Hot Stove 2023-2024

for better or worse, morel feels like javy baez pt. 2 (without the flashy defense)

(i do not have high hopes for him)

I feel like the key determinant of Baez at the plate is how much shit outside the zone he swings at. Have you seen the shit Baez was swinging at this year? Morel is in the 43rd percentile for chase rate, Baez is in the 1st. The highest Baez has ever got in his career is 6th. Morel also hits hard and has pretty decent barrelling numbers; Baez looks like a noodle bat.

Morel:
https://i.postimg.cc/MHGkQKHm/IMG-2970.jpg

Baez:
https://i.postimg.cc/SR1B7FzF/IMG-2971.jpg

Morel walks at a better rate than Javy, but he doesn't have Javy's considerable base running and defensive value. I'm a little wary of his long-term prospects. But he's still young and I still would definitely not give him up for Glasnow. Aka Mr. Glassnow.

Rowdy Tellez to Pirates. @ByRobertMurray 1st
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 13, 2023

Going to see him in April I guess!
― mojo dojo casas house (gyac), Tuesday, December 12, 2023 6:51 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

are they gonna use him as a hitter or pitcher?

i meant more young baez than current baez. also more of an impression than a firm 1:1 comparison.

Fair enough, though Baez at the same age and career stage as Morel (first full season) didn’t profile much different as a hitter. Elite glove obviously.

And I do see now that Morel is currently in the DR playing winter ball, no doubt to work on his glove.

Unusual clause in Ohtani contract

Contract also states, “If specific change in Dodger personnel, player may opt out of contract at end of season the change occurs.” Not known at present who this refers to.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 13, 2023

Mike Trout

95% chance that’s about this interpreter, maybe like 5% Mookie Betts?

Saw a tweet that they're in on belli too

God I hope not. He’s got boondoggle written all over him.

He had an incredibly high ceiling. Big power, and even when he was below average in his offence for the dodgers he still put up positive war with his elite defence. He proved he still had his mojo with the cubs imo, think he’d be a great pick up for any team. I’d back the dodgers going after him again

His k rate dropped by about 12% in 2023. I’m really curious if he’s figured something out, or if that’s just some amazing fluke

over 600+ plate appearances? kinda stretches the definition of "fluke". It reverted back to his end of 2020 pre-shoulder injury form. I don't know if he gets any better than 2023, but barring serious injuries, I don't see him getting significantly worse, besides the normal drop of age. 27 though? I think any team is going to get a great outfielder for the next five years minimum

What I'm interested in is his drop in hr's. I didn't watch much belli last year so don't have the eye test. Looking at the stats, his average and k% were both at 2019 mvp cody form. Also wtf a 300+ average for a 2023 player known historically as a power hitter???? It's just the slug that dropped, and the walks along with it (I see those as connected). He hit more singles this season than any other, probably connected to the new shift rule? The shift worked against him more than any other dodger player while he was there.

But really what happened to the power? Was the 2019 juiced ball really responsible for Cody's monstrous 2019 .629 slug? His 2023 .525 slug is still elite, just weird to see that as the only thing that dropped for a 27yo player

whoever gets belli is going to be a better team in 2024 because of him

22nd lowest k%
13th highest wrc+ for 2023
12th highest ops
9th highest slug
6th highest average (this is the craziest to me, had a pretty stock babip too, just slightly higher than average)

Andrew Friedman just got himself 10 years of job security

https://apnews.com/article/shohei-otani-dodgers-3fe44e39efc42674f75b5233cc01b149

"Ohtani... would be allowed to terminate his deal if Mark Walter no longer is controlling owner or president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman no longer is with the team, the person said."

Joe Kelly re: giving up his uniform number.
“I wasn’t going to give it up to just anybody,” Kelly said. “If Shohei keeps performing, he’ll be a future Hall of Famer and I’ll be able to have my number retired. That’s the closest I’ll get to the Hall of Fame.”

Asked what Ohtani was giving him in return, Kelly said, “Oh, there’s a list, but no comment.”

Everything about this deal is just wild

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QVCgggECm_g

I miss him so much 🥹

Also sorry read the stats wrong, belli had 556 pa's this year, but point still stands

Ya. It’s not the sort of thing that fluctuates wildly one year to the next. It’s also a really hard thing to cut down by that much.

Totally. He's has 2 bad years directly attributable to an injury, and 5 great years all up. I think he proved he's still great, and the bad ones have a justifiable reason.

he did drop his k rate by 7% 2018-2019 though, but can probably attribute that to it being very early in his playing career and having to adjust to pitchers figuring him out. 12% drop is just wild

h p who do you support in the battle for the CLAXTON SHIELD

Bandits all the way baby

Who previously employed Randy Johnson (no not that one)

And are currently managed by the first Australian MLB all-star, Dave Nilsson (whose birthday is today!!!)

