Walker's only at 15% in this sixth year, and (even though it's not so clear-cut with him) he's got the Coors albatross around him, but I think he's going to be taken up as a cause at some point, like Blyleven and Raines. If he only has 10 years on the ballot, time may run out on him, but I don't know, I'm still confident he'll get in. My own opinion is that he belongs in there.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 20 June 2017 01:11 (seven years ago) link
JAWs has him 10th among right fielders, he's close to the average HOF'er on black ink, less close on gray ink, clears the bar on HOF Monitor and Standards, and four of his ten comps are in the HOF (six of ten if you add Cabrera and Guerrero--all ten have a similarity score under 900, though, making him a somewhat unique player).
― clemenza, Tuesday, 20 June 2017 01:15 (seven years ago) link
rolen would absolutely take a blyleven-level campaign to get in. edmonds too
― qualx, Tuesday, 20 June 2017 01:38 (seven years ago) link
edmonds already fell off with 2.5% of the ballot in year one
― nomar, Tuesday, 20 June 2017 01:40 (seven years ago) link
o lol
― qualx, Tuesday, 20 June 2017 01:56 (seven years ago) link
edgar's gonna make it, though it may require a deadline to concentrate ppls' minds
chipper and thome and rivera and halladay for sure
get back to me on helton when the veterans committee votes in kenny lofton
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 20 June 2017 01:59 (seven years ago) link
but at least trevor hoffman will be getting in, who can forget his memorable song
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esuQ_6oiDkw
vs this hall of very good bollocks
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56f4xH4ZoEM
― nomar, Tuesday, 20 June 2017 02:00 (seven years ago) link
Just a theory--you'd have to study this to see if there's any validity.
In terms of the HOF, there are three kinds of players:
1) Over-qualified people where it doesn't matter how you end your career. Ken Griffey Jr., for example.
2) People who drift for a few seasons at the end, but come out it with some important benchmark. Obvious examples are Biggio and Ichiro. They really milked it, but they got their 3,000 hits, so it's a wash.
3) Everyone else. If you're in this group, I think it helps if you end your career still playing reasonably well. Walker and Guerrero, while not the players they used to be, were still hitting okay towards the end. More superficially for Guerrero, but you take a quick look at their stats and you don't wonder why they were still playing. With people like Andruw Jones, Mauer and Utley, Rolen to an extent, there's just too much drift between their peak and the end of their careers.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 20 June 2017 02:02 (seven years ago) link
hoffman was only notable for the saves total and very few relievers will ever get the opportunities he got
― qualx, Monday, June 19, 2017 9:01 PM (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
you're gonna love when aroldis chapman wins a couple titles and passes hoffman in WAR, and people say "well if HOFFMAN is in..."
― k3vin k., Tuesday, 20 June 2017 02:04 (seven years ago) link
Has there been a single iffy pick since (depending upon your point of view) either Dawson in 2010 or Rice in 2009? (I guess there'll be Hoffman this year.) There doesn't seem to be very many writers left who invoke that line of reasoning. The problem the last few years has been who gets left out, not who goes in.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 20 June 2017 02:13 (seven years ago) link
but players are always comparing candidates to the other players enshrined at that position. and electing another reliever makes it more like a legit HOF position and less like rivera was a special case
― k3vin k., Tuesday, 20 June 2017 02:21 (seven years ago) link
xp ichiro was def a first ballot guy before anyone had any idea he'd go for 3000
― qualx, Tuesday, 20 June 2017 02:23 (seven years ago) link
you could argue this has already happened, hoffman obviously never has a chance to get in if rivera's not already guaranteed to go in
― k3vin k., Tuesday, 20 June 2017 02:24 (seven years ago) link
yeah i think hoffman's so close in total number of saves that people are like "well hey he's almost as good" but i mean hoffman wasn't even as good as billy wagner.
