i'm guessing Molina gets in, and I do suspect Mauer will also. Simmons seems like he'll eventually make it via the vets. speaking of Posey, i figure his three rings and maybe someday reaching a couple of nice round numbers in the counting stats will eventually get him there.
― omar little, Thursday, 19 September 2019 17:13 (four years ago) link
Something published just last month:
http://www.cooperstowncred.com/will-ted-simmons-ever-make-hall-fame/
1971-1980 BA HR RBI H 2B OBP SLG OPS+ oWARBench .263 269 933 1309 241 .348 .479 130 46.0Simmons .301 169 902 1631 324 .367 .466 131 45.3
I realize there's a big advantage to Bench defensively (although Simmons' defense was supposedly much better than the general view at the time), but I don't think that comparison is cherry-picking; both guys are thought of primarily as '70s players.
― clemenza, Thursday, 19 September 2019 17:16 (four years ago) link
James actually just started a new round of historical rankings a few days ago (why, I'm not sure). His 25 greatest catchers:
http://phildellio.tripod.com/catchers.jpg
― clemenza, Thursday, 19 September 2019 17:45 (four years ago) link
Don't ask me to explain the rankings. One note: players are given credit for their entire careers (i.e., not just the games/years as a catcher).
― clemenza, Thursday, 19 September 2019 17:46 (four years ago) link
i always forget about Jorge Posada for some reason.
― omar little, Thursday, 19 September 2019 17:47 (four years ago) link
gene tenace definitely deserves some love. .388 career OBP! (also born about five miles from where i grew up)
― mookieproof, Thursday, 19 September 2019 17:52 (four years ago) link
Berra drew MVP votes 15 consecutive years (with a 7-year Top-4 streak in the middle). Whatever you think of MVP voting, and even if there was some starstruck NY support towards the end, that's pretty damn impressive.
― clemenza, Thursday, 19 September 2019 17:58 (four years ago) link
kind of stunning to see what ted williams hit in the three years yogi won mvp
did yogi win because of his defense or the fact that his team was better
― mookieproof, Thursday, 19 September 2019 18:11 (four years ago) link
I won't even bother comparing: Williams, Mays, Bonds...Trout--they all lost MVPs to the we-can't-give-it-to-him-every-year syndrome.
― clemenza, Thursday, 19 September 2019 18:25 (four years ago) link
I think Arrieta might be Mike Scott or somebody like that--long way away, I'd say.
good guess there, clem -- as a Cubs fan i was glad to have Jake there for his peak but i always kinda worried/suspected he would turn into a pumpkin eventually.
― omar little, Thursday, 19 September 2019 18:27 (four years ago) link
it's funny abt Bonds because for awhile there they did give it to him every year, but only because he was so undeniable. it overlapped w/Randy Johnson getting the Cy four years in a row, too.
― omar little, Thursday, 19 September 2019 18:29 (four years ago) link
(xpost) Thanks--but right after a couple of terrible guesses: "Not that big on Greinke yet. 40% of his career WAR was compiled in two seasons; other than that, one season a little over 5.0. See very little chance for Lester."
― clemenza, Thursday, 19 September 2019 18:31 (four years ago) link
i think verlaner's 3000th K came on a swinging strike in the dirt kole calhoun ended up beating to first base?
― Sally Jessy (Karl Malone), Sunday, 29 September 2019 04:35 (four years ago) link
http://blogs.fangraphs.com/brian-mccanns-great-career-and-fascinating-hall-of-fame-case/
Haven't read it, but, again, you're into Sundberg/Boone/McCarver territory again. I just don't see it.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 15 October 2019 18:10 (four years ago) link
Mccann doesn’t deserve to be in the hof because we don’t need to celebrate any more redasses
― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Tuesday, 15 October 2019 18:14 (four years ago) link
McCarver doesn't turn up on McCaan's BR comps, but they're relatively close in WAR:
McCaan - 31.8 for his career, 7.6 of that for defenseMcCarver - 28.3 for his career, 6.4 of that for defense
They both played in the postseason alot: 143 PA for McCaan, 103 for McCarver. (McCarver's postseason presence greater in the context of era.) McCaan drew MVP support twice, McCarver once--but McCarver finished second. They both have names that begin with McC.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 15 October 2019 18:36 (four years ago) link
don't think elite framing was a McCarver skill
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 15 October 2019 18:37 (four years ago) link
mccann never won a gold glove, which is the true arbiter of defense
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 15 October 2019 18:55 (four years ago) link
I'm a little slow on statistical shifts, so I'm not sure if I want to start inducting catchers into the HOF whose biggest selling point is pitch-framing. Putting that aside, though, if McCarver had been great at that too, would analysts know? Is that extracted from traditional stats?
