Hot Stove 2023-2024

i don’t mind the tyler o’neill trade, he seems like numbers wise he’s like-for-like with duvall and a better glove but there was something nagging me about it that i couldn’t put my finger on.. and then i realised, he looks like a fuckin yankee

Another good summary of yesterday:

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2023/12/09/obsessive-shohei-ohtani-watch-trying-to-reset-after-a-crazy-day/

Feel quite silly about getting drawn in.

i don’t mind the tyler o’neill trade, he seems like numbers wise he’s like-for-like with duvall and a better glove but there was something nagging me about it that i couldn’t put my finger on.. and then i realised, he looks like a fuckin yankee

Ohtani’s a Dodger. Details to follow, according to his Instagram. He apologised for taking so long!

Fucking hell!

Shohei Ohtani's deal with the Dodgers is for 10 years and $700 million.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 9, 2023

whhhat tf

Got da

Yes, that.

$70m a year is insane for a guy who’s going to be pitching less than half that time. Unless he did agree to learn to play the outfield in that eventuality. I guess we’ll find out at his press conference.

There are no opt-outs in Shohei Ohtani's deal.

— Alden González (@Alden_Gonzalez) December 9, 2023

Anything anybody from Toronto says at this point obviously has an element of sour grapes, so I won't even try to argue that. But in all honesty, I can't imagine paying anyone that kind of money. And Ohtani is 29, with his future as a pitcher unclear. If you can afford it, like L.A. can, I guess it doesn't matter. Toronto could have afforded that kind of money, too,* but as a practical matter--baseball does not feel like it's at the top of the priority list--it would have boxed them in for the next few years.

*Rogers Communication gross profit for the twelve months ending September 30, 2023 was $7.120B, a 45.8% increase year-over-year. Rogers Communication annual gross profit for 2022 was $4.917B, a 4.69% increase from 2021. Rogers Communication annual gross profit for 2021 was $4.697B, a 47.43% decline from 2020.

I think Toronto has to have offered over 600 to get the Dodgers to go to 700. If he hadn’t been injured, I would understand that. 700 not knowing how he might pitch again for how long…it’s a lot.

That's the thing that really gives me pause, the injury. His age, too. There's a decent chance L.A. is really paying for two of the greatest seasons ever more than what he'll do from here. I'm sure he'll do very well, but going by this piece, he'd have to compile 100 WAR over the life of the contract, 10.0 a season, to break even...but I know that's a simplification of his real value, etc., etc. So who knows.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10063324-inside-the-rising-cost-of-winning-in-mlb-free-agency

Ohtani deal with Dodgers, per source, includes “unprecedented” deferrals - the majority of his salary. The deferrals were Ohtani’s idea to ease the Dodgers’ luxury-tax and cash flow burdens to give the team the flexibility needs to be as competitive as possible, the source said.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 9, 2023

That contract is insane. Ohtani is great but...that's insane.

Breaking my ilxor break to say: wtf????????????????

Contract is absolutely insane

people will be saying Happy Bobby Bonilla Shohei Ohtani Day until the planet burns up

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fHj3IMpy3Co

How many fans did the dodgers just buy?

I’m buying a jersey as soon as they’re up. Gotta contribute to the payroll

Dodgers potential lineup right now (the offseason is just getting started)

1. Mookie Betts, 2B
2. Freddie Freeman, 1B
3. Shohei Ohtani, DH
4. Will Smith, C
5. Max Muncy, 3B
6. James Outman, CF
7. Chris Taylor, LF
8. Jason Heyward, RF
9. Gavin Lux, SS

How do you pitch to this?

— Noah Camras (@noahcamras) December 9, 2023

Seemed inevitable but that's a lot of cash.

Gonna be really funny when we find out he goes missing in the playoffs

Uhh…wow

Good on Ohtani for making bank, but, wow, that's an insane amount of money.

How to win a whole nation to your team fan are with one small trick

You better believe I am going to be flaunting my dodger credential the whole time I’m in Japan next week. The kershaw jersey is being worn everyday and I will be stopping for questions and photos by all my fellow dodger fans

Just realised this one move moved me from the 1st generation to 2nd generation Dodger fandom. Looking forward to wearing this status market at all possible opportunities

*marker

the ghost of don drysdale looks over us all

Serious question: when else has an organisation been able to purchase a hof’er in free agency that will guarentee go in with their hat on. Obviously not 100% lock, but it’s deffs a solid 95% chance the dodgers just bought a dodgers hall of famer. I can’t imagine this has happened more than one other time?

