Who will be next Tory leader?

I believe it is imperative that everyone on ilx tells any tory they speak to that they "might actually be tempted to vote tory if rory stewart was leader", it is the sort of meddling mind game that our nation is built upon

shit I forgot to include suella braverman

won't be happy if we end up with a crabb running the whelk stall tbh

You forgot Jo Johnson too, could see him put to the people because that’s how much the other MPs hate his brother. I voted J Hunt because he’s been submarining towards it ever since he went to the Foreign Office.

JJ is not popular enough to be a remainy unity candidate nor enough of a headbanger to peep off votes elsewhere.

Hunt seems accurate.

j hunt for red october

May is in the job for another 20 years at least, let's not kid outselves

working at the limits of my tory comprehension here but as I see it breaking down like this:

obvious contenders

rudd (shaky majority but feels like a compromise candidate), hancock (osborne 2.0), gove (profound goon w/ poss ERG support), hunt (profound goon w/ 'compromise appeal'), mordaunt (named after a frigate), the saj (proven ability to pose in the strong and stable stance), truss (profound goon w/ cheese patriot appeal)

big beasts who are wounded and probably too unpopular to make it through to the final vote

johnson, mogg, davis

worst case scenarios

tier 1: johnson, raab, el saj, hunt, patel, mogg
tier 2: cleverly, fox, hancock, davis, gove

best case scenario

http://www.rorystewart.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/1_123125_122986_2241624_2250269_2252166_100430_dis_stewarttn.jpg.CROP_.original-original.jpg

My instinctive choice was J-Hunt too, he exudes the bovine, complacent evil of those born into wealth that never fails to appeal to Tory types.

It's going to be B-Jo isn't it?

B-Jo and Rudd are both in danger of seat loss at the next GE

It's going to be Hunt.

In 2012, he married an American NGO executive, Shoshana Clark,[157] with whom he had his first child in November 2014, which he delivered himself in the absence of medical assistance.

rory stewart is one of those high-functioning world-striding etonian types that you can't help but be a tiny bit impressed by now and again. would certainly be better than the rest of these mini-brained howlers

it's tough as a hunt hater but mb now is the opportunity to waste his time at the top

pic.twitter.com/jxTx345S6t

— Hannah Al-Othman (@HannahAlOthman) March 28, 2019

bring 👏🏻back👏🏻Pickles👏🏻

xps Rory Stewart is bad not good

https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/24964/rory_stewart/penrith_and_the_border/votes#welfare
https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/24964/rory_stewart/penrith_and_the_border/votes#health
https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/24964/rory_stewart/penrith_and_the_border/votes#education

etc. etc. ad nauseam

Lol delivering a baby to own the NHS is it now

tug me daddy

Neil S - That monkey is my current profile photo on (something) and that tweet gave me a bit of a shock

hah sorry!

yeesh, those welfare votes especially :/ well obviously they're all evil bastards but...idk, some of them can at least deliver a baby haha

Yeah we all know how this goes by now - big beasts tear each other apart or mobilise blocking coalitions. I would imagine that Remain Tories would be pragmatic enough to only put one candidate forward and whoever that is probably stands a decent chance of making the final two as the Brexit vote is split eight ways.

As far as the members themselves go, the most Brexity-sounding one on the members' ballot will win unless it's someone who, like Andrea Leadsom, is so obviously a disaster area that the unelectability thing kicks in.

No one is taking Jeremy Hunt particularly seriously as a candidate, no one has a strategy for stopping him, and he's a Remainer-turned-Leaver who could appeal to all sides. Seems like a decent bet. Lidington as well maybe because hardly anyone knows who he is.

Yeah, Hunt for exactly all those reasons

Maybe Hunt's record on the NHS would come back to bite him if we are talking GE.

Lidington is being positioned by people who don’t know anything about him as a moderate, boring safe pair of hands type, but he voted against legalising gay marriage and favours restrictions on abortion.

it might be good to have hunt in charge and fight the election on the nhs

It absolutely would come back and bite him; he’s also one of those ‘here’s my pamphlet about privatising the NHS!’ types.

Mordaunt.

It’s Tug time:

Ex-forces
Good Establishment stock
Hasn’t done anything notable to annoy anyone
Makes a vaguely photogenic pair with his wife
Same sort of indeterminate age as Cameron was when he came through

Forces background balances out wife’s Frenchness

When was the last time a Tory with a weirdish surname was leader? Also an excellent new slang term for wanking.

tug me ‘til I VONC

in the ongoing spirit of conciliation with our right-wing brethren i am now determined to find out if there's a single tory whose votes on stuff like welfare and health and whatnot are not entirely abysmal

this will be the most futile exercise in the history of ilx obv

Leaving aside SV’s inexplicable love for Tugendhat (COD of his dad?), Tugendhat himself is half French through his mother and a dual citizen.