― clemenza, Tuesday, 15 October 2019 19:08 (four years ago) link
no, we'd need Statcast-type data from that era
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 15 October 2019 19:17 (four years ago) link
(afaik)
Tim being 2nd in MVP voting is craaazy tho, even tho he had his best year by far in '67
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 15 October 2019 19:18 (four years ago) link
mccann, yadi, russell martin and kurt suzuki all got massive boosts in defensive fWAR in 2008 (when the framing metrics kicked in). suzuki immediately plummeted the following season (tbf, 2008 was also his best CS% season). martin's went down 50% in 2009. mccann and yadi remained high for a few years, then spent a few years 50% lower, and now are still a bit above average.
framing is obviously only one component of a catcher's defensive value, but it also seems like one that should neither vary much from year to year nor fade dramatically with age. (maybe i'm wrong there?)
my other complaint is that WAR is supposed to enable us to compare players across eras/ballparks/offensive climates/etc -- and if framing is this huge a factor, we cannot retcon the catchers of the past because we don't have the data. there are simply catchers before 2008 and catchers after 2008, and it should be clearly stated that they are not comparable.
according to fWAR, mccann was 0.1 win less valuable in 2008 than albert pujols, who hit .357/.462/.653. that is possible, but it's not obvious why.
and fwiw, we know that the clubs have more advanced data than is publicly available, and good framing catchers do not seem especially valued in the market -- at least not enough to pay a premium for it
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 15 October 2019 20:08 (four years ago) link
(xpost) Both McCarver and winner Cepeda were well behind Aaron/Santo/Clemente in WAR. That was just before I started watching baseball...The only thing I know is that there was a mystique attached to those Cardinals teams, partly tied in with racial issues of the day. Hard to gauge that stuff through the fog of time. The Cardinals dominated MVP voting that year: 7 of the top 17 vote-getters.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 15 October 2019 20:14 (four years ago) link
I was thinking Lance Parrish might be a good analog for McCann. The list on Baseball Reference looks about right.
Brian McCann Similar Batters
Jorge Posada (894.9) Lance Parrish (891.0) Bill Freehan (879.3) Javy Lopez (868.9) Benito Santiago (860.5) Jason Varitek (847.9) Russell Martin (839.7) Ernie Lombardi (831.1) * Darrell Porter (830.2) Sherm Lollar (827.8)
― earlnash, Tuesday, 15 October 2019 23:19 (four years ago) link
― mookieproof, Tuesday, October 15, 2019 4:08 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink
There is two things I want to mention: 1, I think we nerds ignore how much salaries are determined by marketability rather than advanced metrics. 2, undervaluing by ownership might just be more sinister than discussions about skill evaluations.
Absolutely agree that it is getting frustrating WAR allows for less and less catchers across different eras/ballparks/offensive factors etc.
― Van Horn Street, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 15:21 (four years ago) link
As for '67-68 Cardinals' "mystique"... the reason they dominated MVP voting is that the BBWAA seemed even lazier when there was a 10-team single pennant race. ie 1) pennant winner 2) basic counting stats 3) "intangibles" that could be made up on the spot. Ballot done.
While they were one of the more integrated teams to win at that point, I find the '50s Dodgers and '70s Pirates more compelling on that score.
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 16 October 2019 15:43 (four years ago) link
Salaries are also determined by star power (sells merch/seats) which is why teams tend to overpay for over-the-hill talent.
I'll keep saying it until you guys ban me: defensive WAR is fool's gold. It pains me how much the BBWAA have relied/will rely on such a flawed metric for end of year (and HOF!) votes.
― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Wednesday, 16 October 2019 15:49 (four years ago) link
speaking of banning, who are the ILB mod(s)? just the dearly departed steve shasta?
― mookieproof, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 15:54 (four years ago) link
― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Wednesday, October 16, 2019 11:49 AM (nine minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink
Do you mean that we will never figure out good metrics for defensive evaluation or that right now those evaluations are inadequate?
― Van Horn Street, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 15:59 (four years ago) link
i don't think defensive WAR is a bedrock stat for the writers; it is a factor among many in which they judge a player's defense
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 16 October 2019 16:15 (four years ago) link
That McCann/Pujols '08 fWAR thing above is...
― timellison, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 22:43 (four years ago) link
I don’t really trust any of the defensive catching metrics
― k3vin k., Wednesday, 16 October 2019 22:55 (four years ago) link
shouting at guys who jog to first on pop-ups counts as an extra out, which fWAR accounts for.
