North Korea must choose either to have a future or to have nuclear weapons "but it cannot have them both"

http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/archives2/003862.html

liberal hawk, bush of ghosts fan

Senior Bush administration officials wanted North Korea to test a nuclear weapon because it would prove their point that the regime must be overthrown.

This astonishing revelation was buried in the middle of a Washington Post story published yesterday. Glenn Kessler reports from Moscow as he accompanies Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice:

---
Before North Korea announced it had detonated a nuclear device, some senior officials even said they were quietly rooting for a test, believing that would finally clarify the debate within the administration.
---

Until now, no U.S. official in any administration has ever advocated the testing of nuclear weapons by another country, even by allies such as the United Kingdom and France.

One of these officials may have been Rice herself, Kessler hints. Rice, he reports, “has come close to saying the test was a net plus for the United States.” Rice has been trying to counter the prevailing view that the test was a failure of the Bush administration’s policy.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/02/24/world/asia/north-korea-propaganda-photo.html

from robert neer's napalm: an american biography

http://i.imgur.com/AnT5LqO.jpg

well why are they so damn truculent

yes remind me why the us took part of the korean war and what "containment" is

George Kennan's corpse to thread

perfected by LBJ, McNamara, Henry K & Tricky Dick in Southeast Asia of course

https://www.ft.com/content/9427a7bc-24e1-11e7-8691-d5f7e0cd0a16

While the US wants to tighten the screw on the Kim Jong Un regime to force it to give up its nuclear programme, China — North Korea’s main trading partner — has argued that basic trade must be maintained to prevent millions of refugees from fleeing a failed state.

JUst come across a book from 4 years ago called The Impossible State by Victor Cha. It was mentioned on a 2013 Stephen colbert episode I caught. Was it any good?
Would like to know more about the state of the country, though that is 4 years ago.

By nearly every standard of description NK has long sounded like a failed state hanging on by the barest of threads to some sort of artificial stability. But wouldn't it take a total collapse to even announce to its citizens that the time to flee is nigh? Regardless, it seems sensible for China to perhaps devise a refugee plan, because such a mass exodus seems inevitable, eventually.

Good read:

http://observer.com/2017/04/north-korea-missile-test-cia/

Then there’s the problem that nobody seems to understand what makes North Korea tick. Most Western “experts” on the regime have no idea what they’re talking about, as I’ve explained, and there’s a very good case that the DPRK actually may welcome confrontation with the United States—even nuclear confrontation. While Pyongyang’s bluster about preemptive nuclear strikes against friends of America (read: South Korea and Japan) sounds far-fetched, it’s best to side with caution and accept that the DPRK really might do exactly that.

a mass exodus seems inevitable

Can't be so sure. NK border security is Donald trump's wet dream. Except they excel at keeping emigrants in, not immigrants out.

xp

one thing that has puzzled me for years now is how surprisingly wrong western media interprets north korea and most of east asia

they seem to not care to engage with north korean scholars

scholars/academics who specialize in north korean politics i should clarify

Has anybody read that The Impossible State by Victor Cha which is a 2013 book by a White house staffer that apparently coversa lotof the history of the country. Just wondering if it is worth picking up.
I just came across it watching through old news satire shows but that was asa serious guest. & I just wonder if it is still worth looking at?

you've asked that twice now and no one has answered so i'll give my two cents

i have not read it and never picked it up because my understanding is that it does not deviate from standard us interpretation of nk and it contains pretty egregious errors

have you read the peninsula question by yoichi funabashi?

i read "the cleanest race" this week and it's a very quick + provocative take on the ideology of the state + regime.

http://www.dailynk.com/english/read.php?cataId=nk00100&num=14480

North Korea is actively using pro-North websites and social media networks to encourage a fear of war in an apparent attempt to influence South Korea's upcoming snap presidential election.

...

It has also been noted that North Korea is actually using the hard-line policy of the Trump administration to influence South Korea's 19th presidential election. North Korea appears to have divided South Korea's presidential candidates into two groups, which it labels the 'peace-seeking group versus violence-seeking group’, and is criticizing the possibility of a preemptive strike.

