Checking it out, Juan Gonzalez is still only 34. Hard to believe, but true, considering how long he has been in the majors. I still doubt that he will be able to keep everything together, but he has 429 jacks allready. If he gets his act together, I suppose it wouldn't be much to get to 500. Jose Canseco definitely put up hall of fame numbers up to the age of 34, but after that didn't do squat except become a punchline. I might have to move Juangone up to wait and see.
Chipper Jones is also half way to a hall of fame career. He is 31 and has over 1588 hits, 280 Hrs, 943 rbis in nine full seasons. If he can stay healthy and consistent, which he has been since coming into the majors, he has a good shot at a hall of fame career. Going from numbers at the baseball-reference site, his stats are slightly better than Bonds at the same age. I tend to doubt Chipper is going to hit 73HRs at age 36, but he could still put up close to 3000 hits and 500 hrs.
Manny Ramierez career hitting stats are similar to Chipper and are the same age. Manny is probably too muy loco to be able to keep it up till he is 40. He is to likely to have some freak accident with a dentist, bar fight or a satillite dish and end his career.
Nomar and Jeter are both also about half way to a hall of fame career. If both they stay healthy, productive and winning; I see no reason that they won't be considered. They much further off than anyone else I have mentioned.
― earlnash, Sunday, 4 April 2004 02:43 (twenty years ago) link
― John (jdahlem), Sunday, 4 April 2004 02:58 (twenty years ago) link
― John (jdahlem), Sunday, 4 April 2004 03:02 (twenty years ago) link
― John (jdahlem), Sunday, 4 April 2004 03:11 (twenty years ago) link
And that matters for stat inflation, too. Palmeiro's numbers (or whomever's) might not be enough, when he doesn't have a superstar/winner image. The Hall is going to have to get more selective, or start inducting way more people.
― miloauckerman (miloauckerman), Sunday, 4 April 2004 07:27 (twenty years ago) link
― j.q. higgins, Sunday, 4 April 2004 16:52 (twenty years ago) link
If Bill James concepts (sabremetrics, win shares, etc.) really pay off for the Red Sox, I think they could become key, though.
― miloauckerman (miloauckerman), Monday, 5 April 2004 00:10 (twenty years ago) link
― John (jdahlem), Monday, 5 April 2004 00:48 (twenty years ago) link
Bill James in his books talks a bunch about peak performance versus career performance, which makes sense. Jim Rice at his peak performance was as good and devestating a hitter that played the game, but his career was pretty much done around age 33, where guys like Aaron, Mays and others continued to play at a very high level to around age forty.
Pitchers are not quite held to those rule book numbers, as many great ones just don't end up playing long enough to put them up. Gibson, Palmer, Koufax and a bunch of other hall of fame starters never won 300 games, mostly as injuries and wear and tear ended their career a few years early.
The percentage numbers are probably more telling, but you they can't beat the freakitude of Rose having 4256 hits, Ryan's 5714 strikeouts, or Cy Young's 511 wins. Think about it: you would have to play 21 years and average 200 hits a year to even get a shot at Rose or 19 seasons of 300 ks to get to Ryan or 25 wins a year for 20 years to get to Cy Young. Other than the outlandish single season performance of in slugging or ERA, it just doesn't seem quite as mind boggling.
― earlnash, Monday, 5 April 2004 02:43 (twenty years ago) link
― miloauckerman (miloauckerman), Tuesday, 6 April 2004 03:01 (twenty years ago) link
I really hope this linkie thing works - <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/rosepe01.shtml">PETE ROSE</a>
He hit .325 at 40?
― David R. (popshots75`), Tuesday, 6 April 2004 16:20 (twenty years ago) link
http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/rosepe01.shtml
― David R. (popshots75`), Tuesday, 6 April 2004 16:21 (twenty years ago) link
1990 the Reds pitching fell into place (they picked the last part of the nasty boys troika) and they won it all with Lou at the helm.
