how accurate can a weather forcast be when its over 7 days ahead?

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Met office site says Reading Festival is going to be drenched!

I'm praying it won't be. Someone who knows about weather make me feel better/worse

― Googley Asearch (Toaster), Wednesday, 17 August 2005 14:49 (twenty years ago)

it's unlikely to be very accurate - I have used longish term forecasting quite a lot this year to plan for holidays etc. and I'd say it almost always changes to a degree, but what that degree is, god alone only knows.

― Markelby (Mark C), Wednesday, 17 August 2005 14:53 (twenty years ago)

i'd be dubious. obviously, you can say in december, 'it will be cold'. but that's 10 days off, and the forecast always changes. but pack wellies, yeah?

― N_RQ, Wednesday, 17 August 2005 14:54 (twenty years ago)

Ha ha ha ha ha, I'm going to be on a nice, dry tourbus! Rock.

― Win A Lie-Down, Mrs. Davies (kate), Wednesday, 17 August 2005 15:00 (twenty years ago)

It can't be very accurate. They compute some models given the current conditions and use some algorithms using chaos theory or summat to come up with hundreds of scenarios and then see which conditions are most likely over the next few days, e.g. if 75% of the scenarios show rain, they'll say there's a 75% chance of rain. But after about 5 days the chaos bits level out the various scenarios so it will look like there's as much chance of one thing as another, so it becomes useless. This is all based on what someone told me about 3 years ago in a pub, so it might not be strictly accurate.

― beanz (beanz), Wednesday, 17 August 2005 15:03 (twenty years ago)

If you are going to Glastonbury, its a 0% chance of accuracy.

― Pete (Pete), Wednesday, 17 August 2005 15:10 (twenty years ago)

From what I can glean from t'net, with the caveat that it looks a fairly mobile setup. Thursday and Friday will be a mixture of sunny spells and scattered showers, high's in the low 20's. Saturday, dry and sunny, high's mid 20's. Sunday, mostly cloudy with scattered showers (looks worst day), high's low 20's. Monday, dry and sunny morning, a few showers later high's low-mid 20's.

― Billy Dods (Billy Dods), Wednesday, 17 August 2005 15:13 (twenty years ago)

Everton Fox is saying that the weather for the last two weeks of August is going to be unsettled. He's a dude I trust.

― jel -- (jel), Wednesday, 17 August 2005 15:38 (twenty years ago)

mostly cloudy with scattered showers

TO BE IN ENGLAND IN THE SUMMERTIME HEY! WITH MY LOVE

― Enrique, naked in an unfamiliar future where corporations run the world... (Enri, Wednesday, 17 August 2005 17:36 (twenty years ago)

to be a lover in the winter! (tony-o, the right stuff, etc.)

― girl from life without buildings (nabisco), Wednesday, 17 August 2005 18:07 (twenty years ago)

(i'm not sure why i just posted that. carry on.)

― nabiscothingy (nabisco), Wednesday, 17 August 2005 18:08 (twenty years ago)

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