HOT STOVE LEAGUE 2K4/2K5

er "don't see much of an issue here" obv.

anyway i'm all for the yanks offering up a big money 3 year contract (4 guaranteed is def stretching it) so i'm not just playing 'petey's' agent here.

Pedro's contract was 7y/90M or so, which is 13M/yr on average -- exactly what he's being offered now. And he signed it as the market was peaking, when he was coming off a Cy Young season and was entering his peak age range.

Furthermore, top pitchers almost always make less than top position players. So maybe my Sheffield comparison wasn't the most appropriate ... instead, consider Maddux, who signed a five-year deal -- still in his prime, which unfortunately doesn't apply to Pedro anymore -- the year after Pedro for ~$11M per.

Let's hope the Mets have changed docs since the Mo Vaughn exam. (Oh yeah -- rumor is Mo wants to try a comeback. Really.)

NY Times has major buzzkill on Mets-Pedro today; I pray it's true. Source says Mets would have to "overwhelm" him to pry him from Sox (ie, 4 years guaranteed at around 14.5 per).

'gax, "20 wins easy" in the NL East? With whose bullpen? Not likely even with the Braves', who have no interest.

Morbs, this is a guy who pitched for Boston and you have the nerve to bring up bullpen issues. :-D

So I got the terms of the Benitez deal:

Base Salary (+ signing bonus)
2005 $2.5M (+$1.6M) = $4.1M
2006 $4.0M (+$2.6M) = $6.6M
2007 $7.6M (+$0.0M) = $7.6M
2008 $0.0M (+$1.6M) = $1.6M
2009 $0.0M (+$1.6M) = $1.6M

Kendall & Beane:
http://sfgate.com/c/pictures/2004/12/01/sp_athletics_065_db.jpg

Baseball Prospectus has really overcomplicated their Statistics page, but Pedro's bullpen support was positive last year.

benitez = ugueth urbina. benitez /= keith foulke.

mir, there are some obvious problems w/ using a contracts signed 8 years ago as your comparison point, one of them being that the market wasn't CLOSE to it's peak - it didn't peak until 4 years later, when mike mussina - definitely NOT coming off a cy young season - signed a 6 year 85 million dollar deal (w/ an option for a 7th at 17M = 7yr/102M).

there's also randy johnson, who signed that huge contract at 39 during the big regression year of aught2. (i wanted to say 2/40 but that can't be right since he's still under contract. was it 3yrs at 18M per??)

as for maddux's CURRENT contract, it's a pretty strong parallel but one, it's the exception and not the rule, two, "upside" - and this is just my perception, but with maddux there wasn't much chance he was going to return to his sub-3.00 era ways, while pedro's still a major strikeout pitcher, and i think there's still hope he's going to regain whatever it was he lost last year (that's up to ML teams to decide). there's also a world of difference between 33 and 37. but generally, i think if you're a big name and can put up a 3.50 era, you're going to make 11-14M per.

exactly! if anything the recent success of late 30s/early 40s pitchers has helped early 30s/mid 30s pitchers get better deals.

Agreed that Mussina's free agent year was the true peak of the market -- however, Mussina's 2000 was actually a very good year despite the poor W-L record (poor run support), and considering he'd been putting up great numbers consistenly for ten years, had rarely been injured, and was only 31, he was considered the prize pitching free agent on the market that year, easy.

Unit is a freak of nature and is certainly not a fair comparison for the expected performance of great pitchers in their late-30's. Again -- the guy was a workhorse and had hardly ever been injured when he signed with the DBacks.

Unlike the other pitchers we've been mentioning, Pedro is a) past his peak, and b) injured a hell of a lot.

i think if you're a big name and can put up a 3.50 era, you're going to make 11-14M per

I agree, but this is more the reality of the market than smart GM'ing. And again, I wouldn't have a problem with Pedro earning 13M, I'd have a problem giving him that money for three years or more.

but sometimes even smart GMs have to concede to the reality of the market. and (while it might not be true if he wants to stay in boston badly enough) if you don't offer pedro a third year, you're not going to sign him. that may be perfectly acceptable, or it may not. it depends on your situation and you aspirations.

sure pedro's past his peak, but then his peak was a level on par with anything in the history of baseball, so...

