Democratic (Party) Direction

he was just like he is now

plus there was something about my medical coverage

An interesting take I have been seeing on Lamb is that, while he ran as a "moderate," he also ran pro-labor and new deal dem on economic issues, and that's what delivered him the win rather than being "moderate." I take everything with a grain of salt when it comes to this stuff because each side wants to believe their politics are the way to win every single election. But it sounds credible.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2018/03/14/labor-delivered-win-democrat-conor-lamb-prevails-district-trump-won-20

― Fedora Dostoyevsky (man alive), 15. marts 2018 21:19 (yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

It doesn't really seem to be supported by the data, because Lamb was elected mostly by the suburbs, the working class areas of the district still went for the Republican. But hey, his pro-labor stance didn't hurt him, so no reason not to go for what's right. The boring thing seems to be, from my spot as a foreign observer, that the right candidate changes from district to district...

what are the odds huh

He went pretty strong for the union vote, and the union guys whom the newspaper and cable channels interviewed believed they were getting a union-leaning congressional candidate. I believe them.

btw karl:

a clown car full of millionaires: the 2016 presidential primary thread

what makes you think that they think he would? what i think they think, and what i think is hard to deny, is that he does not poll as well as either clinton or biden against the other side. obviously that's partly a function of name recognition, but just as obviously it's partly a function of (explicitly "socialist," however democratic) ideology and the fact that he's a brooklyn jew representing one of the (smallest,) most liberal and furthest northern states in america (see also minnesotan norwegian-american Walter Mondale and bronx/queens italian-american Gerry Ferraro, winners of 13 electoral votes, as well as bostonian greek-american michael dukakis, winner of 111 with a texan at his side, neither of whom could call upon a special appeal to the african- or asian-american communities as did far more mainstream illinoisan german/african-american obama, born and raised in the pacific, and neither of whom faced an opponent as abhorrent to the hispanic community as Donald Trump would be but Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio might not). there is some democratic advantage baked into the cake that may mean a win for whomever is the nominee, but as long as victory is subject to doubt, if you care about winning (and the other side's losing), you don't pick the most extreme and relatively unknown outlier in your coalition, you pick a central and well-known/-liked name who will get its diverse membership (a substantial portion of which would not identify with sanders as either individual or ideologue) to the polls and have some marginal appeal to the other side. fairly obvious stuff.

― it's not a tuomas (benbbag), Sunday, 13 September 2015 21:29 (two years ago) Permalink

(...)

Did you actually read what I wrote? It was highly relevant that he was from middle-American Illinois and shares the most predominant ethnic heritage in America (if only because we make such fine distinctions as to the British isles, from which Appalachians don't acknowledge they hail). Or did you think it was because he was "black and socialist and Kenyan" that in 2008 he won neighboring Indiana (only because of the third-party candidate, as in NC, but still), came within 2/10 of a percent in neighboring Missouri, and pushed nearly the entire mountain west leftward, losing Montana by less than 1/2 a percent? That would seem to prove my point that a half-African-American has broader appeal than someone from a more minoritarian white-ethnic heritage like mine, with the substantial number of Democrats who would not vote for him because of his race outweighed by the number of additional African-Americans who turned out on his behalf, as they did in a greater percentage than whites in 2012.

― it's not a tuomas (benbbag), Sunday, 13 September 2015 22:16 (two years ago) Permalink

(...)

the biggest question is the german-american vote. now that obama isn't running, where will they turn???

― 1996 ball boy (Karl Malone), Monday, 14 September 2015 22:57 (two years ago) Permalink

gold

I can't read Sanskrit.

That's colonialist.

“The suburbs” is not necessarily a useful category in determining whether or not labor was a key factor in the vote. You need a little more information than that.

ha! if we're going to go down memory lane, this was fun.

yeah, don't forget that America was intensely concerned with to which precise decimal point obama was of german ancestry rather than widely but shallowly registering the fact of those german roots, well-publicized in connection with the massive speech he gave in berlin in the middle of his overseas tour in the summer of '08 as planned by a very smart campaign famous for its "microtargeting" of the electorate and surely aware of the german-american cast of both the contemporary ethnic composition and historical root culture of the middle america from which he sought to identify as hailing.

obama kenyan roots - About 370,000 results
obama irish roots - About 1,540,000 results
obama german roots - About 8,040,000 results

being a smart-ass means never having to the confront the possibility that i might have identified a perhaps-highly salient political/demographic factor that you had never considered, expressive of my deeper understanding of the electorate/country, i guess.