― nomar, Tuesday, 20 June 2017 02:27 (seven years ago) link
it's gonna be a decade or two probably before any RPs get a shot after mo/hoffman get in, and by then who knows what the story will be.
hoffman had a narrative surrounding him for the latter half of his career that made him sound like he was destined to go into the hall because of that saves total. lee smith didn't get it but he did. i don't think that'll happen again with any predictability
― qualx, Tuesday, 20 June 2017 02:27 (seven years ago) link
We see that differently, Kevin. I think Rivera hurts Hoffman, not helps him. If there's no Rivera, Hoffman sails in--he'd be #1 on the save list by 100+, with what were once good rate stats for a closer. Rivera raised the bar so high, especially with regards to post-season, that Hoffman will maybe get close to 80%, and then, I believe, that door closes for a decade.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 20 June 2017 02:35 (seven years ago) link
Rivera should get in without a doubt of course, a 56.6 war as a reliever is remarkable. more than double Hoffman's too.
― nomar, Tuesday, 20 June 2017 02:38 (seven years ago) link
don't let kev hear you talking like that he'll hit you with his patented "relievers are just failed starters" left hook
― qualx, Tuesday, 20 June 2017 02:40 (seven years ago) link
doin this in June huh
― Supercreditor (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 20 June 2017 02:42 (seven years ago) link
Felix, Verlander, and Sabathia are all scrambled up right now. The best of them, Felix, may fall short because of health (unless it's a mid-career blip); the least impressive, CC, may be back in the picture after he looked dead. Verlander, who knows.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 20 June 2017 02:49 (seven years ago) link
any of them could squeak their way to 3000 if that means anything anymore
still hopeful felix will some day learn how to pitch while old and have a good 30s
― qualx, Tuesday, 20 June 2017 02:56 (seven years ago) link
verlander seems to have the best shot of the three
― k3vin k., Tuesday, 20 June 2017 03:01 (seven years ago) link
Halladay and Vlad were inducted into the Canadian Baseball HOF today. Hard to think of two more likeable guys from the recent past.
http://www.torontosun.com/2017/06/24/halladay-guerrero-headline-2017-canadian-baseball-hall-of-fame-inductees-3?select_sec_photo=4
― clemenza, Sunday, 25 June 2017 04:00 (seven years ago) link
Had lunch with a friend today who left teaching for real estate--wanted some advice on selling a couple of years from now. He's a baseball fan, so we got talking about Scherzer, Kershaw, and Sale. I mentioned that if Scherzer wins the Cy this year, he's pretty much a lock for the HOF (an intuitive statement--didn't check into it until later). Anyway, before long, he's offering me a bet: $25, and I give him 4-1 odds, that Scherzer doesn't make the HOF even with a third Cy Young.
I knew it was a sucker's bet--giving, instead of getting, odds on virtually any 32-year-old, especially a pitcher, is crazy. But we kicked it around--I offered 3-1, or 2-1 without the third Cy provision, and eventually (I owed him a favour for something else) I took the bet at $40, 2.5-1, with or without the Cy.
So I'm no longer a baseball fan. I will be following Max Scherzer exclusively from here on in.
― clemenza, Thursday, 13 July 2017 01:21 (seven years ago) link
(I looked into it when I got home, and indeed--assuming Kershaw's in, and ignoring Clemens--a third Cy is an HOF lock. Works with the MVP, too, counting Pujols and ignoring Bonds/A-Rod. There are four pitchers and three position players who won twice and fell short.)
― clemenza, Thursday, 13 July 2017 01:24 (seven years ago) link
There's part of me, too, who thinks they'll never elect anyone who looks like a Hanna-Barbera character come to life, but I'm hoping the writers will overlook that.
― clemenza, Thursday, 13 July 2017 01:31 (seven years ago) link
an HOF
― qualx, Thursday, 13 July 2017 02:35 (seven years ago) link
new poll when you read "HOF" do you see the actual letters or do you think "hall of fame"
― qualx, Thursday, 13 July 2017 02:36 (seven years ago) link
Scherzer's been my favorite player outside of the Giants for a while now.
