exchange rates/what will happen to the £ vs the $?

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i've poked around a bit in the archives, and found eg this:

€, £, $

but nothing that answered this v simple (sounding q): why to exchange rates between currencies change? and does anyone know what will happen to the pound against the dollar? are we actually going to see 2 dollars to the pound again?

toby (tsg20), Tuesday, 15 March 2005 09:28 (twenty-one years ago)

$1.85 - $1.95 looks like a sensible range for the time being. To kick it to $2 it will take an asian government to actually start moving it's reserves over to pounds and euros. A free floating or revalued Renminbi would probably take some pressure off the european currencies, despite the dollar's inherrent weakness at the moment.

Ed (dali), Tuesday, 15 March 2005 09:56 (twenty-one years ago)

yay, toby finally remembered to start this thread after talking about this several times.

this has practical implications for me-- i earn pounds (and pay most bills in pounds), but my student loans are in the US. so i end up sending money to the US several times a year, and the exchange rate makes a difference to how quickly i can pay off my loans.

is there any place where people speculate about how long the current exchange rate will stay in place? (until W is gone?!) i'm happy to keep things going as i have been for the time being unless i think the dollar is going to get stronger again soon, in which case, i'd send over my pounds as quickly as i can, to benefit from this exchange.

colette (a2lette), Tuesday, 15 March 2005 10:09 (twenty-one years ago)

So they will drop the Pound and use the Euro?

nathalie barefoot in the head (stevie nixed), Tuesday, 15 March 2005 10:22 (twenty-one years ago)

Look at the spread betting sites and at the currency futures market.

The pound is round $1.90 at the moment because there's been a lot of speculation lately about korea dumping dollar reserse and paper in favour of European reserves and paper. If the actually do it, espcially if they do it quickly (which the probably won't) expect $1.95.

Ed (dali), Tuesday, 15 March 2005 10:26 (twenty-one years ago)

Colette, you could always try hedging in the spread betting market. Transfer some money now and take a position on the dollar dropping further. Although that is exceedingly risky. Maybe we could do a shadow spread betting game in the same manner as the scottish football predictions competition.

Ed (dali), Tuesday, 15 March 2005 10:34 (twenty-one years ago)

the exchange rate makes it really good for online poker sites based on us currency (i just have to hope the dollar gets strong later when i want to cash it all back in)

ken c (ken c), Tuesday, 15 March 2005 10:37 (twenty-one years ago)

ed, i'd be interested in doing some game that didn't involve me losing money. i have to admit that i have some sort of mental block to financial terms and the way things work, but once i actually sit down and concentrate, it can't be that hard to figure out, can it? so if someone set up a game and explained it for financial dummies like me, maybe in a while, i'd actually be willing to do it! (as opposed to my current paypal myself in another country game, which still seems a bit magic, or the 'go to america and take out hundreds of dollars at the ATM each day' game, which really has lost the magic now)

colette (a2lette), Tuesday, 15 March 2005 10:50 (twenty-one years ago)

oh, ken, there's a really interesting article about online poker sites and 'young people' in the new york times yesterday...you should check it out!

colette (a2lette), Tuesday, 15 March 2005 10:51 (twenty-one years ago)

oh wow - i'm gonna have a look for it!

ken c (ken c), Tuesday, 15 March 2005 11:15 (twenty-one years ago)

Ken, are you winning lots of $$$? I'm bloody not :(

Ed, I too would be up for a fantasy trading game of some kind - need to get my hand back in. After 5 years of appalling luck/misjudgement with my stock picks, the shares I do own have had a brilliant year - and not just because the stock market's picked up.

Markelby (Mark C), Tuesday, 15 March 2005 12:04 (twenty-one years ago)

i am on the steady gain i think.. i'm still using all the games as practice though really before i go on higher stake stuff. haha i don't know whether i'd ever have the nerve to quit my job/school and play poker for a living like that guy in the article though! (even though that does sound fun!)

ken c (ken c), Tuesday, 15 March 2005 12:06 (twenty-one years ago)

My $50 has become, I think, $26 since we started playing. My pretend money, however, has gone up by 30%. Sigh.

