Why do Germany and France have consistently higher unemployment than the UK or US?

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Is there anything in the right-wing argument about inflexible markets and overly generous social security?

armchair economist, Friday, 16 April 2004 09:12 (twenty-two years ago)

Immigration is a big factor in both countries, plus Germany's absorbsion of the east. Labour market inflexibility has been a factor in more recent years. But then so has the restriction in the use of defecit spending as a stimulus by the stability and growth pact. Defecit public spending in the UK has been a big factor in keeping the UK economy moving over the last few year.

Ed (dali), Friday, 16 April 2004 09:18 (twenty-two years ago)

I don't think there's much in the generous social security argument, but the inflexible labour laws, yeah, I'd say so.

N. (nickdastoor), Friday, 16 April 2004 09:20 (twenty-two years ago)

The UK government are past masters at statistical sophistry - the actual unemployment figures are much higher in the UK than those given by the government. It would be instructive to compare unemployment rates in France, Germany and the UK if the same criteria was used to measure them in all three states. It's possible the UK would still be lowest but it would not be anything like as impressive as Blair and co would have you believe.

Dadaismus (Dada), Friday, 16 April 2004 09:21 (twenty-two years ago)

damm, dada! that was the revelation i was going to bestow.

now i feel redundunt(er) and useless(er)

Robbie Lumsden (Wallace Stevens HQ), Friday, 16 April 2004 09:22 (twenty-two years ago)

Surely immigration is equally significant in the UK or US? And don't France and Germany have large deficits (above EU limits at least)?

armchair economist, Friday, 16 April 2004 09:23 (twenty-two years ago)

Economics doesn't work.

Dadaismus (Dada), Friday, 16 April 2004 09:25 (twenty-two years ago)

All governments massage unemployment figures - I'm not sure that the UK is necessarily better at it than other countries. I'm sure there's a ton of statistical evidence on this out there though. Above and beyond any statistical trickery, I think most economists agree that that France and Germany have higher strucural unemployment. As do most EU countries with large public sector and spending: Italy, Belgium, Spain, Portugal, etc.

armchair economist, Friday, 16 April 2004 09:28 (twenty-two years ago)

If you use the labour market survey figures rather than the claimant count (which has been the official figure for some years, despite the claimant count still being collected too) then isn't that an international standard somewhat free of massaging?

N. (nickdastoor), Friday, 16 April 2004 09:28 (twenty-two years ago)

The UK government are past masters at statistical sophistry - the actual unemployment figures are much higher in the UK than those given by the government. It would be instructive to compare unemployment rates in France, Germany and the UK if the same criteria was used to measure them in all three states. It's possible the UK would still be lowest but it would not be anything like as impressive as Blair and co would have you believe.

Although this still holds true it's not as true as it used to be, since the government moved from the claiment count to the much more accurate ILO figures.

Surely immigration is equally significant in the UK or US? And don't France and Germany have large deficits (above EU limits at least)?

Immigration as a proportion of population has been significantly higher in France and Germany than the UK. And it's not so much the defecit in absolute terms than is key here it was the ammount by which the governments were able to increase their defecits. The UK was much more sucessful at paying back defecits during the boom years and had more room to manouver in the bust years. Of course this comes back to the cost of Germany and France's superior public services.....

Ed (dali), Friday, 16 April 2004 09:31 (twenty-two years ago)

I'm not sure that the UK is necessarily better at it than other countries

Have you heard of New Deal? I still believe that if all EU countries were forced to use the same criteria in compiling unemployment figures you would see the UK's current figures rocket up.

I think most economists agree that that France and Germany have
higher strucural unemployment. As do most EU countries with large public sector and spending: Italy, Belgium, Spain, Portugal, etc.

Economics is like Psychoanalysis - it's a good idea, be great if it was scientifically rigorous, but it isn't.

Dadaismus (Dada), Friday, 16 April 2004 09:33 (twenty-two years ago)

And we got de oil!

N. (nickdastoor), Friday, 16 April 2004 09:34 (twenty-two years ago)

North Sea oil is absolutely critical, yes.

Ricardo (RickyT), Friday, 16 April 2004 09:38 (twenty-two years ago)

North Sea oil pumps money into the system, but how does it create jobs? How do you account for the horrendous unemployment statistics when North Sea oil was flowing fastest in the 80s?

I bow to anyone's greater knowledge on manipulating unemployment statistics. I do know, however, that the French government is constantly dreaming up schemes to get people off the unemployment register and into largely theoretical training programs, pseudo-jobs and suchlike...

