"Is It Thunderdome Yet?" A Rolling Looming Apocalypse Thread

More than 400 Turn Out for Town Hall Meeting on Drought

DURHAM, N.C. – A capacity crowd of more than 400 people turned out Tuesday night, Jan. 8, for “Will the Water Run Out?” a public town hall meeting on water conservation and the drought hosted by the Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences at Duke University.

Nicholas School Dean William L. Chameides moderated the meeting. He noted that although Durham has weathered worse droughts in the past, including those in the 1920s and the historic 1932-34 Dust Bowl, there is a key difference today.

“The Triangle is now home to millions, not thousands,” Chameides said. “The demand for water has grown along with our population.”

A panel of local experts from Duke, the City of Durham and government agencies joined Chameides at the meeting. They made brief presentations and then fielded nearly an hour and a half of questions from the crowd.

Jerad Bales of the U.S. Geological Survey Water Science Center in Raleigh, explained that although current rainfall deficits are much less than they were in some past droughts, the Flat River, which feeds into Durham’s main water supply, experienced its lowest recorded flows ever in 2007. He said the drought’s sudden onset last fall makes it especially problematic, because a water deficit is easier for cities to deal with if it accrues slowly over a long period of time.

Jackson said that although scientists can’t predict with 100 percent certainty that the hot, dry trend will continue, it is consistent with what global warming models have been showing for the last 10 to 20 years. “Climate change is relevant. It’s coming and perhaps it is already here,” he said.

Miller emphasized that easing off on conservation measures would be a mistake, even if rainfall amounts increase in coming months, because it is likely that area reservoirs will drop rapidly again next summer. He praised the city for its attempts to secure extra water from the City of Cary’s supply in Jordan Lake and said such cooperation between the Triangle’s water systems will be critical to meet future demand and manage limited water resources.

Voorhees said recent rainfalls and the addition of the Teer Quarry reservoir to the city’s water supply has allowed Durham to delay imposing Stage V water restrictions, which could have serious economic impacts on businesses, but he said city officials are closely monitoring conditions and will call for more stringent conservation if needed.

Many in the crowd voiced their concern that voluntary conservation is not enough, and that more needs to be done to prevent the water supplies from running out. Numerous questions focused on the possibility of imposing tiered water rates to penalize heavy water users, or on the impact more than a decade of steady development in the Triangle was having on water quality and availability.

We face some “great challenges” in both the short and long term, Chameides said.

tl;dr amirite

http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2007/12/10/165845/92

don't actually wanna post any of the text of that piece cause that shit will ruin your day/month/year/life if you're not prepared for it.

before i clicked that: i just read the road, i can handle anything.

after i clicked that: oh shit.

Yeah I read it when it first ran and was depressed for like three weeks.

Consciously chose not to re-read before posting the link here.

http://arianeb.com/dategame.htm

lol

After I first read that piece linked to above I spent like an hour googling the author going "This guy is just a wack-job, right? He's just a fringe loony, right? Right?"

dudes trying to sell his doomsday books. hes not even a climatologist.

gotta be zen about that shit. besides theres always a chance we could start a nuclear war first.

Climate-change, government disarray, cybersex & nuclear war.

I'd say this thread is off to a proper start.

gotta be zen about that shit.

i do what i can dawg. : )

lol @ research triangle. Future generations will suffer so we can play golf and have bright green lawns year-round

gather yr apocalypse teams and fuck distraction and self-involvement

TIME TO BUY SOME GOLD EVERYBODY!

But that means you must renounce TV, rrrobyn!

Q: if i was to go to live in the country and grow my own food will i need guns? all the movies i've seen tell me yes.

Of course you'll need 'em. How else will you keep the zombies at bay?

;)

zombies are so fast these days!

dude i just started reading novels again! o_O
we will make our own tv. when we're not too busy dealing with the violence aagh
xpost

i really don't want to be doom & gloom or believe in wackjob ideas but clearly the shit is already going down

T/S SAVE OURSELVES VS. SURVIVALISM

there won't be any apocalypse, just mass death

TOMBOT SATISFIED @ LAST

ive been listening to this in preparation:
http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/41ENK8PF0DL._AA240_.jpg

it will lead to a scenario that eventually gets made into a very bad Kevin Costner movie....

^^^ For that reason alone, it's worth avoiding. I don't want to see that urine recycling scene from Waterworld again.

The Postman is another uniquely terrible post-apocalyptic Costner film.

Kevin Costner in...

