I was only interested in Maddux's speech--think I heard him speak about 67 words during his career, commercials included--so I'm glad he was first. Still an enigma. Nice that he mentioned all his catchers.
Most distinguished looking old guy: Juan Marichal.Morphing into the Big Lebowski: Robin Yount.
― clemenza, Sunday, 27 July 2014 18:18 (ten years ago) link
I stuck around for Cox's speech. He had an anecdote about Glavine, then one about Maddux. The Glavine story was pretty good. The Maddux story was a mess--not very funny, and he kept losing his place. Maddux is supposed to be an exceptionally funny guy, but he didn't really show that side in his own speech. I'd like to think he sidled up to Cox on the podium and said something like, "Jesus, Skip, what the fuck was that all about?"
― clemenza, Sunday, 27 July 2014 23:06 (ten years ago) link
The Maddux story was a mess--not very funny, and he kept losing his place. - was he drunk?
― balls, Sunday, 27 July 2014 23:09 (ten years ago) link
Just age, I assume--73 now. (MLB has a clip of the Glavine story up, but not the Maddux.)
― clemenza, Sunday, 27 July 2014 23:12 (ten years ago) link
Don't think anyone's going to mistake Maddux for a batboy with that double chin he's got going on.
― Call the Doctorb, the B is for Brownstein (Leee), Sunday, 27 July 2014 23:38 (ten years ago) link
la russa's speech was typical awkward coach with a lot of sad laughter and he managed to convince me he's been having marital problems for years
― linda cardellini (zachlyon), Monday, 28 July 2014 00:32 (ten years ago) link
Nate Silver: Mussina hurt most by rule changes
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-players-will-be-most-affected-by-the-hall-of-fames-new-rules/
― son of a lewd monk (Dr Morbius), Friday, 1 August 2014 15:37 (ten years ago) link
Revived for general purposes. Very quick list from the active WAR leaders--add/delete/adjust as needed. (Trying to guess actual voting; omitting anyone with a PED problem.)
Safe: Pujols, Jeter, Ichiro, RiveraProbably safe too, but a half-notch lower on the rung: Cabrera, HalladayClose to safe: Beltre, Mauer, Cano, VerlanderVery good bet: FelixGetting stronger: Votto, Wright, LongoriaMaybe: Beltran, Helton, PedroiaEarly jump: Trout, Harper, Kershaw, Strasburg, McCutcheon
That's only 21 names--historically, there are about 30 HOF-bound players active in a given year. As there would be this year without PEDs.
― clemenza, Monday, August 19, 2013 2:51 PM (2 years ago)
update!
safe: pujols, ichiro, cabrera, beltreclose to safe: trout, kershaw,good bets: mauer, cano, beltran, felix, needs a good second half: votto, wright, grienke, longoria, posey, goldschmidt, scherzer, price, arrieta, lesterborderline: utley, beltranslipping: teixiera, sabathia, tulowitzki, verlanderrising: mccutcheon, harper, donaldson, madbum, sale, machado, strasburgwild card: ortiz
― k3vin k., Wednesday, 25 May 2016 16:12 (eight years ago) link
take that second beltran out of borderline
― k3vin k., Wednesday, 25 May 2016 16:14 (eight years ago) link
i'd demote mauer. i mean hey, i'd vote for him just based off of his great run while he was catching, but i think the lackluster production in the the last few years, particularly when he's playing at 1B/DH, will be enough to put him in Borderline for a lot of voters.
― I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 25 May 2016 16:24 (eight years ago) link
kinda wondering about pedroia and kinsler at this point, those dudes are neck-and-neck in WAR and got some years left. this season they've both got a WAR around 2.0 already.
love mauer but he feels like mattingly or will clark, those guys were surefire during their peaks but then fell off and not as badly as mauer has. the fact he was a catcher during his peak would help a bit i think but i don't know...
― nomar, Wednesday, 25 May 2016 16:26 (eight years ago) link
i think the only way mauer would get in is if he had a couple of unexpected 6+ WAR seasons over the next few years to top his career off.it's not really fair or logical but i don't see him getting in based solely off of his first 10 years, as impressive as they were.
