Rank 20 active players on potential HOF induction

"a few were, sure. i dunno about plenty tho."

Guys who overlapped with part or all of Delgado's best years and were better:

Pujols
Bagwell
Thome
Thomas
McGwire
Helton
Giambi

I favour peak over career, so a first baseman (primarily a hitting position) should have been one of the top 10 players in baseball for at least 5-7 years (not necessarily consecutive) to be a HOFer.

That's valid. I prefer that there be two equally legitimate routes: peak and career (with the automatics being strong in both). I'd say Palmeiro's an easy pick based on career, and at least a borderline in terms of peak.

I like Delgado btw, but 1) he actually was really bad post-06 and didn't really get going until 98 and 2) even during his very best years there was at least a couple of those other first basemen who were better.

Just one other thing about Palmeiro. His walk totals are pretty good. Not freakishly good like Bonds, and neither was he a consistent 100-walk guy, but he did draw 100+ three times, 90-100 two times, and 80-90 two times; 1353 total, 31st all-time. A lot of that has to do with his longevity, but obviously there are numerous guys who played 20 seasons who aren't anywhere near the career leaders in walks.

Of course I'm not saying he was Mays or Aaron. But, elephant-in-the-room aside, I think there's gotta be a place in the Hall of Fame for him.

re:

1) i totally disagree here - he certainly had health problems, but i would not use the word "bad" to describe his 2 1/2 seasons after 06. maybe bad by the standard he had set in the 8 years previous. '07 was nothing to crow about, but '08 was a solid season and in '09 he was mostly injured but when he did play his output was solid.

2) i have to agree here tho. with the exception of maybe 2000 & 2003 a few of those guys on the list usually out performed him in one season or another. but your average HOF'er is going to be in a similar situation too.

xpost

if you adjust for the era in which delgado played, he definitely comes up short. if the dude put up those numbers in the '60s-'80s, he'd be first-ballot. sometimes i look at players in the modern era and i'm amazed not just at the cumulative career numbers they put up but how fast they arrived at those numbers.

and how fast they crash to earth!

yeah and i mean guys like derrek lee can quietly assemble careers that will maybe end w/around 400 HR and 1400 RBI and folks just shrug at it and he'll be off the HOF ballot in one year.

"but your average HOF'er is going to be in a similar situation too."

If your average HoFer is Palmeiro or Sutton, that's true, but I would think most HoFers have at least a couple of years where they are the best player at their position (in their league at the very least).

well, Delgado def had at least two (i say this without checking any other stats from 2000 & 2003 and could be totally wrong).

I know some really like the Wins Abover Replacement stat, but Chipper Jones actually holds up pretty well on the career stat at Baseball Reference.

The guy is #56 all time and has a slew of Hall of Famers below him.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_career.shtml

By comparison, Carlos Delgado is like #337 on the same list.

I think Chipper Jones most likely retiring a lifetime Brave and having that MVP will probably help carry him on. I don't think it will be automatic, but I think it will eventually happen, especially if it doesn't happen voting and goes to the vet committee.

Chipper is a cinch, with the usual caveat.

Chipper no doubt.

chipper should be 1st ballot and might be

"well, Delgado def had at least two (i say this without checking any other stats from 2000 & 2003 and could be totally wrong)."

Giambi had a monster year in 2000, as did Thomas. By 2003 he'd definitely passed those guys though and only Pujols really had the case for being the better 1B at that point. Unfortunately Delgado was never quite that valuable again and he was also a butcher in the field so...

active pitchers version. left pettitte, hoffman, and wagner in there why because they look interesting. culled from a list of both active leaders in wins and active leaders in saves.

Jamie Moyer
Andy Pettitte
Roy Halladay
Tim Hudson
CC Sabathia
Roy Oswalt
Mark Buehrle
Johan Santana
Carlos Zambrano
Cliff Lee
Trevor Hoffman
Mariano Rivera
Billy Wagner
Francisco Rodriguez
Joe Nathan
Jonathan Papelbon

I know it's early, but I'd throw Justin Verlander on there too--three Top 10s in Cy Young voting (and one near-miss) by age 27 is a pretty good start. Anyway, after Rivera, I think Hoffman's 97%, and Halladay must be close to 90% by now (i.e., if he coasts, he's in). Sabathia and Santana are in pretty good shape, I would think. I can't see Cliff Lee ever making the Hall. With relief pitchers, I think we'll have a better sense of what's required in about 10 years, when you start getting a deluge of 300 & 400-save guys.

You missed Lincecum; best chance after Rivera, Hoffman, and Halladay, I'd say (if his arm holds up).

Rivera's a no doubt guy. Hoffman's probably going to make it too. We've talked about Wagner elsewhere, but I think probably not.

Halladay's pretty close. He might need a couple of more of his typically good years to cement it, but I think he'll get in eventually either way.

If Sabbathia keeps up what approximately he's been doing for the next 5-10 years I think he's pretty much a shoe-in. He'll be close to 275 wins and have 3000+ SOs.

Santana's going to have to reverse his decline and put up some great years again, I think. It's hard to tell what the thresholds will be for the next set of starting pitchers (will a starting pitcher with sub-200 wins make it?) Santana was definitely hands down the best pitcher in baseball for three years though so he should have a leg up on everyone not named Halladay.

