Rank 20 active players on potential HOF induction

Some guys who have been ignored, but stand at least as good a chance as Larkin - Biggio and Bagwell.

Roger Clemens—The best power pitcher career since Seaver. His late career playoff success and those Cy Youngs added a star power a starting pitcher hasn’t had in a LONG time.

Barry Bonds-- Yadda yadda yadda…if hard evidence ever comes out on the roids, he might end up outside with Rose. No matter what, Bonds is going to be a controversial hall of famer, which probably is ok with him.

Randy Johnson—The most dominating left handed starter since Carlton. Won’t win 300 or get the gaudy numbers (except Ks), but the way he pitched in that Series against the Yanks signed his ticket.

Rickey Henderson-- The best leadoff hitter ever. Rickey luster is a bit weird, as he has played for over ten years beyond his peak. Rickey also likes to talk about Rickey. When he was in his prime, the guy was an absolute FREAK of nature.

Greg Maddux-- 300 wins and about as consistent a career as you can get. Winning a World Series in Chicago would make him legendary, if he gets a big win. He has the kind of pitching arm and attitude that could maintain being a good working pitcher well into his 40s, if he does that, he might win over 350 games, which puts him in company with the really big guys.

Close:

Tom Glavine- I think you have to consider Glavine one of the best starters of the past 25 years, but I think how he will be remembered is based on how he does in the next couple of seasons. A couple of 8-14 years might cloud the waters a bit, he still would probably have the resume, but it might take a few years.

Roberto Alomar- He will play long enough to get 3000 hits, but the sportswriters will never forget him spitting on that ump. He’ll probably get in, especially if he rings up 3k hits, which is very possible.

Rafael Palmeiro-- If he continues to be consistent, the guy is going to end up over 3k hits and perhaps 600 HRs. That is a mind boggling career for someone who is best known for hocking Viagra. Palmeiro has never been a force in the playoffs or really a major star, which will be a tag on his career.

Hard to Call:

Barry Larkin- Take out Cal Ripken, Ernie Banks and A-Rod and the shortstop position is usually judged much different than any other position, it usually known for solid defense. Good news! Larkin has three gold gloves and would have one more if is wasn’t for Ozzie Smith. Good news! The guy is a classic star who played his entire career (until probably this summer when the Reds dump him) in his home town and even won a world series. Bad news! How much of this will be remembered six years after he retires? I definitely think he is a hall of famer, but will sportswriters in Seattle or Florida? I’m sure the vets committee will never forget him as a player. Larkin is a class player.

Fred McGriff- The guy is pretty classy and was a good power hitter before baseball’s numbers got all funky. He probably is a hall of famer, especially if he gets 500 dingers, but he might be a guy that will have to wait a while.

Sammy Sosa-- Sosa has had a run of hall of fame numbers playing in one of the games more storied clubs. If he continues to play well for another few years, his stats are going to be freaky. If he wins a world series with the Cubs, it will be remembered as long as baseball is played. If it comes out that he is on the roids that and the corked bat are going to be remembered. I think he will lose hall votes just for the corked bat and the appearance of maybe being on performance enhancing drugs.

Too Early to Tell:

Mike Piazza-- He is the best hitting catcher ever. (Not the best catcher ever, that is probably Bench who could hit with more power and in his prime was as good as it gets with the glove.) That being said, unlike most hall of fame catchers, he isn’t that great with the arm, especially in the past few years. Piazza really wants that all time HR record for catchers, but he is a defensive liability, which isn’t exactly being a team player. Yogi Berra played in the outfield for quite a few years. That being said, the guy can hit for average and power unlike any catcher before him. I think he will have to play a few more years or win a series to completely seal his trip to the hall.

Alex Rodriguez-- The guy has been the best overall player in baseball since he busted out in 96, but if he has some freak injury and his career ends tomorrow, does he get into the hall? Maybe yes, maybe no.

Ken Griffey Jr.-- You can never go home – that is so very true. He is still young. If he can get into the AL, where he can get some at bats as a DH and stick for a few years, Griffey could overcome the past few years. If he continues to flame out, with the crab act overshadowing memories of “the kid”, he will be remembered, but I doubt that he will get into the hall. The guy used to be a TERROR as a clutch hitter, remember that playoff series against the Yanks?

Pedro Martinez—The guy is one of the best pitchers ever with just at times un-hittable stuff, but I think his hall resume needs a second act. As I pointed out in a Clemens thread, he is the same age as Roger was when he was “washed up” and left Boston. I think he needs to have a few more solid seasons or be the guy that leads Boston to a World Series win to finalize his hall entrance.

