum so many of you guys were too busy shooting or skiing or chasing girls to do any actual work. You should be treated like a metastasising tumour and excised from the UK body politic.

xp Do rice paddies count?

That's cultural Maoism

https://www.ft.com/content/0037f404-4fea-11e9-9c76-bf4a0ce37d49

worth remembering in the context of "realist" assessments of what the establishment war on an anti-austerity government in the UK will look like

bringing to mind very clearly how during the referendum so many of you guys were too busy shooting or skiing or chasing girls to do any actual work. You should be treated like a metastasising tumour and excised from the UK body politic.

Remember how Bernard Jenkin wrote on ConHome that he didn’t have to ‘ruin his weekend’ reading the document to know it was another success for the natural party of government

no, i really don't

Plax, can you excerpt some of that FT piece?

Asking the PM to give assurances on things 50 years ahead when she can't assure on things 50 minutes ahead.

https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2017/12/bernard-jenkin-so-you-want-to-know-what-the-eu-deal-means-my-advice-is-find-a-good-lawyer.html

Now, I was always rather scornful of Ken Clarke’s blasé admission that he never bothered to read the Maastricht Treaty before it was signed – but let’s face it, we always rather admire his chutzpah. I do not claim the same kind of mantle, but I confess I did not wreck my whole weekend trying to understand every nuance of this obscure text.

Portugal posts lowest budget deficit in 45 years of democracy
Shortfall down from bailout level of 11.2% of GDP in 2011 to 0.5% today
Pedestrians walk along Augusta street in the Baixa district of Lisbon, Portugal. © Bloomberg

Portugal’s budget deficit fell to 0.5 per cent of gross domestic product in 2018, the lowest level since the country returned to democracy 45 years ago, the National Statistics Institute (INE) said on Tuesday.

Mário Centeno, finance minister in the Socialist government, said the reduction demonstrated that Portugal had “gained credibility” and “shown Europe that there is an alternative [to austerity].”

The deficit has fallen from 11.2 per cent of GDP in 2011 when Portugal negotiated a €78bn bailout with the EU and the International Monetary Fund. President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa said a zero deficit was possible this year.

The minority government, which is supported in parliament by the communist and radical left, initially budgeted for a deficit of 1.1 per cent of GDP in 2018, but subsequently revised its projection downwards to 0.7 per cent.

Mr Centeno is targeting a deficit of 0.2 per cent of GDP this year.

The reduction in 2018 was mainly driven by an increase in government revenues, including taxes and social security contributions reflecting economic growth and rising employment, INE said.

The revenue increase saw the tax burden rise to a record level of 35.4 per cent of GDP, up from 34.4 per cent in 2017.

António Costa, the prime minister, described the drop in the deficit to a record low as “historic”. The reduction was “not the result of cutting spending or increasing taxes”, he said, “but of policies that have restored confidence”.

Mr Costa came to office in late 2015, after an inconclusive general election, promising to “turn the page on austerity”.

lol formatting fail sorry

i thought i knew what i was doing

Eesh, this was the only video I could find of the pmq question I paraphrased upthread

If you ever had any doubt that we live in a fascist country, here is Tory MP asking the PM to guarantee that his son be allowed to commit actual literal murder without having to worry about consequences pic.twitter.com/sa7MPe3Z0Q

— ACAB Rees-Mogg (@jelly_pack) March 27, 2019

What a normal person. Is this one of his 18k blog posts about how everyone but him is wrong?

you guessed it!

ACAB rees-mogg

👀

haha

follow-up tweet is god level too

Would my right honorable friend the Prime Minister agree, that when we declare war on Ireland, my beautiful sons, Jolyause and Chaunssey, should be allowed to indiscriminately exterminate redheads, unburdened by petty legality?

[HOUSE OF COMMONS ERUPTS IN STANDING OVATION]

— ACAB Rees-Mogg (@jelly_pack) March 27, 2019

I did laugh at that, helped with the sick taste in my mouth somewhat!

Dom Cums also being held in contempt by/of parliament today, it makes no real difference to his life afaict but he’s not exactly someone who likes being told what to do or that he’s wrong.

some chat abt that ft article, the portuguese economy and how instructive an example it might be in the euro politics thread - Rolling European Politics Thread

The government will apparently be whipping against the business motion on the indicative votes - which means against the idea that the house will hold the second runoff vote on Monday - so nothing would come of this at all.

the party of no

LABOUR BREXIT LATEST: Jeremy Corbyn's spokesman explains that the party only supports a referendum on a "damaging Tory Brexit". If Labour takes power, he says, it will negotiate a better Brexit, which won't need a referendum.

There's that coherent Brexit position again which has absolutely nothing of the arrogance of May's deal.

Conservative party to be bankrupted by Brexit, too perfect https://www.ft.com/content/8e553444-4fe6-11e9-b401-8d9ef1626294

seems like that approach (1) contradicts what they’ve been saying for a while, (2) would demotivate its activists and (3) alienate a large percentage of its base

xp

That spokesman is always coming out with shit like that.

the negotiations are finished you dipshits, give it up

yes spokesman #1 did say something similar when there was the initial big brouhaha about labour’s Shift Towards Referendum

It doesn't actually contradict what they've been saying before, Corbyn hasn't taken Labour's own Brexit proposal off the table at any point.

I mean the indicative votes haven’t happened yet either.

If a GE was called tomorrow, Labour would campaign on taking Britain out of the EU, not a second referendum. But they'll whip for a referendum if it means defeating May's deal and preventing No Deal.

I don't personally agree it's the right course, but that's been the case all along and people have been selectively misreading it depending on what they want to believe.

"they'll whip for a referendum" - but what are the options on this putative ref2? where i get stuck is, how could a referendum both prevent May's deal AND no deal AND also not have revoke/remain as an option? barry gardiner has said only today that labour would not back a referendum that offered a choice between may's deal and remain. because that would imply that "we would allow a bad deal as long as the public had the opportunity to reject Brexit altogether. ... The Labour party is not a remain party"

New thread please?

Seizing back control: The ILX lol brexit is how we're all gonna die thread.

Bye thread, we’ve had some good times & some where I think I was implied to be a tankie?

(Posting here just to confuse Ned)

rip big man, heaven needed the thread before we had the chance to get this sorted

u will live on forever. cant believe it. I wanna run to u

this is absolute mockery of the people's will

hey thread do u need picking up in the morning pal