"Montana Showdown"

Mel Gibson IS

Dakota: Gun Runner

In like really dark moments I feel like the best reason to keep going despite the shit is that we need hospice nurses for the death throes of civilization.

But fuck me and my melodrama.

ick you just reminded me of that scene from The Day After....

If it bleeds, it leads...

we are fast approaching 2012 people

as my father will tell you the bibles says the world will end in a war w/the yellow race

http://www.cyber-cinema.com/british/SimpsonsThe_BRT.jpg

my favorite movies of the last 18 or so months are: children of men, cloverfield, 28 weeks later, i am legend and war of the worlds

i am legend was really properly unsettling in that respect, def.

I don't think anything's fucking up our nation more than millenarian thinking. It's a big part of the problem, peeps like Bush srsly avoiding change bcz it's "the end times" so why worry anyway. Well, the end times are never, ever coming, folks!

Not them end times anyhow.

No, NONE of them.

I mean if you act like they are it's way more of a self-fulfilling prophecy I think.

Put it this way: I try not to act/think like the sky is falling tomorrow, and nothing would make me happier than dying an old man in a futuristic society happily humming along. But just in case, I'm trying to focus on making people (in my personal life and in small ways at work) happy and comfortable.

I'm also preparing to teach. Assuming some shit goes down in the near future (pre-22nd Century), worst case scenario is that I'll have passed along some of the best work human civilization has produced to one of the last generations. For me, that's a worthy goal.

i hope a super intelligent alien race intervenes before things get too bad

if shit really gets heavy i'm going underground to live w/the mole people

yeah i'm kinda holding out hope for these dudes to save the day

http://transhumanlaw.org/images/singinst.jpg

guys i was an extra in The Postman

/braggin' 08

feel like this belongs here, great piece from Douglas Rushkoff

https://medium.com/s/futurehuman/survival-of-the-richest-9ef6cddd0cc1

that is good, thanks for posting that here

That was an excellent essay and condenses a lot of excellence in a fairly few words. Rushkoff is completely correct in his assessment of the prevailing attitudes among the super-rich and his analysis of what is necessary to stave off the worst possible human future that capitalism and the super-rich seem to be driving us toward willy-nilly.

https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/13047

eyy

can't believe the earth is gonna fart us all to death smdh

shhhhh, don't tell anyone or nasa might lose their funding for this research! the trump administration is doing everything they can to increase methane emissions. they really frown upon research that says that's a bad thing

nice nice

https://www.adn.com/arctic/2018/09/24/across-the-arctic-lakes-are-leaking-dangerous-greenhouse-gases/

Steak-umm...OTM?

why are so many young people flocking to brands on social media for love, guidance, and attention? I'll tell you why. they're isolated from real communities, working service jobs they hate while barely making ends meat, and are living w/ unchecked personal/mental health problems

— Steak-umm (@steak_umm) September 26, 2018

waht

The whole thread is something.

lmao i appreciate you putting that in here ned

barely making ends meat

https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2018/10/15/hyperalarming-study-shows-massive-insect-loss/

the biomass (the dry weight of all the captured invertebrates) had significantly decreased from 1976 to the present day. The sweep sample biomass decreased to a fourth or an eighth of what it had been.

When the base of the pyramid shrinks, what do you think happens to the top?

it migrates to the cloud and some genius invents perpetual motion and saves the day, nothing to worry about

moving over from the Left-wing Drift thread:

I think about prepping sometimes. The biggest problem I have is understanding what exactly I would be prepping for. I could buy a few acres of cheap farmland somewhere, but what's going to protect it from roving gangs of bandits in a true "mad max" type scenario? How will I get water to irrigate it? You can't really grow enough food to feed a family in a small garden plus a little chicken coop. Do I buy guns? Are they really going to be enough to fend off a militia on my own? Better than nothing I guess? I could learn to survive in the woods, but which woods, and how many people are woods really going to support? I tend to think being part of a group is probably the best defense, but what group, where?

― Fedora Dostoyevsky (man alive), Monday, October 29, 2018 10:09 AM (three hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I'm also not completely convinced "collapse" is a thing. Societies reach various states of organization/disorder, but I don't think there's really such a thing as a permanent "collapse." Things would reorganize in some form or other.

― Fedora Dostoyevsky (man alive), Monday, October 29, 2018 10:10 AM (three hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I ask myself very similar questions. To not do anything when I see #doom on the horizon seems foolish but it's unclear what I should do. Someone pointed out to me that surviving the apocalypse is a booby prize since now you have to live in post-apocalypse, which seemed mildly compelling at the time. Learning certain areas of knowledge seem potentially useful (electrical, HVAC, carpentry, agriculture) but the best way to go about acquiring that knowledge is difficult to discern.