"North Korea is likely to make the best of the frame of 'war versus peace,' following the Trump administration's mention of a preemptive strike on North Korea. Some predict that reckless military provocations will have the opposite effect. But North Korea appears to be confident in the belief that a fear of war will induce voters to support its best interests," Yoo pointed out.

Some analysts note that the South Korean government should take careful measures against North Korea's blatant electoral intervention. "We should be prepared for limited military provocations by North Korea in its efforts to spread a fear of war during the election period," Yoo added, warning that if the South Korean government responds passively to Pyongyang's provocations, it can expect far greater security threats in terms of Pyongyang's interference with the election.

...

Kim Jin, a former editorial writer at the Korea Joongang Daily, commented at the seminar that, "Now it is a time for the so-called 'strongmen' including Trump of the US, Xi of China and Abe of Japan. But we have an unprecedented power vacuum due to the impeachment of the president. The nature of the next presidency will decide the future of South Korea and its people."

this is an intense time to be alive. so many things seem to be on edge right now.

just bored of strategic patience tbh

hey obama is "breaking his silence"

Barry hasn't been notably silent in this household. We've had about three dozen robo-calls from him since he left office, that all start with a cheery "Hi! This is Barack!"

the book excerpt quoted here a few days ago is pretty chilling. weird how nobody ever talks about the korean war now.

Was this posted/mentioned?

http://www.npr.org/2017/04/21/525010775/nuclear-researchers-spot-north-korean-volleyball-games

DAVID GREENE, HOST:

As North Korea keeps the U.S. guessing about its next moves, American analysts are relying on high-resolution satellite imagery to see what Pyongyang is up to. And for the past eight weeks, they have observed a lot of stepped-up activity at Punggye-ri. This is the same place where five nuclear tests have been staged. And Joseph Bermudez of the website 38north.org says these big loads of dirt have been moved there and that it's a possible sign of tunneling.

JOSEPH BERMUDEZ: This leads us to the conclusion that they have prepared the facility for a new nuclear test. Everything is in place.

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

Bermudez has studied North Korea for 35 years, and he cautions that analyzing satellite imagery is not as simple as just watching for the dump trucks.

BERMUDEZ: North Korea practices what we in the West call camouflage, concealment and deception.

INSKEEP: It could be a head fake for all we know, but Bermudez never expected to see this.

BERMUDEZ: We looked at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Facility, and we identified three volleyball games being conducted.

GREENE: Yes, he said volleyball.

BERMUDEZ: The presence of three groups of people playing three separate volleyball games at the nuclear facility is very unusual. We've seen occasionally one game over the past several years. But all of a sudden to have three is quite unusual.

GREENE: Now, he says this could mean that all the preparations for a nuclear test are complete and the personnel are being allowed some downtime. Or it could be the North Koreans were effectively waving hello to the satellite.

BERMUDEZ: This leads us to the conclusion that they're trying to send a message to us. What that message is isn't necessarily clear. It could be, one, that they're trying to tell us they are not going to test. Two is they could be trying to deceive us into believing they're not going to test but they are going to test.

GREENE: Or three, maybe they just like volleyball.

quality kremlinology there

maybe they have a tournament going on

Xxp

I read that

It's bullshit

Activities for military like that are not unusual

Military are expected to have some outlet outside of military life, especially in down time

The US should call their bluff and challenge them to a volleyball tournament.

Spike in activity

lock thread

we can pause to savor a while when a great wit makes his mark, but ilx marches on and so must we.

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-entire-us-senate-is-headed-to-the-white-house-for-a-briefing-on-north-korea-2017-4

that...doesn't seem good

https://kr.nknews.org/번역완-에어차이나-북경-평양-노선-5월5일-재개/

중국국제항공(에어차이나)이 오는 5월5일부터 베이징-평양 항공편을 운항 재개한다. 이는 지난 3월 말 NK 뉴스 소식통들이 올해 남은 기간 동안 중국국제항공이 해당 노선 운항을 중단할 것이라고 전했던 것과는 상반된 소식이다.

sorry for the korean article. the english version requires membership

air china will resume flights from beijing to pyongyang starting may 5

that...doesn't seem good

― Karl Malone, Monday, April 24, 2017 5:24 PM (ten minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

seems like a first 100 days stunt to me.. but you know its not an accurate measure, or was it really technically 100 days because trump hasnt really been thinking hard about much until recently.

