General MLB 2011 thread for random game talk, juiced-baseball conspiracies, etc

so they should go sub 162 games? what about those precious counting stats Scott Boras needs for next year?

the lost game would be statistical noise @ this point

Marlins-Nats should skip all six of the games they have left with each other, obv.

teams have 'gone sub 162' quite regularly, add some of the seasonal W-L records.

eg, I count five in the 2002 NL

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2002.shtml

mariners at cleveland on a rainy monday afternoon

it's 7-4 in the third inning and there are maybe 20 ppl in attendance

That's too sad even for Brook Benton.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yRKqfrct070

From KLaw chat, pondering Verlander's dominance (fWAR is Fangraphs' WAR, rWAR is B-R's):

David (Bethlehem, PA)
Why does rWAR give Verlander a huge lead over Sabathia (8.4 - 6.8), but fWAR they are tied at 7.0?

Klaw (1:51 PM)
rWAR doesn't normalize BABIP. fWAR does. That is, if Sabathia has been hurt by a bad defense behind him (or just rotten luck on balls in play), rWAR doesn't attempt to credit any of that back to him, while fWAR does.

mike (detroit)
I've never been a fan of normalizing BABIP. it seems to imply Detroit is a good defensive team for Verlander which when you look at the players individually doesnt hold.

Klaw (2:01 PM)
OK, so think about it this way. We know pitchers don't have a lot of control over BABIP. They may have some, but outside a certain range it's probably not sustainable. Verlander's career BABIP coming into this year was around .290-.300 and his single-season low was .279. This year he's at .235, and it's not like his stuff is magically better. What's your bet - that he's suddenly defying everything we think we know about pitchers and balls in play, or that, say, more than half of that 60-point drop in BABIP is due to factors beyond his control?

Baseball Reference has Matt Kemp's WAR up to 9.6. This edges him into the 100 greatest seasons ever; it he can push it to 10, he moves into the top 80.

I don't quite get why his year ranks so high. His numbers are very good: 36 HR, 40 steals, .326/.403/.582. I know he gets a bump for playing in Dodger Stadium, and I know offensive levels have returned to normal. I don't know anything about his defense; his defensive WAR is in the black. What hidden numbers make it such an historic season?

Not sure if WAR is league adjusted? A near 1.000 OPS is a great season in the post-roids era (esp if you play the majority of your games in pitchers' parks).

"post-roids"

Man, this could be one wacky finish.

can we talk about the new era commercial w/ alec baldwin and that guy?

R.A. Dickey is 6th in the NL in pitcher WAR... ahead of Lincecum.

"RIP"

trading the manager, featuring the chuck tanner-for-manny sanguillen deal

someone give me ozzie's fwar and rwar over a replacement manager

MLB_PR MLB Public Relations
Potential AL Wild Card tiebreaker on Thurs would start at 4:07pm ET on #TBS. NL Wild Card tiebreaker would follow at 8:07pm ET.

MLB_PR MLB Public Relations
ALDS Game 1 (BOS/TB @ TEX or DET) Friday 5:07pm ET. Other ALDS Game 1 (DET or TEX @ NYY) 8:37pm ET. @MLB_TBS @TurnerSportsPR

MLB_PR MLB Public Relations
For those asking, both NLDS series will begin on Saturday. Times still TBD at this point. @MLB_TBS @TurnerSportsPR

And what TV for the tiebreakers?

Both NL games tonight are listed on ESPN2 (with BOS-BAL on the main), how the fuck is that possible? They're just gonna bounce us back and forth I presume.

MLB_PR MLB Public Relations
Potential AL Wild Card tiebreaker on Thurs would start at 4:07pm ET on #TBS. NL Wild Card tiebreaker would follow at 8:07pm ET.

so TBS has all the regular season tiebreakerts as well as the LDS? I'm hoping that means we get 'alternate feed' at least on mlb.tv.

did anyone see the D-Backs' ridiculous comeback last night. ffffffffffffffuuuuuuuuuuu

Current Vegas odds for the WC team games:

PHI +180
ATL -190

STL -200
HOU +187

BOS -230
BAL +190

NYY +224
TAM -240

Hey clemenza, all that boring arguing over the batting triple crown (of which Kemp may only lead one cat by the end of today) but zero mentions of the TWO pitching triple crowns by Verlander and Kershaw?

pitching triple crown also a nonstarter

haha well I figured clemenza would be all over that. is the pitching triple crown happen less rare?

