i would also vote for Beltran but i feel like the voters aren't gonna give him a fair shake.
kinda wondering about guys like longoria and votto too.
longoria is gonna get close to 40 HR this year, he's only 30, he's at 46.5 WAR. etc...
votto is having a great year w/the stick but his WAR isn't great because apparently he's garbage on defense.
― nomar, Wednesday, 21 September 2016 17:30 (eight years ago) link
i'm always surprised at the relative low numbers for votto's counting stats, too, since he's been so consistently excellent for the last 8 years.
his career OBP, though - .425 - is astounding. he's 12th all-time, and the only other active player over .400 is Mike Trout (45th all-time)
― I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 21 September 2016 18:54 (eight years ago) link
probably an obvious point but i do think that this season has basically guaranteed big papi is getting in. his WAR this year isn't ridiculous and neither is his career WAR, but i think he's probably won over a few fence-straddlers at this point.
― nomar, Wednesday, 21 September 2016 19:03 (eight years ago) link
― nomar, Wednesday, September 21, 2016 1:30 PM (one hour ago)
votto's been an above-average defender (at first base, of course) his whole career, this season seems to be some sort of fluke. but yeah he's got a lot of work to do to get to the HOF. though he's a smart guy and i bet his hitting skills will age well
― have you ever even read The Drudge Report? Have you gone on Stormfron (k3vin k.), Wednesday, 21 September 2016 19:21 (eight years ago) link
yeah votto seems like one of those guys who would at worst lose the power but maintain the average and high BB rate. for the HOF though he seems like potentially this generation's version of will clark (albeit far more of a comedian about his villainy)
― nomar, Wednesday, 21 September 2016 19:31 (eight years ago) link
sounds a little like Helton
― Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Wednesday, 21 September 2016 19:52 (eight years ago) link
If Ortiz had retired in 2012 he would have been a borderline case that would have stirred up some interesting debate. However, his 2013 season sealed the deal in the eyes of most HOF voters and after 2015-6, his career stats are too ridiculous even for statheads to ignore. Earning the rep as one of the best "old" hitters ever doesn't hurt either.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Wednesday, 21 September 2016 20:16 (eight years ago) link
or THE best old hitter.
- most homers in a final season- on track for most RBI in a final season (passing shoeless joe)- most doubles by a 40-year-old
― illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Wednesday, 21 September 2016 20:23 (eight years ago) link
i still lol at this:
http://www.espn.com/espnmag/story?id=4223584
― nomar, Wednesday, 21 September 2016 20:27 (eight years ago) link
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Wednesday, September 21, 2016 4:16 PM (one hour ago)
wait, which numbers are these? 500 home runs?
― have you ever even read The Drudge Report? Have you gone on Stormfron (k3vin k.), Wednesday, 21 September 2016 21:48 (eight years ago) link
Yeah, 500 HR and leapfrogging about 20 names on the all-time HR leaderboard, including a few inner circle HOFers. Same for RBI's and doubles (10th all time, between Aaron and Wagner, not bad).
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Wednesday, 21 September 2016 22:08 (eight years ago) link
Another second baseman I think has a chance is Dustin Pedroia. Not saying he is a lock, I think we all agree he is not at this point. Is it me or second basemen are difficult to predict when it comes to the HOF? Alomar and Sandberg were obvious locks (2nd and 3rd ballot), but Whitaker got 2.9%, some people are saying Utley should not get in. Anyway, Pedroia has had a 5 fWAR season, and sits at 46.5 and probably has a good 4-5 years left in him. He has the trophies, MVP, etc. Hopefully, we will see all three of Cano, Utley and Pedroia in.
― Van Horn Street, Wednesday, 21 September 2016 22:20 (eight years ago) link
i think weirdly, what might hurt him is he got the hardware in his first two years and everything so far kinda of looks like decline after that.
― Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Thursday, 22 September 2016 00:29 (eight years ago) link
R u srs about Pedroia having 4-5 yrs left
― How Butch, I mean (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Thursday, 22 September 2016 00:34 (eight years ago) link
i dunno. 4 years wouldn't shock me.
― Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Thursday, 22 September 2016 01:13 (eight years ago) link
BP did a "draft" of the 25 most likely active HOFers a couple weeks ago. As i think it was a free article i'll try to find the link, in the hopes no one will be posting about this discredited institution in the middle of playoff games next month...
― The Hon. J. Piedmont Mumblethunder (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 22 September 2016 01:19 (eight years ago) link
Dustin Pedroia has had a pretty good season, it's really all about injuries and bat speed I'd figure. I'd say the thing that will boost Pedroia is staying with the Red Sox his whole career and being a key part of winning another World Series.
Robbie Alomar looked like a lock for 3000 hits at age 32-33 and kind of fell off a cliff. Sandberg also dropped off hard too, his power vanished.
