Obviously, there was way too much of that kind of speculation 20 years ago; I think the pendulum has maybe swung too far in the opposite direction. It wouldn't be fair to say that analytics dismisses such ephemera altogether (Posnanski himself is, more than not, a full-fledged analytic writer). But there's a built-in skepticism (which is good) that I think is so entrenched, things that can't be definitively quantified are brushed aside. "If Kershaw is pressing in this one start, why isn't he pressing in this other one?" Both things can be true.
― clemenza, Saturday, 26 October 2019 19:26 (four years ago) link
i wonder how many of the astros players even realized it was their first IBB of the year, let alone were shaken by it
― mookieproof, Saturday, 26 October 2019 19:32 (four years ago) link
Players talk about what they're thinking when they are at bat all the time. (In fact, that's always an interview question - "Take me through that at-bat...") I would imagine every single player has some perception of how successful they are when they're thinking this or thinking that, or how successful they are when they're not thinking as much, etc.
― timellison, Saturday, 26 October 2019 19:33 (four years ago) link
Pitchers too.
― timellison, Saturday, 26 October 2019 19:34 (four years ago) link
'oh no, the nats brought corbin out of the bullpen for the first time all year, their mojo is gone'
― mookieproof, Saturday, 26 October 2019 19:34 (four years ago) link
Body and brain also feel different every single day. And every hitter has a distinct relationship with every opposing pitcher and vice versa, so while you might not want to use BvP stats to make certain decisions, why in the world would you not want to know that your batter is 1-20 lifetime against some pitcher?
― timellison, Saturday, 26 October 2019 19:36 (four years ago) link
I don't think the Astros were shaken by it either...I think Posnanski is reaching. But 1) I like that he thinks that way, and 2) I'd be willing to bet almost all Astros were aware that they hadn't issued an IBB all year. It's been covered lots in the press, and it was clearly a team policy that must have been discussed openly at some point (or many points) in the season.
― clemenza, Saturday, 26 October 2019 19:45 (four years ago) link
They left absolutely no doubt that they were shaken by the Nationals’ mojo.
Yeah, I tune out when I read lines like this. Posnanski probably wants to take it all back now that the series is tied.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Sunday, 27 October 2019 07:52 (four years ago) link
So, here’s the plan on the Baseball 100 — right after the first of the year, I’m going to count down the 100 greatest baseball players in 100 days over at The Athletic. As you might remember, we have done the first 35 players or so already here — those essays will be edited and updated (and I believe there might be one or two changes based on recent events!). So the first month will be a bit of a repeat for many of you with a couple of added twists. But then we should have all 100 up more or less by Opening Day, plus a special Negro Leagues countdown in February. It’s going to be a lot of work, yes, but I’m really excited about it.
Never have I felt more compelled to use the words "I'll believe it when I see it." This thing started something like 23 years ago.
― clemenza, Monday, 11 November 2019 16:37 (four years ago) link
https://images.gr-assets.com/hostedimages/1417133315ra/12236351.gif
― omar little, Monday, 11 November 2019 16:39 (four years ago) link
OK, your challenge, should you choose to accept it, is to rank players in 30 "Who's better, who's best" questions to help with the New Baseball 100, starting in January at @TheAthleticMLB. I think it's fun. I also think it's hard. Have at it! https://t.co/zRn1LH4txC— Joe Posnanski (@JPosnanski) November 18, 2019
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 19 November 2019 15:40 (four years ago) link
these are hard! i'm doing it without looking anything up. for #1 i went with my heart:
miggyfrank thomasthomemurray
― Peaceful Warrior I Poser (Karl Malone), Tuesday, 19 November 2019 16:03 (four years ago) link
let's see, who do i want as my corner outfielder, manny ramirez or al simmons
― Peaceful Warrior I Poser (Karl Malone), Tuesday, 19 November 2019 16:09 (four years ago) link
it's difficult to imagine how prime manny would do in the early 1930s. seems like pretty much any modern conditioned player would be a star against 1930s competition. so instead, i'm going to imagine today's manny, wherever he is right now, playing in the 1930s
going with manny
― Peaceful Warrior I Poser (Karl Malone), Tuesday, 19 November 2019 16:11 (four years ago) link
looked at the first one and decided there's no way i can do this
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 19 November 2019 16:13 (four years ago) link
#13 is a doozy
eddie mathewschipper joneswade boggsadrian beltregeorge brett
that's the order i went with, but sheesh
― Peaceful Warrior I Poser (Karl Malone), Tuesday, 19 November 2019 16:32 (four years ago) link
clemenza you're gonna shit yr pants when you find this survey
― Peaceful Warrior I Poser (Karl Malone), Tuesday, 19 November 2019 18:56 (four years ago) link
rank:
yogi berrashoeless joe jacksonbob fellerrobinson canorafael palmeiro
― Peaceful Warrior I Poser (Karl Malone), Tuesday, 19 November 2019 18:57 (four years ago) link
I just moved and have limited internet access at the library until they get my connection fixed, but will look at that for sure, thanks.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 19 November 2019 21:33 (four years ago) link
I did it...Raced through it--you'd go insane trying to weigh each group carefully. That one towards the end that more or less had the eight greatest hitters was funny. If Mays turned up, I always ranked him #1 ahead of Ruth or anyone else. I don't think Jackie Robinson turned up once for some reason.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 20 November 2019 14:03 (four years ago) link
He's up to #8--almost finished, so mea culpa over my skepticism that he ever would.