On the one hand, he speaks several languages (incl Arabic) and on the other he sometimes tweets stuff like this:

Begum’s crime is betrayal. Her choice-even if not violent-to side with an enemy who wants to kill us is wrong. She’s not alone. Others have done the same, siding with enemies. We need to update our treason law. Read my ideas for @Policy_Exchange here: https://t.co/XQeZm4JeK8

— Tom Tugendhat (@TomTugendhat) February 19, 2019

xox if there was, they wouldn’t be a Tory

I suspect Lidington's wikipedia page had a few hits over the weekend when he was the first name rumoured for the interim prime minister.

gyac sort out your autocorrect lol

lol just remembered Grant Shapps

I think Tugendhat would be the weirdest surname of any Tory leader (it's Austrian?)

Tugendhat studied Theology at the University of Bristol, before doing a Masters in Islamic studies at Gonville and Caius College, Cambridge and learning Arabic in Yemen.

maybe I meant it imago, what do you think of THAT

I think most of the old guard Tories are going to think ‘Lord Chief Justice’ or ‘Baron’ when they hear Tugendhat, rather than it being an odd name.

The two things that made Cameron a winner with people who didn’t really agree with him, wrt the grass roots, were that he was recognised as ‘one of us’ or a social superior and he was the kind of vaguely smart, successful person they would like their granddaughter to marry. Get through the first stage of selection by the party as an inoffensive anyone-but-x candidate and he has the laity locked down.

i feel warmly greeted back into the fold of persona grata xox

*personarum gratarum if we're going to give the right case and number. pip pip time for tea!

show trials for some, xox for others.

I think Mordaunt is an underrated pick. Military background, woman, cabinet experience, Leaver, grassroots love her. If it’s her and Hunt in the runoff, she’d take it.

She interviews very badly. Either comes across as clueless or malicious depending on the topic.

forget me and xyzzzz, this is the zesty content ogmor cried out for

Related to Angela Lansbury, though, could be a secret weapon with the demographic.

xp

If I was related to any Tories, I could make an educated guess about how she might poll with their voters. Alas.

She is obviously very right wing, but that’s who the members want to vote for, and has a voting record that’s progressive on enough social issues that wavering wettish voters will pull in with her. I could see her winning. And a third woman? That’s another thing to bash Labour for.

She’s also got some gorgeous cats.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/15/penny-mordaunt-brings-her-own-cat-to-westminster-office-in-order/

xp

not a chance!

Saturation, I reckons.

if Starmer was the most left wing candidate the job would be really fucked, otherwise the membership wouldn't go for him over a Corbyn/McD candidate.

Starmer is my MP. He could win (am dreading people advocating for Yvette Cooper) and he’d shred at the Despatch Box.

YC’s moment has passed I think. Tom Watson will 100% position himself as the moderate who tried to hold back Corbyn & take all the blue Labour votes.

My preference is Laura Pidcock, but she needs more experience.

make a thread!

How would Corbyn go? ;-)

After handing over a supermajority to his successor, AN MP.

Corbyn is practically immortal! Unless there is a complete overhaul of the leadership voting rules or a massive upturn inProgress membership. T Wat is no serious contender, nor any other tories in disguise.

nobly recognising his service is through and handing a ceremonial toy tank to laura pidcock/whoever

tbh i don't think corbyn should go anywhere except in a worst-case scenario

i was mousing over labour constituencies recently and looking at each MP's name, thinking 'some of these people must have more substance than backbench dross'

i look forward to heralding the premiership of Alex Sobel, our first gamer PM

good on environment, jewish so they can't use the antisemitism thing, h8s nukes, i'm listening

All of Watson’s enemies will spend a lot of time and effort on things like ‘eh, £500k from Son Of BUF?’ and pointing out that there’s never been a leader he hasn’t tried to back-knife.

Omg yes! He’s a gamer & often does late night shitposting on twitter. He’s Co-Op though possibly a bit sus.

Both the Lauras (Smith & Pidcock) are v good and v left. Think Dan Carden will also have strong left support cos of his ties to the unions.

