Iraq agrees to weapons inspections.

Message Bookmarked
Bookmark Removed
Details still sketchy - http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A25855-2002Sep16.html

James Blount (James Blount), Tuesday, 17 September 2002 03:06 (twenty-three years ago)

It's all very sketchy. The US is already dismissing it, so it's a big 'what now?' question in many ways. It shows that Hussein has rhetorical cards to play as much as Bush does, to be sure.

Ned Raggett (Ned), Tuesday, 17 September 2002 03:20 (twenty-three years ago)

I dont think Bush wants to hear this. I think he will attack anyway.

Mike Hanle y (mike), Tuesday, 17 September 2002 03:39 (twenty-three years ago)

I am figuring that myself...but here's the thing: for all the 'we'll do it alone' stuff, he can't. He's got to have some sort of coalition backing, just in operational terms alone, and his brain trust knows that as well. In some respects all the belligerence on the US admin's part is to keep the pressure on rather than actually trying anything solo.

Ned Raggett (Ned), Tuesday, 17 September 2002 03:45 (twenty-three years ago)

He might go ahead and "attack anyway" if it's going to take 6 months to get inspections going.

If Iraq is saying they'll accept inspectors unconditionally, then there should be inspectors on the ground there tomorrow, doing whatever it takes to guarantee disarmament. I don't want to hear anything about it taking 3 months or even 1 month to get at team ready. Somebody on our side knows where to look and can be on a plane tomorrow. Unreasonable delay means Saddam gets more time to continue his WMD program.

Ned: I think that we already have all the absolutely vital operational and logistical support we need. "Going it alone" just means without the overwhelming international coalition force we had in 90-91.

Stuart, Tuesday, 17 September 2002 04:02 (twenty-three years ago)

and without UN support...

Stuart, Tuesday, 17 September 2002 04:03 (twenty-three years ago)

Poss: Saddam cannot appease the U.S., so Saddam appeases the dove-end of the West, which tempers the hawks. "Delay" starts at the back door?

nabisco (nabisco), Tuesday, 17 September 2002 04:09 (twenty-three years ago)

"Going it alone" just means without the overwhelming international coalition force we had in 90-91.

My point. That's precisely why they can't go it alone -- especially if anything ends up going wrong. Then it's not just the US with egg on its face (or worse). The diplomatic, political etc. reasons for getting governments on its side are present and clear -- otherwise Bush would have never bothered with going to the UN.

Ned Raggett (Ned), Tuesday, 17 September 2002 05:16 (twenty-three years ago)

The second world war could have been bloodless if Churchill and Hitler, both amateur painters, had agreed to let the better artist (adjudicated by a panel of acknowledged art scholars) be declared the winner. I think in the case of Bush and Saddam, they should both submit novels. A panel of literary judges would decide whose was better. Saddam has already published one. Bush would have to get to work immediately on something proving beyond all doubt US superiority in the literary field. To make sure his book wasn't ghostwritten, and to improve his concentration, he would have to be confined to an isolation cell in the basement of the UN building in New York until he finished. He would be permitted whiskey and a soft soundtrack of Bach, but no pretzels and no TV.

Momus, Tuesday, 17 September 2002 05:31 (twenty-three years ago)

I think in the case of Bush and Saddam, they should both submit novels.

Fuck that, they both have to start fresh. Let's see who can make the better ILX movie. ;-)

Ned Raggett (Ned), Tuesday, 17 September 2002 05:40 (twenty-three years ago)

Well, you know what they say: give a chimp a 70mm Panavision camera and he'll eventually produce the entire works of Stanley Kubrick.

Momus, Tuesday, 17 September 2002 05:54 (twenty-three years ago)

Even Barry Lyndon?

James Blount (James Blount), Tuesday, 17 September 2002 06:35 (twenty-three years ago)

I read this book...
World War 1: A Crowned Princes of Europe Production
World War 2: This time it's really war
World War 3: Return of the Dead-Eyed Fanatics

admittidly it was a fantasy book but they got it pretty well accurate i reckon. Of course there's always my insane arab grandma who has already dusted off the coloured headband. watch out for the insane old ladies. they will win the war.

bri (bri), Tuesday, 17 September 2002 07:13 (twenty-three years ago)

Does anyone know what the 'conditions' Iraq wants to weapons inspections are?