(I only skim certain entries; waiting to read the whole thing in book form.)
― clemenza, Sunday, 29 March 2020 00:52 (four years ago) link
i haven't bought a baseball book in a while, but i'll be first in line
― Karl Malone, Sunday, 29 March 2020 00:59 (four years ago) link
When you finish that, read Posnanski's book on the '75 Reds--excellent.
― clemenza, Sunday, 29 March 2020 14:24 (four years ago) link
For anyone who doesn't have access, here's the list so far:
No. 100: Ichiro SuzukiNo. 99: Mike MussinaNo. 98: Carlos BeltránNo. 97: Roberto AlomarNo. 96: Larry WalkerNo. 95: Tony GwynnNo. 94: Roy CampanellaNo. 93: Ozzie SmithNo. 92: Bullet RoganNo. 91: Mariano RiveraNo. 90: Max ScherzerNo. 89: Mike PiazzaNo. 88: Curt SchillingNo. 87: Charlie GehringerNo. 86: Gary CarterNo. 85: Sadaharu OhNo. 84: Cool Papa BellNo. 83: Phil NiekroNo. 82: Kid NicholsNo. 81: Ferguson JenkinsNo. 80: Carlton FiskNo. 79: Derek JeterNo. 78: Clayton KershawNo. 77: Miguel CabreraNo. 76: Willie McCoveyNo. 75: Justin VerlanderNo. 74: Frank ThomasNo. 73: Brooks RobinsonNo. 72: Robin RobertsNo. 71: Bert BlylevenNo. 70: Sandy KoufaxNo. 69: Monte IrvinNo. 68: Gaylord PerryNo. 67: Hank GreenbergNo. 66: Robin YountNo. 65: Ernie BanksNo. 64: Johnny MizeNo. 63: Steve CarltonNo. 62: Smokey Joe WilliamsNo. 61: Arky VaughanNo. 60: Pete RoseNo. 59: Reggie JacksonNo. 58: Jeff BagwellNo. 57: Rod CarewNo. 56: Joe DiMaggioNo. 55: Bob FellerNo. 54: Chipper JonesNo. 53: Buck LeonardNo. 52: Adrián BeltréNo. 51: Al KalineNo. 50: Nolan RyanNo. 49: Warren SpahnNo. 48: Ken Griffey Jr.No. 47: Wade BoggsNo. 46: Eddie MathewsNo. 45: Bob GibsonNo. 44: Cal Ripken Jr.No. 43: Yogi BerraNo. 42: Jackie RobinsonNo. 41: Tom SeaverNo. 40: Roberto ClementeNo. 39: Nap LajoieNo. 38: Carl YastrzemskiNo. 37: Pedro MartínezNo. 36: Christy MathewsonNo. 35: George BrettNo. 34: Cy YoungNo. 33: Jimmie FoxxNo. 32: Mel OttNo. 31: Greg MadduxNo. 30: Johnny BenchNo. 29: Eddie CollinsNo. 28: Randy JohnsonNo. 27: Mike TroutNo. 26: Grover Cleveland AlexanderNo. 25: Pop LloydNo. 24: Rickey HendersonNo. 23: Albert PujolsNo. 22: Lefty GroveNo. 21: Joe MorganNo. 20: Frank RobinsonNo. 20 (tie): Mike SchmidtNo. 18: Tris SpeakerNo. 17: Rogers HornsbyNo. 16: Alex RodriguezNo. 15: Josh GibsonNo. 14: Lou GehrigNo. 13: Roger ClemensNo. 12: Honus WagnerNo. 11: Mickey MantleNo. 10: Satchel PaigeNo. 9: Stan MusialNo. 8: Ty Cobb
Which leaves Mays, Ruth, Bonds, Williams, Aaron, Walter Johnson, and someone else.
― clemenza, Sunday, 29 March 2020 20:17 (four years ago) link
I hope and predict Mays at #1.
― clemenza, Sunday, 29 March 2020 20:19 (four years ago) link
Probably said this already: Posnanski was very clear that the rankings aren't meant to be taken that seriously, or even in some cases whether or not someone made the list. He was more interested in stories and who was a conduit to good writing.
― clemenza, Sunday, 29 March 2020 20:28 (four years ago) link
The number one player of all time? you, the fan who makes it all possible.
― Karl Malone, Sunday, 29 March 2020 20:37 (four years ago) link
Or, if Posnanski needs medical assistance right now, Donald Trump.