Ed, are you suggesting that there in fact is a trade-off between superior public services and unemployment? I think this is the nub of the matter.

armchair economist, Friday, 16 April 2004 09:42 (twenty-two years ago)

It was a x-post really - I was referring to Ed's trade deficit post.

N. (nickdastoor), Friday, 16 April 2004 09:49 (twenty-two years ago)

More money magically appearing from somewhere enables governments to run lower tax regimes while keeping up public spending, which in turn usually means more jobs all round.

The 1980s would have been much, much worse if there was no North Sea oil.

Ricardo (RickyT), Friday, 16 April 2004 09:54 (twenty-two years ago)

I'm new deal. I got a mobile phone, a suit, some trousers and some shirts. I also got put on a kushy placement at KatiePriceHill College (i'm gonna keep calling it that til someone laughs) where i don't have much to do, so just sit about posting on ILE. in fact, one could so, I am Tony Blairs gift to ILE. nice. and it only costs the tax payer £116 a fortnight. whadda bargain.

Robbie Lumsden (Wallace Stevens HQ), Friday, 16 April 2004 09:55 (twenty-two years ago)

I am Tony Blairs gift to ILE. nice.

isn't that Momus?

Eisbär (llamasfur), Friday, 16 April 2004 10:41 (twenty-two years ago)

Unfortunately Momus was Thatcher's gift to ILE.

Pete (Pete), Friday, 16 April 2004 10:46 (twenty-two years ago)

I thought he was Macmillan's gift to ILE

Dadaismus (Dada), Friday, 16 April 2004 10:47 (twenty-two years ago)

Id ont't think there is necessarily a link between good public services and high unemployement, I think labour market flexibility is the key. Of course governments with a good social concience tend protect their workers better leading to a tighhter labour market, but the link is not direct. The key is if hiring and firing cost less people are more likely to be employed. But there are so many factrs, if the economy is in a good state then people will be employed whatever the cost to employ them.

Ed (dali), Friday, 16 April 2004 10:52 (twenty-two years ago)

I don't think there is any massaging of the unemployment stats in the UK. Ed & N are correct - the ILO measure is an internationally agreed standard and is much more useful than the claimant count. I'm not entirely sure how people on New Deals are covered by the ILO measure - it might depend on what option you're on.

There is the slightly spurious point about 'hidden unemployment' whereby people claim incapacity benefits/retire early but are actually keen to return to work, but don't believe there "are any jobs out there." These people show up as economically inactive - figures also published, so they're not really hidden at all.

But this is a much larger problem in the UK than Germany/France I believe, so there's probably something in it.

c1ive (Clive), Friday, 16 April 2004 10:53 (twenty-two years ago)

There are other ways of keeping peopl out of the unemployemtn count, sending them to higher or further education is always a good one.. Of course people may benefit from this, but this was surely thatcher reason for expanding the university system (and running it down at the same time).

Ed (dali), Friday, 16 April 2004 11:00 (twenty-two years ago)

Yes, why is Blair so keen on sending people to University to get qualifications for jobs they'll never do?

Dadaismus (Dada), Friday, 16 April 2004 11:44 (twenty-two years ago)

To keep them busy at De Montfort while members of the meritocracy wangle all the best jobs for their kids.

suzy (suzy), Friday, 16 April 2004 13:15 (twenty-two years ago)

Indeed. Like the middle classes are about to allow other people's kids(poor people's kids) to get into the professions - remind me, when exactly is hell due to freeze over?

Dadaismus (Dada), Friday, 16 April 2004 13:21 (twenty-two years ago)

The European countries have higher unemployment figurse because they measure it more accurately. The official US unemployment figure us actually about half of the ACTUAL unemployment at any given time. This is because the statistics are calculated only for people who are actually receiving unemplyments benefits, which are based on how much you worked in prior quarters--it is not an entitlement. It is temporary, it runs out, and you many people don't qualify for it. You don't qualify if you quit or were fired, for example. The only way to get is to be "laid off". It also doesn't count the under-employed, so someone who is looking for full time work and is working 2 days a week somehwere is not considered unemployed. The figure is not an accurate reflection of the actual state of employment.

Orbit (Orbit), Sunday, 18 April 2004 04:43 (twenty-two years ago)

omg please forgive the typos

Orbit (Orbit), Sunday, 18 April 2004 04:46 (twenty-two years ago)

Can't believe nobody's said the word 'globalisation'.

Autumn Almanac (Autumn Almanac), Sunday, 18 April 2004 04:53 (twenty-two years ago)

Outsourcing jobs to other (cheaper) countries is what America does best these days.

Cy Twombly, Sunday, 18 April 2004 04:57 (twenty-two years ago)

Shall we forgive your gross factual errors as well?