It would be interesting to know what a guy like Votto would do in a lineup where they couldn't pitch around him. The guy has had Brandon Phillips batting clean up behind him a TON of his career.
― earlnash, Thursday, 22 September 2016 01:31 (eight years ago) link
Sabermetric analyses have shown that lineup "protection" is not statistically significant.
― The Hon. J. Piedmont Mumblethunder (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 22 September 2016 01:39 (eight years ago) link
― nomar, Wednesday, September 21, 2016 3:31 PM (eight months ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
― Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Wednesday, September 21, 2016 3:52 PM (eight months ago)
helton is the comp i most often think about with votto
― k3vin k., Friday, 16 June 2017 03:08 (seven years ago) link
votto's numbers are better despite being non-mile-high (not that gabp is petco, but still)
also he won an mvp
― mookieproof, Friday, 16 June 2017 03:16 (seven years ago) link
helton's peak might just edge votto's out, but votto will end up with the better career probably
― k3vin k., Friday, 16 June 2017 03:40 (seven years ago) link
the reds might be good in a few years, too. winning a WS or at least getting close + Votto being a reds lifer would help his HOF case, even though that's dumb
― Karl Malone, Friday, 16 June 2017 04:00 (seven years ago) link
helton had a couple of WAR years that were 8+ and another one that was close, votto has had one that was 7+. but helton was basically done as a star player after he hit 30, his five-year run as a legit MVP candidate was his peak. votto is 33 and seems to be getting better in certain areas and is on pace for maybe his best season yet.
― nomar, Friday, 16 June 2017 04:10 (seven years ago) link
so here are the guys who are
a) holdovers with a decent enough shot at making the HOF.
or
b) newcomers with a reasonable shot. not included: guys like Berkman, Abreu, etc..
the only ones I'm certain about coming up are Jones, Thome, Rivera, and Jeter. with the holdovers, Hoffman and Guerrero, obviously. no idea on the others. can't tell if E-Mart has any decent momentum or if people will change their minds on Clemens, Bonds, and Schilling. Mussina might have a better chance than any of them, in the end. it'll be interesting. in 2020 it's really just Jeter and no one else. in 2021 there are zero candidates that are worthy. unless you think Tim Hudson, Mark Buehrle, and Torii Hunter belong.
holdovers
Trevor Hoffman 3rdVladimir Guerrero 2ndEdgar Martinez 9thRoger Clemens 6thBarry Bonds 6thMike Mussina 5thCurt Schilling 6thManny Ramirez 2nd
2018
Chipper JonesJim ThomeScott Rolen
2019
Andy PettitteTodd HeltonRoy HalladayMariano Rivera
2020
Derek Jeter
― nomar, Tuesday, 20 June 2017 00:13 (seven years ago) link
i don't wanna be alive for a HOF ceremony that's literally just jeter
― qualx, Tuesday, 20 June 2017 00:41 (seven years ago) link
good news, that might be the same year Schilling makes it
― nomar, Tuesday, 20 June 2017 00:42 (seven years ago) link
actually i think Ortiz will be eligible in 2021, so add him
― nomar, Tuesday, 20 June 2017 00:44 (seven years ago) link
Agree with most of those except Rolen and Pettitte. As always, I'm projecting, not offering an opinion on who deserves to go in.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 20 June 2017 00:50 (seven years ago) link
it'll be sad when hoffman goes in because it'll open up the floodgates for a lot of other relievers
― k3vin k., Tuesday, 20 June 2017 00:56 (seven years ago) link
hoffman was only notable for the saves total and very few relievers will ever get the opportunities he got
― qualx, Tuesday, 20 June 2017 01:01 (seven years ago) link
Honestly, I don't think it will. My sense is that the bar has been set a little below Rivera. I don't think you can reasonably set the bar at Rivera, because you'd essentially be saying that's it for closers in the HOF. After Hoffman, I don't think you'll see another one seriously considered until that group of three I ran the poll on, probably Kimbrel if he stays healthy.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 20 June 2017 01:02 (seven years ago) link
frankie rodriguez is #4 all time and he won't have a shot in hell
― qualx, Tuesday, 20 June 2017 01:03 (seven years ago) link
Pettitte *maybe* comes off better when the era is considered but not much better. he was consistently "good" but only 3 times in 18 seasons did he have a WAR above 4. i guess he may not have much of a shot after all, idk. Rolen is sort of the poor man's Beltre and may be forgotten for awhile. i think he has a reasonable shot only bc his rep among advanced metrics types is vv good but also he was the most forgettable HOF-possible player of recent memory. i'd rather have Larry Walker in than either of these guys, anyway.
― nomar, Tuesday, 20 June 2017 01:03 (seven years ago) link
Hoffman has tenure with one team, a (pretty minor tbh) reliever goatee, and Hell's Bells, and a counting stat that means jack shit. so he'll clear 85% next time around.