― clemenza, Sunday, 29 March 2020 20:40 (four years ago) link
#1 will be JoePos. you have to be an idiot not to vote for yourself on election day
― ℺ ☽ ⋠ ⏎ (✖), Sunday, 29 March 2020 21:07 (four years ago) link
which player is missing, though? that is kind of a conundrum
― Karl Malone, Sunday, 29 March 2020 21:18 (four years ago) link
I assume that Buck Leonard and Josh Gibson already listed rule out a Negro League player.
― clemenza, Sunday, 29 March 2020 22:46 (four years ago) link
#7, Walter Johnson.
― clemenza, Monday, 30 March 2020 13:43 (four years ago) link
i know you can do this for any ancient ballplayer vs modern, but if Walter Johnson was a SP today, do you think he would have an ERA > or < 5.00?
― Karl Malone, Monday, 30 March 2020 15:24 (four years ago) link
(not quibbling with old timers being up at the top of the list, either. continual improvement is the name of the game. some day there will be a league full of prime era pujols cyborgs)
― Karl Malone, Monday, 30 March 2020 15:25 (four years ago) link
As I've said many times in connection to Coors field, I think there's a limit as to how much adjusting you can do for various factors. I don't know about Johnson, but I know that if were doing something similar, my default would be to always give close calls to the modern player. Which is one of the reasons I hope Mays finishes ahead of Ruth for #1 (and why someone else might hope Bonds finishes ahead of both).
― clemenza, Monday, 30 March 2020 15:38 (four years ago) link
"if I were doing"
also, as you've pointed out, he's made it clear that it's not really a straight up "ranking" - it's also about extra-baseball things, who has a good story, etc.
otherwise, i have no idea why trout is in the upper 20s on the list. but yes, he is boring as hell and has pretty much no story other than how good he is and how pujols made a pact with the devil to prevent the angels from making the playoffs
― Karl Malone, Monday, 30 March 2020 15:51 (four years ago) link
"No, it’s true, you can’t really compare the pitching Johnson did during Deadball — or even in those early years after Deadball — with baseball 100 years later. Different games. Different times. We have nothing at all to compare with Johnson’s pitching from 1910-1915, when he went 174-80 with a 1.51 ERA, 1,494 strikeouts, 390 walks and 24 homers allowed in more than 2,100 innings.
In 1916, Johnson pitched 369 innings and gave up zero home runs. Zero.
There’s no conversion chart that can tell us how Johnson’s stuff would hold up today. All we have are the stories and the quotes — and from those, you can understand the awe that people felt when seeing how impossibly hard Johnson threw."
The thing is, in 1916, Wally Pipp (!) led the league in HR with 12. So not giving up any is impressive, but...
Anyway, Posnanski knows this.
― clemenza, Monday, 30 March 2020 16:04 (four years ago) link
yeah, the fact that he was so much better than his peers, and so consistently, is enough for me. it's funny how inner-circle hall of famers are on the outsiden edges of the bell curve distribution, looking in
― Karl Malone, Monday, 30 March 2020 16:55 (four years ago) link
*outside edges
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hSyxhRP-DL8
― ℺ ☽ ⋠ ⏎ (✖), Tuesday, 31 March 2020 00:00 (four years ago) link
Forgot all about that...posted a link in the comments section.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 31 March 2020 02:24 (four years ago) link
#6, Ted Williams of the MFL.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 1 April 2020 12:10 (four years ago) link
Think I've encountered this elsewhere, too:
DiMaggio during the streak: .408/.463/.717, 1.180 OPSWilliams all of 1941: .406/.553/.735, 1.288 OPS
― clemenza, Wednesday, 1 April 2020 12:43 (four years ago) link
Gleaned this from the comments: Oscar Charleston is the missing player. I always thought Gibson/Leonard were considered #1/2 among Negro League players, but I guess that's changed.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 1 April 2020 12:45 (four years ago) link
otherwise, i have no idea why trout is in the upper 20s on the list.
I'm assuming it's because 27 is his uniform number
― k3vin k., Wednesday, 1 April 2020 15:20 (four years ago) link
Hey! You've unlocked the key that opens some (if not all) of the doors: Seaver's uniform number was 41, Gibson's was 45...
― clemenza, Wednesday, 1 April 2020 16:38 (four years ago) link
As I've mentioned at least once, someone at a national SABR convention -- I recall it being Kevin Goldstein, tho it may not have been -- suggested that by objective standards, Adam Jones is probably a better baseball player than Willie Mays, to great consternation. That's just evolution.
All-time player lists can only measure an individual against his era.
― brooklyn suicide cult (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 1 April 2020 16:46 (four years ago) link
I have received that suggestion with great consternation.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 1 April 2020 16:57 (four years ago) link
Gleaned this from the comments: Oscar Charleston is the missing player. I always thought Gibson/Leonard were considered #1/2 among Negro League players, but I guess that's changed. I almost mentioned this, I swear! But then I thought “higher than satchel Paige and Josh Gibson, though?”
― Karl Malone, Wednesday, 1 April 2020 17:21 (four years ago) link