From the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Who is counted as unemployed?
Persons are classified as unemployed if they do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior 4 weeks, and are currently available for work.

How are the unemployed counted in other countries?
The sample survey system of counting the unemployed in the United States is also used by many foreign countries, including Canada, Mexico, Australia, Japan, and all of the countries in the European Economic Community. More recently, a number of Eastern European nations have instituted labor force surveys as well. However, some countries collect their official statistics on the unemployed from employment office registrations or unemployment insurance records. Many nations, including the United States, use both labor force survey data and administrative statistics to analyze unemployment.

Stuart (Stuart), Sunday, 18 April 2004 05:08 (twenty-two years ago)

What they are not telling you is that the only way for them to determine if someone is actively looking for work is that they are participating in EDD - Unemployment.

Orbit (Orbit), Sunday, 18 April 2004 05:18 (twenty-two years ago)

so your statement proves your ignorance.
i have not made a factual error, you snot.
how do you think they KNOW someone is actively seeking work? it's because they check that box off on their unemployment form.
THEREFORE If they are not signed up with, or ineligible for, unemployment they are not counted in the statistic?
get it?

Orbit (Orbit), Sunday, 18 April 2004 05:20 (twenty-two years ago)

yep, unemployment benefits run out after 6 mos. and then you're shit out of luck. I know from experience.

Cy Twombly, Sunday, 18 April 2004 05:27 (twenty-two years ago)

AND let me add this small wrinkle: Are the homeless unemployed? Our Census workers can't even fucking FIND them to count them!! They are not eligible for unemplyment. They can't check off the little boxes that say
-were you available for work?
-did you turn down any work
-did you actively seek work?
on the Unemployment claim form which becomes fodder for BLS statistics.


-That makes the REAL unemployment rate go even higher.

Orbit (Orbit), Sunday, 18 April 2004 05:29 (twenty-two years ago)

(this is why i no longer teach undergraduate sociology. i have to fight the urge not to murder snotty undergrads).

in a bad mood, saying gnite

Orbit (Orbit), Sunday, 18 April 2004 05:31 (twenty-two years ago)

The unemployment rate for March was 5.7%

The unemployment rate plus the "looking for full time but could only find part time" rate for March was 6.67%.

Add March's 514,000 discouraged workers, people who wanted to work but did not believe there were any jobs available for them, and so did not look for work in the past 4 weeks, and you get 7.02%

The Unemployment Rate in Germany for March, 2004 was 10.9%. I cannot find a clear definition of how Germany counts unemployment, but it appears that anyone who participates in economic activity is employed, same as the US (thus the 10.9% German unemployment rate seems to use the same definition as the US's 5.7% unemployment rate).

Stuart (Stuart), Sunday, 18 April 2004 05:35 (twenty-two years ago)

What they are not telling you is that the only way for them to determine if someone is actively looking for work is that they are participating in EDD - Unemployment.

Wrong again:

Where do the statistics come from?
Because unemployment insurance records, which many people think are the source of total unemployment data, relate only to persons who have applied for such benefits, and since it is impractical to actually count every unemployed person each month, the Government conducts a monthly sample survey called the Current Population Survey (CPS) to measure the extent of unemployment in the country. The CPS has been conducted in the United States every month since 1940 when it began as a Work Projects Administration project. It has been expanded and modified several times since then. As explained later, the CPS estimates, beginning in 1994, reflect the results of a major redesign of the survey.

Current Population Survey, a sample of 60,000 households; data are collected by personal and telephone interviews. Basic labor force data are gathered monthly; data on special topics are gathered in periodic supplements.

Stuart (Stuart), Sunday, 18 April 2004 05:37 (twenty-two years ago)

Stuart, do yourself a favor and go talk to a sociologist about the methdological problems regarding these being problematic measures of unemployment. I'm not being paid to lecture you. Just because something says "We gather statistics" does not mean the stats measure what they are supposed to measure well.

Orbit (Orbit), Sunday, 18 April 2004 05:41 (twenty-two years ago)

First you said European countries have higher unemployment rates because they measure it more accurately. Then you claim BLS unemployment figures are only half of "real" unemployment. You seem to base this assumption on a misunderstanding of how the BLS measures employment - you think they only count people who receive unemployment benefits. I corrected you, then you called me a snot and repeated your false understanding of BLS methodology. Then I quoted directly from the BLS website about how many people think unemployment benefits records are the basis for unemployment statistics, but that is not the case. You seem completely unaware of the Current Population Survey. I also pointed out I can't find evidence that Germany (for example) defines employment and unemployment differently than the United States. I also pointed out that if you include in the US "unemployment" rate 1) part-time workers who want full time jobs and 2) discouraged workers who've given up looking, you're still 3.88% lower than Germany's 10.9%, and I have no reason to believe that Germany includes underemployed and discouraged workers in their figure.