― I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 25 May 2016 16:29 (eight years ago) link
yeah i wasn't sure whether to put mauer under good bet or slipping
kinsler i'm not sure had a high enough peak. even if he somehow puts up another 20 WAR over the next 6-7 years, you're still talking about a guy with a 35-win 7-year peakpedroia's got the advantage of a better peak and the rings, i should have had him under "needs a good second half" maybe
― k3vin k., Wednesday, 25 May 2016 16:34 (eight years ago) link
Mauer's chances ended w/ his catching career
― we can be heroes just for about 3.6 seconds (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 25 May 2016 16:37 (eight years ago) link
arrieta would have to be literally this dominant for a minimum of the next like 6 years? don't see it
― johnny crunch, Wednesday, 25 May 2016 16:39 (eight years ago) link
yeah the only reason i threw him on there was because david schoenfield had an article about him today, which prompted this revive. i don't really see it either, unless like you said he continues to dominate for at least another 5-6 years. he's already 30
― k3vin k., Wednesday, 25 May 2016 16:41 (eight years ago) link
trout and kershaw i'm pretty sure could die tragically tomorrow and both make a run at the first ballot
― k3vin k., Wednesday, 25 May 2016 16:42 (eight years ago) link
you have to have 10 seasons; not sure if that's been waived for anyone (Addie Joss?)
― we can be heroes just for about 3.6 seconds (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 25 May 2016 16:47 (eight years ago) link
didn't know about the 10-year rule!
― k3vin k., Wednesday, 25 May 2016 16:50 (eight years ago) link
Joss did get in w/ 9 seasons (died at 31 of tb)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Addie_Joss#Recognition
― we can be heroes just for about 3.6 seconds (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 25 May 2016 17:24 (eight years ago) link
i forgot how young giancarlo stanton is, too. he probably needs to be on the board somewhere
― k3vin k., Wednesday, 25 May 2016 19:59 (eight years ago) link
Schoenfield made an interesting case for Arrieta. Sure, he's only 1.5 seasons into the 7-8 year peak that he needs, so it's all just fortune telling at this point, but there is an impressive list of pitchers who didn't dominate until they hit their 30's and went on to make the HOF.
Unless a bunch of writers won't vote for Ortiz because of his 2003 drug tests (which might very well happen), I don't see how he isn't a shoo-in at this point.
Mauer's drop-off is surprising. Three years ago he was a no-brainer for me, I figured he's be piling up a few more .400 OBP seasons and remaining marginally productive for a few years after that, but he's fallen off a cliff.
Halladay already seems like ancient history. If Schilling and Mussina can't get close then I'm not sure what it'll take for Doc. Maybe voter attitudes are changing, with "low win" pitchers like Smoltz and Pedro getting in easily.
rising: mccutcheon, harper, donaldson, madbum, sale, machado, strasburg
Strasburg has no chance (not dominant enough, too injury-prone). It's way too early to say with Harper, as of right now he's had one season + one month of Bonds-ian numbers, and a few years of of ups and downs. I'd put my money on Cutch and Madbum though. If Bumgarner wins another championship he can probably Pettitte his way into the HOF, even if his career numbers/WAR aren't as dominant as his contemporaries.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Wednesday, 25 May 2016 20:24 (eight years ago) link
you had me worried for a second that Pettitte was in already! He shouldn't get in.
Strasburg has no chance RIGHT NOW, I'd say, not that it looks probable.
― we can be heroes just for about 3.6 seconds (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 25 May 2016 20:31 (eight years ago) link
ortiz may be helped by the postseason success. he's definitely no shoo-in, though -- his career OPS+ of 140 puts him at 76th all-time, before you even get to the fact that he doesn't play defense. plus, it's hard to make the case that he should be in the hall if a clearly superior DH (martinez) still isn't in
strasburg's 27! and seems to be figuring things out
― k3vin k., Wednesday, 25 May 2016 20:55 (eight years ago) link
I meant that Bumgarner's HOF case will be a lot like Pettitte's.
Strasburg has no chance right now, and I can't see a plausible path to get him there.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Wednesday, 25 May 2016 20:58 (eight years ago) link
plus, it's hard to make the case that he should be in the hall if a clearly superior DH (martinez) still isn't in
But it's not either/or -- they should both be in. Edgar not getting voted in isn't a reason to not support Ortiz getting voted in.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Wednesday, 25 May 2016 21:07 (eight years ago) link
i refuse to cast my imaginary vote for Ortiz until Edgar gets in.
― Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Wednesday, 25 May 2016 21:13 (eight years ago) link
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Wednesday, May 25, 2016 5:07 PM (21 minutes ago)
right, i meant that if voters aren't letting edgar in easy, it's no sure thing that ortiz will waltz in
― k3vin k., Wednesday, 25 May 2016 21:30 (eight years ago) link
Surely helps that Papi played in Boston and won rings?