― Van Horn Street, Thursday, 13 July 2017 03:38 (seven years ago) link
"An HOF"...Interesting; as I'm typing, I'm composing in my mind, and I realize I'm thinking of the letters rather than their meaning.
I've figured out that five more years (at least) of Scherzer plus the 10-year voting window means I'll be dead and never have to pay off anyway. I'm in good shape, so to speak.
― clemenza, Thursday, 13 July 2017 04:22 (seven years ago) link
The one-and-dones vs. the anti-one-and-dones:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hall-of-fame-careers-that-cooperstown-never-gave-the-time-of-day/
The writer went straight by JAWS; personally, I'd take one-and-done Delgado over Olerud.
― clemenza, Thursday, 27 July 2017 03:10 (seven years ago) link
clemenza you might be interested in the new book by jay jaffe, "the cooperstown casebook". there was a long excerpt of chapter 6 ("the war on WAR") on fangraphs the other day:
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-cooperstown-casebook-excerpt-the-war-on-war/
― Karl Malone, Thursday, 27 July 2017 03:16 (seven years ago) link
love how the lowest likelihood HOF catcher still had an 80% chance
almost like a lot more catchers belong hmmmmmmmmm
― qualx, Thursday, 27 July 2017 03:22 (seven years ago) link
that 538 article mentioned ron santo, so i took a quick look at his stats again. i knew he was underrated, but i didn't realize how good he really was. cherrypicking the years, obviously, but from 1964-67 he led the majors in fWAR (34.3), which is pretty amazing. he even edges out willie mays, who put up two 10+ WAR seasons during that stretch.
― Karl Malone, Thursday, 27 July 2017 03:34 (seven years ago) link
I knew about the Jaffe book, thanks--I noticed a link to it on Baseball Reference a few weeks ago. Will order it for sure.
It's interesting to compare Santo and Robinson side-by-side through the '60s. Except for the fact that Santo came up in '60 and didn't play the full season, they hardly missed a game between them all decade. Per 162 games:
Santo - 82 R, 94 RBI, 55 XBH, 25 HR, 77 BB, 90 K, .281/.366/.478, 131 OPS+Brooks - 79 R, 84 RBI, 54 XBH, 19 HR, 48 BB, 57 K, .278/.329/.434, 115 OPS+
Offensively, I can see why they were probably thought of as comparable then--no one cared about walks, and that's where Santo's big advantage is. HR, too, masked a little bit by more doubles from Robinson. I don't think anybody took anything away from Santo for hitting in Wrigley, but I don't know.
Defensively, I remember Robinson in the '70 Series, first one I ever watched, no recollection of Santo. Santo's dWAR numbers through the '60s are very good, Robinson's excellent.
Trying to figure out why Santo was so underrated...I guess it comes down to team success (two World Series vs. perennial doormat), no regard for Santo getting on base so much more, and missing, for whatever reason, that he was a great fielder too. And then, in '70, Robinson's mystique doubled.
― clemenza, Thursday, 27 July 2017 12:58 (seven years ago) link
Besides those reasons, he was a third baseman (arguably the most underrated position based on the number of HOF'ers at that position) and his best years were in a pitching dominated era.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Thursday, 27 July 2017 13:20 (seven years ago) link
In general, for sure--I'm trying to figure out why Brooks Robinson was so celebrated and Santo wasn't. (James was a very early advocate.)
― clemenza, Thursday, 27 July 2017 13:21 (seven years ago) link
Then it's got to be team success above all else. Although I think that many players who peaked in the 60's are underrated, even HOFers like Yaz (36th all time in WAR) and Willie McCovey (he had some ungodly offensive years in the late 60's).
The excerpt from Jaffe's book on Fangraphs came off as dry and technical (exactly fitting the stereotype of a book about the HOF written by a stats nerd) but I'll probably buy it too ...
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Thursday, 27 July 2017 13:55 (seven years ago) link
i have always missed this particular context for Tim Raines' rookie season:
Raines was best known for his blazing speed. He won the stolen base title in each of his first four seasons, swiping a then-rookie record 71 bases in 88 games during the strike-shortened 1981 season.