Now you've repeated your claim that the BLS uses a faulty methodology, but you have not admitted that your understanding of thier methodology was flawed in the first place.

So explain to me:

1) How do the methodologies of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the German Federal Statistical Office differ?

2) Were you aware that the BLS uses the Current Population Survey of 60,000 households in collecting data, not just unemployment benefits records, and that the unemployment rate has nothing to do with the percentage of the workforce receiving such benefits? Are you aware of these things now, after I've repeated them three times?

2) Does your misunderstanding of the BLS methodology fully explain your belief that their figures represent "about half of the ACTUAL unemployment," and if not where does the BLS lose the "other" half that Germany doesn't?

3) Is there reason to believe that Germany counts their homeless population better than the United States? The best estimates are still estimates, but the statistics I can find online for both countries suggest 1.2% in the United States and .6% in Germany, but Germany doesn't count the homeless as unemployed either. You're still claiming that the BLS is not accounting for almost half the unemployed population *that Germany successfully gathers statistics on*.

Stuart (Stuart), Sunday, 18 April 2004 06:13 (twenty-two years ago)

http://laborsta.ilo.org/

comparable statistics, or at least statistics with the methodology explained.

Ed (dali), Sunday, 18 April 2004 06:19 (twenty-two years ago)

Stuart you haven't a clue.
That the US unemplyment rate is grossly underestimated is NOT a controversy. Simply looking at a methdology doesn't mean you understand the implications of that methdology. Why not just Goog|e: Sociology critique unemployment rate?
That way you might actually find something useful.

Orbit (Orbit), Sunday, 18 April 2004 06:23 (twenty-two years ago)

That the US unemplyment rate is grossly underestimated is NOT a controversy.

Not a controversy among whom? I find it hard to believe that the Bureau of Labor Statistics continues to use a methodology that is universally agreed to grossly underestimate the thing being measured.

Even if the methodology is flawed in producing an accurate unemployment rate, you could at least explain how their estimate is not only flawed but inconsistently so.

If it's so obvious to anyone with a clue how grossly inaccurate the BLS's unemployment rate estimate is, you'd think it would be possible to explain how in a sentence or two that can't be shot full of holes by Clueless Snotty Stuart and his Magic Google Stick.

You'd think economists would stop paying attention to the BLS if their numbers don't mean anything. You'd think they'd stop comparing countries whose employment statistics were like apples and oranges.

You'd think you could explain why the US gets away with flawed numbers while Europe uses these "accurate" estimates that make them look so bad.

We're not arguing whether or not the BLS rate is the *actual* rate. We're arguing whether or not US and European rates can be meaningfully compared, and you've failed to provide any explanation as to why they cannot, besides "Oh God its sooooo obvious.. and Sociologist would tell you..." So tell me.

Stuart (Stuart), Sunday, 18 April 2004 06:35 (twenty-two years ago)

*sigh*
do your own research.

Orbit (Orbit), Sunday, 18 April 2004 07:02 (twenty-two years ago)

Maybe they don't lie about the figures as much.

Sick Nouthall (Nick Southall), Sunday, 18 April 2004 07:13 (twenty-two years ago)

[Tentative hypothesis]

Because the UK government has an explicit aim of achieving full employment, and has implemented schemes such as the New Deal.

The good point is that the UK has very low unemployment, and it's less of a drag on the economy than in France, Germany etc.

The bad point is that UK productivity (output per worker) lags France, Germany, and the US considerably which doesn't bode well for the future of the economy.

Bob Six (bobbysix), Sunday, 18 April 2004 07:51 (twenty-two years ago)

For just one day I'd like to be a fly on the wall in Stuart's life, to see how his "conversational" stlye works with the people he actually knows face to face.

"Apple pie is great."

"Wrong again!!"

Tracer Hand (tracerhand), Sunday, 18 April 2004 10:25 (twenty-two years ago)

You have a skewed impression of my controversiality because I don't hang out on the "Apple Pie: C/D" thread.

Stuart (Stuart), Sunday, 18 April 2004 13:18 (twenty-two years ago)

Oh, that's what your problem is!

Orbit (Orbit), Sunday, 18 April 2004 19:36 (twenty-two years ago)

three years pass...

lol @ orbit

gershy, Friday, 15 June 2007 07:06 (eighteen years ago)


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