Just saw one of those generic Player A vs. B tables on my FB wall, this one with Schwarber and Dave Kingman. Through age-30 season (i.e., this year for Schwarber):
Schwarber - 246 HR, .227/.340/.492, 121 OPS+, 11.9 bWARKingman - 252 HR, .241/.305/.504, 121 OPS+, 14.5 bWAR
Was surprised by the closeness in HR/OPS+/bWAR (I would have thought Schwarber would have a clear edge), even more so by the perceptions of each in their day: Kingman a one-dimensional freak, Schwarber an underrated analytic sleeper. There's a bit more, of course: Kingman's toxicity in the clubhouse, Schwarber's postseason heroics. But they really do underscore changes in attitudes brought on by analytics.
― clemenza, Thursday, 26 October 2023 19:52 (seven months ago) link
i bet schwarber is even worse on defense than Kingman was. though considering the "fog of glove" i wonder if the correction for his fielding ability is a bit extreme. but he's a player of such extremes overall, so who knows? i tend to think his value might be a bit more than the analytics suggest, though.
― omar little, Thursday, 26 October 2023 20:11 (seven months ago) link
i don't think he's really an underrated analytic sleeper? i mean he's *interesting*, but there are pieces out there asking whether his are the least-valuable 40+ homer seasons ever. b-ref has him at 0.7 WAR this year with fangraphs at 1.4. he suffered from their need to use harper at DH this year, but a 119 wRC+ in itself isn't super-great for a $20m/yr player who offers nothing else (tangible)
kinda curious exactly how bad a catcher he was tho
― mookieproof, Thursday, 26 October 2023 20:42 (seven months ago) link
I overstated that, yes, but I think he gets a measure of respect from a lot of fans and writers today that Kingman didn't. This evolution, of course, started 25 years ago when James would tell people that Bobby Grich and Darrell Evans and Gene Tenace were better players--contributed more to winning games--than Steve Garvey or Bill Buckner or Al Oliver did. He was widely viewed as a crackpot. Analytics isn't exactly mainstream yet, but it's getting closer and closer all the time. (Not a meaningless indicator, I'd say: WAR on Immaculate Grid today.)
― clemenza, Thursday, 26 October 2023 21:16 (seven months ago) link
Today: James is widely viewed as a crackpot, but for different reasons...progress!
― clemenza, Thursday, 26 October 2023 21:17 (seven months ago) link
"25 years ago"--make that 45
― clemenza, Thursday, 26 October 2023 21:26 (seven months ago) link
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/86275/veteran-presence-kyle-schwarber-phillies-leadoff/
I can't access this--"Is Kyle Schwarber the Weirdest Leadoff Hitter Ever?--but I'm guessing it splits the difference as to how he's viewed today.
― clemenza, Thursday, 26 October 2023 21:39 (seven months ago) link
108115104126
I imagine it's really tough to have a full season in which your runs, hits, rbi, and walks are so numerically close to each other.
― omar little, Thursday, 26 October 2023 22:12 (seven months ago) link
Not as close, but geez, his batting average was also a three-digit number starting with 1.
― clemenza, Friday, 27 October 2023 12:28 (seven months ago) link
I stand corrected on Dave Kingman. Turns out he did have his fans.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KKNnXZqQom8
― clemenza, Tuesday, 31 October 2023 00:02 (seven months ago) link
Sabermetrics is kind of old news; I propose turning this into a "Tommy Lasorda sure does love to say 'fuck' a lot" video thread.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AvFMEoKI7eE
― clemenza, Tuesday, 31 October 2023 03:18 (seven months ago) link
Getting back to the subject at hand, all those links in this thread's original post 13 years ago are still active. SIERA (Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average): never really took off.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 31 October 2023 03:41 (seven months ago) link
Which is odd, being so easy to calculate in your head:
6.145 – 16.986*(SO/PA) + 11.434*(BB/PA) – 1.858((GB-FB-PU)/PA) + 7.653*((SO/PA)^2) +/- 6.664*(((GB-FB-PU)/PA)^2) + 10.130*(SO/PA)*((GB-FB-PU)/PA) – 5.195*(BB/PA)*((GB-FB-PU)/PA) where +/- is as before such that it is a negative sign when (GB-FB-PU)/PA is positive and vice versa.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 31 October 2023 03:43 (seven months ago) link
u mad doggie?