― earlnash, Tuesday, 6 April 2004 16:31 (twenty years ago) link
*sigh* Wins wins wins -- you guys know that pitchers don't actually WIN games, right? I even heard Joe Morgan say last night that pitchers lose games on bad breaks all the time... Moose would have several 20-win seasons with decent run support.
Mussina has pitched about as well in the postseason as Andy Pettitte has, but just hasn't been scored for as much. Three more typical seasons and he's in the HOF.
McGriff is not a Hall of Famer. Palmeiro has a stronger case, but we're getting to the point where 500 HR won't be a lock anymore.
Larkin has suffered from the Shortstop Boom.
Jeter needs a second-half-of-career renaissance, even if the "Moneyball is heresy" crowd never notice he's terrible defensively.
Deserving HOFer who will be criminally neglected in the balloting: Tim Raines.
― Dr Morbius, Monday, 12 April 2004 17:44 (twenty years ago) link
― gygax! (gygax!), Monday, 12 April 2004 17:48 (twenty years ago) link
as long as character is a quality for induction, mr. "i slide head first so i don't break the coke vial in my sock" raines shouldn't hold his breath. fair or not those are the rules and until they're changed... well, then he'll be overlooked for his on-field accomplishments.
― otto midnight (otto midnight), Monday, 12 April 2004 17:51 (twenty years ago) link
How can one "not imagine" Bagwell as a HOFer, when he and Big Hurt not only have nearly identical offensive stats, but Bags doesn't disgrace himself with the glove?
― Dr Morbius, Monday, 12 April 2004 18:06 (twenty years ago) link
i don't think jeter needs a renaissance, especially since he hasn't even started declining offensively yet. he's been the undisputed leader of the latest yankees dynasty, and has put up fantastic offensive numbers. people really need to stop comparing him to his peak/fluke '99 season. he's been compltely consistent aside from that. i think the one thing he needs to do to cement his induction is move, preferably to centerfield, and soon.
and though again i warn i'm shit at HoF evals, moose seems more like a "really really good pitcher not quite good enough for the hall" then a lock to me. definitely a few ballots down the road, anyway. i'd say he's a notch above david cone, whatever that means.
― John (jdahlem), Monday, 12 April 2004 18:22 (twenty years ago) link
i don't, i really really don't. give me a guy who likes to imbibe a little too much or likes a smoke now and then over a bible thumping religious freak anyday. put them in the hall based on what went on between the lines, leave the judgment of character to the civic organizations.
― otto midnight (otto midnight), Monday, 12 April 2004 18:49 (twenty years ago) link
― John (jdahlem), Monday, 12 April 2004 18:59 (twenty years ago) link
Mussina: 15 starts (5-5)Pettite: 30 starts (13-8)
Tim Raines at his peak was as good as Henderson as a lead off hitter, except he had a better arm and a bit more power. The guy played the game at full speed, but maybe the problems off the field also is why he was injury prone as he got older.
― earlnash, Monday, 12 April 2004 18:59 (twenty years ago) link
i wouldn't mind going back some time, i'm sure there's a ton of stuff that i missed when i was 15. and i'd bring golf clubs this time, there seemed to be nothing but golf courses around there from what i remember.
― otto midnight (otto midnight), Monday, 12 April 2004 19:03 (twenty years ago) link
― John (jdahlem), Monday, 12 April 2004 19:06 (twenty years ago) link
― John (jdahlem), Monday, 12 April 2004 19:07 (twenty years ago) link
Here is a link to his stats:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/raineti01.shtml
As for his character, Rock was very highly regarded by Torre and was kept around for another year by the Marlins as a mentor player. As with many players in the 80s, he probably liked to party, but I definitely wouldn't put him in the same boat with Steve Howe or Strawberry.