Markelby (Mark C), Tuesday, 15 March 2005 12:17 (twenty-one years ago)

I wish I'd taken a position on the dollar this morning as I'd be quids in right now. The cantor june price on the dollar pound rate has risen 42 points since I first looked this morning.

Ed (dali), Tuesday, 15 March 2005 12:18 (twenty-one years ago)

The cantor june price

what does this mean? is this a spread betting/hedging term?

colette (a2lette), Tuesday, 15 March 2005 12:20 (twenty-one years ago)

Translated, that means...?

Markelby (Mark C), Tuesday, 15 March 2005 12:20 (twenty-one years ago)

Cantor Index (big spred betting firm) offer a spread on the predicted June £/$ exchange rate. The price they are now offering is 42 points higher than when I first looked this morning. If i'd bought that position at say £1 a point I could have sold it right now and I'd be £42 richer right now. Except now it would be £49

Ed (dali), Tuesday, 15 March 2005 12:28 (twenty-one years ago)

f i'd bought that position at say £1 a point I could have sold it right now and I'd be £42 richer right now. Except now it would be £49

and then you could have bought mark a really nice birthday present!

so, these people are assuming the price is going up till at least june? that's good news for me!

colette (a2lette), Tuesday, 15 March 2005 12:30 (twenty-one years ago)

Actually they were assuming the price was going down from today's interbank price but less and less people seem to think so. The june spread is now only marginally below todays price.

Ed (dali), Tuesday, 15 March 2005 12:32 (twenty-one years ago)

What does a point represent? A cent? one hundredth of a cent? Something else? And do they think the dollar will strengthen or weaken? I ened to plan for my trip to the US in May...

xpost - gotcha

Markelby (Mark C), Tuesday, 15 March 2005 12:32 (twenty-one years ago)

1 point is a hundreth of a cent in this case.

Ed (dali), Tuesday, 15 March 2005 13:08 (twenty-one years ago)

i'd be up for some fantasy trading, too...

toby (tsg20), Tuesday, 15 March 2005 13:55 (twenty-one years ago)

one year passes...
OK, in practical terms, just saw an article that the pound is closer to $2 than it has been for a long time.

considering that we're both earning in pounds, and have a wedding in a year that'll be paid for in dollars, what's the best way to go about using this to our advantage? i think some family would like us to buy dollars for them.

i assume going to the post office or whatever bureau de change that's around and buying $$ to bring home isn't the most effective way of doing it. but what is?

facts in case they help: i have bank accounts in the UK and US. but transferring between them seems to cost big money, so i haven't ever used that. i also seem to have paypal accounts in both countries as well-- could this be a way to do things easily and quickly while not losing a ton in transaction fees?

colette (a2lette), Sunday, 6 August 2006 14:47 (nineteen years ago)

PayPal transaction fees are high.

Any wedding costs you're paying yourself, I'd have thought you should pay them using your British credit/debit cards.

For the rest, do a bank transfer between accounts. I'd guess you'd lose much less than using a bureau de change.

Alba (Alba), Sunday, 6 August 2006 15:10 (nineteen years ago)

Get a Nationwide credit card they have the best rates and 0 commission for foreign transactions.

Ed (dali), Sunday, 6 August 2006 15:12 (nineteen years ago)

but we're not paying for them now, we're paying for things in probably 6 months to a year...

nationwide is a good one, when i'm back i use my nationwide card and take out a load of cash at an ATM, then deposit it in my us account. but i won't be back until christmas-- will rates still be this favorable then?

bank transfers are stupidly high, i remember when i first moved here i had to do one and it was about £50! which pretty much sucks up any good rates you're getting at relatively small sums like i've got.

colette (a2lette), Sunday, 6 August 2006 15:30 (nineteen years ago)

But £50 out of an overall sum that British family or whoever want to contribute to the wedding surely isn't that much? I mean, if the savings you're hoping to make don't add up to £50 then the whole thing doesn't really seem worth it.

When you get Nationwide money out of the ATM, you're withdrawing it from your current account, not doing a cash advance on a credit card, yes? Cause that costs loads, regardless of the country you're in, no?

I think I'm confused about what you want to do.