Brian Cashman pushes back on the notion that the Yankees are an "analytically-driven" organization:"No one is doing their deep dives, they're just throwing bulls--- and accusing us of being run analytically. To be said we're guided by analytics as a driver is a lie." pic.twitter.com/ru6gAYc0Cf— Yankees Videos (@snyyankees) November 7, 2023
― Humanitarian Pause (Tracer Hand), Wednesday, 8 November 2023 11:28 (six months ago) link
Amusing if you grew up with this:
https://i.postimg.cc/ZRPJVS6M/lineup.jpg
They've got #2 wrong: that was your fabled bat-control, hit-and-run guy.
― clemenza, Thursday, 18 April 2024 20:31 (one month ago) link
"guy who sees 10 pitches per AB"
― Ryan seaQuest (Will M.), Friday, 19 April 2024 20:50 (one month ago) link
That too, yeah--give your leadoff guy a chance to steal. Neither of the first two #2 hitters I think of, though, match the stereotype: Griffey for the Big Red Machine (faster than Rose at leadoff), and Alomar for the Jays' WS teams (would have been a #3 hitter on many teams, but the Jays were overloaded with hitting).
― clemenza, Saturday, 20 April 2024 00:13 (one month ago) link
Just digging into Ted "Big Klu" Kluszewski's career a little bit and happened upon this remarkable stat, which seems unlikely to ever be repeated for even a month, much less four seasons:
At his four-year peak, Big Klu had more homers than strikeouts.
― Humanitarian Pause (Tracer Hand), Tuesday, 21 May 2024 06:58 (one week ago) link
Wow. Anyone done it since 2011 (min. 20 HR)?
https://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/10091.html
― clemenza, Tuesday, 21 May 2024 17:24 (one week ago) link
Bonds and Brett the only two guys on there after 1956.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 21 May 2024 17:26 (one week ago) link
Mattingly came very close a number of times in the '80s: he had consecutive years of (HR/K) 23-33, 35-41, 31-35, 30-38, 18-29, 23-30.
Interested in the other extreme, too. Teams will put up with 200 K if you hit, what, at least 30-35 HR. Wonder if anyone's been over 200 K and under 20 HR? That would seem to be a quick ticket out of the league.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 21 May 2024 19:24 (one week ago) link
Yoan Moncada had 17 HR and 217 K in 2018
― omar little, Tuesday, 21 May 2024 19:27 (one week ago) link
Drew Stubbs in 2011 had 15 HR and 205 K
― omar little, Tuesday, 21 May 2024 19:28 (one week ago) link
(xpost) Yikes! That's gotta be the worst ever. Maybe even more amazingly--that's not an easy thing to fix--he came back the next year and hit 25 HR with only ("only") 154 K, and hit .315.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 21 May 2024 19:30 (one week ago) link
So Stubbs is slightly worse. Also kept his job--I'm clearly wrong about that.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 21 May 2024 19:32 (one week ago) link
9 of the 39 190+ K seasons in MLB history were achieved by a Chris, Khris, or Kris.
― omar little, Tuesday, 21 May 2024 19:35 (one week ago) link
Negro League stats incorporated in with MLB, pretty coolhttps://apnews.com/article/negro-leagues-statistics-4a204a3cac0527ab5be750783fd411df
― brimstead, Wednesday, 29 May 2024 13:58 (five days ago) link
A rundown of all the changes on all-time seasonal and career leaderboards:
https://www.mlb.com/news/stats-leaderboard-changes-negro-leagues-mlb
― clemenza, Wednesday, 29 May 2024 14:48 (five days ago) link
I had no idea this was happening! Amazing!
I had no idea Josh Gibson died age 35.
― Humanitarian Pause (Tracer Hand), Wednesday, 29 May 2024 15:41 (five days ago) link
And in 1947, making it one of the most poignant moments in the Ken Burns film. (Jan. 20: I assume the Dodgers had already announced their intention to bring Robinson up.)
― clemenza, Wednesday, 29 May 2024 17:03 (five days ago) link
not sure how i feel about this
on one hand, it's cool that some great players get recognition
on the other hand, waiting until essentially all the negro leaguers are dead and then claiming them as part of its history is kinda fucked up for an organization that specifically banned them for 50 years!
on the other other hand, it's all just numbers and lists; does it really matter
saw someone suggest that we treat pre-fully-integrated baseball (i.e., before the red sox called up pumpsie green in 1959) kind of like the deadball era -- it happened, but it operated under circumstances so different as to be barely applicable to today's game. that will never happen -- we're too attached to ruth and dimaggio and williams etc. etc. -- but it's an interesting thought
― mookieproof, Wednesday, 29 May 2024 18:54 (five days ago) link
It's weird: Baseball Reference still has Cobb first, but they also--and have for a year or two now--have Oscar Charleston second and Jud Wilson fifth. Is it that Gibson's career was too short? (But wouldn't bRef be using the same benchmarks as MLB?)
