Hot Stove 2023-2024

hell yeah we're winning

so Ohtani deferred his salary to allow LA to more flexibility to comfortably land Yamamoto.

...BUT knowing it's the Dodgers, I can't wait to hear about Yoshi's UCL worries (packaged to the media as "oblique soreness" or whatever) come July.

...

...then in 2029 he'll have his record 4th TJ.

Shasta injury notebook at the ready?

The dumbest thing you can do is go only one dollar over the luxury tax

well, so much for all that stuff about how ohtahi’s contract set a precedent that undermined his fellow players and was going to make them all take deferred money

i feel like this is the first time the NL has had a truly overdog villain a la the yankees. evil empire West.

God I hope both he and Ohtani stay healthy

Tbf j0rdan, Yamamoto’s nbp team gets a percentage of his contract as posting fee, which makes that whole deferred situation much more complicated and less likely to happen, if it’s even possible at all.

Well they’ve definitely blown the luxury tax! Expect them to resign Kersh closer to spring training. Otherwise, think the Dodgers have their team for the year.

——————
Mookie Betts
Freddie Freeman
Shohei Ohtani
Will Smith
Max Muncy
James Outman
Gavin Lux
Jason Heyward/Manuel Margot
Chris Taylor

Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Tyler Glasnow
Walker Buehler
Bobby Miller
Kershaw/Emmet-Sheehan
——————
Seems pretty hard to beat that day in day out. The bullpens nothing to sneeze at either

and yet they still may not even be the best team in the NL

Thankful that team isn’t exactly known for its post season success either

save us Spencer Strider! you’re our only hope!

i was going to say that rotation stability feels like an advantage atlanta has over LA but fried was on the IL with forearm stuff last year, strider is an arm injury waiting to happen and morton is 40 so that’s prob not true. the dodgers are also always after the top SP available at the deadline and i can’t imagine that will stop

Eventually baseball will be played again (please soon) and all will come to order. Here’s to another Dbacks

ilx posters i question their frankness
they say they back snakes but it’s easy to say this

I look forward to our new thread — 2024 mlb general chatter: dollar bin bats vs the billion dollar pitching rotation

As I pointed out to HP on upthread, the back 3 of LAD's rotation will not be starting games in September and the playoffs. MLB is not a video game, you just don't stretch out 2nd year pitchers to be season-long workhorses, those guys get shutdown in the weeks after the ASG usually, or babied in July/August.

I'll repost it again for posterity:

Buehler is recovering from his 2nd TJ, he pitched a total of 2 (two) innings in 2023 for AAA OKC. He pitched 36 innings in 2020 and 65 innings in 2022. He will be lucky to get to 100 IP/20 starts in 2024 before he gets shutdown IMHO. He could possibly pivot into a leverage guy, I just don't see him as a workhorse innings eater this season or even next.

Miller & Sheehan will probably get shutdown at some point after July. Young talent with massive workload issues.

Glasnow has never pitched over 120IP until last year, but even so he looks like the only guy that fits as a #1 SP.

Kershaw will have a flash or two of brilliance, but will inevitably get hurt (or is already hurt).

May could actually be back in the back of 2024 but I can't see him as a starter despite LAD trying to make him one. He's only started 34 games in 5 seasons which is very light, especially for a guy recovering from his second Tommy John surgery in 3 years time! He will be babied back into action.

Kershaw is recovering from surgery atm and his existing contract has actually expired, iirc he’s not due back till the summer

Hey I’m on the record backing those snakey boys in all the post season threads!

Agree that most of your points are most likely Shasta, but not necessarily a given. I disagree about Miller/Sheehan. I think one of them (most likely Miller) will be giving a full seasons work. Miller hit 120+ innings pitched last year and he was called up in late May. Emmet will probably be called upon to fill in injuries of the others. Kershaw indeed going through his ritual of back problems coming into the season, think he is a summer starter. Yamamoto as likely as any other starter in mlb to go the distance. Glasnow probably getting what happened this year, some minor IL stints throughout but a 2/3rd kinda season that goes into the post. Buehler…… hoping he’s the second coming of Nathan Eovaldi who threw 100+ innings of above average ball coming back from his second TJ.

I dunno if we’re going to see multiple 130+ inning starting pitchers, but we’re definitely going to see multiple 100+ up guys and that’s normally how the dodgers starting pitching is run. Liberal on resting guys/using the IL, pull up the farm mid season to rest the big stars and give the young guns a try out.

2023 kershaw threw the max of 130 and everyone else was between 100-120
2022 Tyler Anderson and Julio Urias wirh 170 and the rest a bunch of 60-110ip guys
2021 replace TA with Walker Buehler, otherwise the same as 2022

ETC. etc.

The dodgers got the bones of the building. They’ll fill it in with different pieces as the season goes along

To be clear, I don’t think this rotation is necessarily better than many the dodgers have had this decade, but it’s sure costing a lot more money.

Scherzer/Kershaw/Buehler/Bauer/Urias in 2021….
Kershaw/Ryu/Buehler/Hill/Maeda from 2019 was big.
Same boys but with prime Alex Wood and Yu Darvish instead of Buehler in 2017 also big.

2023 was definitely their worst rotation in a while though. Minus ohtani, this is more of a “back to the status quo”off-season for the dodgers rather than superteam off season; unless we consider the past 8 years of dodgers as a super team (which maybe is true as far as baseball goes). Of course adding Ohtani does crank it up another level in publicity and baseball equally, hence the outcry

BREAKING: Catcher Mitch Garver and the Seattle Mariners are in agreement on a two-year, $24 million contract, pending physical, sources tell ESPN.