Mike Mussina-- Moose is good, but he has been kind of shaky in the playoffs and has never won 20 games. I suppose he is similar to someone like Don Sutton, except with a much higher ERA. If he can stay healthy and productive to the age of 40, he has an outside shot at 300 wins. What would ensure his entry to the hall would be having a couple of big wins helping the Yanks win a couple more world series.

Gary Sheffield— I think how Sheffield’s stay in NY will be answer whether he gets into the hall. The guy is definitely not going to win votes for being a nice guy, but if he puts his stats up near someone like Frank Robinson, which is not out of the question, and wins a ring or two with the Yanks, the writers are going to have to stuff it and put him into the hall. Sheff has some injuries and being a pain might lead him to get dumped on the outside without a job, so he might not make the hall, which will piss him off to no end.

Frank Thomas (Jeff Bagwell – he also should be on this list.) -- These guys have nearly put up identical career records and are the same age. The Big Hurt was a better player at his peak, but Bagwell has been more consistent. If they can continue to play well in their mid to late 30s and/or finally have some playoff success, they will get to the hall of fame. Would Stargell be a hall of famer without “We Are Family’ and that great 79 season? Maybe…maybe not. If not…they will be close.

Craig Biggio (not on the list)—If he can be consistent and play well for another four years or so, he is going to get close to 3k hits. I think if Bagwell, Biggio, Clemens and Pettitte put together some magical World Series win, it will shine a whole lot of light on Biggio and Bagwell, and will give them a bunch more luster and perhaps a plaque at Cooperstown. Biggio has been an allstar at three positions (C, 2b & OF—what a combo) and also has four gold gloves at 2b.

Jim Thome (not on the list)- This guy is 33 and already has 381 HRs. Thome is in his prime and with three more big years could be 36 and over 500 hrs. If he continues to play at a high level into his late 30s and/or wins a series in Philly, I think he will become someone mentioned for hall membership. If you compare his stats, they are very similar to Willie McCovey and Harmon Killebrew.

Won’t make the hall:

Juan Gonzalez-- He cannot stay healthy and has acted like an ass, so I doubt that he will get the big numbers that usually ring the bell. He is the modern Dick Allen.

Larry Walker-- The guy is a great hitter, but I think unless he puts up the magic numbers of 3k hits or something of the like, people are going to point out his stay in Colorado. I doubt he will stay healthy long enough to get 3000 hits or 500+ hrs. He also doesn't have any big playoff experience. Andre Dawson had a good career and also had a great arm in the outfield, but I don’t think he is ever going to get into the hall or if he does it will be with the vets committee.

ack...such crap.

I think Dawson, Jim Rice and (gasp) Steve Garvey are players that will perhaps get into the hall once they are up for vets committee balloting.

But that shouldn't and will not invalidate the first part of Bonds's career, especially since you can't retroactively hold it against him (if in fact he did juice) since there were no rules against the juice prior to last season. It'd be like taking away Caminiti's MVP award

Checking it out, Juan Gonzalez is still only 34. Hard to believe, but true, considering how long he has been in the majors. I still doubt that he will be able to keep everything together, but he has 429 jacks allready. If he gets his act together, I suppose it wouldn't be much to get to 500. Jose Canseco definitely put up hall of fame numbers up to the age of 34, but after that didn't do squat except become a punchline. I might have to move Juangone up to wait and see.

Chipper Jones is also half way to a hall of fame career. He is 31 and has over 1588 hits, 280 Hrs, 943 rbis in nine full seasons. If he can stay healthy and consistent, which he has been since coming into the majors, he has a good shot at a hall of fame career. Going from numbers at the baseball-reference site, his stats are slightly better than Bonds at the same age. I tend to doubt Chipper is going to hit 73HRs at age 36, but he could still put up close to 3000 hits and 500 hrs.

Manny Ramierez career hitting stats are similar to Chipper and are the same age. Manny is probably too muy loco to be able to keep it up till he is 40. He is to likely to have some freak accident with a dentist, bar fight or a satillite dish and end his career.

Nomar and Jeter are both also about half way to a hall of fame career. If both they stay healthy, productive and winning; I see no reason that they won't be considered. They much further off than anyone else I have mentioned.

And that matters for stat inflation, too. Palmeiro's numbers (or whomever's) might not be enough, when he doesn't have a superstar/winner image. The Hall is going to have to get more selective, or start inducting way more people.

If Bill James concepts (sabremetrics, win shares, etc.) really pay off for the Red Sox, I think they could become key, though.