Tom (Groke), Tuesday, 17 September 2002 07:41 (twenty-three years ago)

i heard it as unconditional

bob zemko (bob), Tuesday, 17 September 2002 08:05 (twenty-three years ago)

I've yet to see a really detailed account (supposedly unconditional, with several conditions), and the White House is already skeptical which might mean something (ie. there's reason to be skeptical) or nothing (ie. Saddam called their bluff), but the market reaction, oil prices tumbling, etc., leaves me cautiously optimistic. What I hope is that the inspections agreed to are meaningful (ie. not anything like the previous ten years), Bush gets to claim victory, and Hussein gets to stay in power / alive. There are already claims that this is a delay tactic and nothing more from the hawks, and I can only hope Bush will be smart enough (contain yourselves) to take advantage of the opportunity. His speech at the UN and the build-up to it combined with his cornering the Dems into backing his argument by threatening to keep them out of it altogether (Daschle - "we demand the right to rubberstamp") strike me as a smarter strategems than I'd've figured in him (or Andrew Card). Again, cautiously optimistic...

James Blount (James Blount), Tuesday, 17 September 2002 08:17 (twenty-three years ago)

And the Saudis caving is definitely what made Saddam blink.

James Blount (James Blount), Tuesday, 17 September 2002 08:39 (twenty-three years ago)

For anyone who wants more depth on the inspections question I'd recommend this article in the New York Review of Books, How Not To Fight A Dictator. It's a couple of years out of date, but documents usefully how the UN weapons inspection process, effective at the outset, got undermined by CIA operatives turning it into a bungled spying operation.

Momus, Tuesday, 17 September 2002 08:41 (twenty-three years ago)

Undermined and bungled are understatements.

James Blount (James Blount), Tuesday, 17 September 2002 08:44 (twenty-three years ago)

The "conditions" are more like "red tape" - Iraq's letter talks of being ready to discuss 'the practical arrangements'. Iraq may well have done enough though to prevent a new UN resolution. Russia is apparently saying a new one is not now needed.

Jeff W (Jeff W), Tuesday, 17 September 2002 08:52 (twenty-three years ago)

Pootie-poot! If Bush is smart he'll ask for everything and more, beyond weapons inspections into human rights reforms, political reform (now I'm being wildly optimistic). Again, make reasonable demands - demands even the French could get behind, put the pressure back on Saddam, and either he gives in or he gives out *ducks*. Either way Bush wins, though I have no doubt this latest development blindsided them. At the very least, it buys Saddam time.

James Blount (James Blount), Tuesday, 17 September 2002 09:03 (twenty-three years ago)

do you think it blindsided them? that wd be quite odd: i haf nevah believed the BUSH WANTS WAR REGARDLESS line (partly bcz how wd we know the diff between War-as-Threat and War-as-Inevitability? even if the threat is only being deployed to make saddam change policies, it still has to be believable: there's no way "we the people" can be signalled it's a bluff w/o baghdad also twigging... )

(re "it's all about OIL stupid": yes but oil is still way better accessible longterm via a stable market-economy democracy than an imposed puppet autocracy => i don't have a problem w. analysing the white house in terms of gambling short-term on dodgy rationalised options — what other lesson cd a history of its inventions teach us? — but i refuse to believe in one that simply says HAHA THE PERFECT SOLUTION IS THE ONE WE TRIED IN CUBA AND VIETNAM IN THE 50S and IRAN IN THE 70S* => already the right's leery eye has turned towards saudi arabia as a future difficulty, as in, in 1990 the extant regime gave the US airbases, in 2001 it gave the US al qaeda...)

*(not to mention Iraq and Afghanistan in the 80s... OK lessonlearning is still not a US strong point, but this is nevertheless one of the undercurrents of argument going on in the Oval Office: the hawks being the unblooded boomers, my guess...)

mark s (mark s), Tuesday, 17 September 2002 09:23 (twenty-three years ago)

It's all about who controls the Congress. Stupid's handlers, and his media flunkeys, have all but said so. Wonder why no-one's talking about Enron, the stock market, or Arthur Anderson anymore?