Rewind OTM... Mussina 2000 was 5th in AL in Adjusted ERA, 3rd in raw ERA & strikeouts.

Pedro lookin' like Glavine 2 winters ago. The issue is he's likely to be WAY past his prime halfway through a 4-year contract, and/or a 170-inning pitcher.

Randy Johnson: Trade Talk With Boston

RotoWire.com Staff - RotoWire.com
Wednesday, December 1, 2004
Update: The Red Sox and Diamondbacks have held numerous discussions involving Johnson in the last five days, the Providence Journal reports. Arizona is looking for a package that would include Bronson Arroyo, pitching prospect Jon Lester and at least one other top prospect.

Recommendation: A trade for Johnson, who may request an extension past 2005 in exchange for approving a trade to Boston, would likely preclude the Red Sox from re-signing Pedro Martinez, who has received a three-year offer from the Mets.

so doc and mir: what exactly do you think pedro deserves? just what the sox offered him? i doubt that was a take it or leave it offer, though with the way the sox operate it could've been. but i don't think one year is going to keep the red sox from signing pedro. and i don't think it's realistic to expect a 33 year old ace to get no more than 2 years guaranteed.

also earl, that's apparently old news: the rumor of note right now is that johnson to NYY is imminent, with arizona receiving, i shit thee not, javier vazquez, tom gordon, eric duncan (yanks #1 prospect), and 12M dollars.

Good lord that's seems crazy. I mean I know that Steinbrenner has a lot of money, but that just seems impossibly silly.

you're not kidding. fucking insane. oh, and there was something about giving johnson an extension too. i mean you could keep vazquez, gordon, and duncan and sign pavano AND clement for that money. or go after pedro, save yourself 20M or whatever, spite your rival and end up with a bona fide ace who also happens to be like a decade younger.

i hope this is bogus.

Is Duncan a legit prospect, or is he the beneficiary of Steinbrenner's minor-league trade-bait downsizing?

Other problems - what happens to the bullpen if their 2nd best guy goes west?

I hope the rumor's bogus, but I also hope it's not (for obvious, gleeful reasons) (tee hee).

I think Pedro deserves less than he'll take. I can't imagine a team --Red Sox, Mets, Angels -- that can't squeeze more wins out of that many dollars for the next 3-4 years from other players.

That Unit-NYY deal is insane, if true. It's so insane, I'm having serious trouble believing it.

Doc OTM re Pedro. A fair offer, IMO, is 2Y/25M guaranteed, with a third year extension to kick in automatically if he pitches more than 200 innings in 2006. I'm glad I'm not Theo Epstein -- how would YOU like to explain to Pedro "we think you're a risky signing because of your injuries so we have to offer you less". I'm pretty sure Pedro would balk at an offer like the one I proposed.

Is the lefty the Giants are supposedly after a reliever or a starter?

Supposedly a set-up guy but I'm trying to think of any available lefty relievers.

to be honest, i'm not sure i'd even want to see vazquez for RJ straight up, with no money changing hands. it's apparently a gammons rumor, btw.

PG is hepped up on Kay Hanley's stash, it seems.

(Stop thinking that, you pervs.)

Steve "pigpen" Kline - free agent lefty reliever. heard the Yanks were thinking about him.

we heard something slightly different...

'A baseball official told MLB.com that Arizona is asking for Javier Vazquez and cash considerations to put toward his three-year, $34.5 million contract, as well as prospects Eric Duncan and Chien-Ming Wang. In addition to the three players and the cash, Arizona wants the Yankees to deal for one of Oakland's "Big Three" of Barry Zito, Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder, and include that pitcher in the trade as well.'

all i can say is:

haha!

