2015 NL cy young

http://i.imgur.com/md71zmU.gifv

You still have to pitch.

also Arrieta wd be a first-time winner (forgot ZG won with KC)

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^not ready to vote, there are more starts left...

maybe ck when the season ends next time

lol we can still use this thread for discush

just ribbin ya yankeefan

joe po http://sportsworld.nbcsports.com/cy-young-jake-arrieta-zack-greinke-clayton-kershaw/

Why? Well, I could give you lots of reasons why I would vote for any of those guys, but in the end the decisive factor for me would be how well they’ve pitched on the road. Dodger Stadium is a better pitchers’ park than Wrigley Field (though Wrigley, unexpectedly, does lean toward pitchers). It has been a huge advantage for pitchers going back to Drysdale and Koufax, and this year, Greinke has a 1.48 ERA there and Kershaw (as usual) has been almost unhittable there.

What about on the road, though?

Arrieta: 12-1, 1.68 ERA, 4.9-to-1 strikeout to walk, 4 homers allowed
Greinke: 9-2, 1.88 ERA, 4.2-to-1 strikeout to walk, 6 homers allowed
Kerhsaw: 5-4, 2.60 ERA, 6-to-1 strikeout to walk, 9 homers allowed

Road numbers are not everything, of course. But Arrieta’s road ERA is the lowest for any regular starter in the last decade (Greinke’s is fourth lowest, so he’s no road slouch either). All year, Arrieta has gone into some of the toughest ballparks in baseball and pitched incredibly well. His one time in Dodger Stadium, he threw a shutout.

I applaud this column.

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8 arrieta
5 greinke
1 kershaw

even as a sorta arrieta supporter the lack of kershaw support seems off. should've been 6 arrieta 4 greinke 4 kershaw imo

i yabstained

Arietta tonight, Greinke tomorrow, Kershaw on Sunday; probably still up in the air.

does anyone have "strength of opponents" stats handy?

Arrieta has a shot at having a second half era lower than his second half whip (currently 0.80 era, 0.75 whip)

nine of arrieta's starts came against the cardinals and pirates, had a 1.45 era in 62 innings

one would expect kershaw/greinke's strength of opponents to be similar to each other and weaker than arrieta's

points off for me misspelling his name every goddamn time tho

i guess you'd want to look at the wRC+ of other teams in the division that they'd be facing the most.

Arrieta

Cardinals: 97
Pirates: 99
Brewers: 87
Reds: 90
Average: 93.25

Kershaw + Greinke

Giants: 106
Diamondbacks: 96
Rockies: 85
Padres: 91
Average: 94.5

not the most rigorous analysis of course, because maybe kershaw faced the giants more often than greinke (or vice versa), but it all seems to be about a wash.

there's probably a better way to do it with b-ref but i'm not as familiar with their tools and i have a hangover so

Damon: Who’s your NL Cy Young?

Klaw: I’d have Kershaw first, but I don’t think Greinke or Arrieta are a ‘wrong’ choice here.

Ed: Aren’t Arrieta’s and Greinke’s ERAs within the range of error at this point? I keep hearing Greinke’s ERA as his trump card in the Cy Young race. Seems to be splitting hairs at this point.

Klaw: Yes, although Arrieta has had some absolute joke opponents of late too – that Brewers game where they started a AAA lineup comes to mind. Again, I don’t think either guy is clearly better.

His second-half ERA (0.75) is the lowest...ever. Gibson struggled along at 1.19 in '68.

(Arrieta, I mean--forgot this was a general Cy Young thread.)

Looking forward to next year's "Most Similar by Ages" update on Arrieta's Baseball Reference page:

24. John Briggs (993)
25. Bud Norris (990)
26. Jason Hammel (978)
27. Micah Owings (986)
28. Rodrigo Lopez (979)
29. Cy Young/Pedro Martinez/Sandy Koufax/Bob Gibson/etc.

Honestly--what happened? He made a big leap last year, but how do you go from a terrible pitcher from 24-26--literally terrible--to historically great at 29? Even with someone like Randy Johnson, you can look at his career box and see that it was just a case of getting some control; you can still see the outline of his later dominance in his first few years.

Avg opponents runs (from bb ref)
Arrieta: 4.20
Kershaw: 4.22
Greinke: 4.24

soo, not exactly a huge difference, but not sure how thoroughly those numbers are calculated.

"He made a big leap last year, but how do you go from a terrible pitcher from 24-26--literally terrible--to historically great at 29?"

It's not totally unusual. I think the big thing is that usually the pitcher gains control of a certain pitch that is nearly unhittable and then they can combine it with experience on how to setup hitters. Arrieta has definitely taken it to another level.

Mike Scott and Dave Stewart are a couple of guys that came to mind for seemingly came out of nowhere to become one of the best pitchers in the game. (Obviously Scott's pitch he learned was considered controversial by some.) Schilling had been pretty inconsistent and at age 29-30 pretty much became dominant.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/scottmi03.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stewada01.shtml

the cubs changed his mechanics and positioning on the mound also

That's what I was looking for, a tangible explanation. Scott's a good comparison, and the explanation is that he developed what was, for a year or two anyway, an all-but-unhittable split-finger. I don't know if Stewart's a good comparison. With him, I think it was more that he ended up in the right place at the right time; he was a good pitcher and a workhorse, but in the four years he won 20, his ERA was in the 3.00s three times, and his WHIPs were in the 1.200-1.300 range. He was never dominant. Schilling was great as a 25-year-old, and he struck out 300 at 30 and 300 again at 31; he just couldn't stay healthy until he got to Arizona.

an all-but-unhittable spitter

I was thinking about Stewart as A's got him off waivers, he was literally on baseball's garbage pile. Not many times you get a guy off waivers that ends up anchoring your rotation like he did for that club back then.

I do see your comparison in broad outline--reclamation project, emerges at age 30 as the ace of a mini-dynasty. It's more a question of magnitude. Stewart wasn't all that different a pitcher before and after the A's got him:

1978-85 (Dodgers/Rangers/Phillies): 3.96 ERA, 1.356 WHIP, 1.55 K/BB
1987-90 (his four 20-win seasons): 3.20 ERA, 1.241 WHIP, 1.96 K/BB

('86 was split between the Phillies and A's, and I'm too lazy at the moment to manually add in those partial seasons.)

Obviously a better pitcher, and credit to the A's for seeing what other teams missed. But Arrieta's turnaround is much, much more dramatic.

2010-12 (Orioles): 5.33 ERA, 1.451 WHIP, 1.79 K/BB
2014-15 (Cubs): 2.08 ERA, 0.915 WHIP, 3.53 K/BB

(Same split-season in the middle of that.)

Arrieta's 2014-15 K/BB ratio should read 4.53.

Someone asked if Scherzer has had the best season that will not get a single point in the Cy voting.

he'll probably get a few. Cy ballot has 5 spots, and by fWAR he's in 3rd (leapfrogging Greinke last night) and 4th by bWAR.

but yeah, crazy to have a season with 2 no-hitters (and a 1-hitter and a 2-hitter), strong performances otherwise, and not even be in the conversation

his previous start he had a no hitter going into the eighth inning.