re:
1) i totally disagree here - he certainly had health problems, but i would not use the word "bad" to describe his 2 1/2 seasons after 06. maybe bad by the standard he had set in the 8 years previous. '07 was nothing to crow about, but '08 was a solid season and in '09 he was mostly injured but when he did play his output was solid.
2) i have to agree here tho. with the exception of maybe 2000 & 2003 a few of those guys on the list usually out performed him in one season or another. but your average HOF'er is going to be in a similar situation too.
xpost
― got electrolytes (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 7 February 2011 21:05 (thirteen years ago) link
if you adjust for the era in which delgado played, he definitely comes up short. if the dude put up those numbers in the '60s-'80s, he'd be first-ballot. sometimes i look at players in the modern era and i'm amazed not just at the cumulative career numbers they put up but how fast they arrived at those numbers.
― omar little, Monday, 7 February 2011 21:53 (thirteen years ago) link
and how fast they crash to earth!
― got electrolytes (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 7 February 2011 21:55 (thirteen years ago) link
yeah and i mean guys like derrek lee can quietly assemble careers that will maybe end w/around 400 HR and 1400 RBI and folks just shrug at it and he'll be off the HOF ballot in one year.
― omar little, Monday, 7 February 2011 21:58 (thirteen years ago) link
"but your average HOF'er is going to be in a similar situation too."
If your average HoFer is Palmeiro or Sutton, that's true, but I would think most HoFers have at least a couple of years where they are the best player at their position (in their league at the very least).
― Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Monday, 7 February 2011 22:11 (thirteen years ago) link
well, Delgado def had at least two (i say this without checking any other stats from 2000 & 2003 and could be totally wrong).
― got electrolytes (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 7 February 2011 22:17 (thirteen years ago) link
I know some really like the Wins Abover Replacement stat, but Chipper Jones actually holds up pretty well on the career stat at Baseball Reference.
The guy is #56 all time and has a slew of Hall of Famers below him.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_career.shtml
By comparison, Carlos Delgado is like #337 on the same list.
I think Chipper Jones most likely retiring a lifetime Brave and having that MVP will probably help carry him on. I don't think it will be automatic, but I think it will eventually happen, especially if it doesn't happen voting and goes to the vet committee.
― earlnash, Monday, 7 February 2011 22:40 (thirteen years ago) link
Chipper is a cinch, with the usual caveat.
― clemenza, Monday, 7 February 2011 22:52 (thirteen years ago) link
Chipper no doubt.
― got electrolytes (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 7 February 2011 22:57 (thirteen years ago) link
chipper should be 1st ballot and might be
― ciderpress, Monday, 7 February 2011 23:05 (thirteen years ago) link
"well, Delgado def had at least two (i say this without checking any other stats from 2000 & 2003 and could be totally wrong)."
Giambi had a monster year in 2000, as did Thomas. By 2003 he'd definitely passed those guys though and only Pujols really had the case for being the better 1B at that point. Unfortunately Delgado was never quite that valuable again and he was also a butcher in the field so...
― Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Tuesday, 8 February 2011 03:48 (thirteen years ago) link
active pitchers version. left pettitte, hoffman, and wagner in there why because they look interesting. culled from a list of both active leaders in wins and active leaders in saves.
Jamie MoyerAndy PettitteRoy HalladayTim HudsonCC SabathiaRoy OswaltMark BuehrleJohan SantanaCarlos ZambranoCliff LeeTrevor HoffmanMariano RiveraBilly WagnerFrancisco RodriguezJoe Nathan Jonathan Papelbon
― omar little, Thursday, 10 February 2011 00:10 (thirteen years ago) link
I know it's early, but I'd throw Justin Verlander on there too--three Top 10s in Cy Young voting (and one near-miss) by age 27 is a pretty good start. Anyway, after Rivera, I think Hoffman's 97%, and Halladay must be close to 90% by now (i.e., if he coasts, he's in). Sabathia and Santana are in pretty good shape, I would think. I can't see Cliff Lee ever making the Hall. With relief pitchers, I think we'll have a better sense of what's required in about 10 years, when you start getting a deluge of 300 & 400-save guys.