Oswalt is like Santana (except he was never the hands down the best and he's not really declining much). He needs at least another 4 or 5 good/great years as well.

None of the rest of those guys should come close.

Lincecum is the next best next bet, I agree, with Verlander right behind him.

lincecum has already accomplished so much, yeah. his durability is a maybe a red flag but then again it was like that for pedro too but he lasted for awhile before burning out. verlander does seem to have everything in place to be the righty version of sabathia imo.

looking at Sabathia, i don't think he has another quality 10 years in him.

Sabathia being as young as he was is really his biggest advantage over most of these dudes. Getting 40 someodd wins and 500 SOs is a big leg up in the counting stat department.

Uh Thermy:

2/9/2011: Sabathia lost 30 pounds this offseason, ESPNNewYork.com reports.

Hah j/k obviously he might not. But he's not shown much sign of breakdown so far despite being his current not svelt self for quite a number of years.

Ha ha!

He's only had an era under 3.00 one season in his career - counting stats are going to be his way into the hall. he's lucky he's on the yanks in that regard!

Yeah Sabathia is definitely going to be one of those dudes whose bonafides are heavily influenced by his longevity/career totals. But once you adjust for league/ballpark his ERA+ is pretty good. And he won a totally deserved Cy Young and has been deservedly top 5 three other times. He's not Don Sutton (to this point anyway.)

he's got an outside shot at reaching 200 wins by the end of 2012, and i think barring a complete breakdown he gets to 300.

i think sabathia's a long shot for 300. if i had to put money on one current pitcher getting there i'd probably pick halladay despite the age difference

Sabathia: 157 wins, 2100 innings, about to turn 31. Halladay: 169, 2300 innings, about to turn 34. Halladay's obviously the better pitcher, so it should be close. Neither guy strikes me as someone who's going to experience a sudden decline, and, at least for now, they're both set up on excellent teams. One thing's for sure: at some point, people will start to speculate that they'll be the last two guys to win 300 games ever, something that just never turns out to be true.

i think if we're looking at potential 300 win candidates (and it's probably a fool's gambit trying to bet on who will get there until they clear 250 and remain in full health) felix hernandez is able to average 15 wins per season through his age 30 season, he'll be at 161 for his career.

Forgot all about Felix. 71 wins at the age of 25; Seaver had 57, Clemens 60, Maddux 75. He's also already got a Cy Young share on Baseball Reference of 1.42, which is 31st all-time. He's in great shape.

ya - if we're going to include Lincecum - we have to throw Felix in too.

The once caveat with regards to Lincecum and Hernandez is obvious. Roll call, please: Dwight Gooden, Steve Avery, Alex Fernandez, Kerry Wood, Juan Guzman, Barry Zito, etc. These weren't Stephen Strasburg guys who (possibly) blew their arms out before they even got started; rather, a group of pitchers who got a real fast jump and then, for one reason or another (mostly arm trouble, but not always) just stalled. I have nothing to base this on, but my guess is that one of Lincecum or Hernandez doesn't pan out through his 30s.

That's pretty much the caveat regarding everyone though. Pitchers can fall apart real fast.

Again, just a hunch, but don't pitchers play out this scenario more often? You get the occasional Carlos Baerga or Chuck Knoblauch--early brilliance, then mysterious decline--but in my own mind, I remember far more cases involving pitchers (the arm's fragility being the obvious reason). Great young hitters seem to follow through on their early promise more consistently.

Sorry I meant that's pretty much the caveat regarding all pitchers.

Position players can fall apart fast too though, but it's usually once they get to their mid-30s for obvious aging reasons.

Yeah--I can think of a slew of mid-30s positional guys breaking down: Murphy, Alomar, Rice, Mo Vaughn, Mattingly, etc. (Ignoring anybody PED-related...or maybe they're the guys who don't break down.)

McGwire def. fell apart.

30 position players, kinda chosen based on at the bare minimum having maybe accomplished enough that even if they dropped off the cliff this upcoming season they would merit strong consideration in some quarters.

Bobby Abreu
Carlos Beltran
Adrian Beltre
Lance Berkman
Miguel Cabrera
Johnny Damon
Carlos Delgado
Adam Dunn
Jim Edmonds
Vladimir Guerrero
Todd Helton
Ryan Howard
Derek Jeter
Andruw Jones
Chipper Jones
Paul Konerko
Joe Mauer*
Magglio Ordonez
David Ortiz*
Jorge Posada
Albert Pujols
Manny Ramirez
Scott Rolen
Ichiro Suzuki
Mark Teixeira
Miguel Tejada
Jim Thome
Chase Utley
Omar Vizquel
Mike Young

― omar little, Thursday, February 3, 2011 3:57 PM (3 years ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

well some of these dudes are going nowhere near the HOF, for sure. some of them should but won't.

*depends on the rest of their career, i think.

are you talking about EVER? What if they actually do fix the Veterans Committee someday? I can particularly see Utley, Rolen and maybe Andruw getting in.

i'm being pessimistic on that point. i agree utley and rolen should get in though.