WHOA

Where was this ball-busting when the Red Sox came acallin' for Schilling?

well, so much for that.

the deal's dead. check this shit out:
Arizona asked for Vazquez, $18.5 million, four or five prospects, and a pitcher from a list of 10: Oakland's Tim Hudson and Barry Zito, Florida's A.J. Burnett, Detroit's Jeremy Bonderman, Toronto's Ted Lilly, Los Angeles' Edwin Jackson, Tampa Bay's Scott Kazmir, Colorado's Shawn Chacon and Jason Jennings, and Texas' Kenny Rogers.

like ... wha???

http://www.nj.com/sportsflash/baseball/index.ssf?/base/sports-8/1101953654167491.xml&storylist=baseball

whoa. i thought w/ colangelo gone that shit was over with. i guess garagiola was more than a pawn?

don't be surprised if he's traded to boston for bronson arroyo and a prospect.

(remember that az asked for nick johnson (who's value was ultra-high at the time) AND soriano for schilling last year before trading him to the sox for casey fossum and that one AAAA pitcher. er. 2 AAAA pitchers. i have a whole thread devoted to that fucking trade somewhere)

(we know)

it's never gonna stop, man

RANDY JOHNSON TO BOSTON FOR SHEA HILLENBRAND!!!!

What ever happened to BHK?

yanc3y freaked me the fuck out for like .6 seconds there.

RUMOR HAS IT the yankees offered JON LIEBER a 3 year 21M contract and are close to netting ERIC MILTON. cuz (mediorcre) PITCHING WINS!!!

Reviving ILB ...

According to Andrew, the last 17 days of posts have been unfortunately lost ...

I think it may've also erased the RJ deal!

lupica has his revenge.

this reminds me over the weekend on sportsradio i heard some jackass going on in the wake of the mulder trade (btw wow) about how 'moneyball doesn't work' and how 'when theo epstein finally tossed all that bill james nonsense aside the red sox finally won' and how 'oakland isn't committed to winning' and, wait for it, 'they need to be like the mets and show their fans they're willing to spend what it takes to win'

????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

blount please remind me
why you listen to morons
and (more) why you care

It's the same reason why we read John Kruk's columns -- we love a good train wreck every now and then.

god bless ilx's shitty servers!!!

scores and headlines every twenty minutes dude!

Cubs please trade Sammy
All I want for Christmas now
Is the stud Beltran

Ditto, jeez.

Doc, I think your worse fears will come to be realized. Sportscenter had some video from Sammy's wedding vow renewal down south and Omar V. was shown in a tux at the ceremony. Appearantly the current Met GM was the guy who first scouted and signed him.

Shawn Green didn't want to leave LA, so him holding up that trade probably got his wish not to leave. Appearantly the sports talk radio and local writers were frying DiPodesta over this potential trade and losing Beltre, so the Dodgers got cold feet.

Considering how poorly Mulder pitched down the stretch, maybe there is something they know and are getting rid of him while he has high value. Danny Haren looked like he had pretty good stuff in the playoffs, whether or not that will translate into being a good starter, I don't know.

The A's could be like the Reds, who give away all of their spare talent for people that do nothing. The Reds big moves this off season are getting Ramon Ortiz, signing Shawn Estes and Kent Mercker. They need pitching, but oh well...someone has to pitch.

Gammons (and Beane)on the whys of the Mulder trade:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/gammons/story?id=1949178

Mulder and Hudson are due a combined $3.8 million more in '05; between that and TH's impending free agency, end of story, nearly.

The Minaya-Sosa relationship is well documented, but the Mets' strategy summarized in today's Times is Beltran + budget 1b (Olerud or, sigh, Minky) OR Delgado + Alou.

Jay Payton takes Kapler's spot as Fenway's Body Beautiful.

How quickly we forget David Ortiz!

yay! the orioles finally did something good. steve kline is hardly the impact signing i'd have hoped for by now, but he's a good pick up.

foxxxxxxxy mulder, i think i lub you. I wonder if X-stein will be a Redbird soon? Or will the Cardnials just put two orange cones up at 2b & SS, and if the ball hits them it's an out?