― clemenza, Thursday, 10 February 2011 00:24 (thirteen years ago) link
You missed Lincecum; best chance after Rivera, Hoffman, and Halladay, I'd say (if his arm holds up).
― clemenza, Thursday, 10 February 2011 00:26 (thirteen years ago) link
Rivera's a no doubt guy. Hoffman's probably going to make it too. We've talked about Wagner elsewhere, but I think probably not.
Halladay's pretty close. He might need a couple of more of his typically good years to cement it, but I think he'll get in eventually either way.
If Sabbathia keeps up what approximately he's been doing for the next 5-10 years I think he's pretty much a shoe-in. He'll be close to 275 wins and have 3000+ SOs.
Santana's going to have to reverse his decline and put up some great years again, I think. It's hard to tell what the thresholds will be for the next set of starting pitchers (will a starting pitcher with sub-200 wins make it?) Santana was definitely hands down the best pitcher in baseball for three years though so he should have a leg up on everyone not named Halladay.
Oswalt is like Santana (except he was never the hands down the best and he's not really declining much). He needs at least another 4 or 5 good/great years as well.
None of the rest of those guys should come close.
Lincecum is the next best next bet, I agree, with Verlander right behind him.
― Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Thursday, 10 February 2011 03:41 (thirteen years ago) link
lincecum has already accomplished so much, yeah. his durability is a maybe a red flag but then again it was like that for pedro too but he lasted for awhile before burning out. verlander does seem to have everything in place to be the righty version of sabathia imo.
― omar little, Thursday, 10 February 2011 03:50 (thirteen years ago) link
looking at Sabathia, i don't think he has another quality 10 years in him.
― got electrolytes (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Thursday, 10 February 2011 03:57 (thirteen years ago) link
Sabathia being as young as he was is really his biggest advantage over most of these dudes. Getting 40 someodd wins and 500 SOs is a big leg up in the counting stat department.
― Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Thursday, 10 February 2011 03:58 (thirteen years ago) link
Uh Thermy:
2/9/2011: Sabathia lost 30 pounds this offseason, ESPNNewYork.com reports.
― Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Thursday, 10 February 2011 03:59 (thirteen years ago) link
Hah j/k obviously he might not. But he's not shown much sign of breakdown so far despite being his current not svelt self for quite a number of years.
― Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Thursday, 10 February 2011 04:00 (thirteen years ago) link
Ha ha!
He's only had an era under 3.00 one season in his career - counting stats are going to be his way into the hall. he's lucky he's on the yanks in that regard!
― got electrolytes (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Thursday, 10 February 2011 04:08 (thirteen years ago) link
Yeah Sabathia is definitely going to be one of those dudes whose bonafides are heavily influenced by his longevity/career totals. But once you adjust for league/ballpark his ERA+ is pretty good. And he won a totally deserved Cy Young and has been deservedly top 5 three other times. He's not Don Sutton (to this point anyway.)
― Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Thursday, 10 February 2011 04:16 (thirteen years ago) link
he's got an outside shot at reaching 200 wins by the end of 2012, and i think barring a complete breakdown he gets to 300.
― omar little, Thursday, 10 February 2011 05:01 (thirteen years ago) link
i think sabathia's a long shot for 300. if i had to put money on one current pitcher getting there i'd probably pick halladay despite the age difference
― ciderpress, Thursday, 10 February 2011 06:44 (thirteen years ago) link
Sabathia: 157 wins, 2100 innings, about to turn 31. Halladay: 169, 2300 innings, about to turn 34. Halladay's obviously the better pitcher, so it should be close. Neither guy strikes me as someone who's going to experience a sudden decline, and, at least for now, they're both set up on excellent teams. One thing's for sure: at some point, people will start to speculate that they'll be the last two guys to win 300 games ever, something that just never turns out to be true.