Tad (llamasfur), Tuesday, 17 September 2002 09:27 (twenty-three years ago)

(the other thing bush snr was shafted by was the economy, of course, and his victory overseas cut him no slack here: "no-one's talking about Enron, the stock market, or Arthur Anderson" only means that op eds have dropped it as a topic, not that the problems and the effects have gone away, given the pan-structural scale of these, or indeed that ppl's judgments in re same have been more than temporarily set aside)

mark s (mark s), Tuesday, 17 September 2002 09:38 (twenty-three years ago)

I don't think Bush wants war regardless (despite the initial reaction, and I can understand his wanting a Security Council resolution regardless; it was hard enough to sell the first time), but I don't think they anticipated this response from Saddam. The hawkish commentators I've seen have been blindsided by this - they didn't have any canned responses ready.

James Blount (James Blount), Tuesday, 17 September 2002 09:55 (twenty-three years ago)

And re: Tad's assertion that this has been engineered with an eye towards the midterms: why has the war's strongest congressional criticism come from the right?

James Blount (James Blount), Tuesday, 17 September 2002 09:57 (twenty-three years ago)

commentators = pundits or in-the-fray politicians? pundits being blindsided surprises me NOT AT ALL

mark s (mark s), Tuesday, 17 September 2002 10:00 (twenty-three years ago)

Issue with Saddam's letter, which the US will probably exploit: the letter offers the inspectors unconditional entry into Iraq, but is silent on the issue of the inspections themselves. There is no evidence that the inspectors have unconditional inspection powers under the proposal.

My crack-pot theory: the US's main reason for playing bully boy here is to set a precedent of unilateralism. Like Israel gaining retrospective consent to bomb Iraq in '81, building a non-UN coalition of likeminded countries to invade Iraq will establish the US as the one big international player of the West unfettered by the UN. If the international community is too suspicious to support unilateralism, the next best strategy is to bully the UN without putting forward its case in anything approaching a concrete manner. If Bush can't bypass the UN completely, at least he can attempt to turn it into an uncritical rubber stamp.

Tim Finney (Tim Finney), Tuesday, 17 September 2002 10:46 (twenty-three years ago)

In his speech last Thursday, Bush basically said "If you won't join us in confronting this unilateral, uncooperative liar about all his violations of all your resolutions, then why are we all here? Join us in legitimizing yourself and the weight of this Assembly, or go home -- for good."

Stuart, Tuesday, 17 September 2002 11:45 (twenty-three years ago)

But Stuart he's not saying 'legitimize yourselves' is he? Because that would imply he was ready to take action against Israel and *its* resolution dodging (or China for that matter) in support of the UN, and he's not.

Basically the UN is a flawed and compromised means of getting things done and it doesn't always get them fully done but it's still the only international-consensus means of doing them that there is. The UN's preferred method of confronting Saddam is sanctions not force - you may not agree with that method but to suggest, along with Bush, that it's doing nothing in support of its resolutions is wrong. Bush is totally entitled to want to change the UN's preferred method of course, and that's what he's doing.

Tom (Groke), Tuesday, 17 September 2002 12:19 (twenty-three years ago)

The letter's actually kind of amusing to read - "I am pleased to inform you of the decision of the Government of the Republic of Iraq to allow the return of United Nations weapons inspectors to Iraq without conditions." It reads like spam.

James Blount (James Blount), Tuesday, 17 September 2002 13:24 (twenty-three years ago)

I hear the Iraqi Finance Minister has several million dollars he wants to put in your bank account for a few days.

Tom (Groke), Tuesday, 17 September 2002 13:27 (twenty-three years ago)

His name is Buddy Mugabe.

mark s (mark s), Tuesday, 17 September 2002 13:29 (twenty-three years ago)

It's possible that Saddam is gambling on stalling, hoping that either the US 'war against terrorism' moral tide might ebb, or that Bush turns his attention elsewhere, to a less compliant target. If Iraq genuinely allows free inspection, the US's argument is demolished and what little support there is for attack vanishes - but if the UN can determine that Iraq does not have weapons of mass destruction with which to supply terrorists, why would the US want to attack?

On the other hand, they've toppled the evil Afghan regime, they've faced down the evil bully Saddam and made him back down, bring on the next one! Momentum, being proved right, keep the adrenaline flowing, continue to pursue terrorists to and through their havens and their suppliers. Who/where might be next in line?