AP story, as written, seems to assume that all 100 senators will obediently go to this briefing, just because all 100 were invited. This is the sort of thing senators resist, because it implies publically that they are not a co-equal branch to the president. The more usual attitude would be "let them come here if they have something to say."

^^^

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/twenty-five-million-reasons-the-us-cant-strike-north-korea/2017/04/21/47df9fea-2513-11e7-928e-3624539060e8_story.html

North Korea has “a tremendous amount of artillery” right opposite Seoul, said Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., a senior imagery analyst at 38 North, a website focused on North Korea.

The Second Corps of the Korean People’s Army stationed at Kaesong on the northern side of the DMZ has about 500 artillery pieces, Bermudez said. And this is just one army corps; similar corps are on either side of it.

All the artillery pieces in the Second Corps can reach the northern outskirts of Seoul, just 30 miles from the DMZ, but the largest projectiles could fly to the south of the capital. About 25 million people — or half of the South Korean population — live in the greater Seoul metropolitan area.

“It’s the tyranny of proximity,” said David Maxwell, who served in South Korea during his 30 years in the Army and now teaches at Georgetown University. “It’s like the distance between Baltimore and Washington, D.C. Imagine a million-man army just outside the Beltway with artillery they could use to terrorize Washington.”

About half of North Korea’s artillery pieces are multiple rocket launchers, including 18 to 36 of the huge 300mm launchers that Pyongyang has bragged about. State media last year published photos of the system during a test firing that Kim attended.

The 300mm guns could probably fire eight rounds every 15 minutes, Bermudez said, and have a range of about 44 miles.

“This could do a lot of damage,” he said. “If they hit a high-rise building with a couple of rounds of artillery, people get into their cars, causing huge traffic jams, so North Korea could target highways and bridges in cascades.”

If North Korea were to start unleashing its artillery on the South, it would be able to fire about 4,000 rounds an hour, Roger Cavazos of the Nautilus Institute estimated in a 2012 study. There would be 2,811 fatalities in the initial volley and 64,000 people could be killed that first day, the majority of them in the first three hours, he wrote.

Some of the victims would be American, because the U.S. military has about 28,000 troops in South Korea. The higher estimates for the 300mm rocket launcher’s range — up to 65 miles — would put the U.S. Air Force base at Osan and the new military garrison at Pyeongtaek, the replacement for the huge base in Seoul, within reach.

This prospect of extensive damage and casualties has restrained successive U.S. administrations, however provocative North Korea has been.

“Every U.S. administration, as they have looked at this problem, has said that all options are available. But that’s not really true,” said Baker, who is at the Pacific Forum of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “We really don’t have a military option.”

forgot to quote one more important detail, which is obvious, but worth reminding:

“It would be terrible, but the war would be over [in South Korea], it wouldn’t be here,” Graham said in an interview with NBC.

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2089944/opinion-chinas-position-north-korea-appears-shift

Blame for the ongoing nuclear crisis is placed foremost on North Korea for pulling out of the Non-Proliferation Treaty; Niu further notes that regime security (ie, the survival and ongoing supremacy of the Kim family foremost) has become more important than state security in North Korea. Like his fellow historian Shen Zhihua, Niu Jun seems to acknowledge the possibility that North Korea could become an enemy for China.

Both Niu and Shen remind us that any assertions in Chinese state media noting that North Korea should be satisfied with Beijing’s guarantees of security are wildly overoptimistic and unrealistic. For North Korea, no externally generated security guarantees will ever suffice and its nuclear programme will forge forward.

good article

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/instead-of-threatening-north-korea-trump-should-try-this-instead/2017/04/23/70119194-2527-11e7-b503-9d616bd5a305_story.html

The one promising thing about Kim Jong Un is that he harbors ambitions to improve North Korea’s economy, and his domestic policies have already generated modest growth. But his first priority is regime survival and national security, and for that, he considers the nuclear deterrent is to be essential (a rational proposition, sadly). Eight years of sanctions and pressure — but for one spasm of diplomacy just prior to Kim Jong Il’s death — did little to disabuse Pyongyang of the sense that it needs nuclear weapons, or to prevent North Korea from improving its capabilities and expanding its arsenal.