Bill James in his books talks a bunch about peak performance versus career performance, which makes sense. Jim Rice at his peak performance was as good and devestating a hitter that played the game, but his career was pretty much done around age 33, where guys like Aaron, Mays and others continued to play at a very high level to around age forty.

Pitchers are not quite held to those rule book numbers, as many great ones just don't end up playing long enough to put them up. Gibson, Palmer, Koufax and a bunch of other hall of fame starters never won 300 games, mostly as injuries and wear and tear ended their career a few years early.

The percentage numbers are probably more telling, but you they can't beat the freakitude of Rose having 4256 hits, Ryan's 5714 strikeouts, or Cy Young's 511 wins. Think about it: you would have to play 21 years and average 200 hits a year to even get a shot at Rose or 19 seasons of 300 ks to get to Ryan or 25 wins a year for 20 years to get to Cy Young. Other than the outlandish single season performance of in slugging or ERA, it just doesn't seem quite as mind boggling.

I really hope this linkie thing works - <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/rosepe01.shtml">PETE ROSE</a>

He hit .325 at 40?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/rosepe01.shtml

1990 the Reds pitching fell into place (they picked the last part of the nasty boys troika) and they won it all with Lou at the helm.

*sigh* Wins wins wins -- you guys know that pitchers don't actually WIN games, right? I even heard Joe Morgan say last night that pitchers lose games on bad breaks all the time... Moose would have several 20-win seasons with decent run support.

Mussina has pitched about as well in the postseason as Andy Pettitte has, but just hasn't been scored for as much. Three more typical seasons and he's in the HOF.

McGriff is not a Hall of Famer. Palmeiro has a stronger case, but we're getting to the point where 500 HR won't be a lock anymore.

Larkin has suffered from the Shortstop Boom.

Jeter needs a second-half-of-career renaissance, even if the "Moneyball is heresy" crowd never notice he's terrible defensively.

Deserving HOFer who will be criminally neglected in the balloting: Tim Raines.

as long as character is a quality for induction, mr. "i slide head first so i don't break the coke vial in my sock" raines shouldn't hold his breath. fair or not those are the rules and until they're changed... well, then he'll be overlooked for his on-field accomplishments.

How can one "not imagine" Bagwell as a HOFer, when he and Big Hurt not only have nearly identical offensive stats, but Bags doesn't disgrace himself with the glove?

i don't think jeter needs a renaissance, especially since he hasn't even started declining offensively yet. he's been the undisputed leader of the latest yankees dynasty, and has put up fantastic offensive numbers. people really need to stop comparing him to his peak/fluke '99 season. he's been compltely consistent aside from that. i think the one thing he needs to do to cement his induction is move, preferably to centerfield, and soon.

and though again i warn i'm shit at HoF evals, moose seems more like a "really really good pitcher not quite good enough for the hall" then a lock to me. definitely a few ballots down the road, anyway. i'd say he's a notch above david cone, whatever that means.

i don't, i really really don't. give me a guy who likes to imbibe a little too much or likes a smoke now and then over a bible thumping religious freak anyday. put them in the hall based on what went on between the lines, leave the judgment of character to the civic organizations.

Mussina: 15 starts (5-5)
Pettite: 30 starts (13-8)

Tim Raines at his peak was as good as Henderson as a lead off hitter, except he had a better arm and a bit more power. The guy played the game at full speed, but maybe the problems off the field also is why he was injury prone as he got older.

i wouldn't mind going back some time, i'm sure there's a ton of stuff that i missed when i was 15. and i'd bring golf clubs this time, there seemed to be nothing but golf courses around there from what i remember.

Here is a link to his stats:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/raineti01.shtml

As for his character, Rock was very highly regarded by Torre and was kept around for another year by the Marlins as a mentor player. As with many players in the 80s, he probably liked to party, but I definitely wouldn't put him in the same boat with Steve Howe or Strawberry.

*sigh* OK, once more on Moose, via yesterday's BP:

http://premium.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2766

"Objectively speaking, Mussina is among the most consistently great and durable pitchers of his generation. Mussina has posted above-average park-adjusted ERAs in every season of his career, save 1993, and has been 25% better than average in 10 different seasons. In terms of career value, Mussina has been worth in the neighborhood of 100 more wins than a replacement level pitcher--more than Pedro Martinez (who's been in the league one fewer season than Mussina), and just nine fewer than to Tom Glavine, both of whom are contemporary shoe-ins for enshrinement.

The problem with Mussina's case is two-fold: 1) he lacks the peak value of someone like Pedro or Randy Johnson, and 2) he's yet to go through his decline phase, which will topple his career rate stats just a bit. Aside from that, the man has done about as much as anyone could do to build a HOF case for himself at the age of 35. He even has a postseason ERA of 3.05 in exactly 100 innings of work; not too bad for a pitcher some people still refer to as a 'choker.'

