2012 awards thread

fielding and defense is about more than errors you realize yes

I seem to ascribe more importance to performance under pressure than Keri.
But he knows better cuz he's got an article.

That is actually correct!

p sure both guys play well under pressure, not that it's easy to isolate that.

xpost

My fave player of all time was a defensive specialist. Great play in the field is the most exciting part of the game for me. Trout was a very exciting player this year. But so much of this seems to be a diminishing of Cabrera's accomplishments in order to show up the old guard. RBIs....pfff

"That sounds familiar...Look at that: a guy who's able to present both sides of an argument and allow that there may be validity to each side."

I don't see him presenting both sides. He seems to be politely saying "if you want to engage in this kind of behavior it's a free country" to me.

god cabrera's really gonna win it isn't he

I OTOH am working feverishly with the LDS to pass an Internet Proposition which will outlaw all references to "high leverage late season game performance".

god bless you straight to kolob

"But so much of this seems to be a diminishing of Cabrera's accomplishments in order to show up the old guard."

Oh I think there is a little of this on both sides, sir.

That said RBIs really are totally silly.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/trout-versus-cabrera-offense-only-context-included/

I attempted to explain to someone why Trout's SLG would be higher than Cabrera's if you were to add their NSBs to their 2Bs (while subtracting the NSBs from the 1Bs). The response was, "Bullshit."

Trout's SLG would be .642 instead of .564.

Cabrera's would be .608 instead of .606.

I don't see him presenting both sides. He seems to be politely saying "if you want to engage in this kind of behavior it's a free country" to me.

No. His counter-example is very specifically and exactly what I was proposing--he presents both sides. "Engage in this kind of behaviour"--yes, Alex, by disagreeing with you I'm engaging in some kind of (perhaps clinically treatable) behaviour. Jesus...

ok, what's an NSB?

To be fair, clemenza I don't think it's treatable.

comparing Play Time to The Graduate might be clinically treatable... naaah!

Thought I'd run this by James. As always, eminently sane.

Another big message-board argument--like most of the things we argue about, extremely basic. When weighing an MVP candidacy, do you place any weight on late-season performance (from Sept. 1 onward, say, presumably for a team in contention)? Is it worth a lot, a little, nothing, or does it vary from year to year and player to player?
Asked by: Phil Dellio

Answered: 10/4/2012
I would think you could place SOME weight on late-season play. Obviously we don't want to encourage a repeat of 1979, when Willie Stargell stole an MVP award with three big late-season hits.

We used to have passionate arguments about how to give weight to the innings pitched by relievers. Tango got us out of that rut by developing the Leverage Index, which rationally compares innings pitched by the situation. So the question is, has anyone developed a "Game Leverage Index", which compares the pennant impact of different games, and thus would create a pathway toward a reasoned resolution of this?

Basically what I've been saying.

You know, some of us try to think about this stuff. Ever since I read your post from a few years ago extolling the virtues of Jack Morris for the HOF--Alex #1--I get the feeling you're a guy who's absorbed some stuff from Law and Neyer and some others--Alex #2--and you're able to parrot it at will. Great.

If you wanna place SOME weight on late-season play, I still don't see how Miggy has enough to catch him up to Trout.

but as my unremarked-upon-link sez: Stop caring about MVP. Cabrera wd be a great choice compared to Marty Marion.

Haha yeah I try to never think about stuff though. Oh your a card.

And yes I've done a complete 180 on what I believed 8 (or whatever) years ago. I read quite a bit and the statistical arguments of the people I read (who were not Keith Law cuz his stuff is behind a paywall) made quite a bit of sense than the received wisdom and bias which I'd been operating off of before. It was a good argument and hey I changed my mind. You don't seem to have a good argument (except to say "but it's just WPA!") so I don't think you are likely to change anyone's mind. Bill James does seem to love responding to your emails though, I'll give you that.

wait trout has a much higher WPA than cabrera what's going on anymore

cabrera's clutch score is -1.37 and trout's is -0.53

i have no idea how that's calculated but i have to think it's better than, i dunno, memory of baseball tonight broadcasts

what is going on

NSB: net stolen base. Trout stole 49 bases and was caught five times, so he had 44 NSBs. Cabrera: four SBs, one CS, so three NSBs.

The person I was debating was trying to downplay stolen bases/speed as a factor in determining a player's value.

is clem's argument that these stats are fucked cause they're not including late season performance?