The Trump administration proclaims that the Obama approach of “strategic patience” has ended. But if it really wants to start a new era, the way to do so is not by distracting the public with reckless threats of war, while waiting in vain for Chinese President Xi Jinping to bring Kim to his knees. Instead, the prudent move would be to open direct talks with Pyongyang that start by negotiating a freeze on the fissile-material production cycle, return of International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors, and moratorium on testing nuclear devices and long-range ballistic missiles (including satellite launches). In return, the United States should at least entertain Pyongyang’s standing request for suspension of joint military exercises with South Korea. Kim may be willing to accept something less, such as an adjustment in scale. Or he may be open to a different kind of trade — initiating talks to convert the 1953 Armistice Agreement into a proper peace treaty to end the Korean War, for example. The only way to probe these options is to get to the table. With two months of large-scale exercises coming to a close, now is a good time to do so.

A freeze is just the initial move in what needs to be a long-term strategy that changes underlying dynamics and addresses what each side sees as the core of the problem. We cannot really know what Kim wants, and what he might give up to get it, until we initiate dialogue. But since he took power, there have been strong signals that his ambitions go beyond a nuclear deterrent, that his real goal is economic development. Rather than threaten war or deepen sanctions, a more productive path is to nudge Kim down the same road that the major countries in East Asia have all taken: a shift from power to wealth. If Kim wants to be North Korea’s developmental dictator, the United States’ best long-term strategy is to help him do so. We cannot rationally expect him to surrender his nuclear deterrent at the beginning of that process, but it is the only realistic path for getting him to do so eventually.

Now is the time to jump-start a diplomatic initiative that reopens channels, lowers tensions and caps North Korea’s capabilities where they are. Then, working closely with the new government in Seoul and others, the United States should support a long-term strategy that integrates North Korea into regional stability and prosperity. Because the nuclear program is the last budget item that Kim will cut, sanctions only deepen the misery of the North Korean population, and pressure fails to improve human rights abuses on the ground. The best way to alleviate the suffering of the North Korean people is to give them a chance to succeed economically and help open up their country step by step.

By simply inflicting economic pain, threatening military strikes and keeping tensions high, the United States is playing into the worst tendencies of the North Korean system. Kim’s nuclear intentions will harden and North Korea’s capabilities will only grow. It’s time to reverse course.

'It's time to reverse course' = 'Full speed ahead!' in Trumpsylvania.

his first priority is regime survival and national security, and for that, he considers the nuclear deterrent is to be essential (a rational proposition, sadly).

It is sad for the people of NK that they will be the major 'beneficiaries' of regime survival in NK, but anyone who looks carefully at nuclear weapons inescapably concludes that they are total shite as an offensive weapon under current conditions, but most excellent weapons for deterring attack. If it were somehow rendered impossible for them to used by non-state actors or by irrational leaders, then most of their danger would disappear. Because strategically speaking, their only sensible use is to sit idly and deter attack. In this light, NK is acting strategically and rationally. So was Iran. So is Israel. The awful thing about nukes is that simply by existing they could be used. Sometime. Somewhere. By mistake or by miscalculation.

Thank god for the non-proliferation treaty. Because it is the only tool we have for eliminating the obvious rationale for every nation acquiring nukes.

xp

us republicans and south korean republicans pushed to close the kaesong industrial zone back in 2013 i believe

as far as i understand, when it was closed it also meant that the north korean military would leave the major attack route that led to seoul

the us gov't is not completely ignorant, it just likes to play that card to deceive its own people

NYT possibly reprising its Judith Miller shit

@adamjohnsonNYC
The key claim––since repeated by Vox. Yahoo, UPI & others––is attributed to a nebulous blob of "experts studies" and "classified reports".

"Behind the Trump administration’s sudden urgency in dealing with the North Korean nuclear crisis lies a stark calculus: A growing body of expert studies and classified intelligence reports that conclude the country is capable of producing a nuclear bomb every six or seven weeks.

"That acceleration in pace—impossible to verify until experts get beyond the limited access to North Korean facilities that ended years ago—explains why President Trump and his aides fear they are running out of time."

http://fair.org/home/nyts-impossible-to-verify-north-korea-nuke-claim-spreads-unchecked-by-media/

yeah I smell bullshit too