― Mordy, Monday, October 29, 2018 10:12 AM (three hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

over on the Chapo subreddit they've pinned a thread of tips/info resources for Brazilians to either get safer or get out and it's a lovely effort but it all just makes me so sad and angry that it's even necessary

― wayne trotsky (Simon H.), Monday, October 29, 2018 10:12 AM (three hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

man alive those are good questions, my answers would be:

food: what you need is a 6-month supply of MREs for yr family. cooking food wastes valuable energy if there's no power. thinking about living off the land is def into "fantasia" territory imo and not productive as short term strategy (but worth some long term thought, sure)

water: use water purifiers, and iodine tablets if necessary. have extra filters for the purifiers, there are hand-pumped ones for camping that are cheap.

guns: shotgun for home defense, handgun for personal defense, .22 for game hunting if u are rural. ymmv, obviously. no, you won't fend of a militia, yes it's better than nothing.

going to the woods: not until your food runs out

other: backup medical supplies if needed

― sleeve, Monday, October 29, 2018 10:20 AM (two hours ago)

The whole subject of how to strengthen one's position to endure economic hard times, or a natural disaster, or a full blown apocalypse, deserves its own thread. The idea that MREs are a universally apt answer to fit anyone's particular needs is extremely simplistic at best. Really, it comes down to sound risk assessment and assigning some part of your (usually tiny) surplus of resources (time and money) to whatever makes the most sense in your personal situation.

― A is for (Aimless), Monday, October 29, 2018 12:50 PM (twenty-three minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

we do have 'rolling looming apocalypse'

― BIG HOOS aka the steendriver, Monday, October 29, 2018 1:03 PM

and also

The idea that MREs are a universally apt answer to fit anyone's particular needs is extremely simplistic at best.

I was addressing man alive and his needs specifically.

let's stay here unless someone really wants a prep-specific thread?

There is a certain, um, coloration attached to putting the subject of preparation into an apocalypse thread. Preparing for more ordinary hard times is of far more use than trying to tackle the whole how-to-survive-the-apocalypse scenario and less associated with survivalists and the paranoid fringe.

eyeroll.jpg

I'm also not completely convinced "collapse" is a thing. Societies reach various states of organization/disorder, but I don't think there's really such a thing as a permanent "collapse." Things would reorganize in some form or other.

― Fedora Dostoyevsky (man alive), Monday, October 29, 2018 10:10 AM (three hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I mean like, despecialization and destructuralization are characteristics we'd apply to any significant social change we'd call collapse: the agreed-upon governing structures unwind & the horizon of life necessarily remodels itself around a decentralized & local way of living. This kind of world, where we're all relying on our mechanical skills to get by on a local basis while the ghost of the US government recedes, isn't one I'd recognize as contiguous with our own society.

have you guys seen THREADS?
there is such a thing as collapse!

^ ya this is what i'm getting at, center cannot hold etc

everybody here has read Octavia Butler's "Parable" books, yeah?

i haven't, actually

I've been worrying about collapse for 17 years (since I first stumbled upon dieoff.org). I was primed to accept the conclusions there, without much resistance, because I saw The Day After, Threads, Testament, and Special Bulletin upon their release as a teen. In decades since, I've read Jared Diamond, Joseph Tainter, David Montgomery, et al.

Civilizational collapse has happened dozens of times in the historical literature. Sometimes by invader, sometimes by resource exhaustion, sometimes by salinity due to irrigation, sometimes by climate change. There's precious little about our civilization that prevents a recurrence. Our collective fictions are no better than those that bouyed the Romans or Persians for millenia.

In the event of civilizational collapse, no one will survive long term without 1) skills valued by others, or 2) a supportive community. Basement dwellers collecting arms and MREs are just a resource to be exploited. We'll pump exhaust down their ventilation. So, be useful to others. And collect heirloom seeds.

Don't worry about guns, worry about water. In the sort of localized collapse many of us will experience in our lifetimes, potable water will be the most likely resource to distinguish survivors from those who died from contagious disease. And as the bottleneck centuries progress, potable water will remain the preeminent resource. A youngster studying potable water civil engineering now may be an important person in a few decades.

