Joe Biden, Senator from Citibank (oops, DELAWARE), to Run for President

i remember the day my niece started giving me commands in fluent latin. it was creepy as hell, especially because i suddenly realized that i could understand that her latin was fluent

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/21/politics/joe-biden-four-black-women-vice-president/index.html

Biden is considering a broad tier of candidates to be his running mate, after pledging earlier this year to pick a woman for the job. CNN previously reported that Sen. Kamala Harris of California, Rep. Val Demings of Florida, Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, former Obama administration national security adviser Susan Rice and Rep. Karen Bass of California are among the Black women being considered.

I woulda gone with "female tier" instead, but whatever

^ this sort of story appears every four years. it serves the presidential nominees to list every conceivable veep candidate in order to associate themselves with a wide variety of names popular among widely different voting blocs. it serves the named veep choices by adding a bit of a prestigious aura around their careers. it serves the reporter who reports the list, by demonstrating their access to the inner circle of the campaign. it's a win-win-win. check this space in four years for an update.

Do you expect it to be Senator Kamala Harris?

friendship ended with Stacey Abrams / now Keisha Lance Bottoms is my best friend

I expect Harris could very well be the first one on the list. The rest would depend on how each one feels about that prospect, after she and Biden have completed a long conversation/audition for the job. Biden strikes me as the kind of guy who would mainly want their personal chemistry to 'feel right', while Harris seems to me to be someone who would be more concerned about exacting some promises from Biden, that he would delegate her enough power and standing in the administration to allow her to pursue her objectives.

actually, Biden is the kind of guy who says he wants their chemistry to be 'simpatico' while giving double thumbs up with his shades tipped

Harris makes all the sense in the world... except it's a bad move for her. Biden would be one of two VPs elected President without a death since the Civil War IIRC. She can be Senator from the most important state for the rest of her life and run for President in 2024/8/32 if she wants.

When in the typical election cycle is the VP usually announced? It feels real late to me this time, but I assume this is normal.

Doing it earlier than the convention week is a fairly recent phenomenon, at least in my lifetime.

lol broadrito

if Warren is not being considered for real or for show lists bcz they fear Trump hooting "Pocahontas!" through a spitbubble, Biden's team can fuck off a little further

Didn't McCain announce Palin in late Aug '08?

..which was just before the convention, i believe

the only calendar that matters

Warren isn't being considered because she brings nothing to the table.

Old white not-a-swing-state and her voters are guaranteed to turn out and vote blue.

and the fact that she's among the most intelligent and qualified among the candidates of course but that literally doesn't matter apparently

(snark withheld)

Warren isn't being considered because she brings nothing to the table.

i think she'd be the best VP of the people on the list. there's that.

i'm not sure any of the people under consideration bring much to the table electorally if that's what you mean.

They don't bring much but they bring more than absolute zero.

in a purely "maximize democratic turnout sense", warren is probably the best pick fwiw, at least according to polling.

By age alone, having someone who can't collect Social Security alongside creaky Joe is the best plan.

There's also the "better to be in the Senate than VP" factor.

i mean i know you're not personally a fan, but the idea that warren doesn't increase the popularity of the ticket with the "base" (i.e. people who donate, canvass, etc.) more than any other candidate is preposterous.

there's a ton of reasons not to pick her but if your reason is she does not help win the election more than any other possibility, i'd like to hear you're reasoning.

yeah, just off the top of my head kamala harris would be a bigger loser VP choice than warren. i mean would tick the POC box but nothing more

I have my doubts that someone who appealed entirely to upper-middle class white liberals is maximizing Democratic turnout tbh.

(Given that the difference in 2012 and 2016 turnout and share among POC would have won the election for Hillary.)

i mean come on, you can just google this stuff, we don't have to argue about what a bunch of people most of us are nothing like think.

https://www.dataforprogress.org/memos/battleground-poll-results-of-independents-employment-income

"Warren strongly favored by lower-income, unemployed voters and those still unsure about Biden"

i know she's not bernie but be serious.