Bellinger appears to have shortened his swing on 2-strike counts and traded power for contact, which is fair enough. But this has also reduced his ability to hit the fastball. He's very average when facing 95mph+ pitches. So it'll be interesting to see how the league adjusts. Sheehan notes that on xBA and xSLG and xWOBA he's an almost perfect comp for... Alex Verdugo, or 2017 Eric Hosmer

Yeah I was reading this article after posting that which references those points. See what happens
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/is-cody-bellingers-two-strike-approach-sustainable/

Active thread, and related to the off-season in general, so I'll post this here:

https://www.mlb.com/news/most-stunning-offseason-mlb-trades-in-history-c300892424

Surely the writer misses what would be my pick (bias noted) for the most stunning offseason trade of the past 40 years: the Alomar and Carter for McGriff and Fernandez trade in December, 1990. I was even going to ask one day if that was the last trade to involve two HOF'ers. (Plus: Carter was considered to be on a HOF track for part of his career, until analytics took over, and Fernandez had a great career.)

None of the trades they list involves two HOF'ers, not really even close, unless there's someone unknown from the past couple of years who steps forward. A-Rod for Soriano was huge at the time, yes, and looked to involve one HOF'er for sure and potentially a second one down the road.

Not off-season, but Scherzer and Trea Turner was a HOF and HO-very-very-very-good trade. In recent history, don’t know if any other trade has had two players (combined) better

This guy just signed with the Rangers for two years…seems good but often injured

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mahlety01.shtml

Ohtani streaming live now if anyone wants to hate watch

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtEL78f7ZCI

DOG NAME REVEAL:

dekoping, American name Decoy

Shohei: "good pace to be ready for opening day as a hitter"

Really love this Ippei guy, so nonplussed up there, sitting in his suit like he'd rather be in flip flops down at Venice eating a taco getting ready for a surf.

Yankees hair policy is a crime: zero aura Dugie 💔

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GBWP8Q3WgAExU92?format=jpg&name=900x900

Naaaaah that right there is prime frat-boy duggie. Love it

BREAKING: The Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays are in agreement on a trade to send RHP Tyler Glasnow and OF Manuel Margot to the Dodgers for RHP Ryan Pepiot and OF Jonny Deluca -- contingent on Glasnow signing an extension with L.A., which is expected, sources tell ESPN.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 15, 2023

Lotta talk about this being a bad trade for the Dodgers, but the farm has sp's to spare. Bobby Miller Emmet Sheehan and Ryan Pepiot , there was only really room for 2 of these guys (especially if Ohtani comes back!) Dodgers still have bobby and emmet to bet on, while getting a different kind of bet (health, not improvement) on Glasnow.

Buehler
Bobby
Sheehan
Gladnow
Kershaw (??????)

Healthy Glasnow + one other bloke (maybe a Japanese friend) would turn this from questionable to a solid rotation

May and Gonsolin had TJ this year so probably miss all of 2024 sadly.

2025, is where things get incredibly hopeful for Dodgers starting pitching

Ohtani
Buehler
May
Glasnow
Gonsolin/Kershaw/Bobby/Sheehan????? Will contend as one of the best rotations in baseball if all the TJ's turn out alright. It's a very *fingers crossed* outlook, but who knows what happens

this might be the first time i haver ever felt this way, but i'm glad my team is in the AL east right now

Buehler is recovering from his 2nd TJ, he pitched a total of 2 (two) innings in 2023 for AAA OKC. He pitched 36 innings in 2020 and 65 innings in 2022. He will be lucky to get to 100 IP/20 starts in 2024 before he gets shutdown IMHO. He could possibly pivot into a leverage guy, I just don't see him as a workhorse innings eater this season or even next.

Miller & Sheehan will probably get shutdown at some point after July. Young talent with massive workload issues.

Glasnow has never pitched over 120IP until last year, but even so he looks like the only guy that fits as a #1 SP.

Kershaw will have a flash or two of brilliance, but will inevitably get hurt (or is already hurt).

May should actually be back in the back of 2024 but I can't see him as a starter despite LAD trying to make him one. He's only started 34 games in 5 seasons which is very light, especially for a guy recovering from his second Tommy John surgery in 3 years time! He will be babied back into action.

Brandon Gomes also didn't want to commit to Dustin May pitching next season, though it's possible. He has not picked up a ball yet after undergoing his flexor tendon repair and TJ revision in July.

"He’s somebody that...we’re not going to push by any means," Gomes said.

— Fabian Ardaya (@FabianArdaya) November 8, 2023

Right-handed starter Michael Wacha and the Kansas City Royals are in agreement on a two-year, $32 million contract, a source tells ESPN. He gets an opt-out after the first season.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 15, 2023

Probably not news to Mookieproof but these are some staggering numbers

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GBZ8gm4WwAAgohg?format=jpg&name=medium

Right-handed starter Tyler Glasnow and the Los Angeles Dodgers are finalizing a five-year, $135 million contract that, once completed, will make official the trade of Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot from the Tampa Bay Rays to the Dodgers, sources told ESPN.

The deal, which will send right-handed starter Ryan Pepiot and outfield prospect Jonny Deluca to the Rays, was contingent on Glasnow signing an extension. The window to do so opened Thursday morning, and the parties quickly came together with the framework of a deal that will tack four years and $110 million in new money onto the $25 million Glasnow was owed for the 2024 season.

There is no deferred money in Glasnow's deal, sources said, after superstar Shohei Ohtani's contract with the Dodgers deferred $680 million of his $700 million guarantee. Some of the freed-up cash flow can go to Glasnow, who is from Southern California and joins Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman as Dodgers signed beyond 2025.

good luck

did the royals change owners or something? why are they suddenly snatching up middle of the road free agents?