Hot Stove 2023-2024

Jorge Soler to SFG - 3yrs/?$

career: .317/.417/.512 @ SFG

That’s a great get, the lineup was so bad last year. The roster has improved so much this offseason.

He has only 41 at-bats at Oracle Park, but has hit .317 with a .929 OPS and two homers in 41 at-bats there and is considered to have enough power to reach McCovey Cove, something no right-handed batter has ever done.

Soler was sort of the odd man out as far as the Cubs peak era a few years ago, vs the likes of Bryant, Baez, Schwarber, Contreras, Rizzo. I always liked him and he's been great in the postseason his whole career. i was happy to see him succeed elsewhere, especially that epic WS performance with the Braves.

My only question is do they intend to actually play him in the outfield cos Tom Murphy is surely going to DH a majority of the time when he plays? In that case they might move Conforto as rumoured.

Superutilityman Whit Merrifield and the Philadelphia Phillies are in agreement on a one-year, $8 million contract, sources tell ESPN.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) February 16, 2024

Destroys my theory that the Jays were trying to hoard every single utility infielder in the game so that, come deadline time, they could essentially hold whichever of the other 29 teams needed one hostage. Kind of like Homer Simpson and his sugar pile.

Interesting post from Baseball Reference's FB feed: Merrifield is one of only seven players ever with two seasons of 40 doubles and 40 stolen bases (Brian Roberts, Hanley Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, and Sisler/Speaker/Cobb the others). I wouldn't have thought that was so rare.

The seems like easily the best move the Red Sox have made this winter, I do not understand why KC would do this.

— Red Sox Stats (@redsoxstats) February 17, 2024

Trade news: The Kansas City Royals are acquiring right-handed reliever John Schreiber from the Boston Red Sox for minor league right-hander David Sandlin, sources tell ESPN. Royals get an arm for a pen that needed it, Sox get a pitching prospect with strikeout stuff.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) February 17, 2024

RIP Schreibs you were good but I also remember you getting cooked last season

Liam Hendriks deal with Red Sox:

$2M salary in 2024, $6M salary in 2025.

$12M mutual option or $2M buyout for 2026.

$10M on incentives in 2025. None in 2024.

— Chris Cotillo (@ChrisCotillo) February 20, 2024

I love him I love him I love him

Liam Hendricks lives up to his billing. Says he picked Boston in part because his wife loves the area and “everyone speaks like my (Australian) accent - no one pronounces their ‘ahhhs.’ “

— Sean McAdam (@Sean_McAdam) February 20, 2024

News: Shortstop Tim Anderson and the Miami Marlins are in agreement on a one-year, $5 million contract, pending physical, sources tell ESPN.

— Jesse Rogers (@JesseRogersESPN) February 22, 2024

i'm glad they went ahead w/ this. seems like a very worthy gamble to me

With Urshela signing, that’s all the serviceable free agents 3b off the market now outside of Champman. I would think something has to give soon with spring training starting (for Chappy and the other boras holdouts)

that's a great signing for the marlins. he was dogshit last year but $5m is nothing at all

Robert Murray said on Twitter that none of the “Boras four” are close to signing. This is an absurd situation. Are the players themselves not getting anxious? They should be getting familiar with their new teams by now.

Missing a couple of weeks of spring training is nothing compared with the big picture view of 6/150 or whatever they're asking for.

journalists get so petulant when no one provides grist for their mills. why didn't ohtani turn his free agency into a circus?! why is the stove so chilly, or the lead-up to the trade deadline so quiet?! these things are Bad For the Game!

(i suppose i might get pissy too if, in the absence of actual news, i had to write 'knowing what we know now, let's redo the 2014 draft!!')

probably also explains why every four years they keep talking up 'brokered convention'

in the absence of actual news, i had to write 'knowing what we know now, let's redo the 2014 draft!!'

I love "history revisited" stuff like like this! I'll take it over manufactured rumours posing as news any day.

revisiting history is cool! but coming to the conclusion that, in hindsight, mike trout should have been taken first overall in 2009 is no more insightful than reading off a b-ref page

if you want to explain *why* the pirates took tony sanchez at no. 4 instead, that might be interesting (although i won’t want to read it for personal reasons)

it was because Tony Sanchez is due for a big hit

BREAKING: Centerfielder Cody Bellinger and the Chicago Cubs are in agreement on a three-year, $80 million contract, sources tell ESPN. Bellinger will receive opt-outs after each of the first two years of the deal. Bellinger, 28, returns to the Cubs after a prolonged free agency.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) February 25, 2024

Wow

Cody Bellinger's salary on his deal with the Chicago Cubs will pay him $30 million this season, $30 million in 2025 (if he doesn't opt out after Year 1) and $20 million in 2026 (if he doesn't opt out after Year 2).

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) February 25, 2024

Good for the Cubs, not as good for Cody but still ya know, what are ya gonna do at this point? Allows him to keep his options wide open, and it seems clear that there weren't many buyers looking into him so you've got to take what you can get.

Mlbtr, who are not normally far from the mark, were predicting 12 years! Seven would have felt appropriate to me. Surprised to see just three tbh, but having opt outs every year helps make more sense. Wondering how disappointed Bellinger has to be and also wondering if this means the jays could bring Chapman back on a one or two year agreement

I’m not sure the Jays wanted Chapman back, but the Giants could still pick him up, he’d do well there.