― earlnash, Monday, 12 April 2004 19:27 (twenty years ago) link
― jaymc (jaymc), Tuesday, 13 April 2004 00:15 (twenty years ago) link
― Gear! (Gear!), Tuesday, 13 April 2004 06:50 (twenty years ago) link
*sigh* OK, once more on Moose, via yesterday's BP:
http://premium.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2766
"Objectively speaking, Mussina is among the most consistently great and durable pitchers of his generation. Mussina has posted above-average park-adjusted ERAs in every season of his career, save 1993, and has been 25% better than average in 10 different seasons. In terms of career value, Mussina has been worth in the neighborhood of 100 more wins than a replacement level pitcher--more than Pedro Martinez (who's been in the league one fewer season than Mussina), and just nine fewer than to Tom Glavine, both of whom are contemporary shoe-ins for enshrinement.
The problem with Mussina's case is two-fold: 1) he lacks the peak value of someone like Pedro or Randy Johnson, and 2) he's yet to go through his decline phase, which will topple his career rate stats just a bit. Aside from that, the man has done about as much as anyone could do to build a HOF case for himself at the age of 35. He even has a postseason ERA of 3.05 in exactly 100 innings of work; not too bad for a pitcher some people still refer to as a 'choker.'
"From a traditional perspective, Mussina's case is equally strong. With 200 wins and a career winning percentage of .644, Moose is comparable (if on the low end) to fellow-Yankee Whitey Ford, Jim Bunning, and Catfish Hunter. All three of these pitchers are currently in the Hall of Fame, though if statheads ran the world, there's a pretty decent chance that two of them would have their membership revoked."
― Dr Morbius, Tuesday, 13 April 2004 13:49 (twenty years ago) link
Bunning like fellow Phillie HOF'er Robin Roberts was a good pitcher on a terrible team, so I think he is held at a different angle. Bunning got in through the vets committee and didn't get into the hall until the mid 90s.
It all comes down to how Mussina performs in the next couple of years. If he remains consistent and wins a ring in NY, I don't doubt that he will be up for HOF membership. He has a cool nickname, so that counts for something.
― earlnash, Tuesday, 13 April 2004 15:45 (twenty years ago) link
― Gear! (Gear!), Tuesday, 13 April 2004 16:13 (twenty years ago) link
― John (jdahlem), Tuesday, 13 April 2004 16:28 (twenty years ago) link
― gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 13 April 2004 16:33 (twenty years ago) link
― j.q. higgins, Tuesday, 13 April 2004 16:33 (twenty years ago) link
Catfish HunterVida BlueBlue Moon OdomRollie Fingers
There is no wonder why they were great.
― earlnash, Tuesday, 13 April 2004 17:15 (twenty years ago) link
Not to be confused with Garfield Fizzlerump or Calico Quince.
― David R. (popshots75`), Tuesday, 13 April 2004 17:44 (twenty years ago) link
>Playoff records-
Mussina: 15 starts (5-5)Pettite: 30 starts (13-8)<
OK, I'll only say this once and without the usual tutorial ... W-L records in so few games tells you almost nothing about how they pitched.
― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 13 April 2004 18:12 (twenty years ago) link
― earlnash, Tuesday, 13 April 2004 19:01 (twenty years ago) link
― Gear! (Gear!), Tuesday, 13 April 2004 19:33 (twenty years ago) link
If it should just come down to statistics, then forget the voting process and simply establish numerical standards for people to gain entry.
(insert essay on the importance of mythology to baseball, etc. etc. etc.)
― miloauckerman (miloauckerman), Tuesday, 13 April 2004 20:03 (twenty years ago) link
― John (jdahlem), Tuesday, 13 April 2004 20:30 (twenty years ago) link
Re "he won a Cy Young," so what? We judge a HOF candidate based on whether he has a misjudged award from the same group? Bob Welch has a Cy Young too; in 1990 he was about the 4th-to-6th-best pitcher in the league but in which he "won" 27 cuz the A's scored a shitload for him.
As for Catfish, he had 3 really splendid years: '72, 74, 75, and was a pretty damn average pitcher the rest of the time. Check the ERA+ columns (Dahlem Person's head explodes):
http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/hunteca01.shtml
Of course, Hunter also tended to throw 260-320 innings a year -- the way butch old-timers just LOVE -- which forced him to retire at 33.
