As I mentioned above, I went back and tried to refresh my memory on the details. I searched high and low (i.e., I went to Wikipedia):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Ortiz#Alleged_positive_performance-enhancing-drug_test_in_2003
So it's murky. But the voters thus far haven't seemed to be big on nuance when it comes to PEDs.
― clemenza, Monday, 31 March 2014 22:57 (ten years ago) link
cliff lee inched that much closer to the hall with his 140th career win today: 5 IP, 8 R, 11 H, 1 BB, 1 K, 14.40 ERA, 13 game score
kinda makes up for his 2012 season
― mookieproof, Monday, 31 March 2014 23:56 (ten years ago) link
Thomas won two MVP awards (including one unanimously). That's a pretty big intangible. Thomas was also a monster ballplayer. Despite probably being as nearly big a minus (or nothing) defensively as Ortiz he's top ten in career WAR/JAWS (just outside it for seven year peak) for 1B (plus he hit 500 home runs). Ortiz is by contrast outside the top 30 for all three (and he won't likely get to 500 home runs). In 7-10 years time when Ortiz is coming up for election everyone minus a few card super Sox fans is going to bring these facts up IN ADDITION to the fact that the dude was a DH (which will be enough for some folks to dismiss him right off the back even without the steroid whispers). Unless I'm totally misjudging the electorate I don't see Ortiz getting a final ballot reprieve a la Rice or even really getting close that.
― One bad call from barely losing to (Alex in SF), Tuesday, 1 April 2014 01:42 (ten years ago) link
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/f/f0/AL_MVP_award.JPG
that's totally tangible you can pick it up
― linda cardellini (zachlyon), Tuesday, 1 April 2014 01:45 (ten years ago) link
Look at im hoisting this shit:
http://blog.sidelinesapp.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/David-Ortiz-MVP.jpg
― One bad call from barely losing to (Alex in SF), Tuesday, 1 April 2014 01:51 (ten years ago) link
linda cardellini otm
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 1 April 2014 02:04 (ten years ago) link
https://twitter.com/davidortiz/status/451032513679749120/photo/1
― jaymc, Tuesday, 1 April 2014 17:47 (ten years ago) link
Nothing to do with Ortiz, just follow-up to Alex's post. I'm just not sure if anyone who only saw Thomas during the second half of his career appreciates how he was viewed for his first eight years (up to and including '97): almost exactly as Pujols was viewed, which is as arguably the greatest pure hitter since Williams/Foxx/Ruth. At the end of '97, his slash line was .330/.452/.600--and while home runs were definitely flying out, the records hadn't yet started to fall.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 1 April 2014 17:55 (ten years ago) link
Some handicapping from David Schoenfield, based on the ASG rosters:
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/49826/how-many-all-stars-will-be-hall-of-famers
My own guesses (without checking to see what I posted upthread--I change my mind a lot):
Sure thing: Jeter, CabreraClose to a sure thing: Cano, Beltre, Felix, KershawThree good-to-great seasons will do it: Tulowitzki, McCutchen, UtleyBest too-early bets: Puig, Kimbrel, StantonCategory unto himself: Trout (I want to put him into the close-to-a-sure-thing category already...)
Not as big on Molina's chances as Schoenfield, and I think Darvish and Tanaka will just run out of time in the end.
― clemenza, Friday, 18 July 2014 00:10 (ten years ago) link
(Even if they were to keep pitching well, I mean--any discussion of Tanaka's chances is obviously ludicrous at this point.)
― clemenza, Friday, 18 July 2014 00:15 (ten years ago) link
love mccutchen, obviously, but it will take more than that
and if cano's power continues to fade, he and utley are about level
― mookieproof, Friday, 18 July 2014 00:32 (ten years ago) link
don't think yadi will ever get in, even if he ended up with numbers that deserve it. the HOF isn't fair to catchers. and by the time hudson is eligible he'll get quickly shut out by all the current candidates still knocking on the door.
instead of ASG i like to go back to old WAR leaderboards and see how many in the top 30 are HOFers now. there's usually quite a bit. seems to be more of a draught these days but there are always gonna be a few surprises/late bloomers who take a step forward and stay there. i mean if what jose altuve is showing this year is for real then why the hell not? he's only 24!
pitching is probably going to have more of those wild cards tho
― linda cardellini (zachlyon), Friday, 18 July 2014 00:35 (ten years ago) link
cutch has maybe more star power than anyone else in the game rn after jeter, he doesn't even have to be that good from now on to be seen as a sort of 'classic' HOF guy. a CF who hits .300 20/20 every year is immediately on the fast track.