“Knowingly purchase”, I should clarify

Ichiro?

Maybe the Padres and Machado?

Angels/pujols might have have worked out that way, in theory. If pujols would have had a solid 30s with the angels, racking up milestones and some more awards, maybe an angels WS or two, maybe he’d go into the hof with an angels hat? Even then it seems doubtful

>when else has an organisation been able to purchase a hof’er in free agency that will guarentee go in with their hat on

Wade. Boggs.

maybe the angels w/ vlad sr bcuz people knew the expos were not going to be around? he went in as an angel despite only being great there for a few seasons and all of his most iconic years being in montreal

gerrit cole was in his late 20s coming off of two seasons of like 13-15 WAR combined when the yankees signed him. i don't think he's a no doubt hall of famer in the same way as ohtani but given his draft pedigree and that performance it wouldn't have been unreasonable for the yankees to think they might be purchasing a hall of fame plaque

i'm not sure if manny ramirez was considered a hall of fame lock exactly but the red sox knew they were signing one of the best hitters of his generation in his prime. he would be in as a red sock if not for the roid stuff

would throw bonds out there too

cc. harper. whoever signs soto next year. came pretty close with mussina. mookie was a trade but still purchased in a way. i imagine scherzer will have no logo but the nats would have an argument

idg the wade boggs answer

Ichiro nah,
Machado kinda escapes on technicality. His first contract with the Padres had an opt out and he was talking about taking it early this year before he signed his big no-opt-out extension which now puts him as a locked padres hall of famer
Pujols definitely a weird one for the reasons stated.
Wade Boggs also idgi
Vlad sr a good call (though not as strong a lock as ohtani, obviously, no one is)
Gerrit Cole's contract having opt outs kinda compromises it
I didn't think harper was a locked hof'er when his contract sheneigans were going down. The likelihood was good, but it wasn't a "we are absolutely buying a hall of famer" type conversation iirc. A lot, and I mean A LOT of promise, but no lock like Ohtani. There was a lot of doubt with him only having one absolutely stellar season. Since signing, yeah absolutely no doubt going to the hall of fame and with a phillies hat on

Thinking of all this makes you realise how foolish it is to compare Ohtani to like, anything

Congrats to the best player on Earth. I’ll always remember our battles over the years (1 AB, 1 pitch, he homered) https://t.co/3ohE6W3mUo

— Trevor Hildenberger (@t_hildy) December 9, 2023

it's obviously still a ton of money, but worth noting that all the deferred money ($400M, more than half of the contract) is going to be worth quite a bit less when ohtani receives it, post-2034. applying a pretty standard 5% discount rate brings that $400M down to $129M in present value

ohtani is going to be so mad when he finds out!

"i said i prefer more money, not defer it!"

*headinhands*

but yeah, i think it brings it down to $43M AAV, which is more than about 25 teams can afford but seems to make it much more manageable for the doyers

Boggs answer was just a joke

but also, technically, accurate

also just a few thoughts about tyler o'neill, whose given name is tyler bro'neill. his father is a canadian powerlifting legend, and tyler also likes to pump iron. when healthy, he can be one of the best players in the league. he has excellent power, defense, and speed. unfortunately he is almost always injured or recovering from an injury. if he can stay healthy, he has a chance to win mvp votes in 2024. if he does not stay healthy, he will pick up a SUV and throw it.

part of the reason he's out of st louis is he made the mistake of telling everyone in spring training 2023, that he thought he should be the starting CF. there was kind of a competition for it early last year, between dylan carlson, nootbaar, tommy edman, and o'neill. you could make good cases for all of them. o'neill has a lot of confidence and has the talent to back it up, but he stumbled out of the gate, made enemies with manager oli marmol (who i dislike, already), and would have been gone at the trade deadline if not for some injury

maybe the sox can flip him to the bronx his natural home

How else are they going to have the most hench outfield though