Bellinger always a risk for a longer contract because the two good years preceded by two terrible ones, the AAV is pretty high & if the Yankees let Soto walk (doubtful but who knows who’ll be in on him) then you imagine they’d give Belli another look

this is a pretty amazing deal for bellinger imo, before last year it looked like he might never get another multi year contract in his life so guaranteeing $80m with the option to cash in beyond that if his resurgence is real is a pretty great outcome imo. i’m not sure i would’ve offered him much more than what he had to take last year tbh

Think most of the big free agents remaining have at least one obvious fit that doesn’t want them at the current price; the trick is getting them at the price that’s just a bit higher than the point rivals start calling again I guess. If he had been willing to accept $25m/year you’d certainly see other suitors drop back in.

Yeah he’s only 28, it’s a good deal for both. At worst, Wrigley is very kind to his hitting profile and he’s a superb glove, I’d imagine his floor is very very high for the Cubs compared to other teams in terms of risk.

I disagree that it’s an amazing deal. Beli had 1 bad year and 1 bang average year, both attributable to injury. He just had as good as a “prove it” year that one can get and he ends this off season with 80mil 3 years while Rafael Devers ends it with 313mil 10 years.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/rafael-devers/17350/stats?position=3B
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/cody-bellinger/15998/stats?position=1B/OF

I see nothing in those stats to indicate there should be a $233 million dollar gap between these two players. Belli even edges him out in war(yes yes by a margin of error).

Sorry bad communication there, I’m aware Devers was extended at the start of last year, but still, it’s a crazy difference in value these two players are getting. I don’t think Belli should have got a 300mil contract either, but a 200-250 mil 8-10 years is what I was thinking before the off season dragged out to the point that any interest in boras clients has obviously waned.

one bad year and one average year is not gonna get that big contract done. regardless of the cause. devers is so reliable - he basically has the same season, year after year

Higher ceiling for belli + bad year being directly attributable to a fluke injury caught on camera. They're not the same player, but their difference isn't so significant as to make 7 years 235mil imo

The fact that belli has more war than Devers with his negative war injury season speaks for itself. The highs are very high.

then what’s your explanation

Don't have one

well.. my explanation is that major league baseball teams value predictability and durability when putting together big long-term contracts over spiky high-ceiling dudes who may give you nothing for a couple of years

the other thing i think about with CoBel is that the history of 6'4"+ power hitters does not include a lot of stories about dudes staying good in their year 32+ seasons

It's a great deal for Bellinger. If he has another season even approaching last year, then he will opt out and get paid. In the worst case scenario he makes 80 Mil for being a .160 hitter again. The Cubs assume most of the risk -- either their best hitter walks at the end of the season (or perhaps the 2025 season) or they're stuck paying 80 Million to a terrible hitter. But considering the state of the NL Central (Brewers appear to be punting the season, Cards may not bounce back quickly, the Pirates are the Pirates, and the Reds, I don't know, can they pitch?) then the Cubs might be looking to win with him now and aren't thinking much about next year.

tracer OTM, from a team’s standpoint, bellinger’s bad years add more risk and worry than the comfort of his great years. With a huge contract it’s more “what have you done lately” than “let’s look at his overall career and shrug off those bad years because of X”

Trying to think of the best comparable for a volatile player like Bellinger signing a long term deal

eric hosmer (not really, but kinda)

Gary Matthews Jr comes to mind. but he didn't have nearly the great first few years Cody did. after one amazing standout season he got a five year deal from the Angels that everyone knew they'd regret; eventually getting salary dumped to the mets three years in. and then released

Chris Davis? (sob)

jason heyward, maybe? similar to bellinger in that they brought elite defensive value aging into 30s, although heyward's hitting ceiling never approached bellinger's of course

cody wouldn't be so volatile if he wasn't so stoned all the time

someone had to say it, sorry

This is probably a shaky fit, but: Fred Lynn signed with the Orioles for (I checked) $6.8 million/5 years in 1984. His career had been pretty erratic up till then, and I think that probably made him one of the highest-paid players in the game at the time. (Best yearly salary for 1984--I checked!--was Mike Schmidt at $1.99 million.)

Lynn was 32, which was a little older.

Heyward is a really interesting comp with your mentioned caveats - both have time with Cubs/Dodgers, both considered to be great clubhouse/glue guys. The latter won’t get you signed on its own but it definitely helps when you have your best friend, who just happens to be Freddie Freeman, advocating for you to be picked up. And didn’t Heyward have a good season last year?

I wonder if Cubs fans think of Heyward’s contract the way Giants fans think of the Zito contract post-2012. His rain delay speech is credited by basically every former member of that team of being the reason they rallied and won game 7.

I guess your main concern with Bellinger is probably the peripherals - if you look at his baseball savant page, there’s some kind of alarming-looking data on his ability to hit fastballs. But he’s only 28, I don’t blame the Cubs for wanting him back, and for the guarantees in the contract.

Sorry, I should say I understand the guarantees in the contract.

heyward didn't have an injury that hurt his hitting either, did he? he just kind of ... stopped hitting (though he did manage to gradually improve over the past few years)

Heyward was entering his supposed prime when he signed with the Cubs, and he just happened to fall off a cliff as a hitter (though with his defense he was certainly a plus piece.) i think they were hoping he'd turn into a 30 HR, solid average, amazing defense guy. he just had a bad swing, though.

the Bellinger deal is perfect for Cody. idk what one would have expected him to ideally get, his hitting was awful to "not-good" for three seasons, and last year wasn't a return to his MVP season, it was just a step forward. the question is whether or not it was an indicator of a return to his MVP level, or just a perfect situation where everything fell into place to result in that stat line. there are questions about how much last year as due to good luck. if he faceplants, he's set for life anyway. if he tears it up even more, he gets to tear up the deal as well and get himself a couple hundred mill.

Trying to think of the best comparable for a volatile player like Bellinger signing a long term deal

Barry Zito!