North Korea

Kim has never looked comfortable in the role. I wonder if he's been secretly looking for a way out for years.

Xpost we have many statements by the US administration and DPRK. The former has said recognizing a new nuclear state was an impossibility ( Bolton once stated his ideal for the summit would be simply issuing this ultimatum) whereas the latter has made possession of the weapons and technology central to their regime’s sense of identity domestically and how they are viewed internationally.

Kim Jong Un's biggest obstacle to executing a fundamental shift of policy toward ROK and the USA would be getting his military leadership behind him. If they came along, he could pivot instantly. If they united against him, there'd be no chance of striking a deal.

KJ Un is fluent in English, thanks to years in Switzerland schools. He's no less aware of Trump's fundamental issues as a narcissist than we are.

He's offered to end testing. That, and some praise directed at T are all it will take to remove some sanctions. No peace process, no unification, and nothing that threatens the NK elites. Just theater.

don't worry, trump is aware of the history with all of these issues. he definitely knows that NK can be trusted to keep any promises they make

"Sleepy Eyes Chuck Todd of Fake News NBC just stated that we have given up so much in our negotiations with North Korea, and they have given up nothing. Wow, we haven’t given up anything & they have agreed to denuclearization (so great for World), site closure, & no more testing!" - prez

I haven’t been following this closely, but where does he get the idea they’ve agreed to denuclearization? Is there any grain of truth around which he’s built this claim? Stop question I know, but hey

Not sure if he’s basing that on the fact that South Korean officials have said KJU told them denuclearization was on the table as far as the NK-US summit goes (but that doesn’t seem to align with North Korea’s more recent statement) or if he is drawing that conclusion purely based on their announcement of testing stoppage.

yea if I didn't know better I'd say Trump is getting played here

he doesn't even know what is going on in the first place. he's the guy at the football game who thinks touchdowns are worth 4 points

"Wow, we haven’t given up anything & they have agreed to denuclearization (so great for World), site closure, & no more testing!" - Trump

In a declaration over the weekend that North Korea would suspend nuclear and missile tests, Mr. Kim spoke as if the North was already a nuclear power, and no longer needed weapons tests, a direct challenge to the Trump administration’s stated goal of denuclearization. Washington has declared that the coming negotiations are about getting rid of the arsenal.

i'd be hopeful that perhaps he could just shut up and that there would be at least ONE U.S. diplomat/State employee who could help drive this toward peace, but he just fired everyone and replaced them with fucking john bolton and mike pompeo

NK's gonna release those three prisoners, keep their nukes and trumps gonna demand the nobel peace prize and get all mad that the fake news media isn't sucking his dick well enough

I’d like to see him get mad about not getting credit for finding a way out of a crisis he created himself.

Pretty much every crisis Donald Trump finds himself in is created at least in part by Donald Trump.

Um ... I guess Kim Jong-un is in South Korea right now?

and for a few seconds, Moon Jae-in was in North Korea. that was a nice gesture on both sides.

Apparently, a lot of nice gestures are planned to be exchanged during this state visit. Not too sure about the substance beyond that, but then the gestures over the past several decades have rarely been nice ones, so this looks like progress.

JUST IN: Kim Jong Un becomes first North Korean leader to cross line dividing the two Koreas since fighting ended in the Korean War https://t.co/l4sg0jXwdm pic.twitter.com/At5zVj9w2V

— CNN International (@cnni) April 27, 2018

Formal end to Korean War will be declared later this year, 65 years after hostilities ceased, North and South Korean leaders agree https://t.co/W6skDX9a7q

— CNN Breaking News (@cnnbrk) April 27, 2018

trump is gonna get the nobel peace prize isn't he

I mean, he might get to share it with the actual Koreans?

A peace prize may come from this but not with Trump

This "too good to be true"/180 degrees change of direction is weird to say the least.

Hope i'm wrong but i think nothing will come out of it except passing the time,which is probably Kims goal here to start with

that pic!

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles/north-korea-to-dismantle-nuclear-test-site-may-23-25-state-media-idUSKCN1ID0H5

If this plays out the way it's been going, I can totally see South Korea's guy getting the Nobel Prize, and Trump getting ignored, then throwing a fit.

the nobel peace prize means nothing. give it to trump wgaf.

igaf

it will be funny when kim jong un gets it

The Nobel Peace Prize may mean nothing, but it would mean something if it was given to Trump or Chairman Un, in the worst way.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WE6KipuuYJc

Extremely good thread from @mhanham https://t.co/EKHiKjZx2d

— Elizabeth Saunders (@ProfSaunders) May 17, 2018

Which is only to say that NK will continue to work on whatever rocketry & nuke miniaturization problems it encountered in their most recent tests, so as to be ready to test new and improved generations of nuclear-equipped ICBMs when the peace talks fall apart.