"From a traditional perspective, Mussina's case is equally strong. With 200 wins and a career winning percentage of .644, Moose is comparable (if on the low end) to fellow-Yankee Whitey Ford, Jim Bunning, and Catfish Hunter. All three of these pitchers are currently in the Hall of Fame, though if statheads ran the world, there's a pretty decent chance that two of them would have their membership revoked."

Bunning like fellow Phillie HOF'er Robin Roberts was a good pitcher on a terrible team, so I think he is held at a different angle. Bunning got in through the vets committee and didn't get into the hall until the mid 90s.

It all comes down to how Mussina performs in the next couple of years. If he remains consistent and wins a ring in NY, I don't doubt that he will be up for HOF membership. He has a cool nickname, so that counts for something.

Catfish Hunter
Vida Blue
Blue Moon Odom
Rollie Fingers

There is no wonder why they were great.

Not to be confused with Garfield Fizzlerump or Calico Quince.

>Playoff records-

Mussina: 15 starts (5-5)
Pettite: 30 starts (13-8)<

OK, I'll only say this once and without the usual tutorial ... W-L records in so few games tells you almost nothing about how they pitched.

well, Delgado def had at least two (i say this without checking any other stats from 2000 & 2003 and could be totally wrong).

I know some really like the Wins Abover Replacement stat, but Chipper Jones actually holds up pretty well on the career stat at Baseball Reference.

The guy is #56 all time and has a slew of Hall of Famers below him.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_career.shtml

By comparison, Carlos Delgado is like #337 on the same list.

I think Chipper Jones most likely retiring a lifetime Brave and having that MVP will probably help carry him on. I don't think it will be automatic, but I think it will eventually happen, especially if it doesn't happen voting and goes to the vet committee.

Chipper is a cinch, with the usual caveat.

Chipper no doubt.

chipper should be 1st ballot and might be

"well, Delgado def had at least two (i say this without checking any other stats from 2000 & 2003 and could be totally wrong)."

Giambi had a monster year in 2000, as did Thomas. By 2003 he'd definitely passed those guys though and only Pujols really had the case for being the better 1B at that point. Unfortunately Delgado was never quite that valuable again and he was also a butcher in the field so...

active pitchers version. left pettitte, hoffman, and wagner in there why because they look interesting. culled from a list of both active leaders in wins and active leaders in saves.

Jamie Moyer
Andy Pettitte
Roy Halladay
Tim Hudson
CC Sabathia
Roy Oswalt
Mark Buehrle
Johan Santana
Carlos Zambrano
Cliff Lee
Trevor Hoffman
Mariano Rivera
Billy Wagner
Francisco Rodriguez
Joe Nathan
Jonathan Papelbon

I know it's early, but I'd throw Justin Verlander on there too--three Top 10s in Cy Young voting (and one near-miss) by age 27 is a pretty good start. Anyway, after Rivera, I think Hoffman's 97%, and Halladay must be close to 90% by now (i.e., if he coasts, he's in). Sabathia and Santana are in pretty good shape, I would think. I can't see Cliff Lee ever making the Hall. With relief pitchers, I think we'll have a better sense of what's required in about 10 years, when you start getting a deluge of 300 & 400-save guys.

You missed Lincecum; best chance after Rivera, Hoffman, and Halladay, I'd say (if his arm holds up).

Rivera's a no doubt guy. Hoffman's probably going to make it too. We've talked about Wagner elsewhere, but I think probably not.

Halladay's pretty close. He might need a couple of more of his typically good years to cement it, but I think he'll get in eventually either way.

If Sabbathia keeps up what approximately he's been doing for the next 5-10 years I think he's pretty much a shoe-in. He'll be close to 275 wins and have 3000+ SOs.

Santana's going to have to reverse his decline and put up some great years again, I think. It's hard to tell what the thresholds will be for the next set of starting pitchers (will a starting pitcher with sub-200 wins make it?) Santana was definitely hands down the best pitcher in baseball for three years though so he should have a leg up on everyone not named Halladay.

Oswalt is like Santana (except he was never the hands down the best and he's not really declining much). He needs at least another 4 or 5 good/great years as well.

None of the rest of those guys should come close.

Lincecum is the next best next bet, I agree, with Verlander right behind him.

lincecum has already accomplished so much, yeah. his durability is a maybe a red flag but then again it was like that for pedro too but he lasted for awhile before burning out. verlander does seem to have everything in place to be the righty version of sabathia imo.

looking at Sabathia, i don't think he has another quality 10 years in him.