― nomar, Tuesday, 20 June 2017 01:04 (seven years ago) link
Walker's only at 15% in this sixth year, and (even though it's not so clear-cut with him) he's got the Coors albatross around him, but I think he's going to be taken up as a cause at some point, like Blyleven and Raines. If he only has 10 years on the ballot, time may run out on him, but I don't know, I'm still confident he'll get in. My own opinion is that he belongs in there.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 20 June 2017 01:11 (seven years ago) link
JAWs has him 10th among right fielders, he's close to the average HOF'er on black ink, less close on gray ink, clears the bar on HOF Monitor and Standards, and four of his ten comps are in the HOF (six of ten if you add Cabrera and Guerrero--all ten have a similarity score under 900, though, making him a somewhat unique player).
― clemenza, Tuesday, 20 June 2017 01:15 (seven years ago) link
rolen would absolutely take a blyleven-level campaign to get in. edmonds too
― qualx, Tuesday, 20 June 2017 01:38 (seven years ago) link
edmonds already fell off with 2.5% of the ballot in year one
― nomar, Tuesday, 20 June 2017 01:40 (seven years ago) link
o lol
― qualx, Tuesday, 20 June 2017 01:56 (seven years ago) link
edgar's gonna make it, though it may require a deadline to concentrate ppls' minds
chipper and thome and rivera and halladay for sure
get back to me on helton when the veterans committee votes in kenny lofton
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 20 June 2017 01:59 (seven years ago) link
but at least trevor hoffman will be getting in, who can forget his memorable song
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esuQ_6oiDkw
vs this hall of very good bollocks
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56f4xH4ZoEM
― nomar, Tuesday, 20 June 2017 02:00 (seven years ago) link
Just a theory--you'd have to study this to see if there's any validity.
In terms of the HOF, there are three kinds of players:
1) Over-qualified people where it doesn't matter how you end your career. Ken Griffey Jr., for example.
2) People who drift for a few seasons at the end, but come out it with some important benchmark. Obvious examples are Biggio and Ichiro. They really milked it, but they got their 3,000 hits, so it's a wash.
3) Everyone else. If you're in this group, I think it helps if you end your career still playing reasonably well. Walker and Guerrero, while not the players they used to be, were still hitting okay towards the end. More superficially for Guerrero, but you take a quick look at their stats and you don't wonder why they were still playing. With people like Andruw Jones, Mauer and Utley, Rolen to an extent, there's just too much drift between their peak and the end of their careers.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 20 June 2017 02:02 (seven years ago) link
― qualx, Monday, June 19, 2017 9:01 PM (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
you're gonna love when aroldis chapman wins a couple titles and passes hoffman in WAR, and people say "well if HOFFMAN is in..."
― k3vin k., Tuesday, 20 June 2017 02:04 (seven years ago) link
Has there been a single iffy pick since (depending upon your point of view) either Dawson in 2010 or Rice in 2009? (I guess there'll be Hoffman this year.) There doesn't seem to be very many writers left who invoke that line of reasoning. The problem the last few years has been who gets left out, not who goes in.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 20 June 2017 02:13 (seven years ago) link
but players are always comparing candidates to the other players enshrined at that position. and electing another reliever makes it more like a legit HOF position and less like rivera was a special case
― k3vin k., Tuesday, 20 June 2017 02:21 (seven years ago) link
xp ichiro was def a first ballot guy before anyone had any idea he'd go for 3000
― qualx, Tuesday, 20 June 2017 02:23 (seven years ago) link
you could argue this has already happened, hoffman obviously never has a chance to get in if rivera's not already guaranteed to go in
― k3vin k., Tuesday, 20 June 2017 02:24 (seven years ago) link
yeah i think hoffman's so close in total number of saves that people are like "well hey he's almost as good" but i mean hoffman wasn't even as good as billy wagner.
― nomar, Tuesday, 20 June 2017 02:27 (seven years ago) link
it's gonna be a decade or two probably before any RPs get a shot after mo/hoffman get in, and by then who knows what the story will be.
hoffman had a narrative surrounding him for the latter half of his career that made him sound like he was destined to go into the hall because of that saves total. lee smith didn't get it but he did. i don't think that'll happen again with any predictability
― qualx, Tuesday, 20 June 2017 02:27 (seven years ago) link
We see that differently, Kevin. I think Rivera hurts Hoffman, not helps him. If there's no Rivera, Hoffman sails in--he'd be #1 on the save list by 100+, with what were once good rate stats for a closer. Rivera raised the bar so high, especially with regards to post-season, that Hoffman will maybe get close to 80%, and then, I believe, that door closes for a decade.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 20 June 2017 02:35 (seven years ago) link