― linda cardellini (zachlyon), Friday, 18 July 2014 00:42 (ten years ago) link
top 30 fWAR hitters who i think have could end up having a shot: trout tulo cutch stanton goldschmidt(?) jones(?) puig kinsler(??) rendon cano abreu b.hamilton(????) mcab utley freeman beltre altuve
daily reminder that billy hamilton currently has more WAR than miguel cabrera
i'd do pitchers but they're harder, a lot of HOF pitching picks have a lot to do with how well and how long they perform after age 30. tim hudson and mark buerhle being in the discussion over johan santana says a lot.
― linda cardellini (zachlyon), Friday, 18 July 2014 00:50 (ten years ago) link
I thought about listing Altuve as a decent longshot bet, seeing as he'll have 600 hits before he turns 25 and took a step forward this year. Even if everything worked out perfectly and he ended up with 3,000 hits, though, that probably won't mean as much in the future without other things to supplement that--defense, walks, etc. I know a lot of people consider Brock one of the more questionable choices in there, and even he had the SB besides the hits. (Hard to know whether he got in more for the 3,000 of the SB.) But if he continues to improve like he has this year, sure.
Pitchers are a real guessing game, yes. I would have called Verlander close to a sure thing a year ago, with Sabathia not far behind.
― clemenza, Friday, 18 July 2014 00:53 (ten years ago) link
"3,000 or the SB"
― clemenza, Friday, 18 July 2014 00:54 (ten years ago) link
Actually, having just finished Summer of '68, Brock's three World Series figured into the equation too, where he retired with a few WS records.
― clemenza, Friday, 18 July 2014 00:57 (ten years ago) link
you know altuve has 116 SBs already right. big difference btwn him and brock is he's a 2B and brock was a LF. if brock put up those numbers as even a bad 2B he'd deserve his spot no doubt
altuve had pretty-looking numbers last year as a 23 year old and then he cut his Ks in half and turned into the best baserunner in the AL. i don't think he and brock are comparable. but this is of course assuming altuve's year isn't a flash in the pan
― linda cardellini (zachlyon), Friday, 18 July 2014 01:04 (ten years ago) link
also he's so tiny and cute
― mookieproof, Friday, 18 July 2014 01:05 (ten years ago) link
yes! knowing how the HOF is that's actually a good point
― linda cardellini (zachlyon), Friday, 18 July 2014 01:06 (ten years ago) link
He's definitely improved in the SB department this season--his percentages the last two years were just okay--and maybe that'll figure in too. Again, I'm not sure SB will ever be given the same weight they were when Brock was up for induction (they're not helping Raines a lot thus far, and he's got a very strong all-around case), and Brock retired with the two major SB records.
Anyway, I'd love to see Altuve keep moving forward.
― clemenza, Friday, 18 July 2014 01:30 (ten years ago) link
I think that after pitchers, middle infielders who pile up a lot of hits at a young age might be the next hardest group to predict. The Gary Templeton/Carlos Baerga/Jose Reyes group...Starlin Castro is only two months older than Altuve; he's going to finish the season with 850+ hits. That's a very fast start towards 3,000, but right now, that's pretty much the only thing he's got going for him, besides his position. Elvis Andrus will have around 950 at the age of 25, along with good defense. Who knows with these guys?
― clemenza, Friday, 18 July 2014 02:18 (ten years ago) link
I like Kershaw and Felix a lot but it's hard for me to see characterizing them as close to a sure thing when they're still in their 20s and most of the HOF pitchers pitched well into their 30s.