Merry Christmas and happy holidays to him, Mariners fans who get to celebrate an unexpected gift and everyone else.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 25, 2023

Kevin Kiermaier back to Jays @Feinsand on it @BNightengale reports $10.5M

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 26, 2023

More Jays

SIGNED: #BlueJays have signed UT Isiah Kiner-Falefa to a two-year, $15M contract, with $1M worth of performance bonuses included.

— MLB Transaction Tracker (@MLBMovesTracker) December 27, 2023

white sox signed ... martin maldonado

so disappointing how little they seem to care about being even halfway decent

(xpost) Utility player who hits .250 with no power--he'll fit in just fine.

I assume he’s going to zobrist his way around

if you don’t know
why don’t you go
where fashion sits—

isiah kiner-falefa

That doesn’t scan, traitor hand

I think the joke is that it doesn’t scan. As in, he doesn’t fit.

giving me far too much credit

The jays already have three utility infielder types with below average bats (with two more in the minors). This IKF signing is weird af and no one gets it. The only advantage is slightly better glove and better speed; but hardly worth the money when they have a massive hole at 3b they have yet to fill (there’s no way they think he’s the answer at 3rd) (I pray to god they don’t at least)

whit merrifield replacement essentially, i think

New stat: WAMWR (Wins Above Whit Merrifield Replacement).

You guys aren't getting it, they signed a free agent away from the Yankees, we might have lost out on Ohtani but this signing means Toronto is still a DESTINATION for top free agents!! ....
....

No, sorry, I've got nothing here.

BREAKING: Right-hander Lucas Giolito and the Boston Red Sox are in agreement on a two-year, $38.5 million contract that includes an opt-out after the first season, sources tell ESPN.

Boston lands its first big signing of the winter. The question now is: Will there be more?

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 29, 2023

I’ll always root for giolito, he was basically the only white mlb player to express support for black lives matter. seems like a cool guy. also he’s mark frost’s nephew.

they should hand out free mitts to everyone sitting above the monster when he starts

The thing that you can say about Giolito and which is exactly one of the reasons they got him is that he will start every five days. His innings last season would have made a significant difference to the 2023 Red Sox precisely because of how strained the pen was and the whole collapse was a direct consequence of that. His splits last season after he a) got divorced around the ASB and b) got traded to the Angels and then waived and picked up by Cleveland in quick succession are notable. Deal itself is low risk & player is clearly betting on himself. Really interested to see what Andrew Bailey will do with him; that is, after all, exactly why they got him.

I’ll always root for giolito, he was basically the only white mlb player to express support for black lives matter. seems like a cool guy. also he’s mark frost’s nephew.

Happy #TwinPeaksDay from yours truly....Montana #InvitationToLove A pivotal role & the finest work of my short but consequential acting career. 🤦🏻 pic.twitter.com/2MauMnUCOo

— Rick Giolito (@RickGiolito) February 24, 2021

Lol J0rdan.
I hope it works out for him but yeah, Fenway a tough park for a pitcher to get their mojo back after giving up the most homers in mlb the year before. Stranger things have happened tho…..and there’s no way to go but up on the hr list!

This was the funniest shithousing I watched of the year and I just remembered the Red Sox are starting of their season in…Seattle!

some say when the moon is high in the sky, you can still see a seething giolito waiting for cabby to come back to the box until this very day pic.twitter.com/FOpUKpAEhD

— Sofie 🏳️‍🌈 (@sofieballgame) June 17, 2023

I remember this, so great

for the record i think this is a pretty decent shot for boston to take. the opt out makes it a bit less appealing but i’d still prob rather do this deal than the sonny gray one for example

Opt out a double edged sword but basically at worst it’s an overpay for a guy who will eat innings. Probably says a lot about where the SP market is as well but idc, let Henry crack open the wallet. Not exaggerating when I say that 150 ip from literally almost fucking anyone would have tipped them well over .500 because that collapse was related to the pen being cooked to death.

i’m not sure the sword points too sharply in the player’s direction unless in this case he left a gray-level deal on the table in order to try and rebuild his value and break the bank. but i do think pitching is so volatile that he could have another subpar season next year, feel like he needs to rebuild his value again, opt in to what is inherently a 1 year overpay for boston, and then be one of the top 15 or whatever SPs in baseball and return value on the deal. there’s just prob no way to get him at value next year unless he gets hurt, but then again if there was no way to sign him in the first place w/o the opt in i get how you’re giving to get. the scenario where this is some disaster is only if he eats innings w/ like a 5+ ERA for two years straight

I think based purely on his pre-divorce/upheaval stats from last year he should be due to be solid if not spectacular and yeah he’s got significant upside if he does at all well next year. I think the pitching free agency market is supposed to have more arms available but let’s be honest: everyone needs arms all the time

damn you’re locked in on his life, salute

fangraphs has him at 2.5 WAR for next year… not exactly sure what the price per WAR calculation is these days but if he lands close to that number i feel like both sides will be pretty happy with this deal

Yeah sorry the double edged sword bit was more like:

If he’s good he will opt out and might leave? Then you’re back looking for an arm.
If he’s bad he’ll stay, sad

Value of the contract isn’t really my concern it’s a total sellers market anyway. Obvs if he shoves that $18m he makes next year looks cheap. Really they need a higher end guy to pair with him and then his place looks a lot clearer.

What!!!!

BREAKING: The Atlanta Braves are acquiring seven-time All-Star Chris Sale in a trade with the Boston Red Sox, sources tell ESPN. Well-regarded infield prospect Vaughn Grissom is the return to Boston, which will send money with Sale, who waived his no-trade clause to join Atlanta

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 30, 2023

huh!

The deal: Chris Sale and $17 million to Atlanta for Vaughn Grissom, who has the full 6 years of team control remaining.

— Alex Speier (@alexspeier) December 30, 2023