The right stats, INTERPRETED CORRECTLY (objectively), are the main means to measuring careers. But stick with "I saw him play one year, on TV, a few times" if it makes ya happy.
― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 13 April 2004 21:33 (twenty years ago) link
― otto midnight (otto midnight), Tuesday, 13 April 2004 21:39 (twenty years ago) link
Morbs' stance is fairly common in modern baseball thought: Evaluating a pitching career solely or largely on Wins is a judgement on the whole team's performance... the caveat is that it can mask a player's true worth.
Who would you rather have on your team: Russ Ortiz or Brandon Webb?
― gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 13 April 2004 21:48 (twenty years ago) link
Great, I will. Thanks for permission, dude!
What are the "right stats," what does it mean for them to be "INTERPRETED CORRECTLY"? How is any of it "objective"? What are the exact cut-offs? A lifetime ERA that's 1 ER under the league average is "hall of fame" but only .5ER would just be "OK"? Why? Who decides?
The entire argument, really, is bullshit. There are no 'right' and 'wrong' stats, there's no possible way to "objectively" measure them or decide what amounts to a "hall of fame" career vs. "pretty-good" career.
And on top of that, how you reach those statistics (you know, 'playing') is the least objective thing in the world. Bad call by the umpire, a slow infield that costs a guy a hit, winds that blow in and out and all over the place, parks of all different sizes and shapes, etc. etc. etc.. Pure fucking luck in many cases
Should we kick guys out of the hall of fame, since we know they wouldn't be as good today? How many of the old-timers would even be able to get on the field, much less hit .400 or .420?
If numbers are all that matter, fuck baseball - go simulate some stats.
"Know what the difference between hitting .250 and .300 is? It's 25 hits. 25 hits in 500 at bats is 50 points, okay? There's 6 months in a season, that's about 25 weeks. That means if you get just one extra flare a week - just one - a gorp... you get a groundball, you get a groundball with eyes... you get a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week... and you're in Yankee Stadium."
― miloauckerman (miloauckerman), Tuesday, 13 April 2004 21:59 (twenty years ago) link
milo is right, numbers are not all that matter. sabermetrics are incredibly useful for evaluating talent, but they should NOT be the SOLE factor in deciding who gets MVP or who gets in to the hall. here's an extreme example to make my point clear: a hypothetical jackie robinson. if he was a career .250 hitter, i'd still want him in the HoF. would you disagree with that?
― John (jdahlem), Tuesday, 13 April 2004 23:07 (twenty years ago) link
no probably not, but I think that's overrated. One could argue and one would probably be right that in the late '90s the best third baseman in the league was Vinny Castilla (I know, Coors factor, but still).
Speaking of Coors, anyone think Helton's gonna make the HOF? I don't think he was mentioned in this thread, but to date his career BA is over .330 and career slugging is over .600...
back to Raffy! I'd say he's a lock, he passed "close" about two seasons ago. His cumulative stats at this point are astonishing. Even stathead Rob Neyer, who a year ago was iffy on Raffy, admitted after last season that he deserves to go in. My prediction: 590 HR, 1870 RBI, 3064 hits, .289 BA, and a very consistent mustache will be more than enough.
― Gear! (Gear!), Wednesday, 14 April 2004 05:30 (twenty years ago) link
helton is a splendind hitter and a good glove. his 3 year road splits are .297/.401/.535, if anyone's interested. i'll let others deal with the HoF arguments, but my feeling on palmeiro is that if he gets in it shouldn't be for many years down the line, cepeda style.