Beltre OTOH I think has a very very strong case now.
― One bad call from barely losing to (Alex in SF), Friday, 18 July 2014 13:33 (ten years ago) link
adrian beltre has 74 career WAR which surprised me a bit - he probably won't ever be seriously considered though because a lot of that is in defense and he didn't hit that well in his 20s other than that one fluke year
― ciderpress, Friday, 18 July 2014 13:40 (ten years ago) link
interesting that aramis Ramirez has #s p similar to Beltre and is he ever talked abt as a legit candidate? nb i didn't read the linked story above
― johnny crunch, Friday, 18 July 2014 13:46 (ten years ago) link
Beltre is pretty high in all-time counting stats for 3Bs, as well as the sabermetric ones.
That Utley isn't a lock at this point is an insult on top of the two MVPs he lost to lesser teammates.
― son of a lewd monk (Dr Morbius), Friday, 18 July 2014 13:52 (ten years ago) link
"adrian beltre has 74 career WAR which surprised me a bit - he probably won't ever be seriously considered though because a lot of that is in defense and he didn't hit that well in his 20s other than that one fluke year"
He didn't hit well in his 20s because he played for the most part in pitchers parks. His oWAR is still very impressive and he has decent counting stats and still a couple more years to add both.
― One bad call from barely losing to (Alex in SF), Friday, 18 July 2014 14:35 (ten years ago) link
"interesting that aramis Ramirez has #s p similar to Beltre and is he ever talked abt as a legit candidate?"
Because he's terrible defender that plays for the Cubs.
― One bad call from barely losing to (Alex in SF), Friday, 18 July 2014 14:37 (ten years ago) link
aramis has less than half of beltre's career WAR
defense is valuable
― ciderpress, Friday, 18 July 2014 14:39 (ten years ago) link
Beltre definitely gets in, I hope on his way to the podium for his HOF speech everyone tries to rub his head
― LIKE If you are against racism (omar little), Friday, 18 July 2014 14:42 (ten years ago) link
remember that dinosaur W-L/RBI writers won't be dominating the BBWAA in 20 years
― son of a lewd monk (Dr Morbius), Friday, 18 July 2014 14:43 (ten years ago) link
Even if they were beltre is gonna likely have 3009 hits at has a slim chance at 500 hr. Not that it should count, he should go in if he retired after this season.
― LIKE If you are against racism (omar little), Friday, 18 July 2014 14:45 (ten years ago) link
I'm calling it, 3009 hits
yea i didn't realize aramises war was so much worse, only glanced @ counting stats
― johnny crunch, Friday, 18 July 2014 15:20 (ten years ago) link
I hedged a bit on Beltre because everybody else does, but honestly, I think he'll go in easily--maybe not first ballot, but first two or three.
There are the reasons cited above--his high (and getting higher) WAR rank, the possibility of 500/3,000 (should get the latter)--and I also get the feeling from what I've been reading the past couple of years, since Santo's induction, that there's a growing awareness of how badly 3B has been treated in the voting. (How badly Santo specifically was treated, going in posthumously, is part of that.) Too late to help Graig Nettles or Buddy Bell or Ron Cey, but I think it will help third basemen going forward. We'll see when Rolen comes around, although his path is tougher--he'll be plunked down in the middle of what will still be a glut, his case is more dependent on sabermetrics than Beltre's will be, and his career is more fragmented than Beltre's.
― clemenza, Friday, 18 July 2014 15:57 (ten years ago) link
Rolen will also have the good luck to come onto the ballot the same year as Chipper.
― clemenza, Friday, 18 July 2014 16:06 (ten years ago) link
I think C.C Sabathia will be the stick the next generation of pitchers will be compared to. Lesser stats than him is a sure out of the HOF, better is a sure in.
― Van Horn Street, Friday, 18 July 2014 19:26 (ten years ago) link
omfg @ you guys mentioning jose altuve and billy hamilton in a HOF thread
― k3vin k., Friday, 18 July 2014 19:37 (ten years ago) link
we've done this before, but
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_3B.shtml
― son of a lewd monk (Dr Morbius), Friday, 18 July 2014 19:57 (ten years ago) link
Which reminds me that I like Longoria's chances.
