You know, taking you back to the last recession.
― Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 16 July 2008 18:53 (fifteen years ago) link
ok i'm a dunce about all this but bear with me, this is me half-repeating stuff i've read in a several different places
the housing crisis is huge but underlying inflation is part of the cause of it: ppl are more likely to skip out on a mortgage payment than on food or gas. so oil prices are the lurking problem underneath the entire slowdown. oil is more expensive lately but not as much as it seems in the US - oil is priced in dollars and all the foreign producers still want to make they money even tho the dollar is weak.
the dollar is weak because of the terrible fiscal position of the US government (monetary policy is no help here, either that or a relatively loose monetary policy actually hurts too?). our fiscal picture looks so bad because of massive wartime borrowing and spending (the war(s) and concomitant hawkishness re: iran are part of the instability premium on oil as well). the US congress and populace may have itself fooled that running the war off the books in emergency spending bills makes it free, but the economists at every bank and firm on the globe are not stupid -- they are right to not value the greenback very much. so, if we want to fix the economy, we have to end the war?
am i totally amateurishly zmag wrong about this or what
― goole, Wednesday, 16 July 2008 18:58 (fifteen years ago) link
we have to do a lot more than stop spending on shock & awe surge funtime & dinar casino games to fix this shit
I briefly considered taking the day off today to go down in front of the hill and make myself a posterboard sign saying NO BAILOUT but it's really hot
― El Tomboto, Wednesday, 16 July 2008 19:08 (fifteen years ago) link
no bailout rly?
i would like to get all the garbage out of the system and finally see where the bottom is, since that's what everyone seems to want to know. but i also don't want to be selling matches on the corner of marshall and snelling either
― goole, Wednesday, 16 July 2008 19:14 (fifteen years ago) link
Nothing can stop that now.
― Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved, Wednesday, 16 July 2008 19:23 (fifteen years ago) link
http://www.bertdecker.com/photos/uncategorized/wheels_off_jpeg_1.jpg
i plan to offer pencils also
― goole, Wednesday, 16 July 2008 19:24 (fifteen years ago) link
the dollar is weak because americans have spent beyond their means for deacdes and had the rest of the world finance it. the war et al have been catalysts perhaps but as tombot says, it'll take a lot more than no more shock and awe o fix this shit.
china (and to a lesser extent, india) is industrializing like crazy, creating demand for commodities on a quantitively different level than the world has known to date. this means that unless the earth has an abundance of presently unknown natural resources, prices are going to new levels where there are likely to remain.
meanwhile, speaking for russia at least, despite the fact that oil production is down slightly, a significant minority of people i know believe that the nasty secret is that oil companies are not particularly bothered about boosting productino to meet higher demand because the oil they pump next year will fetch a higher price than whatever they pump this year. (admittedly we're starting to see cost inflation cutting into the crazy profits - Gazprom's financials were pretty disappointing last quarter - so that theory may get tested over the next year or so)
― mitya, Wednesday, 16 July 2008 19:35 (fifteen years ago) link
i just lost my job :D
― deej, Wednesday, 16 July 2008 19:38 (fifteen years ago) link
wait i mean http://www.best-of-web.com/_images/080509-131410-727007.jpg
― deej, Wednesday, 16 July 2008 19:39 (fifteen years ago) link
:O
― Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved, Wednesday, 16 July 2008 19:39 (fifteen years ago) link
btw did you guys see the bit about how 10% of china's GDP is in Fannie/Freddie bonds? scary foreign policy angle
― El Tomboto, Wednesday, 16 July 2008 19:39 (fifteen years ago) link
ha we'll curb the yellow menace yet
― goole, Wednesday, 16 July 2008 19:40 (fifteen years ago) link
(I assume most everybody on these threads reads barry ritholtz on the regular, which may be false)
― El Tomboto, Wednesday, 16 July 2008 19:40 (fifteen years ago) link
yes, it's false - what's the link pls
― mitya, Wednesday, 16 July 2008 19:54 (fifteen years ago) link
http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/07/12/too-chinese-and-russian-to-fail/
lol I did not see this was from CFR
― El Tomboto, Wednesday, 16 July 2008 19:55 (fifteen years ago) link
Solution: stop wasting your money on the Internet and high-tech. Apparently.
― Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 16 July 2008 19:57 (fifteen years ago) link
wow that guy is dumb
― El Tomboto, Wednesday, 16 July 2008 20:01 (fifteen years ago) link
But it's Larry Magid!
(Whoever he is.)
― Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 16 July 2008 20:02 (fifteen years ago) link
this is my new .sig file
― Tracer Hand, Wednesday, 16 July 2008 23:39 (fifteen years ago) link
Deej, what kind of job did you lose?
ps that sucks
― Hurting 2, Wednesday, 16 July 2008 23:46 (fifteen years ago) link
deej sorry u lost yr job man!
― J0hn D., Wednesday, 16 July 2008 23:49 (fifteen years ago) link
i was working at a company that gets contracted to write learning materials for other companies
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz but it paid the bills
― deej, Wednesday, 16 July 2008 23:54 (fifteen years ago) link
btw if anyone wants to know how to sell insurance im your man it basically involves scaring the customer into spending more
sorry to hear the news, deej :-(
― Eisbaer, Thursday, 17 July 2008 01:38 (fifteen years ago) link
-- deej, Wednesday, July 16, 2008 7:54 PM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Link
I feel you on that - you're describing the job I did for the last four years and it's still hard for me to leave it to go back to school.