I think ROK President Moon was doing a grand job of promoting meaningful increments toward a more lasting peace. Now Trump + Bolton + Pompeo are all set to come stomping in, make crazy demands and totally screw it up.

Alrighty then. pic.twitter.com/ZCJ4fdPqWD

— Vipin Narang (@NarangVipin) May 21, 2018

Can Bolton and Pompeo plz eat a bag of something very objectionable and off-putting? And not a small bag, either.

If you want to learn about how much US leaders actually care about Koreans, listen to Donald Rumsfeld's wistful admiration for South Korean dictator Syngman Rhee, who tortured and massacred so many Koreans that we had to airlift him out to Hawaii https://t.co/fmmUMHjt2P pic.twitter.com/XcopBDl47D

— Jon Schwarz (@schwarz) May 25, 2018

North Korea’s top three military officials replaced

Just gave my 2 cents on @bbcworldservice. 1) none of this is confirmed by North Korea yet. 2) I would not call the newbies new or moderate (Ri was part of the famous US mainland strike map photo). 3) yeah, it’s probably significant he didn’t wait for a Party Congress. https://t.co/wMCOHECDqC

— Melissa Hanham (@mhanham) June 4, 2018

Like the Cuban missile crisis, the North Korea nuclear "crisis" is 95% the creation of the United States. https://t.co/JMkEx8DHjk pic.twitter.com/5wr3JFgAyQ

— Jon Schwarz (@schwarz) June 11, 2018

I think the North Korea crisis is far less justifiable than Cuba.

In an era when "first strike capability" was considered a critical part of nuclear warfare doctrine, ICBMs in Cuba was a considerable threat. Tensions between the USSR and USA were exceptionally high, almost to the point of a hair trigger, and this action just escalated them. The current NK "crisis" is no way comparable.

I think the North Korea crisis is far less justifiable than Cuba.

― Mario Meatwagon (Moodles), Monday, June 11, 2018 9:41 PM (eight minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Well yeah. Because it's not a "North Korea crisis", and shouldn't go down in history as such. It's a "Donald Trump crisis".

True, but our policy towards NK was overblown prior to Trump, he's just made it much worse.

Also, with the Cuba example, comparing the distance to Moscow and DC makes little sense when Cuba is extremely close to the southern US.

xp That's equally true.

Sordidly missing from all these shenanigans is the fate of the North-Korean people. That's where the real crisis is, day in day out. Not a peep on that from Trump (nor any other "world leader").

The real concern among US war planners was how quickly their nukes could take out our nukes, leaving us unable to retaliate in kind and cutting the doctrine of MAD off at the knees. The huge difficulty with MAD with missiles in Cuba was making the decision to launch your own nukes within a mere 10 minutes after your opponents launch is detected, as opposed to having a leisurely half hour or so to make sure your radar alert wasn't lying to you about a flock of geese or something. When the whole decision cycle and all the necessary communication time is factored in, compressing it to mere minutes was almost asking for an accidental nuclear war.

Needless to add, but NK can't begin to destroy our nuclear retaliatory capability and won't be able to for as far ahead as one can see or imagine, so any first strike by them leaves us with a thousand-plus missiles we could send their way. This simplifies the nuclear war doctrine to employ against them considerably compared to the USSR in 1961.

last yr I examined 30 media mentions of CSIS on Korea. All 30 pushed for the maintenance of or new purchase of weapons system. When I asked a CSIS rep if they could point to a single instance of CSIS opposing a new weapons system they never got back to me. https://t.co/kvs4n7D30l

— Adam H. Johnson (@adamjohnsonNYC) June 12, 2018

xp That's equally true.

Sordidly missing from all these shenanigans is the fate of the North-Korean people. That's where the real crisis is, day in day out. Not a peep on that from Trump (nor any other "world leader").

― lbi's life of limitless european glamour (Le Bateau Ivre), Monday, 11 June 2018 20:00 (two days ago) Permalink

Is there any sense in which thawing relations between the US and NK would harm the North Korean people? I would think it would benefit them or be neutral at worse.

following from that, i think the kim jong un singapore move will be in the dprk less about the move to normalize relations and more about signalling a change in policy or speeding it up. kim legitimacy increasingly tied to economic success but at the same time tension between old guard leadership / bureaucrats and donju businesspeople and those that have come unattached from state infrastructure. the american military threat is secondary for kim to internal dissent on opening and reform vs state control... kim going to singapore is a good look and would be the next scene in a documentary after his ryomyong street opening and clips of the pyongyang skyline rising.
i think that was a bit incoherent but it's a variation on all of my posts on this thread: the real story is economic reform and opening in north korea which is hard to report on or know much about for sure and not a possible military conflict with the united states.

and another thing i always bring up, the prc-us detente as a good example. normalization with china went forward even though the security issues that the prc and the us couldn't agree on in the late 70s continue to be an issue in 2018. reintegration of china into the international order was good and served strategic goals and required being pragmatic and negotiatiing with bad people.