― Jenny Ondioleeene (Leee), Wednesday, 25 May 2016 21:48 (eight years ago) link
helped Jim Rice! one KIND of ring, at least
― we can be heroes just for about 3.6 seconds (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 25 May 2016 22:06 (eight years ago) link
safe: pujols, ichiro, cabrera, beltreclose to safe: trout, kershaw,good bets: mauer, cano, beltran, felix,needs a good second half: votto, wright, grienke, longoria, posey, goldschmidt, scherzer, price, arrieta, lesterborderline: utley, beltranslipping: teixiera, sabathia, tulowitzki, verlanderrising: mccutcheon, harper, donaldson, madbum, sale, machado, strasburgwild card: ortiz
― k3vin k.
Safe: agree with all of those. I'd also put in whoever lobbied hardest for "No--let Albert walk, we'll be okay."
Close to safe: agree. With Kershaw, maybe even closer to Safe than Close to Safe.
Good bets: Cano and Felix agree. I'd drop Mauer's chances precipitously. Beltran, I just don't know.
Needs a good second half: Not that big on Greinke yet. 40% of his career WAR was compiled in two seasons; other than that, one season a little over 5.0. See very little chance for Lester. I think Arrieta might be Mike Scott or somebody like that--long way away, I'd say.
Borderline: Yes--this is where I'd put Beltran. Utley, I don't know.
Slipping: Yes. I'm almost of the belief that Tulowitzki is a figment of Coors field.
Rising: I'd grade McCutchen, Harper, Bumgarner, and Sale higher. Donaldson's interesting--would have said no chance until last year, would need to stay around 7.0+ for four or five more years. Strasburg, I don't know. Fragile.
Wild card: As I wrote on the Red Sox thread, I used to be very much a no-Edgar/no-Ortiz guy, but I'm with NoTime now--he's sailed past that with the third WS, 500 HR, and possibly greatest farewell tour ever. With the voters, I mean--myself, I'm probably still on the fence.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 25 May 2016 22:11 (eight years ago) link
I'd also throw Craig Kimbrel in there somewhere. I realize closers are up against right now in HOF and award voting, but I think he might be the Rivera-like exception. He'd have to keep going for a long time, and would probably need to throw in a decent amount of Kimbrel-like post-season innings, too.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 25 May 2016 22:26 (eight years ago) link
"up against it"
solid argument for mauer:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_C.shtml
― reggae mike love (polyphonic), Wednesday, 25 May 2016 22:29 (eight years ago) link
No idea where voters' heads will be at 15 years from now, but I think Mauer may end up having an Andruw Jones problem, where almost all his career value is compiled before he's 30. He's working on his third consecutive season of a sub-.400 SLG, especially deadly for a converted 1B/DH.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 25 May 2016 22:59 (eight years ago) link
He has a higher OPS this year than Adrian Gonzalez, Jose Abreu, and Joey Votto
― reggae mike love (polyphonic), Thursday, 26 May 2016 00:02 (eight years ago) link
Yadier Molina's name pops up a lot in HOF discussions, and many people think he'll eventually get in for his defense, leadership, playing ball the Cardinal Way, great taste in shoes, etc.
It's interesting to see that he's below Buster Posey, Russell Martin, and Victor Martinez (!) on the JAWS list.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Thursday, 26 May 2016 00:26 (eight years ago) link
(xpost) True, but doesn't that say more about the other three guys having sub=par years than it does about Mauer? .758 is very mediocre for a first baseman.
Forgot about Molina. Was never sure about him, and I find catchers tough to gauge unless they're really obvious. Ages ago, I thought Sundberg and Boone had an outside shot, but I was giving way too much weight to their defense; Sundberg was one-and-out, Boone lasted five ballots but never got over 8%.
― clemenza, Thursday, 26 May 2016 01:05 (eight years ago) link
yeah Posey has to be in the rising list.
― Van Horn Street, Thursday, 26 May 2016 03:55 (eight years ago) link
one other name to toss in there in ryan braun but obviously the PED thing and how he handled it is gonna wreck his shot.
― nomar, Thursday, 26 May 2016 04:52 (eight years ago) link
ortiz is closer to sure thing than wild card imo, those old baseball dudes aren't all dead yet
was cynical about those pitchers but there was some thing a while back that showed something like most HOF pitchers amassed the majority of their WAR in their 30s and 40s. longevity is a huge factor for pitchers, also impossible to predict. i reckon there's at least one 0_o dude in his late 20s right now who will eventually end up with the credentials.
