How long will the war with Iraq last?

this time the objective(s) are far more intangible given that Allied forces will have to locate Saddam before they can attempt to dispose of him...although I suspect that all significant military installations could be destroyed by Allied weapons within weeks surely?

the 'war' with Al-Qaeda and other extreme anti-West terrorist factions could last a LOT longer obviously, we're talking a lifetime given the tenuous definition

The battle to actually *control* Iraq will take much longer. We are actually losing the battle to control Afghanistan right now, not that we put much effort into it in the first place.

Like fletrejet said above, the battle to control Iraq will be much longer and may never resolve.

Then - panzer legion drives to Baghdad (takes a week, say)

Then - street fighting in Baghdad, maybe a week or two.

He discusses three possibilities:

1) Call for immediate cessation
2) Hope it's all over quickly and the US win to minimise casualties
3) Hope it's drawn out and nasty and the US imperial adventure becomes a nightmarish Vietnam redux

Obv. 3 is one which results in lots of death, so not a good position. Leaving 1 or 2; 1, whilst consistent with being Anti-war is unrealistic in the uber-extreme, so he argues that to remain consistent once it starts, the left have to back the US for a speedy outcome.

I didn't like the conclusion, but I can't dispute the argument at this moment.

In response to the problems I was voicing regarding the war stuff here, I've decided that a problem with the left is that it needs it's own theory of regime change and how military force can be used; it evacuates the argument by becoming all 'not in my name' at the drop of a hat and leaves the running to the militarists. Jaw-jaw is certainly better than war-war, but the left need to come up with a set of criteria about when war-war remains the only option left.

The street fighting will take longer than a couple of weeks, what's the betting that half of Baghdad is wired up and ready for the tripwires to be set?

I foresee US-UK troops in Iraq for a good while after the war, though, as they'll be needed to keep in "power" whatever bozo Bushi decides to make President of Iraq. I'm looking forward to US-UK arms being used against the cheeky secessionist Kurds and anyone who starts demanding actual democracy in Iraq.

15:30 14Feb2003 RTRS-BLIX - NO CONVINCING EVIDENCE IRAQIS KNEW IN ADVANCE INSPECTORS WERE COMING 15:32 14Feb2003 RTRS-BLIX: INSPECTIONS EFFECTIVELY HELPING TO BRIDGE GAP IN KNOWLEDGE OF IRAQI ARMS 15:35 14Feb2003 RTRS-BLIX - IRAQ ACCEPTS SOUTH AFRICAN OFFER OF EXPERTS ON HOW TO DISARM 15:35 14Feb2003 RTRS-BLIX - "MANY PROSCRIBED WEAPONS AND ITEMS ARE NOT ACCOUNTED FOR" 15:37 14Feb2003 RTRS-BLIX - IRAQ MUST SQUARELY ACCOUNT FOR STATUS OF ANTHRAX, VX AND LONG-RANGE MISSILES 15:38 14Feb2003 RTRS-BLIX - IRAQ'S AL SAMOUD 2 MISSILE EXCEEDS U.N. RANGE, IS PROSCRIBED SYSTEM

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/04/14/international/worldspecial/14CND-CAPI.html

insurgency/civil war lasting until 2011 at the earliest...

(assuming the figure given as accurate for the life of most insurgencies as lasting no fewer than 9-10 years)

Oh and it starts back up again w/in a generation.

= longer than ww2. hot poop!

how wrong I was. It's interesting the extent to which the Kurds in Iraq are playing a blinder - quietly setting up an independent state without rocking the boat by actually mentioning this out loud.

Well, like someone said earlier...no one is sending mortars into Rammstein Air Force base. Cuba's a whole different set of circumstances: we have a lease there that can only be broken if both parties agree to it. Obviously, we want it there, so they gotta put up with it. They could try to use force to get us to leave...but I don't think that would work that well.

We remember things so we don't forget them. On this day, the 16th anniversary of the invasion of Iraq, we should remember the so-called experts who urged on the war. They have not withered away. They are still with us, still telling us what we should do.

— Peter Maass (@maassp) March 20, 2019