this is as good a time as any to bring this up - has anyone else heard of the supposed "coors effect" (no not the obvious one)? i saw this being argued quite tenaciously (by a rockies fan) on a message boards awhile back. basically the poster suggested that taking batting practice every other week at coors impairs the rockies players ability to hit on the road, so the coors boost is all but cancelled out in the end. i thought of three players off the top of my head to test this with - neifi perez, preston wilson, and jeff cirillo - and it came up negative each time, unless the effects are chronic and preston wilson happened to have a talent boost coincide with his arrival in denver, which really doesn't seem likely. it might seem strange that i'm bringing this up or even considering it seriously, but the guy who brought it _seemed_ intelligent, to have researched the topic, and had some people buying it, as i recall - and it does make some sense, although he might've been taking it too far. so if anyone wants to give their thoughts or think of any other players who've logged signficant time w/ colorado and elsewhere, i'd appreciate it. (obviously castilla is another one, and we should get a pretty good idea of the coors effect by tracking him this year, as he's back with colorado)
― John (jdahlem), Wednesday, 14 April 2004 05:53 (twenty years ago) link
I'd never argue that ONE stat could be the Holy Grail to defining a player. Nobody's been that smart yet. But consider :
> There are no 'right' and 'wrong' stats, there's no possible way to "objectively" measure them or decide what amounts to a "hall of fame" career vs. "pretty-good" career.<
There are better and worse stats. It's just real "Flat Earth" to maintain otherwise, and you contradict it when you cite traditional stats on behalf of a player.
I hears Dan O'Dowd, the Rockies GM, wearily discuss that "other" Coors Effect at the Denver SABR convention last summer. The guy is plain out of ideas.
Castilla was never the best offensive 3B once the home field was factored out. Trust me.
>Catfish Hunter might not have the stats, but he is 'storied' - and that's the key. It's the Hall of Fame.<
Jeez Milo, that silly and desperate argument? Let's induct Bo Jackson and Eddie Gaedel.
And Blue Moon freakin' ODOM, "great"? He was no Jon Matlack...
― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 14 April 2004 13:16 (twenty years ago) link
― Chris 'The Velvet Bingo' V (Chris V), Wednesday, 14 April 2004 13:23 (twenty years ago) link
looking at Sabathia, i don't think he has another quality 10 years in him.
― got electrolytes (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Thursday, 10 February 2011 03:57 (thirteen years ago) link
Sabathia being as young as he was is really his biggest advantage over most of these dudes. Getting 40 someodd wins and 500 SOs is a big leg up in the counting stat department.
― Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Thursday, 10 February 2011 03:58 (thirteen years ago) link
Uh Thermy:
2/9/2011: Sabathia lost 30 pounds this offseason, ESPNNewYork.com reports.
― Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Thursday, 10 February 2011 03:59 (thirteen years ago) link
Hah j/k obviously he might not. But he's not shown much sign of breakdown so far despite being his current not svelt self for quite a number of years.
― Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Thursday, 10 February 2011 04:00 (thirteen years ago) link
Ha ha!
He's only had an era under 3.00 one season in his career - counting stats are going to be his way into the hall. he's lucky he's on the yanks in that regard!
― got electrolytes (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Thursday, 10 February 2011 04:08 (thirteen years ago) link
Yeah Sabathia is definitely going to be one of those dudes whose bonafides are heavily influenced by his longevity/career totals. But once you adjust for league/ballpark his ERA+ is pretty good. And he won a totally deserved Cy Young and has been deservedly top 5 three other times. He's not Don Sutton (to this point anyway.)
― Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Thursday, 10 February 2011 04:16 (thirteen years ago) link
he's got an outside shot at reaching 200 wins by the end of 2012, and i think barring a complete breakdown he gets to 300.
― omar little, Thursday, 10 February 2011 05:01 (thirteen years ago) link
i think sabathia's a long shot for 300. if i had to put money on one current pitcher getting there i'd probably pick halladay despite the age difference
― ciderpress, Thursday, 10 February 2011 06:44 (thirteen years ago) link
Sabathia: 157 wins, 2100 innings, about to turn 31. Halladay: 169, 2300 innings, about to turn 34. Halladay's obviously the better pitcher, so it should be close. Neither guy strikes me as someone who's going to experience a sudden decline, and, at least for now, they're both set up on excellent teams. One thing's for sure: at some point, people will start to speculate that they'll be the last two guys to win 300 games ever, something that just never turns out to be true.