...where trout has a 1.9 WAR compared to cabrera's 1.3?

confused!

xp

should bryce harper get some #1 MVP votes cause he led the majors in WAR during the last 30 days of the season?

or does that not matter cause his team was already basically in

i'm changing my mvp vote to bryce harper

That's a clown vote.

bro

i think for nl mvp you gotta go with miguel cabrera, he won the triple crown and he did it at the end of the season

i don't think it gets more clutch than that

This is what I wrote yesterday: "Offensively, you can at least make a case for Cabrera, if you give weight to something like how they hit the last couple of months of the season. I give weight to something like that; many don't." In other words, even offensively, you have to give weight to these secondary and tertiary issues if you want to argue for Cabrera as producing more offense. Some people aren't willing to make that leap; as someone who hasn't completely abandoned the old-fashioned verities, I'm okay with giving them some--some--weight. And then I went on to say that, once you consider defense and speed, the case for Cabrera starts to evaporate.

If you wanna place SOME weight on late-season play, I still don't see how Miggy has enough to catch him up to Trout.

How you get from a to b, I don't know.

Stop caring about MVP.

I find this really funny. You're obsessed with it.

Too many opinions in this house. That's my opinion.

nope. Bullshit MVPs are at least half of them, I woulda died long ago if I was obsessed. Right now I just want the A's to beat the Tigers.

xp

How many home runs did Trout take away? Something like four or five? I doubt Cabrera would have been able to take one away. On some/all, he wouldn't have made it to the warning track.

Ya, you're right. Now let's imagine Cabrera as a pitcher!

That said RBIs really are totally silly.

Totally

I don't have a problem using late season performance as a tiebreaker. Players wear down at the end of a long season, anyone who's still healthy and/or good enough to bury the competition in September might deserve a bit of extra credit.

Answered: 10/4/2012
I would think you could place SOME weight on late-season play. Obviously we don't want to encourage a repeat of 1979, when Willie Stargell stole an MVP award with three big late-season hits.

Chipper Jones won the MVP in 1999 mostly because of one series against the Mets. He had a great year and might have deserved to win anyway, but it definitely wouldn't have been almost unanimous.

Ya, you're right. Now let's imagine Cabrera as a pitcher!

Trout has had a great year, but plays a less challenging position (with regards to errors/chances).

The HR robberies post was one way of saying that I believe CF is more difficult than 3B -- that Trout's value as an elite CF is far greater than Cabrera's value as a below-average 3B.

okay whose sockpuppet is peepee

I attempted to explain to someone why Trout's SLG would be higher than Cabrera's if you were to add their NSBs to their 2Bs (while subtracting the NSBs from the 1Bs). The response was, "Bullshit."

Trout's SLG would be .642 instead of .564.

Cabrera's would be .608 instead of .606.

― Andy K, Thursday, October 4, 2012 12:05 PM (3 hours ago)

Don't know if I'm being obvious but doubles involve runners often scoring from first base and a ball put into play and thus the possibility of fielding errors. I mean, I think you can just say, "Trout has 49 stolen bases."

I realize it's better to hit a double than a single. I wasn't saying that Trout's "true" SLG is .642; this person was looking at extra-base hits, saw a gulf wide enough to dismiss Trout as the superior hitter, and didn't understand why Trout's SBs were worth considering. (Trout's SBs AND his very high SB% are really remarkable.)

Errors occur while attempting to pick off and throw out runners, too.

Another random stat:

Cabrera hit into 28 double plays. Trout hit into seven. That's a big difference.

Sockpuppet? Just cuz I can't understand why Cabrera ain't getting the love for what I think was a great year....Not just that...he's at best a very distant second to Trout's great year on this thread. We're all being selective as to what we're looking at...RBIs, silly...SBs, noble!

Cabrera....Runs + RBIs - HRs = 204
Trout......Runs + RBIs - HRs = 182

Cabrera needed runners on base to knock in
Trout needed hitters to knock him in

Cabrera...runners in scoring position/2outs = .420/.491
Trout...................................... = .286/.435

Cabrera....much more HiDPs, much fewer SOs, same BBs
Cabrera...scored 7 more runs than Trout after batting with nobody on...3 less than Trout when leading off

Triple Crown vs Better speed and defense

Is it really that one sided towards Trout???

man thats a lot of counting stats

does it count for more when you get a hit with RISP w/ 2 outs as opposed to none?

only in the ninth inning of a game in September

if you value situational hitting, that RE24 stat actually seems like a pretty solid metric. i'd never heard of it before

i love baseball really needed a poster named peepee

we need to test his for Heyman residue

Constructing a case for Cliff Lee:

http://www.highheatstats.com/2012/10/is-cliff-lee-worth-some-cy-young-love/