For women of the stature and intelligence of Warren or Harris, Biden might not be the ideal man to work for. I'm sure they know it.

I don't particularly like or care about anyone being talked about for VP, obviously, but Warren in particular's value seems to be nothing more than a projection by her fans.

same results a month ago too: https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2020/6/22/elizabeth-warren-leads-the-vice-presidential-choice.

Warren's replacement would be appointed by a GOP governor, for one thing

Biden is quoted in that CNN article as saying the four black women are "among" the candidates he's considering. So the list isn't limited to them. I'd be surprised if Warren weren't still in the mix, especially given her polling among both white and black Democrats.

FWIW, Obama administration alums Dan Pfeiffer and Alyssa Mastromonaco recently did a podcast on the VP selection process. At the end, he predicted Biden would choose Harris; she predicted Rice.

Sean McElwee's head of the Warren cult of personality.

do you think he invented 1000 people?

So of course we should discount every bit of polling that Data for Progress produces.

what is with this warren hate kink? still? tiresome as fuck.

Independent voters who report they are at least considering voting for Biden but aren’t enthusiastic about doing so, Elizabeth Warren is the overwhelmingly most preferred candidate by four to one (21 percent, with no other candidate earning over 5 percent)

this is not a house effect like a rasmussen poll. this is either real or it's just total fraud.

Elizabeth Warren’s support is higher among Independent voters earning under $60,000 per year, with her modal supporter earning $20,000-30,000 per year. Harris’s support is higher among Independent voters earning over $70,000 per year, and with her strongest support coming from those earning more than $150,000 per year.

i'm sorry she's not the worst option milo based on your own criteria. must be tough for you.

Yes. We should probably look askance at polling from one of her loudest advocates.

Like name recognition might be a factor?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/us/politics/biden-vice-president-voters.html

I think Warren has much better name recognition than the other veep choices, which is why she gets those poll results (maybe that's a good reason to pick her, idk)

xp gah

Yes. We should probably look askance at polling from one of her loudest advocates.

lmao you are delusional. it's a factor of 5!

Susan Rice has a lot of ability and experience, but as a VP nominee she would have to do something she's never done before: go out and campaign for election to a public office. She's successfully avoided that arena of politics so far and I suspect it is not to her strong point.

I'm sure name recognition is a factor. That's completely different from McElwee personally juking the stats.

She’ll get a cabinet position no doubt.

A brief rundown of recent polls and what to make of them
Polling so far has highlighted two key takeaways. One is that Warren’s and Harris’s respective profiles currently dwarf those of other contenders whose names have been floated, including Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) and Rep. Val Demings (D-FL). The other is that neither lawmaker is a runaway favorite. In the Yahoo News/YouGov and Monmouth University polls, neither Warren nor Harris secured a majority of respondents’ support, a sign that many voters are still open to other options.

Warren has ranked highly in several polls, particularly among younger voters.

In the mid-June Yahoo News/YouGov survey, Warren was up by 6 points with 30 percent support, compared with Harris’s 24 percent. They were followed by Abrams and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), both of whom picked up 14 percent backing. (Klobuchar has since withdrawn her name from consideration.)

As captured by the YouGov survey, Warren’s support isn’t the same across different demographics: She had particularly strong backing among voters aged 18-29 and 30-44, while she and Harris were more closely tied among voters ages 45-64 and 65 and older. Harris and Abrams both led Warren among Black voters, with 25 percent and 22 percent support, respectively, compared with Warren’s 15 percent.

Meanwhile, in Monmouth’s June poll, which surveyed Democratic primary voters predominantly located in Iowa and New Hampshire, Harris was the top choice overall. She picked up 28 percent support, followed by Warren with 13 percent, Klobuchar with 12 percent, and Abrams with 10 percent. The June USA Today/Suffolk poll, conducted more recently, also showed that Democratic voters were most excited about Harris, Abrams, and Warren, in that order.