Alba (Alba), Sunday, 6 August 2006 15:38 (nineteen years ago)

Sorry, I'm making it look like I'm going "ooh, £50 is just pocket money to me". Didn't mean that, I just meant bleh, I'll shut up.

Alba (Alba), Sunday, 6 August 2006 15:40 (nineteen years ago)

Wiring a few thousand a £50 seems the best option. The alternative is buying dollar cash at the best rate possible. Gold Bullion is always an option but you are bringing a third (and dollar denominated) an less liquid asset into the mix. (Also I don't know what the movement restrictions are and what would happen if you tried to sell gold bars stateside).

Ed (dali), Sunday, 6 August 2006 15:44 (nineteen years ago)

You could buy bullion coins by mail order, have them shipped to you parents and then sell them for cash.

http://www.e-bullion.com/ may be an option for cheaper currency changing an holding gold or dollars for you.

Ed (dali), Sunday, 6 August 2006 15:55 (nineteen years ago)

Yeah I haven't yet figured out how to do the student loan payment thing from a diff. country without getting rinsed. I have the sinking feeling it may not be possible..

richardk (Richard K), Monday, 7 August 2006 12:07 (nineteen years ago)

pieces of eight and dubloons

Ed (dali), Monday, 7 August 2006 12:09 (nineteen years ago)

yeah, i've used a nationwide ATM card rather than a credit card, so there's no fees from their end, just the $2-3 i pay at the foreign ATM. which is an OK way to do it when i'm there.

what about somewhere like this, which seems to have lower international wire fees and says it'll beat bank rates:
http://www.worldfirst.com/individual/index.htm

i thought that there were so many different kinds of paypal accounts that i'd discovered a way to use it so i benefited, but it's not obvious now.

richard, i'm in the same boat-- US loans, earning £. which is great, because my money is more valuable! but it's a pain to get it over there, really.

colette (a2lette), Monday, 7 August 2006 12:56 (nineteen years ago)

The only reason for buying dollars (and paying unavoidable commission - there's simply no way of getting away from it no matter how you do it) is if you think the dollar will get stronger in the future. Do you? And if so, why? You need the dollar to strengthen by several percent just to break even, so you really need to have the best evidence that it's going to happen.

I want to be Ray Mears (Mark C), Monday, 7 August 2006 20:50 (nineteen years ago)

two years pass...

1.63!

toby, Wednesday, 22 October 2008 15:12 (seventeen years ago)

Make it stop! How am I going to go mad shopping in January at this rate :(

I KNOW WHAT YOU'RE UP TO (Colonel Poo), Wednesday, 22 October 2008 15:25 (seventeen years ago)

Yes, please make it stop. They might start coming over here for their holidays again. :-)

Chewshabadoo, Wednesday, 22 October 2008 15:37 (seventeen years ago)

TOO LATE

I KNOW WHAT YOU'RE UP TO (Colonel Poo), Wednesday, 22 October 2008 15:37 (seventeen years ago)

I would be quite happy to see it go a lot further. Not really expecting it to though.

toby, Wednesday, 22 October 2008 15:43 (seventeen years ago)

Last time we were over it was $2.10. Good times.

I KNOW WHAT YOU'RE UP TO (Colonel Poo), Wednesday, 22 October 2008 15:55 (seventeen years ago)

This is a big win for me at the moment.

Gukbe, Wednesday, 22 October 2008 16:50 (seventeen years ago)

Wow, 1.54! Wish I had some more $s lying around at the moment...

toby, Friday, 24 October 2008 10:09 (seventeen years ago)

Haha that last minute December trip to New York is totally out now.

Matt DC, Friday, 24 October 2008 10:12 (seventeen years ago)

New york, accomodation aside is still cheaper than london at 1.50 to the pound, just not mad cheap.

something less awful (Ed), Friday, 24 October 2008 10:20 (seventeen years ago)

i have to send $ back to the UK to pay my £ bills and the same dollar amount is worth a cool £200 more now than at the start of the year. trying to make it feel like free money instead of feeling like i have been robbed for two years.

Alan Mindbender (Roberto Spiralli), Friday, 24 October 2008 10:48 (seventeen years ago)


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