Sabathia being as young as he was is really his biggest advantage over most of these dudes. Getting 40 someodd wins and 500 SOs is a big leg up in the counting stat department.

Uh Thermy:

2/9/2011: Sabathia lost 30 pounds this offseason, ESPNNewYork.com reports.

Hah j/k obviously he might not. But he's not shown much sign of breakdown so far despite being his current not svelt self for quite a number of years.

Ha ha!

He's only had an era under 3.00 one season in his career - counting stats are going to be his way into the hall. he's lucky he's on the yanks in that regard!

Yeah Sabathia is definitely going to be one of those dudes whose bonafides are heavily influenced by his longevity/career totals. But once you adjust for league/ballpark his ERA+ is pretty good. And he won a totally deserved Cy Young and has been deservedly top 5 three other times. He's not Don Sutton (to this point anyway.)

he's got an outside shot at reaching 200 wins by the end of 2012, and i think barring a complete breakdown he gets to 300.

i think sabathia's a long shot for 300. if i had to put money on one current pitcher getting there i'd probably pick halladay despite the age difference

Sabathia: 157 wins, 2100 innings, about to turn 31. Halladay: 169, 2300 innings, about to turn 34. Halladay's obviously the better pitcher, so it should be close. Neither guy strikes me as someone who's going to experience a sudden decline, and, at least for now, they're both set up on excellent teams. One thing's for sure: at some point, people will start to speculate that they'll be the last two guys to win 300 games ever, something that just never turns out to be true.

i think if we're looking at potential 300 win candidates (and it's probably a fool's gambit trying to bet on who will get there until they clear 250 and remain in full health) felix hernandez is able to average 15 wins per season through his age 30 season, he'll be at 161 for his career.

Forgot all about Felix. 71 wins at the age of 25; Seaver had 57, Clemens 60, Maddux 75. He's also already got a Cy Young share on Baseball Reference of 1.42, which is 31st all-time. He's in great shape.

ya - if we're going to include Lincecum - we have to throw Felix in too.

The once caveat with regards to Lincecum and Hernandez is obvious. Roll call, please: Dwight Gooden, Steve Avery, Alex Fernandez, Kerry Wood, Juan Guzman, Barry Zito, etc. These weren't Stephen Strasburg guys who (possibly) blew their arms out before they even got started; rather, a group of pitchers who got a real fast jump and then, for one reason or another (mostly arm trouble, but not always) just stalled. I have nothing to base this on, but my guess is that one of Lincecum or Hernandez doesn't pan out through his 30s.

That's pretty much the caveat regarding everyone though. Pitchers can fall apart real fast.

Again, just a hunch, but don't pitchers play out this scenario more often? You get the occasional Carlos Baerga or Chuck Knoblauch--early brilliance, then mysterious decline--but in my own mind, I remember far more cases involving pitchers (the arm's fragility being the obvious reason). Great young hitters seem to follow through on their early promise more consistently.

Sorry I meant that's pretty much the caveat regarding all pitchers.

Position players can fall apart fast too though, but it's usually once they get to their mid-30s for obvious aging reasons.

Yeah--I can think of a slew of mid-30s positional guys breaking down: Murphy, Alomar, Rice, Mo Vaughn, Mattingly, etc. (Ignoring anybody PED-related...or maybe they're the guys who don't break down.)

McGwire def. fell apart.

30 position players, kinda chosen based on at the bare minimum having maybe accomplished enough that even if they dropped off the cliff this upcoming season they would merit strong consideration in some quarters.

Bobby Abreu
Carlos Beltran
Adrian Beltre
Lance Berkman
Miguel Cabrera
Johnny Damon
Carlos Delgado
Adam Dunn
Jim Edmonds
Vladimir Guerrero
Todd Helton
Ryan Howard
Derek Jeter
Andruw Jones
Chipper Jones
Paul Konerko
Joe Mauer*
Magglio Ordonez
David Ortiz*
Jorge Posada
Albert Pujols
Manny Ramirez
Scott Rolen
Ichiro Suzuki
Mark Teixeira
Miguel Tejada
Jim Thome
Chase Utley
Omar Vizquel
Mike Young

― omar little, Thursday, February 3, 2011 3:57 PM (3 years ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

well some of these dudes are going nowhere near the HOF, for sure. some of them should but won't.

*depends on the rest of their career, i think.

are you talking about EVER? What if they actually do fix the Veterans Committee someday? I can particularly see Utley, Rolen and maybe Andruw getting in.

i'm being pessimistic on that point. i agree utley and rolen should get in though.