Prior to this season, there have been 11 pitcher Triple Crowns since the advent of the Cy Young Award:

Sandy Koufax three times
Roger Clemens twice
Steve Carlton
Dwight Gooden
Pedro Martinez
Randy Johnson
Johan Santana
Jake Peavy

And 11 times, the Triple Crown was accompanied by a Cy Young Award. (neyer)

I expect it will be again, notwithstanding the narrowness of Kershaw's leads and that Dodger Stadium still ranks as a pretty good pitcher's park.

(but I think this is the one Keith Law is voting for)

I think overall, there have been more pitching TCs than those by hitters. For some reason, it never became a big deal like the hitting TC. Not saying that's right or wrong, just the way it is. Verlander and Kershaw obviously had spectacular years; until his last bad start, I think Verlander had a shot at an MLB triple.

Anyway, wins = RBI, the discredited category. K = home runs, I guess, the glamour category. ERA = BA, except ERA is the more meaningful metric. Of course, I'm very anxious for the WAR/win-probability added/BABIP triple crown to catch on for pitchers; that's when things will really start to liven up.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-qLsHkXytUu8/Tf27HuqsxjI/AAAAAAAAIFU/S1zVPyafuEY/s320/jkjkh.jpg

I don't think that in the wild-card era we've ever entered the last day of the season where none of the LDS matchups were set in either league.

this is crazy, looks like we're likely to have two game 163s
that Boston one is gonna be so epic should it actually happen

batting race machinations:

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/16808/jose-reyes-leaves-game-to-protect-title

brian kenny is on mlb network now?!? i love him, tbh. im like personally sorry for him he presumably cant cover boxing now also

Pujols will be sitting tonight to protect .300, right? (Yes, yes, I'm kidding.) I'm sure Morbius remembers the wild '76 finish, with Brett at .333, McRae at .332, Carew at .331, and accusations of racism from McRae (over a ball that fell in for a hit from Brett...forget the left fielder who was involved in the play).

brian kenny is on mlb network now?!? i love him, tbh. im like personally sorry for him he presumably cant cover boxing now also

― johnny crunch, Wednesday, September 28, 2011 6:32 PM (11 minutes ago)

I read a brief interview with him last week and he said he's making arrangements to cover boxing during the MLB offseason -- not sure for who, but --

ya i just read probably the same thing. espn is so monolithic & exclusionary i knew they wouldnt let him. hopefully hbo, thatd be great actually

morbs' link mentions the brett/mcrae/carew debacle as well as bill madlock's achy hammy, among others

in '76 I was more interested in seeing the Yanks get punished in October (it worked out)

Thanks, didn't click on the link. There's a link inside the link that takes you to a piece on the '76 race. I love this part:

Here's what amazes me most: this story is buried on page 31 of The Sporting News. Just one more story in the stream of basic pieces that appeared in page after page. No cover tease. No editorial on page two. Nothing.

Can you imagine if this happened today? We'd be viewing replays of the flyball round the clock, with every baseball writer in America essentially required to weigh in on the issue. There'd be a pro-McRae party, to be sure, along with a vociferous party against him. There'd also be those simply arguing that the play might instead just be changed to an error. There'd be a really cool post someone analyzing the physics of the play, and comparing the fielder's position on that play as compared to similar situations.

Pretty accurate summary of the distance between then and now, similar to how someone pointed out (in contrast to the 9/11 anniversary coverage) how the 10-year anniversary of Pearl Harbor got a short paragraph in the [i]Times<i/>.

Wish I could watch the Red Sox or Cardinals, but all I've got is the lopsided Tampa game plus updates.

braun 0-for-1

guess i should have paid for mlb.tv tonight huh

you can pay for just one night?!

in that it is the end of the regular season, yes

can't you see BOS & ATL on ESPN.com? I can.

I'm only using MLB for the Rays' audio

such a ridic night, it was crazy 2 watch all this

looking fwd 2 rays/rangs & az/mil a lot

i know no one gives a shit, but on monday i was like "ah yeah, i might as well go up and see my cousins for rosh hashana, I HAVE NOTHING TO DO ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT"

great night, amazing stuff. probably better night than any other the rest of the season.

i feel like i slept through 9/11

lol

ANDINO DID 9(/29)/11

#Kevin_Goldstein
It's like something amazing happens every 93 seconds.