― Hurting 2, Thursday, 17 July 2008 01:39 (fifteen years ago) link
http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/17/news/companies/merrill_lynch/index.htm?postversion=2008071716
― HI DERE, Thursday, 17 July 2008 23:05 (fifteen years ago) link
frack
― mitya, Thursday, 17 July 2008 23:38 (fifteen years ago) link
I'm glad I keep all my krugerands in a safe under the bed
― Shakey Mo Collier, Thursday, 17 July 2008 23:39 (fifteen years ago) link
Bu-bye Citibanc!
― Oilyrags, Friday, 18 July 2008 15:57 (fifteen years ago) link
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/08/01/t1home.unemplt.02.fri.gi.jpg
― Catsupppppppppppppp dude 茄蕃, Friday, 1 August 2008 14:26 (fifteen years ago) link
William Greider offers a provocative history of how we got into this mess, with plenty of blame to go around for Democrats and Republicans:
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080818/greider
― o. nate, Friday, 1 August 2008 15:01 (fifteen years ago) link
<a href=http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/01/news/economy/jobs_july/index.htm?cnn=yes>Working Men are Pissed! The Non-Working ones, too, actually.</a>
― Oilyrags, Friday, 1 August 2008 15:36 (fifteen years ago) link
lol trolling realtor.com for sub-$1000 properties in your area is fucked up
― El Tomboto, Thursday, 14 August 2008 05:06 (fifteen years ago) link
http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?ctid=72&mnp=2&mxp=2&typ=7&sid=c9a92f5e448d4fee801a0d089567be80&lid=1098352596&lsn=3&srcnt=15#Detail
― Kondratieff, Thursday, 14 August 2008 08:09 (fifteen years ago) link
commenters on bigpicture were talking about how for some properties, after paying tax debts associated w/ and fees etc. you're essentially purchasing a negative in real terms, nevermind fucking condominiums moving at "take my house... please" prices
― El Tomboto, Thursday, 14 August 2008 09:08 (fifteen years ago) link
I mean at least with a shithole SFH in a detroit suburb you get the deed to the land
― El Tomboto, Thursday, 14 August 2008 09:09 (fifteen years ago) link
the dollar's at 1.86 against the pound today although i think that's more down to the british economy tanking
― Tracer Hand, Thursday, 14 August 2008 10:17 (fifteen years ago) link
Foresight!
― Ned Raggett, Monday, 25 August 2008 14:23 (fifteen years ago) link
BIN LADEN DETERMINED TO ATTACK INSIDE US MORTGAGE INDUSTRY
― Pancakes Hackman, Monday, 25 August 2008 14:30 (fifteen years ago) link
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=712kRqri2No
― El Tomboto, Wednesday, 27 August 2008 16:26 (fifteen years ago) link
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122109238502221651.html?mod=hps_us_my_companies
haha oh dear
― caek, Thursday, 11 September 2008 15:16 (fifteen years ago) link
http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/253567/if_lehman_collapses_expect_a_run_on_all_of_the_other_broker_dealers_and_the_collapse_of_the_shadow_banking_system
It is now clear that we are again – as we were in mid- March at the time of the Bear Stearns collapse – an epsilon away from a generalized run on most of the shadow banking system, especially the other major independent broker dealers (Lehman, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs). If Lehman does not find a buyer over the weekend and the counterparties of Lehman withdraw their credit lines on Monday (as they all will in the absence of a deal) you will have not only a collapse of Lehman but also the beginning of a run on the other independent broker dealers (Merrill Lynch first but also in sequence Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley and possibly even those broker dealers that are part of a larger commercial bank, I.e. JP Morgan and Citigroup). Then this run would lead to a massive systemic meltdown of the financial system. That is the reason why the Fed has convened in emergency meetings the heads of all major Wall Street firms on Friday and again today to convince them not to pull the plug on Lehman and maintain their exposure to this distressed broker dealer.
― caek, Sunday, 14 September 2008 20:55 (fifteen years ago) link
Meanwhile, gas prices have jumped like $1.00 overnight in places like Knoxville. No idea what it is in portland, around the detroit suburbs it's 4.19/gal
― kingfish, Sunday, 14 September 2008 21:31 (fifteen years ago) link
Goldman and Morgan Stanley aren't nearly as compromised as Lehman is.
If the Fed was that worried about a run on commercial banks like JPM or Citi, they would have been writing a check this weekend like they did for Bear. Or maybe Paulson's just playing for a really slow liquidation.
― Dandy Don Weiner, Sunday, 14 September 2008 23:13 (fifteen years ago) link
so do I put my money in my mattress or not?
― Every Day Jimmy Mod Is Hustlin' (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Sunday, 14 September 2008 23:16 (fifteen years ago) link
Oh, and Lehman is filing for bankruptcy tonight:
NYT:
"According to people briefed on the matter, Lehman Brothers will file for bankruptcy protection on Sunday night, in the largest failure of an investment bank since the collapse of Drexel Burnham Lambert 18 years ago."
― Dandy Don Weiner, Sunday, 14 September 2008 23:18 (fifteen years ago) link
I know at least ten people who work for Lehman in NY. Time to check their Facebook.
― Dandy Don Weiner, Sunday, 14 September 2008 23:19 (fifteen years ago) link
yes tell us of their 'status' updates
― other extremists (deej), Sunday, 14 September 2008 23:25 (fifteen years ago) link
yippee ki yay motherfuckers
― HOOS clique iphones fool get ya steen on (BIG HOOS aka the steendriver), Sunday, 14 September 2008 23:27 (fifteen years ago) link