Don't worry about guns, worry about water.

this is the best advice i've heard about the future tbh

All collapse scenarios are borderline 'whatever, we're dead anyway' to me, given the nuclear arsenal. If we hit Visigoths sacking Rome levels of collapse and decay, I assume the planet will be obliterated by ICBMs.

no way, i'm confident that every single one of the 10,000+ active nuclear warheads worldwide will be safely disarmed and disposed of in an environmentally friendly way without ever being used, nothing to worry about

eyeroll.jpg

you're rolling your eyes at a guy who has at least 6 months of food (canned, dried, or freeze-dried), about 150 gallons of stored water, plus 6 water filters on hand at all times. We have a cord and a half of wood, a kerosene heater, lots of tents and other camping gear, etc. We have mainly aimed at getting through the Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake (predicted at ~9.1 richter) with the minimum achievable travail and dislocation, but we started discussing major societal risks back during Y2K. One irony is that preparing for the earthquake has probably required more planning and expense than our Y2K preparations, which were maybe a third of what we now maintain.

But the idea of "prepping" in the general population is widely contaminated by the belief that it only pertains to the survivalist contingent, the types who wear camouflage to the grocery store. Getting them to a more reasonable sense of the fragility of the consumer machinery that keeps them comfortable, without sounding like a wingnut, is a worthwhile and strategic approach.

I hope to die right away in any kind of major disaster scenario. In the event of a slower, broader societal collapse I hope to go swiftly in an anti-Jewish pogrom and it looks like that's getting going so I really have no incentive to prep for anything.

xp -btw, a fair bit of our supplies are intended for our neighbors, should they need them.

silby, you can't rely on some convenient falling brick or obliging bigot to do a competent job. if you do plan to check out, I suggest you do some research and prepare to do the job yourself, in a pinch.

I’m not planning on it per se I just have no interest in surviving any such thing, too much work

Aimless: you miss the point again, the eyeroll was w/r/t your pedantry as to the proper thread for this discussion.

I also learned a lot during the Y2K dry run, your setup sounds pretty solid, and I agree with your overall take aside from your usual air of detached omniscience.

Perhaps it would be helpful to delineate some preparedness levels:

1. grab-and-go kit or "bugout bag", something you can take with you that's all in a bag or backpack. Food, water purifier, toilet paper, etc.

2. weathering an extended period of supply disruption or power outage, a.k.a. earthquake prep as per Aimless's setup and what I aspire to be prepared for.

3. trying to survive the end times, which as Sanpaku notes probably has more to do with overall water access than anything else.

I'm mainly interested in the first two, the 3rd is largely speculative at this point aside from, like, thinking about where you live and why.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jun/03/so-much-land-under-so-much-water-extreme-flooding-is-drowning-parts-of-the-midwest

I see these stories (or those about farmers suffering under the trade war) and immediately think, which candidate did they vote for, did their elected reps support disaster relief after Sandy, etc. This political era is costing me my humanity.

Same here. Part of me is glad the people who've helped this all happen are actually starting to feel the consequences, rather than it all happening to Bangladeshis, etc.

https://voiceofaction.org/collapse-of-civilisation-is-the-most-likely-outcome-top-climate-scientists/

climate scientists otm

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/07/vietnam-records-highest-ever-temperature-of-441c

we've reached the beginning of Kim Stanley Robinson's Ministry For The Future cool cool
(I am not as hopeful as KSR about how that turns out)

Yeah iirc he has a lot of faith in India really coming through politically which, lol

https://kval.com/news/offbeat/sriracha-bottles-selling-as-high-as-80-on-ebay-amazon-amid-shortage-crazy-prices-sauce-hot-huy-fong-food-ridiculous-07-13-2023#

that link might seem flippant but imho this is just the tip of the iceberg re: shortages and unavailability

yeah, people who want to sneer at it 'just being sriracha bottles' now will have a rude awakening in a few years

My understanding is they tried to defraud a supplier and that led to their current problems, this isn't a polycrisis story.

Just make your own chili garlic sauce, fresh is best.

I thought I'd read that the sriracha people not only got into a conflict with distributors, but attempted to grow their own supply of peppers and failed, or at least fell short. Anyway, this isn't the first sriracha shortage in the last few years, iirc, and reportedly no other hot sauces or pepper sauces are facing the same supply issues, so I suspect this is indeed something internal.

good to know!

otoh this doesn't sound so great

Tornado damages Pfizer plant in North Carolina, will likely lead to long-term shortages of medicine

Drought affecting Panama Canal threatens 40% of world's cargo ship traffic