Its not one book. There are over 30 books on Middle Earth. Tolkien was probably the finest philologist this country has ever produced

— (((Alex Sobel MP))) (@alexsobel) March 27, 2019

:'D

As Miliband proved, the gutter press would just go back to dog-whistle AS and he’d not necessarily gain Jewish voters who started leaving when EM made it policy to recognise Palestinians.

sobel is also a supporter of the west papuan independence movement, has completed final fantasy 7 and is a scott walker fan, how greedy can we get?

Sobeltum now imo.

corbyn has been going on 15K runs wth

jewish so they can't use the antisemitism thing

this tends not to stop ppl

Thanks to @ben_machell for featuring me in his gaming piece in @TimesMagazine. Great piece. One minor niggle I was ST not Amiga. Looking forward to getting a console in London so I can play more often. Maybe @tom_watson will let me play on his! pic.twitter.com/ehp1rkxrff

— (((Alex Sobel MP))) (@alexsobel) May 19, 2018

ST is a massive dealbreaker

alex is cancelled

I think this Sobel dossier in progress is already looking very bad!

Sorry repeating a bg post. My pc blew up yesterday and am restricted to phone shit posting.

ST wtf

rip big man, heaven needed calz's personal computer

Enjoy the 600gb of free jazz flacs heaven, cos my neighbour will be sure glad they gone!

If McDonnell stood and got on the ballot he would be very likely to win but I'm not convinced that's a given. He's already had one heart attack and may lack the appetite for the top job at this stage.

One Labour figure who seems to be in the ascendancy is Angela Rayner, already has a senior shadow ministerial brief, not a natural Corbynite but has been very vocally supportive and loyal to the leadership. Appears to resemble a normal person as much as any politician does, friendly with the unions and would be able to position herself as a unity candidate. It might come too early for her though, same with Rebecca Long-Bailey.

i assume 'jazz flacs' is a euphemism xp

Lol!

Free ones at that, no wonder your computer blew up.

such blatant disregard for dan j arvis itt

Angela Raynor is likeable but I found her opinions on the Blair years completely bollox once. I dont know if she has changed any since then, but if you don't what is wrong with past mistakes etc....

rayner is so normal it's hard to imagine her as PM. as a charismatic working class soft left type she is popular the base, idk beyond that. long-bailey is v environment focused & serious, comes across well in person (not afraid to admit ignorance). both definitely on the team.

xp lol

As the group owner of Dan Jarvis For Leader, I would like to announce that I am withdrawing all support and this group will cease positing from tonight. You cannot ignore members and conference on this most important issue. It's time to put country before constituents. https://t.co/zMjg0u8qbn

— Ben (@DanJarvisLeader) March 27, 2019

As Miliband proved, the gutter press would just go back to dog-whistle AS and he’d not necessarily gain Jewish voters who started leaving when EM made it policy to recognise Palestinians.

I remember, at the time of that GE, Jewish voters being interviewed and saying they wouldn't vote for Miliband because he was Jewish - the logic being that he'd be bending over backwards to show he wasn't biased.

Have to admit I was surprised that Dan Jarvis was even still in Parliament, I thought he'd just quietly gone off and done something more worthwhile at the last election.

It's pretty amazing that anyone would stan that hard for Jarvis without knowing where he stood on the biggest single issue of the moment, but it does generally fit with the pattern of people building him based on no substance whatsoever.

You not seen his tough soldier selfies in Afghan? If that doesn't burnish your political rep then thank fuck!

He’s the mayor for Sheffield now!

Can confirm at least one legend of the left is still glad he’s around:

If Ken Loach really cared about politics & the oppressed he would have filmed my script about Dan Jarvis freeing Marine A from a prison cell

— Simon Hedges (@Orwell_Fan) February 13, 2017

I saw Jewish voters interviewed about Ed Miliband (a lot of bubbies in Finchley, basically) and they were fans of the Other Brother, who had been ‘stabbed in the back’.

Sir Micheal "warm your hands on my balls" Fallon used that one against Ed in the 2015 election cxampaign as well, in a vaguely dogwhistle manner iirc.

Pretty sure Other Brother wasn’t down with changing Labour’s pre-2014 I/P policy of constructive ambiguity.

In my head i frequently confuddle DMil with Ed Balls which is probably like my head otm

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

Tom Tugendhat has the most regrettable name so whoever that is

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

compelling evidence here that gove is a tier 1 menace https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/michael-gove-premiership-would-be-another-blow-british-muslims

summary of charges: reckless renegade, confidence masking deep ignorance, history of fabrication, islamophobia & liked by peter oborne