― it's not a tuomas (benbbag)

(...)

Obama "Kenyan roots" 30,800
Obama "German roots" 6850

Hmmmmm

― a strawman stuffed with their collection of 12 cds (jjjusten)

sorry to dredge up things totally unrelated to anyone who might be posting in this thread, although the condescending tone of the original posts makes me not so sorry

You guys figure out where the German-Americans went yet?

https://www.buzzfeed.com/peteraldhous/trump-and-the-white-vote
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/12/4/1607288/-Did-German-Americans-voting-for-one-of-their-own-help-elect-Trump
http://www.electionanalysis2016.us/us-election-analysis-2016/section-4-diversity-and-division/why-are-the-german-americans-trumps-most-loyal-supporters/

somehow the weirdest thing to me, out of everything, is that you won't just say who you are

by the way, not sure if you read all of that first buzzfeed link you posted, but

https://i.imgur.com/p6ZNQPj.png

The Dailykos article just shows that Trump did well in states that have a high German-American population, many of which lean Republican anyway, without commenting on how well he did with German-Americans specifically, relative to previous candidates. The Buzzfeed article actually says that German-Americans disapproved more strongly of Obama than did other large white American communities, and that people who identify strongly as German-American tend to be more likely to support any Republican, not just Trump.
xp!

The take-away from the Urlaub article also seems to be that the German-American community tends to have conservative leanings generally, not that they identified with Obama and then with Trump because of some kind of ethnic solidarity.

The Buzzfeed article actually says that German-Americans disapproved more strongly of Obama than did other large white American communities

― No purposes. Sounds. (Sund4r), Friday, March 16, 2018 3:41 AM (fifty-eight seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Between September 22 and October 2, 2016, yes.

:-|

best to remove emotions and personal history from the equation and just let hard science settle the score

gabbneb was right
About 6 results (0.32 seconds)

gabbneb was not right
About 19 results (0.52 seconds)

You may have noticed that German-American Donald Trump had been a national political candidate for over a year preceding that poll, and more than five years earlier had started to build that national political profile upon an effort to delegitimize the Presidency and obscure the ancestry of Barack Obama.

gabbneb: "I am the FBI."

*half* German-American

He actually is not "half" German-American. His maternal ancestry is primarily English.

first rule of holes: stop digging

m bison otm

The take-away from the Urlaub article also seems to be that the German-American community tends to have conservative leanings generally, not that they identified with Obama and then with Trump because of some kind of ethnic solidarity.

― No purposes. Sounds. (Sund4r), Friday, March 16, 2018 3:42 AM (eleven minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Was kam zuerst, das Huhn oder das Ei?

https://pa1.narvii.com/6609/4e1cd18d0384e0369c23e3dbcb2d630da0183979_hq.gif

let me just go ahead and do a hard thread reset, this should only take a few minutes

https://i.imgur.com/8xz940A.png

there we go, now we're fresh

People, there's a link just after Bookmark. Use it wisely.

back to the thread topic, i feel this image perfectly encapsulates the spirit of "people who want joe biden to run for president"

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DYL1seNXUAAHcJi.jpg:large

“The suburbs” is not necessarily a useful category in determining whether or not labor was a key factor in the vote. You need a little more information than that.

― Fedora Dostoyevsky (man alive), 16. marts 2018 04:19 (six hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I'm just paraphrasing. How about maps showing that Lamb did much better in areas where a larger percentage was college educated than in areas where a smaller percentage was college educated?

Don't e.g. teachers' unions count as "organized labour"?

well they get summers off

best to remove emotions and personal history from the equation and just let hard science settle the score

― Karl Malone, Friday, March 16, 2018 3:45 AM (nine minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Agreed.