― clemenza, Thursday, 10 February 2011 12:42 (thirteen years ago) link
i think if we're looking at potential 300 win candidates (and it's probably a fool's gambit trying to bet on who will get there until they clear 250 and remain in full health) felix hernandez is able to average 15 wins per season through his age 30 season, he'll be at 161 for his career.
― omar little, Thursday, 10 February 2011 17:35 (thirteen years ago) link
Forgot all about Felix. 71 wins at the age of 25; Seaver had 57, Clemens 60, Maddux 75. He's also already got a Cy Young share on Baseball Reference of 1.42, which is 31st all-time. He's in great shape.
― clemenza, Thursday, 10 February 2011 20:33 (thirteen years ago) link
ya - if we're going to include Lincecum - we have to throw Felix in too.
― got electrolytes (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Friday, 11 February 2011 00:06 (thirteen years ago) link
The once caveat with regards to Lincecum and Hernandez is obvious. Roll call, please: Dwight Gooden, Steve Avery, Alex Fernandez, Kerry Wood, Juan Guzman, Barry Zito, etc. These weren't Stephen Strasburg guys who (possibly) blew their arms out before they even got started; rather, a group of pitchers who got a real fast jump and then, for one reason or another (mostly arm trouble, but not always) just stalled. I have nothing to base this on, but my guess is that one of Lincecum or Hernandez doesn't pan out through his 30s.
― clemenza, Friday, 11 February 2011 15:26 (thirteen years ago) link
That's pretty much the caveat regarding everyone though. Pitchers can fall apart real fast.
― Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Friday, 11 February 2011 16:43 (thirteen years ago) link
Again, just a hunch, but don't pitchers play out this scenario more often? You get the occasional Carlos Baerga or Chuck Knoblauch--early brilliance, then mysterious decline--but in my own mind, I remember far more cases involving pitchers (the arm's fragility being the obvious reason). Great young hitters seem to follow through on their early promise more consistently.
― clemenza, Friday, 11 February 2011 17:12 (thirteen years ago) link
Sorry I meant that's pretty much the caveat regarding all pitchers.
― Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Friday, 11 February 2011 17:19 (thirteen years ago) link
Position players can fall apart fast too though, but it's usually once they get to their mid-30s for obvious aging reasons.
― Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Friday, 11 February 2011 17:20 (thirteen years ago) link
Yeah--I can think of a slew of mid-30s positional guys breaking down: Murphy, Alomar, Rice, Mo Vaughn, Mattingly, etc. (Ignoring anybody PED-related...or maybe they're the guys who don't break down.)
― clemenza, Friday, 11 February 2011 18:40 (thirteen years ago) link
McGwire def. fell apart.
― Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Friday, 11 February 2011 18:46 (thirteen years ago) link
30 position players, kinda chosen based on at the bare minimum having maybe accomplished enough that even if they dropped off the cliff this upcoming season they would merit strong consideration in some quarters.
Bobby AbreuCarlos BeltranAdrian BeltreLance BerkmanMiguel CabreraJohnny DamonCarlos DelgadoAdam DunnJim EdmondsVladimir GuerreroTodd HeltonRyan HowardDerek JeterAndruw JonesChipper JonesPaul KonerkoJoe Mauer*Magglio OrdonezDavid Ortiz*Jorge PosadaAlbert PujolsManny RamirezScott RolenIchiro SuzukiMark TeixeiraMiguel TejadaJim ThomeChase UtleyOmar VizquelMike Young
― omar little, Thursday, February 3, 2011 3:57 PM (3 years ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
well some of these dudes are going nowhere near the HOF, for sure. some of them should but won't.
*depends on the rest of their career, i think.
― LIKE If you are against racism (omar little), Thursday, 24 July 2014 17:28 (nine years ago) link
are you talking about EVER? What if they actually do fix the Veterans Committee someday? I can particularly see Utley, Rolen and maybe Andruw getting in.
― son of a lewd monk (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 24 July 2014 17:34 (nine years ago) link
i'm being pessimistic on that point. i agree utley and rolen should get in though.
― LIKE If you are against racism (omar little), Thursday, 24 July 2014 17:38 (nine years ago) link