― omar little, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 23:14 (four years ago) link
The '64-'68 Cardinals had mystique--deserved or otherwise, that's just a fact. I was aware of that as a young fan in the early '70s, having read Roger Angell's accounts of the three World Series they were in. The Dodgers of the '50s had more, sure--tied in with a certain book--but the Cardinals had their own.
http://media1.fdncms.com/riverfronttimes/imager/u/blog/2573864/si_comparison_covers.jpg?cb=1454773020
― clemenza, Thursday, 17 October 2019 00:38 (four years ago) link
so, cc sabathia
― It is my great honor to post on this messageboard! (Karl Malone), Friday, 18 October 2019 04:30 (four years ago) link
Epic career, but no. He had a Cy Young and made it to 3,000 Ks - best thing he had going for him was spending 10 years on the Yankees. Got him a lot of wins and post season games. But he never dominated or lead in much else aside from just pitching a lot. If he’d spent the last 10 years on the Twins, I don’t think he would be getting the same hof attention.
― FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Friday, 18 October 2019 04:50 (four years ago) link
One man's "mystique" is another's "lotta press."
CC fairly close to Don Sutton's BWAR, while pitching a third less innings.
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Friday, 18 October 2019 10:06 (four years ago) link
close comp to Drysdale too
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Friday, 18 October 2019 11:47 (four years ago) link
Are you saying the Cardinals didn't have it or that it doesn't exist at all? A lot of press could just as easily explain Babe Ruth or Michael Jordan.
Obviously, Sutton's in for the 300 wins--if he'd fallen short, he'd probably be out there with Tommy John and Jim Kaat. (Sabermetrics rescued Bert Blyleven; I doubt that would have happened with Sutton, who's ahead of John in WAR but still short of 70.0.) Maybe, if WAR sticks around, a widely recognized benchmark will be established--70 seems to be the number right now for Jaffe-types. Sabathia's at 62.5, right where Kaat is. I'm on the fence with CC, and I think he'll be one of those guys who starts in the 40-50% range, and then, who knows.
― clemenza, Friday, 18 October 2019 12:06 (four years ago) link
Drysdale's in for...mystique!
― clemenza, Friday, 18 October 2019 12:07 (four years ago) link
Don’t forget to the fun name factor (1.01x)
― It is my great honor to post on this messageboard! (Karl Malone), Friday, 18 October 2019 13:17 (four years ago) link
Don’t forget to add all the words to your sentences, either
― It is my great honor to post on this messageboard! (Karl Malone), Friday, 18 October 2019 13:18 (four years ago) link
I don't know what Mystique (TM) *is*, other than it didn't get its Yankees tickets this week.
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Friday, 18 October 2019 14:48 (four years ago) link
i keep going back and forth on CC, bc he did have a decent string of peak seasons but at the same time he does really seem sometimes like he's closer to a David Wells type than a Mike Mussina type, when looking at his entire career.
― omar little, Friday, 18 October 2019 17:39 (four years ago) link
def not quite in Mussina's tier, careerwise
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Friday, 18 October 2019 17:47 (four years ago) link
i don't want to mutter "compiler" but if we discuss peak there are a lot of pitchers out there who were much better and didn't last long enough at a diminished level to build up the career totals. Johan and Felix, to name a couple.
― omar little, Friday, 18 October 2019 17:58 (four years ago) link
agnostic on his induction, but i kinda believe all hall of famers should have had a transcendent period during which they were, however fleetingly, the best in the game. and for cc, that second half with the brewers in 2008 counts.
― mookieproof, Friday, 18 October 2019 18:03 (four years ago) link
CC was arguably not even the best lefty Cy Young winner Cleveland had during the '00s.
i thought for awhile he was going to wind up similar to Verlander, in that both had these good early indoctrination periods where they mastered their inherent talents before they peaked and won the Cy, followed by a depressing early decline, but Verlander's was just a blip on the radar and a bit of a mirage. CC wound up just having this very good middle period and a decline marked by occasional fine performances and outright terrible ones.
― omar little, Friday, 18 October 2019 18:12 (four years ago) link
for me i guess the closest comparison is maybe Pettitte? a really fine and occasionally great pitcher who seems just outside HOF-worthy (though CC was better than Pettitte in terms of a consistent peak).
― omar little, Friday, 18 October 2019 18:43 (four years ago) link
agnostic on his induction, but i kinda believe all hall of famers should have had a transcendent period during which they were, however fleetingly, the best in the game
Mostly agree with this, except 1) I think you can play/pitch at a slightly lower level if you do it long enough (something like Palmeiro, I guess), and 2) for me, Sabathia's transcendent period is too fleeting--I'd want two or three seasons where you're viewed as one of the best (half-dozen?) in the game.
― clemenza, Friday, 18 October 2019 19:26 (four years ago) link