Martin Skidmore (Martin Skidmore), Tuesday, 17 September 2002 17:23 (twenty-three years ago)

He's saying "legitimize yourselves" in much the same way he told the Taliban that we'd leave them alone if they handed over Osama & Friends -- something they couldn't actually do, even though they "wanted" to.

Iraq hasn't actually complied with anything yet - they just wrote a letter. I think they're stalling because that's what they've always done. Iraq verifiably disarms immediately, or we do it for them. No more waiting. No more games of diplomatic Tag.

Stuart, Tuesday, 17 September 2002 17:40 (twenty-three years ago)

What do people think about Scott Ritter (ex top-dog weapons inspector for UNSCOM)? For a couple of years he's consistently called the inspections issue a total scam. In the current issue of, uh, Vice Magazine he says that "for all the rhetoric President Bush has put forward about insisting that Iraq allow weapons inspectors back in, understand that the return of weapons inspectors is actually poison for American policy objectives vis-a-vis Iraq. It's never been about Iraq's weapons of mass destruction, it's always been about the elimination of Saddam Hussein. The last thing we want is the light shined on the reality of the status of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction program."

Tracer Hand (tracerhand), Tuesday, 17 September 2002 18:10 (twenty-three years ago)

He was a fairly vigilant inspector, too vigilant for Clinton. Still, he's been out of the loop for several years, and is probably (understandably) bitter with how the whole inspections process was bungled in the first place (see NY Review O' Books article linked above). Vice magazine printed this?

James Blount (James Blount), Wednesday, 18 September 2002 01:10 (twenty-three years ago)

Yes. It also printed an interview with the NYC tagging squad "Irak." Excerpt:

VICE: The embargoes are a funny thing. Both sides get to use them as a bargaining chip. Saddam gets to say, "Look at what America is doing to our people. They won't let them eat" and America gets to say, "Look at what Saddam is forcing us to do to his people. He won't let us let them eat." It kind of represents a new era. Not since monarchies have governments been so separated from their countrymen. It's like they have nothing to do with each other. Like that old saying: 'When elephants fight it's the grass that suffers.'

Irak: What?

All the articles on Iraq are accompanied by pictures of young people with half their clothes off shooting military weapons at night, somewhere in the countryside of America.

I think there was some kind of amateurish spying going on with some of the inspectors which fucked the whole thing up. The CIA bears a lot of responsibility for the process getting semi-permanently suspended. Iraq sees all of them as spies, even Ritter.

Tracer Hand (tracerhand), Wednesday, 18 September 2002 05:45 (twenty-three years ago)

Well when it's your job to poke around somebody else's country and make sure they have no WMDs, isn't it kinda pissy of them to get all offended about being spied on? I mean I'm sure Saddam hated the whole thing to begin with, but that's why he shouldn't have lost the war. Who decides which secrets Iraq gets to keep?

Why us... over here... with the big bombs, and all the jets, that's who.

Stuart, Wednesday, 18 September 2002 11:29 (twenty-three years ago)

cue Buffy St Marie with a langorous yet chilling version of "where have all the flowers gone?"

ghostly wilbur, Wednesday, 18 September 2002 12:13 (twenty-three years ago)

seven years pass...

What do people think about Scott Ritter (ex top-dog weapons inspector for UNSCOM)? For a couple of years he's consistently called the inspections issue a total scam. In the current issue of, uh, Vice Magazine he says that "for all the rhetoric President Bush has put forward about insisting that Iraq allow weapons inspectors back in, understand that the return of weapons inspectors is actually poison for American policy objectives vis-a-vis Iraq. It's never been about Iraq's weapons of mass destruction, it's always been about the elimination of Saddam Hussein. The last thing we want is the light shined on the reality of the status of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction program."

― Tracer Hand (tracerhand)

http://www.cnn.com/2010/CRIME/01/15/un.inspector.ritter.arrest/index.html?hpt=Sbin

:-/

read a book this dude wrote a few years ago. takes all kinds to be pedos, i suppose.

A™ machine (sic) (omar little), Monday, 18 January 2010 20:46 (sixteen years ago)


You must be logged in to post. Please either login here, or if you are not registered, you may register here.