Called strikes-Swinging strikes-Foul balls-In play strikes:Verlander 25-25-25-18
― mookieproof, Saturday, 14 October 2017 23:00 (six years ago) link
fuck him up tuves
― qualx, Saturday, 14 October 2017 23:06 (six years ago) link
why isn't he in the HOF yet idgi
― qualx, Saturday, 14 October 2017 23:11 (six years ago) link
terrible send!
― mookieproof, Saturday, 14 October 2017 23:11 (six years ago) link
gotta love chapman shitting the bed (now that he isn't a a cub)
― na (NA), Saturday, 14 October 2017 23:12 (six years ago) link
Great ending!
― Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Saturday, 14 October 2017 23:14 (six years ago) link
yeah that was a bad send, sanchez absolutely has to make that play. inexcusable
― k3vin k., Saturday, 14 October 2017 23:20 (six years ago) link
Sending Altuve was a bit insane but considering the game situation it's a good gamble even if he makes it about 20% of the time (I'm sure the usual sites will calculate this).
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Saturday, 14 October 2017 23:23 (six years ago) link
that's the legend of future hall of famer jose altuve
did you notice how he quickly swooped dusty baker's small child out of the way before completing his slide
― qualx, Saturday, 14 October 2017 23:23 (six years ago) link
Not pictured: José Altuve #ALCS pic.twitter.com/TOKLY6kacD— The Ringer (@ringer) October 14, 2017
― rip van wanko, Saturday, 14 October 2017 23:32 (six years ago) link
AND he craned his neck to look at the damn ball after he rounded the bag.
― Andy K, Saturday, 14 October 2017 23:34 (six years ago) link
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Saturday, October 14, 2017 7:23 PM (twelve minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
yeah i would be very interested in seeing the math for this, if you come across a breakdown please link
― k3vin k., Saturday, 14 October 2017 23:37 (six years ago) link
it's a good gamble even if he makes it about 20% of the time
Is it? Runner on 3rd with 1 out in a tie game is a pretty good situation, isn't it?
― Guayaquil (eephus!), Saturday, 14 October 2017 23:38 (six years ago) link
OK, I did a quick calculation using the run expectation data here and came up with 18 percent. That's assuming that each team has equal chances of winning if it goes to extras (which isn't really true -- the home team would have a slight advantage) and not taking into account the pitchers (e.g. the difficulty of scoring off Chapman in the 9th compared to what the run expectation table would tell you).
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Saturday, 14 October 2017 23:58 (six years ago) link
i'm not sure how you got that from that table? but then again, i'm not sure what was meant by "it's a good gamble even if he makes it about 20% of the time" either, heh
that table does show, though, that the probability of scoring at least one run when runners are at second and third with one out is about 69%, nice. so if altuve would have held up at third, as he should have, they still would have had a 69% nice chance of scoring and winning the game.
― Karl Malone, Sunday, 15 October 2017 00:05 (six years ago) link
After visiting Theodore Roosevelt's birthplace site, I saw the last 2 innings at a gay sports bar and yelled quite loudly at the end, annoying the Stankee rooters.
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Sunday, 15 October 2017 00:24 (six years ago) link
I see now that I read a number wrong from that table. But you're right, with x23 and one out there's a 69% chance of winning the game in the ninth, and a 31% chance that the game goes to extras (and I gave them a 50% chance of winning in extras). With a similar calculation for sending the runner (if he makes it you win, if he doesn't you have x2x and two outs and can win in the ninth or in extras) and now the calculation gives 59%! So yeah, it's a terrible gamble because you have to be safe more than 59% of the time for it to pay off.
If there had been two outs, it's a simpler calculation and the break even point is 28%.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Sunday, 15 October 2017 00:28 (six years ago) link
lol jesus, i knew the outcome before i watched the final play but i thought while seeing it, "oh dammit they got him..."
― nomar, Sunday, 15 October 2017 01:06 (six years ago) link
i'd be curious to see the play from a different angle, maybe sanchez was a little bit far up and altuve could have sneaked past him anyway?
― nomar, Sunday, 15 October 2017 01:07 (six years ago) link
he's saying that statistically there is some inflection point where the risk of giving up an out by being thrown out is outweighed by the potential benefit of scoring immediately
― k3vin k., Sunday, 15 October 2017 01:10 (six years ago) link
― nomar, Saturday, October 14, 2017 9:07 PM (two minutes ago)
ha no he'd have to have jumped over him i think, he was beat by so much
― k3vin k., Sunday, 15 October 2017 01:11 (six years ago) link
If Sanchez caught it cleay he’d have enough time to get an early start on taxes before Altuve arrives. And Sanchez’s tax situation is complicated
― Karl Malone, Sunday, 15 October 2017 01:12 (six years ago) link
cleanly
on live view i didnt see Sanchez's drop and thought Altuve had eluded the tag
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Sunday, 15 October 2017 01:12 (six years ago) link
yeah i just re-watched it, Sanchez could have caught the ball, turned around, sucker-punched Gonzalez, served a suspension, then returned in time to tag him.
― nomar, Sunday, 15 October 2017 01:14 (six years ago) link
Didn't take long for Posnanski to get his complete game.