Here was the primary ancestry (per census 2000) in every county that flipped by more than 15 points from voting for Obama in '12 to voting for Trump in '16:
Huerfano, CO: German
Las Animas, CO: Spanish
Windham, CT: French
Quitman, GA: African
Allamakee, IA: German
Boone, IA: German
Bremer, IA: German
Buchanan, IA: German
Cedar, IA: German
Cerro Gordo, IA: German
Chickasaw, IA: German
Clarke, IA: German
Clinton, IA: German
Des Moines, IA: German
Dubuque, IA: German [Dubuque has the highest percentage of residents of German ancestry of any large community in America]
Floyd, IA: German
Howard, IA: German
Jasper, IA: German
Jefferson, IA: German
Lee, IA: German
Louisa, IA: German
Marshall, IA: German
Mitchell, IA: German
Muscatine, IA: German
Poweshiek, IA: German
Tama, IA: German
Union, IA: German
Webster, IA: German
Winneshiek, IA: German
Woodbury, IA: German
Worth, IA: German
Alexander, IL: Irish
Carroll, IL: German
Fulton, IL: German
Henderson, IL: German
Henry, IL: German
Jo Daviess, IL: German
Knox, IL: German
Mercer, IL: German
Putnam, IL: German
Warren, IL: German
Whiteside, IL: German
Delaware, IN: German
LaPorte, IN: German
Perry, IN: German
Vigo, IN: CarpathianGerman
Elliott, KY: "American"
Somerset, MD: African
Androscoggin, ME: French-Canadian
Aroostook, ME: French
Franklin, ME: French
Kennebec, ME: English
Oxford, ME: French
Somerset, ME: French
Washington, ME: English
Bay, MI: German
Calhoun, MI: German
Gogebic, MI: Finnish
Lake, MI: German
Macomb, MI: German
Manistee, MI: German
Monroe, MI: German
Shiawassee, MI: German
Van Buren, MI: German
Beltrami, MN: German
Chippewa, MN: German
Fillmore, MN: Norwegian
Freeborn, MN: Norwegian
Houston, MN: German
Itasca, MN: German
Kittson, MN: Norwegian
Koochiching, MN: German
Lac Qui Parie, MN: Norwegian
Mahonmen, MN: Norwegian
Mower, MN: German
Norman, MN: Norwegian
Traverse, MN: German
Swift, MN: German
Winona, MN: German
Blaine, MT: American Indian
Hill, MT: German
Roosevelt, MT: American Indian
Robeson, NC: American Indian
Benson, ND: American Indian
Ransom, ND: German [ND has the highest German-American population percentage of any state]
Sargent. ND: German
Steele, ND: Norwegian
Thurston, NE: American Indian
Sullivan, NH: English
Salem, NJ: German
Cayuga [Stupid Fucking White Man], NY: Irish
Cortland, NY: English
Essex, NY: French
Franklin, NY: French
Madison, NY: German
Niagara, NY: German
Oswego, NY: Irish
Otsego, NY: German
St. Lawrence, NY: French
Seneca, NY: German
Sullivan, NY: German
Washington, NY: Irish
Ashtabula, OH: German
Erie, OH: German
Ottawa, OH: German
Portage, OH: German
Sandusky, OH: German
Stark, OH: German
Trumbull, OH: German
Columbia, OR: German
Erie, PA: German [Erie is a top-10 large county for German population percentage]
Luzerne, PA: Polish [Luzerne is the only Polish-ancestry-dominant county in America]
Kent, RI: Irish
Chester, SC: African
Corson, SD: American Indian
Day, SD: German
Marshall, SD: German
Roberts, SD: German
Ziebach, SD: American Indian
Cowlitz, WA: German
Grays Harbor, WA: German
Pacific, WA: German
Adams, WI: German
Buffalo, WI: German
Columbia, WI: German
Crawford, WI: German
Dunn, WI: German
Forest, WI: German
Grant, WI: German
Jackson, WI: German
Juneau, WI: German
Lafayette, WI: German
Lincoln, WI: German
Marquette, WI: German
Pepin, WI: German
Richland, WI: German
Sawyer, WI: German
Trempeleau, WI: Norwegian
Vernon, WI: Norwegian [one of the few among the 20 or so counties in which German is the most common non-English language that are not also among those with the highest proportion of Pennsylvania German speakers; the others all voted for Romney in '12, but shifted Republican between '12 and '16 by as many as 45 points]