― clemenza, Thursday, 10 February 2011 12:42 (thirteen years ago) link
i think if we're looking at potential 300 win candidates (and it's probably a fool's gambit trying to bet on who will get there until they clear 250 and remain in full health) felix hernandez is able to average 15 wins per season through his age 30 season, he'll be at 161 for his career.
― omar little, Thursday, 10 February 2011 17:35 (thirteen years ago) link
Forgot all about Felix. 71 wins at the age of 25; Seaver had 57, Clemens 60, Maddux 75. He's also already got a Cy Young share on Baseball Reference of 1.42, which is 31st all-time. He's in great shape.
― clemenza, Thursday, 10 February 2011 20:33 (thirteen years ago) link
ya - if we're going to include Lincecum - we have to throw Felix in too.
― got electrolytes (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Friday, 11 February 2011 00:06 (thirteen years ago) link
The once caveat with regards to Lincecum and Hernandez is obvious. Roll call, please: Dwight Gooden, Steve Avery, Alex Fernandez, Kerry Wood, Juan Guzman, Barry Zito, etc. These weren't Stephen Strasburg guys who (possibly) blew their arms out before they even got started; rather, a group of pitchers who got a real fast jump and then, for one reason or another (mostly arm trouble, but not always) just stalled. I have nothing to base this on, but my guess is that one of Lincecum or Hernandez doesn't pan out through his 30s.
― clemenza, Friday, 11 February 2011 15:26 (thirteen years ago) link
That's pretty much the caveat regarding everyone though. Pitchers can fall apart real fast.
― Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Friday, 11 February 2011 16:43 (thirteen years ago) link
Again, just a hunch, but don't pitchers play out this scenario more often? You get the occasional Carlos Baerga or Chuck Knoblauch--early brilliance, then mysterious decline--but in my own mind, I remember far more cases involving pitchers (the arm's fragility being the obvious reason). Great young hitters seem to follow through on their early promise more consistently.
― clemenza, Friday, 11 February 2011 17:12 (thirteen years ago) link
Sorry I meant that's pretty much the caveat regarding all pitchers.
― Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Friday, 11 February 2011 17:19 (thirteen years ago) link
Position players can fall apart fast too though, but it's usually once they get to their mid-30s for obvious aging reasons.
― Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Friday, 11 February 2011 17:20 (thirteen years ago) link
Yeah--I can think of a slew of mid-30s positional guys breaking down: Murphy, Alomar, Rice, Mo Vaughn, Mattingly, etc. (Ignoring anybody PED-related...or maybe they're the guys who don't break down.)
― clemenza, Friday, 11 February 2011 18:40 (thirteen years ago) link
McGwire def. fell apart.
― Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Friday, 11 February 2011 18:46 (thirteen years ago) link
30 position players, kinda chosen based on at the bare minimum having maybe accomplished enough that even if they dropped off the cliff this upcoming season they would merit strong consideration in some quarters.
Bobby AbreuCarlos BeltranAdrian BeltreLance BerkmanMiguel CabreraJohnny DamonCarlos DelgadoAdam DunnJim EdmondsVladimir GuerreroTodd HeltonRyan HowardDerek JeterAndruw JonesChipper JonesPaul KonerkoJoe Mauer*Magglio OrdonezDavid Ortiz*Jorge PosadaAlbert PujolsManny RamirezScott RolenIchiro SuzukiMark TeixeiraMiguel TejadaJim ThomeChase UtleyOmar VizquelMike Young
― omar little, Thursday, February 3, 2011 3:57 PM (3 years ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
well some of these dudes are going nowhere near the HOF, for sure. some of them should but won't.
*depends on the rest of their career, i think.
― LIKE If you are against racism (omar little), Thursday, 24 July 2014 17:28 (nine years ago) link
are you talking about EVER? What if they actually do fix the Veterans Committee someday? I can particularly see Utley, Rolen and maybe Andruw getting in.
― son of a lewd monk (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 24 July 2014 17:34 (nine years ago) link
i'm being pessimistic on that point. i agree utley and rolen should get in though.
― LIKE If you are against racism (omar little), Thursday, 24 July 2014 17:38 (nine years ago) link