― timellison, Sunday, 15 October 2017 05:41 (six years ago) link
The Verlander Game: Astros' New Ace Delivers Dominance While Embracing Team's Analytical Approach (Verducci)
https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/10/15/justin-verlander-astros-yankees-alcs
One day three years ago, in the middle of a down year in which he would post a 4.54 ERA for the Tigers, Verlander was called into the office of manager Brad Ausmus.“I don’t see you throwing with conviction behind your pitches,” Ausmus said.A surprised Verlander snapped back at him.“I guarantee you can pick any pitch that I’ve thrown and I can tell you exactly what I was trying to do with it,” Verlander said.The two men began to talk, and as they did, Ausmus figured out what truly was missing in his ace’s game: Verlander still was relying only on his instincts and observations to get people out, when an entire world of data was out there to help him. The conversation opened Verlander’s eyes and mind. He began seeking out pitch data, keeping his own hand-written statistics and notes, and visiting a pitching guru of modern data-based mechanics to learn about spin rates, release points and arm health.When the Tigers traded Verlander to Houston Aug. 31, another world opened for Verlander. The Astros are one of the most forward-thinking, resourceful teams when it comes to analytics, and Verlander not only embraced it all, he also asked for more. The joke among the quants in the organization was that Verlander was the first guy to actually ask for more than the reams of information they already were crunching.
“I don’t see you throwing with conviction behind your pitches,” Ausmus said.
A surprised Verlander snapped back at him.
“I guarantee you can pick any pitch that I’ve thrown and I can tell you exactly what I was trying to do with it,” Verlander said.
The two men began to talk, and as they did, Ausmus figured out what truly was missing in his ace’s game: Verlander still was relying only on his instincts and observations to get people out, when an entire world of data was out there to help him. The conversation opened Verlander’s eyes and mind. He began seeking out pitch data, keeping his own hand-written statistics and notes, and visiting a pitching guru of modern data-based mechanics to learn about spin rates, release points and arm health.
When the Tigers traded Verlander to Houston Aug. 31, another world opened for Verlander. The Astros are one of the most forward-thinking, resourceful teams when it comes to analytics, and Verlander not only embraced it all, he also asked for more. The joke among the quants in the organization was that Verlander was the first guy to actually ask for more than the reams of information they already were crunching.
― Andy K, Sunday, 15 October 2017 17:16 (six years ago) link
pic.twitter.com/oDONCsDFat— Tangotiger (@tangotiger) October 15, 2017
― k3vin k., Sunday, 15 October 2017 19:11 (six years ago) link
Hey, I actually got it right! I see now that I didn't need to take in to account what would have happened in extra innings (irrelevant when considering this particular play, because the game ends if he scores, so you don't need to consider anything that would happen afterward).
The true break even point is certainly lower, because the chances of scoring a run off Chapman is lower than what's given in the standard table (much higher risk of a strikeout). So the break even point is probably between 40-50%, which is still a bad send.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Sunday, 15 October 2017 22:10 (six years ago) link
tom uses comic sans nice
― qualx, Sunday, 15 October 2017 22:33 (six years ago) link
https://i.imgur.com/PSJkBhy.jpg
judge currently at 19 K in 37 PA
― mookieproof, Monday, 16 October 2017 18:52 (six years ago) link
Pos pointed out that Judge is one short of the Yankees all-time record for 3K postseason games. The current record holder is Derek Jeter with 6.
― frogbs, Monday, 16 October 2017 18:59 (six years ago) link
he was 1-for-20 with four walks and 16 strikeouts in the five games against cleveland, which is frankly incredible
― mookieproof, Monday, 16 October 2017 19:02 (six years ago) link
I'm sure it was the pitching, but NY just seems to swing at balls and take strikes
― calstars, Monday, 16 October 2017 19:05 (six years ago) link
https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2017/10/16/16483202/aaron-judge-new-york-yankees-struggles-alcs
― mookieproof, Monday, 16 October 2017 21:31 (six years ago) link
i just watched this and wow that was some big-boy pitching
― illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Monday, 16 October 2017 21:45 (six years ago) link
which is frankly incredible
I was going to post about that right after the series ended, calling it embarrassing, but Judge is a good guy, and everybody likes him, and he had an historic season, so I didn't think that would have gone over so well.
― clemenza, Monday, 16 October 2017 21:45 (six years ago) link
yeah I'm rooting for him pretty hard but I'd be surprised if he has a great career - his plate approach just seems so exploitable to me. hopefully he'll adjust some in the offseason.
― frogbs, Monday, 16 October 2017 21:50 (six years ago) link
they don't make commemorative bats for disappointments
― qualx, Monday, 16 October 2017 22:07 (six years ago) link
I guess he's more of a bobble bead kind of player
― calstars, Monday, 16 October 2017 22:29 (six years ago) link
http://www.vintagecardprices.com/pics/1814/168387.jpg
― illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Tuesday, 17 October 2017 00:07 (six years ago) link
20 strikeouts for Judge
― Karl Malone, Tuesday, 17 October 2017 00:24 (six years ago) link
it appears he has no idea what he's doing at the plate
― calstars, Tuesday, 17 October 2017 00:25 (six years ago) link
good fundies there Didi
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 17 October 2017 00:26 (six years ago) link
Evan Gattis very Merlin Olsen
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 17 October 2017 00:33 (six years ago) link
good eye, Grizzly
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 17 October 2017 00:35 (six years ago) link
bronx bunters!
― k3vin k., Tuesday, 17 October 2017 00:44 (six years ago) link
First bludd
― calstars, Tuesday, 17 October 2017 00:48 (six years ago) link
wind-aided cheapass crap
(it's finally autumnish in NY tonight)
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 17 October 2017 00:49 (six years ago) link
i'd like to visit this Replay Fortress on 19th Street
they take forfuckingever
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 17 October 2017 00:51 (six years ago) link
my guess is altuve and JV could be co-MVPs
― Michael F Gill
That would have been my pick too. I know they did that for the '81 Dodgers in the World Series (three guys, I think)--maybe they don't do it for the LCS.
― clemenza, Monday, 23 October 2017 16:59 (six years ago) link