― Van Horn Street, Friday, 18 July 2014 20:46 (ten years ago) link
completely forgot that i made this thread. wright's gone completely unmentioned since, was gonna say "funny what three terrible months can do" but apparently he's been good after the first month
altuve and hamilton were brought up to make a point
― linda cardellini (zachlyon), Friday, 18 July 2014 20:52 (ten years ago) link
how about xander bogaerts, he could totally be a league average player someday
― k3vin k., Saturday, 19 July 2014 01:37 (ten years ago) link
hall-of-fame name as a rookie tbh
― mookieproof, Saturday, 19 July 2014 02:05 (ten years ago) link
Predicting HOF 3Bmen is a bit of a sucker's game. They've been overlooked and undervalued in every era, and I don't see that changing any time soon.
I don't see a big difference between Rolen and Beltre's careers (of course Beltre is still active and improving his chances), and Rolen's chances are almost nil right now, so I'm not sure why some of you think that Beltre is a near lock.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Sunday, 20 July 2014 10:19 (ten years ago) link
I think I'm closer to 'should be' than 'is'
― son of a lewd monk (Dr Morbius), Sunday, 20 July 2014 17:10 (ten years ago) link
I'm closer to "is," for the reasons above. What's the makeup of the electorate now? Maybe 2/3 old-school and 1/3 sabermetric? 3/4 vs. 1/4? Just guessing...I'm sure many, like a Verducci, fall somewhere between. Anyway, when Beltre's up 8 or 9 years down the road, I'm sure at worst it'll be 50-50. And he should have lots for both camps.
1) Sabermetrically, Beltre's ahead of Rolen in WAR by 4 games at the moment. When he finishes, he should be 10 ahead or more, unless he falls apart next season.
2) More traditionally--in "counting stats," if you prefer (I try to avoid that term...)--he's going to have a minimum of 400 HR, more likely closer to 450, and close to 3,000 hits; Rolen is at 316/2077. Beltre may even win a batting title this year. Whether you want it to or not, that stuff will matter to older voters.
Speculation, but I also think there's a growing awareness that 3B is under-represented, and some lingering embarrassment over the handling of Santo.
James adds one more factor (yes, I sent him a "Hey Bill" the other day): "Some of it is image. Rolen had battles with his managers in at least two cities, which tended to shape his image. Beltre, on the other hand, is an interesting, cheerful, person...oddly combining 'highly competitive' with 'friendly,' which not many people can do...and I think there is more understanding of the fact that he's a tremendous player, although I'm not really sure he is better than Rolen."
His words--no idea if that'll make a difference or not.
― clemenza, Sunday, 20 July 2014 21:39 (ten years ago) link
I think Rolen's general lack of health also part of his image.
― One bad call from barely losing to (Alex in SF), Monday, 21 July 2014 01:31 (ten years ago) link
Definitely. But Beltre has some baggage too -- before his season with Boston in '10, he was viewed as a guy who had one fluke year in '04 but was otherwise something of a failure (even though he wasn't) and a poor free agent signing for Seattle.
If he gets 3000 hits and 450 HR he's in, but it shouldn't be that simple. I think he'd have the lowest OBP of anyone with 3000 hits (currently .335, will likely be lower by the end of his career).
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Monday, 21 July 2014 13:24 (ten years ago) link
although it mainly appears driven by his AVG - his OBP has been improving as he's aged (or played in more hitter friendly parks)... whatever the cause, i would not be shocked if his career OBP on retirement wound up above where it is now.
― Porto for Pyros (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 21 July 2014 14:56 (ten years ago) link
I took a look at Fangraphs--I always use Baseball Reference out of habit and preference--and they've got Rolen slightly ahead in WAR by a game or two. Another thing that could figure into this would be where Beltre ends up if he gets moved.
― clemenza, Monday, 21 July 2014 15:21 (ten years ago) link