Here are the states with the largest percentages of German-Americans and the degree to which their margin shifted towards Obama in '08 (from '04) and towards Trump in '16 (from '08) [compare to national margin shifts of +10 and +5, respectively]:

North Dakota (47%): +19, +27 (#4 Trump state)
South Dakota (45%): +13, +21 (#7 Trump state)
Wisconsin (44%): +14, +13 (Trump flipped, Kerry and Gore had both nearly lost)
Nebraska (43%): +12, +10 (#11 Trump state)
Minnesota (38%): +7, +9 (2nd highest college-educated population percentage among these states, highest turnout of any state in both '08 and '16, 2nd-closest Clinton state)
Iowa (36%): +9 (Obama flipped), +18 (Trump flipped)
Montana (27%): +18, +20
Ohio (27%): +6 (Obama flipped), +14 (Trump flipped) (3rd largest of these states)
Wyoming (26%): +8, +14 (#1 Trump state)
Kansas (26%): +10, +5 (3rd lowest non-hispanic-white and 5th highest college-educated population percentages among these states; )
Pennsylvania (25%): +8, +11 (Trump flipped; largest of these states)
Missouri (24%): +7 (Obama almost flipped), +18
Indiana (23%): +22 (Obama flipped), +20
Colorado (22%): +14 (Obama flipped), +4 (highest college-educated and 2nd lowest non-hispanic-white population percentages among these states; hispanic population grew 40% 2000-2010; 4th-highest turnout in both '08 and '16)
Oregon (21%): +12, +5 (4th lowest non-hispanic-white and 6th highest college-educated population percentages among these states; hispanic population grew 65% 2000-2010)
Michigan (20%): +13, +16 (Trump flipped) (4th largest and 5th lowest non-hispanic-white population percentage of these states)
Illinois (20%): +15, +8 (2nd largest, lowest non-hispanic-white and 4th highest college-educated population percentages among these states)
Idaho (19%): +13, +7 (#10 Trump state)

first rule of holes: stop digging

― A is for (Aimless), Friday, March 16, 2018 3:50 AM (eleven hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Agreed

http://i0.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/040/257/timecubeflierimg.gif?1318992465

hey, they got al capone on tax evasion - if moo v goes down for wasting everybody's time with walls of text that give everybody hand cramps from scrolling, i'm fine with that.

If 'German' is the 'primary ancestry' of most counties in the US, that list doesn't necessarily prove much.

bean bag, everything you are talking about can be explained by whiteness and not some 19th century fixation on many generations-removed european nation of origin, distinctions muddied each subsequent generation by the crossfuckin of various "ethnic" whites.

signed, an italian-american on my maternal grandmother's side

Was it over when the German-Americans bombed ILX?

https://imgur.com/a/NMxZW

I think the idea that Obama's popularity had something to do with his German ancestry to be a v fascinating and provocative assertion but I think I need to see exactly how that played out. Do you think there's something about Obama's temperament that he inherited from his mother that resonated w/ German voters? Or do you think they *knew* he had German ancestry and they liked that? (That seems v unlikely to me considering the ignorance of the general populace about far less esoteric information.) What are the dynamics within which this ethnic affiliation/affinity played out?

his thick, nearly impenetrable german accent obv - amazing he ever got anywhere in politics with that but clearly once he reached the national level it was a winner, just look at those percentages

Why, why are you all taking the bait like this. Just give him his SB, add him to your killfile, and move on

bean bag gives this place some pep, no way do i wanna FP him

Old IL senate codger: “Obama—what is that, Irish?”

“It will be when I run for President”

(from Remnick’s Obama bio)

Your ignorance of Harmonic Cube is demonic

Why ban him? He's entertaining and a change of pace from the manifold Trump impersonations and breathless updates.