O_O
― nomar, Sunday, 30 July 2017 19:30 (seven years ago) link
best part of the ceremony was when pudge flipped out and revolted
https://static01.nyt.com/images/2017/07/31/sports/31HALLweb3/31HALLweb3-master675.jpg
― Karl Malone, Monday, 31 July 2017 02:26 (seven years ago) link
#VoteBonds#VoteClemens https://t.co/SNy4KDZqsa— keithlaw (@keithlaw) July 30, 2017
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Monday, 31 July 2017 11:48 (seven years ago) link
My God, Selig invoking Giamatti is like the king mourning the meddlesome priest!— Richard M. Nixon (@dick_nixon) July 30, 2017
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Monday, 31 July 2017 13:55 (seven years ago) link
Not that I disagree with the premise of this piece--I think Posey will go into the HOF too--but I don't know how the writer manages not to mention Joe Mauer anywhere; their careers are similar in so many ways up to the age of 30.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/buster-posey-has-quietly-become-a-lock-for-cooperstown/
― clemenza, Sunday, 20 August 2017 14:48 (seven years ago) link
yeah not sure he's reached the "lock" stage yet. let's see him be productive for a few years into his thirties
― k3vin k., Sunday, 20 August 2017 16:20 (seven years ago) link
Finished Jay Jaffe's HOF book today. It's good--because he's a good writer, and because of the way it's formatted, not because the arguments are necessarily eye-opening (advocacy for Grich, Edgar, Mussina, Ted Simmons, etc.). I think it gets harder and harder to surprise on that front, as such reevaluations pass more and more into conventional wisdom. Which is good; I'm just contrasting that with the early Abstracts, when the field was wide open and suggesting that Gene Tenace was a better hitter than Steve Garvey was like, I don't know, hearing the Ramones for the first time. After a few introductory chapters Jaffe goes position by position, leading off with a close case study of one or two players he'd like to see go in, and then breaking down a bunch more into "The Elite" (a word that really ought to banished at this point), "The Rank and File" (sounds pejorative but it's not--basically a deserving, mid-level Hall of Famer), "The Basement" (HOF'ers who shouldn't be), and "Further Consideration" (neglected old guys, PED casualties, etc.--big Andrew Sarris fan). I wouldn't say it's as good as James's HOF book, The Politics of Glory, but it's probably more comprehensive (been a while since I read the James book). He pointedly takes James to task a couple of times, over things he wrote about Dick Allen and Simmons. Some strange and funny 19th-century stuff, as always. I think the only under-30 players who sneak into the book are Trout and Kershaw; I might have included two or three more (Altuve or Kimbrel, maybe, who are both doing well on the needs-to-be-updated HOF Monitor).
― clemenza, Saturday, 30 September 2017 16:40 (six years ago) link
Garvey, John, Mattingly, Miller, Morris, Murphy, Parker, Simmons, Tiant & Trammell comprise Modern Baseball ballot: https://t.co/tIEYqB7pnn pic.twitter.com/WnF0pnPfpd— Baseball Hall ⚾ (@baseballhall) November 6, 2017
main complaints i see are 'whittaker was better than most of these guys'
marvin miller had better get in tho
― mookieproof, Monday, 6 November 2017 19:31 (six years ago) link
CHRIST
― Andy K, Monday, 6 November 2017 22:04 (six years ago) link
Whitaker not being on the ballot isn't a mistake, it's a blunder so bad that it eviscerates any claim to expertise of the people who made it— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) November 6, 2017
― mookieproof, Monday, 6 November 2017 22:29 (six years ago) link
yeah, Steve Garvey in particular looks emptier than ever
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Monday, 6 November 2017 22:31 (six years ago) link
i just went down a rabbit hole of MVP voting, looking at A-Tram's second place finish to George Bell in 1987. Did you guys know that Jeff Reardon finished 11th in the MVP voting that year thanks to a sparkling 4.48 ERA and 31 clutch saves?
― omar little, Monday, 6 November 2017 22:40 (six years ago) link