the pitch clock is counting down to the MLB 2023 REGULAR SEASON THREAD

(xpost) I guess the luck here has indeed been their schedule; the games themselves have been almost all blowouts (which--an early first principle of sabermetrics--suggests they might be really, really good).

Honestly they squeezed one run past the Red Sox, who are not a good team, and the game last night featured:

- a horrific error at shortstop that put Wander Franco on base (which contributed to first three run homer)
- Zack Kelly coming on for Sale and having an absolute nightmare inning where the winning two runs got scored

I can’t imagine either of those things happening with a team with either of a reliable bullpen or a functioning shortstop.


And the Red Sox as a team can’t buy a hit at the moment. It’s honestly not really worth analysing it this early.

Sorry, earlier in this series, I meant to say in first sentence.

I'll dig up James's piece in the '85 Abstract on the '84 Tigers when I get home, the gist of which was: at what point does a fast start cross the threshold of statistical significance?

Oh please don’t on my account

Initial analysis of game duration is -27 minutes (3h6m vs 2h39m) from 2022 to 2023.

https://i.imgur.com/DX1tDZA.jpeg

Just for gyac...He looked at each increment up to 10 games (1, 2, 3...10), then 15, then 20, for all teams from 1965 to 1984, minus the two strike seasons. So there's no data for exactly 12 games. Anyway, for the first 10 games of the season:

7-3 - 58 teams, final winning pct. of .528
8-2 - 17 teams, final winning pct. of .561
9-1 - 5 teams, final winning pct. of .600
10-0 - 2 teams, final winning pct. of .525

His conclusion, as applied to the Rays--and including all the other data--would be nothing we don't already know: they're probably a very good team. The reason I find all this interesting is the two things in opposition: they're by and large blowing everyone away, but, yes, they've had a favorably weak schedule. So I don't know what to make of their start. I don't know if they're the '84 Tigers or the '82 Braves.

That Red Sox bullpen is such a problem. Sox lead 3-1 going into the bottom of the 5th. Kluber had one out when he gives up a walk and a double for a run. He gets the next guy (Diaz) to line out. Pitcher change. The Sox proceed to give up 7 runs in the inning cos the reliever can’t get the final out to end it. Awful, awful shit.

People unimpressed by the Rays start are being daft.

Take for example in 2020, no team was undefeated after the 3rd day of the season.

Sorry to talk in stats/probability but the parity involved in even the most uneven match-ups is like 70% v 30%.

In simpler terms, if you don't believe me, go to Vegas and try to bet a 13 game parlay and then look at the payout. If you bet $10 on the Rays to start the season 13-0 you'd have won ~$650k.

It's an incredibly improbable start and anyone saying otherwise is trolling.

agreed, if you win 98 games that's an amazing season and that would be "only" a 60% winrate

excited to see the Jays/Rays series kicking off tmrw!

A more detailed breakdown from mlb.com of the five 10-0 teams before the Rays (same five as the James data above):

If you’re wondering about what this could mean for October, let’s look at the history of teams to start at least 10-0 since the first World Series in 1903. The 1987 Brewers (13-0 start) went 91-71 and finished third in their division, but they would’ve made the playoffs under the current format. The 1982 Braves (13-0) went 89-73 and won their division, before being swept by the Cardinals in the NLCS. The 1981 A’s (11-0) went 64-45 and won the first-half division title, winning a Division Series against the Royals before losing the ALCS to the Yankees in three games. In 1966, Cleveland (10-0) went 81-81 and finished fifth in the AL. The 1962 Pirates (10-0) went 93-68 and finished fourth in the NL, but they would’ve made the playoffs under the current format. And in 1955 the Dodgers (10-0) went 98-55 and won the World Series.

https://www.mlb.com/news/rays-2023-winning-streak-facts-and-figures

I wish they weren't playing the Jays tonight. 1) Obviously, I want the Jays to win--I wish we were playing Oakland. 2) If the Rays were playing someone else, even though I should always root against the Rays, I'd want the streak to continue, just as something to marvel at.

Anyway, with Berrios starting, Jays can't lose.

Jesus. Imagine getting 93 wins and finishing fourth!

And I’m looking forward to the game tonight. The unstoppable force meets the comeback machine. If the jays fall behind early, that just means they have the Rays right where they want them!

I (of course) sent in a "Hey Bill" about the Rays; James's answer is very much in line with Steve Shasta's above.

Bill - In the '85 Abstract, you used part of your Tigers essay to research this basic question: at what point does a hot start become meaningful. I won't try to summarize all the data here, but your basic conclusion as applied to the Rays this year (now 12-0) would be--I think--you should take their start seriously.

I find them really interesting because: 1) they're usually blowing the opposition away; and 2) they've had a noticeably weak schedule.

How much does the second point mitigate the first?
Asked by: Phil Dellio

Answered: 4/14/2023
Not at all. Their schedule hasn't been that weak, and the difference between how well you play against "weak" teams as opposed to average teams isn't anything. That's a basketball/football argument that gets transplanted into baseball. In football, you play three straight opponents that will finish 3-13, 4-12, 3-13...well, sure, you've got a meaningful advantage. In baseball it doesn't really change the odds very much.