― qualx, Thursday, 26 May 2016 05:31 (eight years ago) link
Bonds, Clemens and A-Rod will be in inside 40 years if C'town is not under water
― we can be heroes just for about 3.6 seconds (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 26 May 2016 11:36 (eight years ago) link
kind of on this topic, i was looking at the active HR leaders list and 500 HR used to be a guarantee for HOF election (not lately for a couple reasons, obv.) but it looks like the 500 HR club won't see many new members for awhile after cabrera (almost definitely) and beltre (maybe? 50/50 shot?)
i'm thinking beltran and teixeira could have a couple more years with decent HR totals but i don't know about hitting well enough for long enough to get to 500.
not sure about the rest of these clowns. i used the 200+ club as an arbitrary cutoff.
Carlos Beltran (19, 39) - 402 Mark Teixeira (14, 36) - 397 Ryan Howard (13, 36) - 365 Prince Fielder (12, 32) - 313Jose Bautista (13, 35) - 296 Adrian Gonzalez (13, 34) - 294 Matt Holliday (13, 36) - 282 Edwin Encarnacion (12, 33) - 277Curtis Granderson (13, 35) - 271 Ryan Braun (10, 32) - 263 Robinson Cano (12, 33) - 253 Nelson Cruz (12, 35) - 251 Nick Swisher (12, 35) - 245David Wright (13, 33) - 241Mark Reynolds (10, 32 - 239) Chase Utley (14, 37) - 238 Brian McCann (12, 32) - 231 Jimmy Rollins (17, 37) - 231 Jay Bruce (9, 29) - 216 Matt Kemp (11, 31) - 215 Hanley Ramirez (12, 32) - 214 Chris Davis (9, 30) - 213 Evan Longoria (9, 30) - 213 Mike Napoli (11, 34) - 212 Victor Martinez (14, 37) - 206 Ryan Zimmerman (12, 31) - 206 Jayson Werth (14, 37) - 204 Adam Jones (11, 30) - 201 Hunter Pence (10, 33) - 201 Troy Tulowitzki (11, 31) - 201 Josh Hamilton (9, 35) - 200
Trout, Harper, and Stanton would seem like solid bets for the under 200 crowd. Stanton is barely under 200, he's at 193. Goldschmidt? I don't know.
― nomar, Thursday, 26 May 2016 20:32 (eight years ago) link
so, i was wondering about Santana the other day (I was playing OOTP baseball and when the HOF vote came up I was giving him some serious thought). his career counting stats aren't close to what you would hope for, he dropped off quickly with his injuries. but for about 6 years he was insanely dominant. it's crazy how good he was. i don't think he'll get in, but his peak from '03-'08 was hard to ignore.another name that looked surprising good looking back: Jason Giambi.
― Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Thursday, 26 May 2016 20:50 (eight years ago) link
If you're going to have a 5- or 6-year peak, it has to be Koufax-level. Gooden's career counting stats have as good or better a case as Johan's, I think?
― we can be heroes just for about 3.6 seconds (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 26 May 2016 20:58 (eight years ago) link
Oh we're not talking about Ervin Santana?
― Jenny Ondioleeene (Leee), Thursday, 26 May 2016 21:02 (eight years ago) link
no, Danny.
― Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Thursday, 26 May 2016 21:04 (eight years ago) link
True, but doesn't that say more about the other three guys having sub=par years than it does about Mauer? .758 is very mediocre for a first baseman.
Clearly he's not a slugger, but he's a good contact hitter, has superb plate discipline, and is a good defender. That's why he's currently third-best among 1B in WAR. Obviously he's wouldn't be a Hall of Famer as a 1B but he's a Hall of Fame caliber catcher who unfortunately should not play catcher anymore due head injuries. But despite that he's still a solid starting player at a very offensively-demanding position. He has the same 2016 OPS as ILB-anointed Hall of Famer Buster Posey! (who is well on his way to becoming a 1B himself)
― reggae mike love (polyphonic), Thursday, 26 May 2016 21:13 (eight years ago) link
― Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Thursday, May 26, 2016 4:50 PM (25 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
i'm not sure you really get how the hall of fame works
― k3vin k., Thursday, 26 May 2016 21:17 (eight years ago) link
Jason Giambi's peak WAS surprising, I wonder how he did that
― reggae mike love (polyphonic), Thursday, 26 May 2016 21:18 (eight years ago) link