― clemenza, Wednesday, 29 May 2024 20:16 (five days ago) link
Howabouttttt.....
giving Sadaharu Oh the all-time home run title?
― Mrs. Ippei (Steve Shasta), Wednesday, 29 May 2024 20:17 (five days ago) link
From a friend:“I caught part of an interview on NPR with the guy who started doing the research. There were no databases so he had to enter stats from each game by hand. He said that one game took about 30 minutes and he had 16,000 games. Yikes.”
― Humanitarian Pause (Tracer Hand), Wednesday, 29 May 2024 21:51 (five days ago) link
(xpost) The one caveat I'd throw up about that is the occasional ex-MLB player who went over to Japan and went from being a journeyman to a star. There were a handful of famous examples in the '80s I'm blanking out on. Obviously we've seen a number of Japanese players go in the other direction and become stars and superstars and Shohei. Maybe the overall depth 50 years ago wasn't what it became later?
― clemenza, Wednesday, 29 May 2024 22:01 (five days ago) link
Bob Horner!
― Humanitarian Pause (Tracer Hand), Wednesday, 29 May 2024 22:03 (five days ago) link
I'm not sure I follow the argument though. There were no gentlemen's agreements excluding hundreds of Japanese players from MLB - this harmonizes American professional baseball nothing more. If someone wants to create a composite chart of the world's baseball players, including Cuba and the DR etc - nothing's stopping them
― Humanitarian Pause (Tracer Hand), Wednesday, 29 May 2024 22:05 (five days ago) link
RANDY BASS
― mookieproof, Wednesday, 29 May 2024 22:07 (five days ago) link
For every Randy Bass mention, I am legally obligated to repost this amazing story (esp. if gyac has yet to encounter it).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curse_of_the_Colonel
― Mrs. Ippei (Steve Shasta), Wednesday, 29 May 2024 23:07 (five days ago) link
Yes--Randy Bass! His '85/86 seasons in Japan, which were Bonds-like numbers (54/47 HR, .350/.389) after a six-year, .212/.284/.326 career. Anyway, it's an interesting point about Oh. Posnanski had him #85 on his list, with, as remember, lots of evidence (beyond just his HR) that he would have had a great MLB career. If they were to make that change, I'd be fine with it.
― clemenza, Thursday, 30 May 2024 00:09 (four days ago) link
Wasn’t Davey Johnson huge in Japan? I just read a book about American players in Japan you think I’d remember
― brimstead, Thursday, 30 May 2024 00:34 (four days ago) link
Had a big year there in '76, yes. (Mind you, unlike Bass, he was a legitimate MLB star who hit 43 HR with the Braves one year.)
― clemenza, Thursday, 30 May 2024 00:41 (four days ago) link
randy bass was also part of the fabled* 1980 denver bears team that also featured a young tim wallach and very young tim raines among other recognizable names
*also* randy bass spent 2005-2019 in the oklahoma state senate as a democrat
― mookieproof, Thursday, 30 May 2024 00:52 (four days ago) link
I'm excited about the Negro Leagues stats announcement, this will hopefully lead to a lot of new research and debate.
However, incorporating their stats into MLB doesn't really address the real problem. We don't know whether Josh Gibson would have had a higher BA than Ty Cobb had they played in an integrated MLB. A lot of the weaker pitchers that Cobb faced wouldn't have been in the majors if the league had been integrated. I don't know what Cobb's BA would have been, but surely a lot lower than .366. And you could make the same argument about Gibson. Putting Gibson and Cobb on the same leaderboard gives the illusion that they were contemporaries whose stats can be compared (which is possible post-1947, or post-1961 expansion), but it's not so straightforward.
(actually, if we're going to fantasy book an integrated MLB pre-1947, then a racist like Cobb might have refused to join it and instead found a white-only minor league to play in, in which case we might not know his name today)
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Thursday, 30 May 2024 08:02 (four days ago) link