Tampa Bay is a really good team. I watched the whole Red Sox series. The list of things that the Rays did better than the Red Sox would go on for an hour. They're going to win 90 to 99 games. And 13-0 is impressive.

*******

Of the Rays first 13 games, 5 have been against the Red Sox and the Yankees. The other teams are presumed weak, might actually be weak or might not, but by the end of year the weighted winning percentage of those opponents will probably be .450 or better.

The random chance that an average team will go 13-0 against average opposition is .000 122. The random chance that an average team would go 13-0 against .450 opposition is .000 421. So yes, it is mathematically RELATIVELY different, comparing one to the other, but in practical terms, it isn't. It is one in 2400 as opposed to one in 8000.

I was more curious if he thought they might win 110. Even absent the streak, I would have put Tampa Bay down for 90-99 wins.

I tried to watch Giants game today but it's on Apple TV. This year you have to pay.

Looks like I'm not missing anything and otherwise I have other plans.

Wow the rays are falling apart right now!

Ooof, turned on the Rays game right as they walked in a run

bee: https://v2.sportsurge.net/#/groups/0

https://i.imgur.com/wTSL10V.png

And the streak ends!

Rowdy has 3 HR in 2 days, god i love him

jim edmonds is trending on twitter for the second game in a row

Luis Castillo was perfect after six innings but then gave up a hit at the beginning of the 7th 😫

I’m going to assume Edmonds is not trending for good reasons?

This guy getting absolutely dragged on Twitter for this bs

Oh we need to look into you employment too I guess cuz you're kinda ass LIKE....Like you not doing YOUR job let's talk about THAT https://t.co/4pc8XvzwyT pic.twitter.com/wpR7H6J5tf

— 🝮 (@Seiolfur) April 17, 2023

bumgarner dfa'd

What a way to go out: raging at a Latino player over fuck all

"Shut the fuck up you pussy, fuck you" -Madison Bumgarner to Willson Contreras pic.twitter.com/cQQSOp02We

— Jomboy Media (@JomboyMedia) April 19, 2023

he’s been like…an average-at-best pitcher since he left SF.

honestly can't decide if the Bass tweet is entitled or if the stewardess was crossing a line asking his wife to clean up her kids mess.
sort of torn until i remember him and his wife are huge fuckhead trump fans and operating at a heightened level of arrogance and imagined persecution

and speaking of which, i have no idea what Bumgarner was raging about there at all

xp it’s 100% entitled bullshit

i have no idea what Bumgarner was raging about there at all

during the diamondbacks broadcast they were saying he was mad because Contreras swung too hard (?)

it was probably because he was latino

cant imagine he has much time left in the big leagues

There’s probably a load of Giants fans who’ll want him back. Honestly I’m sure some team would take a punt for league minimum?

so are they going to call up pfaadt now

i suppose someone will take a flier on him, but i can't see why

he can't start. in this decade he has an 80 ERA+ and under 7 K/9. he historically has good splits against lefties, but less so recently, and the three-batter rule makes him hard to use as a reliever. plus he'd probably bitch constantly about how he should be starting

and that the *diamondbacks* would pull the plug on a guy they still owe $34m is brutal

Yeah not as a starter but who knows, maybe someone could sell him on a long reliever role. Assuming he still wants to play.

Wow, I heard he wasn't doing well but not so bad that he would be DFA. He won't be back in San Francisco as they have seven starting pitchers and Kyle Harrison is ready.

Things have taken a particularly pronounced downswing in 2023, however, as Bumgarner has been torched for 20 runs (19 earned) on 25 hits and 15 walks with just 10 strikeouts in 16 2/3 innings.

it's really hard to be worse than this

did anyone watch him pitch this year? every pitch was a loping BP pitch coming in at 88 mph right down the heart of the plate. i kinda thought i could get a hit off him when he was facing the marlins the other week

Yeah but you know how much they love a nostalgia signing. And I’m pretty sure they’ll find some way to retire him a Giant. Have seen tweets like this:

Mad Bum can put up a 7 ERA for the next 2 years, I do not care. Bring him home. I. Do. Not. Care.

— Dave (@gggiants) April 20, 2023

xp I saw his Dodgers innings and I was shocked, he was never a high velocity guy but his control was utterly gone

only reason the giants do it is if they're retiring him a giant instantly lol

Right,and this is a different front office. I can see him pitching for Bochy again.

Can only see him in Texas if he’s roping tbh

Is he better than anyone on the A's? Semi serious question

If the Diamondbacks do move on from Bumgarner and eat the rest of his contract, it'd make sense that he'd try to steer himself to the Rangers. There is a ton of trust shared with new Texas Manager Bruce Bochy, built on three championships.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) April 20, 2023

Called it but also didn't know they are currently in first place. Who knows?

4/6 teams in an American League playoff spot are from the AL east. Christ.