How do we get Taylor Swift into fantasy baseball? Your 2024 ILX Fantasy Thread! (also, there is an opening for a new manger!)

i remember this time last year i was wondering if i had a curse on my pitchers; and then the Alek Manoah debacle did not help that feeling. RIP to him after one year of being a keeper.
so here's this years likely picks for (the soon to be renamed) Newcombes On de Blok:

Gunnar Henderson (22)
Shane McClanahan (26)
Jesus Luzardo (26)
Ozzie Albies (27)
Bryan Reynolds (29)

likely keepers for Giolito Shuffle (also due for a name change - i almost talked myself into keeping Giolito and hoping he could at least be playable in Boston but then remembered he's about to age out of keeper status anyways)

Adley Rutschmann (26)
Emmanual Clase (26)
Luis Robert (26)
Ke’Bryan Hayes (27)
TJ Friedl (28)

I’m already having second thoughts about McClanahan, since he’ll be out for most of the season. I don’t have the best options tho, aside from hoping Manoah can return to form (but holy shit his 2023 was a disaster). Munoz is the only non disaster option, but kind of a waste using a pick on a reliever.

i will be jettisoning jeremy pena back into the universe and keeping sal frelick instead.

Ok. I’ll probably remember this one since I had frelick on my short list to target later in the draft

my picks for Send Nootbaar. feel like Lawlar has a high ceiling for stupid puns.

Jordan Lawlar 21
Logan Gilbert 26
Austin Riley 26
Ian Happ 29
Josh Hader 29

Ohtani Dancer in My Hand:

Michael Harris II (23)
(Future Red Sox Superstar) Triston Casas (24)
Bo Bichette (26)
Logan Webb (27)
Shohei Ohtani (batter) (29)

Def playing the long game, drafting Lawlar last year!

giolito injury news has made this lineup for giolito shuffle a lock:

Adley Rutschmann (26)
Emmanual Clase (26)
Luis Robert (26)
Ke’Bryan Hayes (27)
TJ Friedl (28)

have we forgotten about the opening series in Korea on March 20th? seems like we might want to conduct the draft earlier.

i had, yes. ugh. the sunday 17th is not doable for me. would have to be Sat 16th, or in the evening Mon/Tuesday. i don't want to push it too far up incase someone doesn't see the date change in time.

looking at the probable starters, Yamamoto and Glasnow(?) vs Darvish and Musgrove probably? I'd feel bad about anyone missing a start with one of their SP keepers, but that doesn't look likely. for the hitters it's not so bad to miss two games out of 162, but maybe some LA/SD owners can weigh in on preference

Literally any weekday evening works way better for me than the proposed draft day in the OP.

looks like i can make the games count retroactively (tho i cannot find how to do this in my commish tools right now):
https://ca.help.yahoo.com/kb/SLN6317.html

xpost. noted.

Also I'm still finalizing my last 2 keepers. Need to monitor some spring training data before I make that call tho...

i'm completely ok with the 16th, it would just feel weird to me to conduct the draft with a couple of games already in the can, even if we can retroactively count the stats. idk how much it matters to anyone else obv.

This happened before (maybe when I was commish?) and there was a mid-tier player who went off in an exhib game played internationally played before the draft and they ended up going a couple rounds earlier than anticipated. Seeing as this is rotisserie (ie, not points or H2H), I don't think those games are enough to move the needle.

I’m fine with the retroactive stats solution, but if it gets moved my preference is Saturday > Monday > Tuesday. I’m pretty open that week.

lets see if this works...

https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/JPSW77D

i only just now noticed the spelling mistake in the thread title

(and now do you finally get my youtube ref?)

also more importantly are you replacing 2B with another offensive stat?

as much as i would like to, nothing else looks all that great to use in it's place; and i'd like to keep the amount of stats the way they are for balance between pitching and hitting

What was the argument for 2Bs instead of XBHs? Overvalues HRs but undervalues 3Bs?

Or a negative OFF stat? Ks is a nice equalizer.

(I think I used GIDPs one year as well lol)

more or less. i think a few people thought home runs were just too overpowered with xbh

xpost

GIDP was kiboshed because it punished cleanup type hitters with lead foots hitting a head of them

Yeah my rationale was that guys who hit with runners on get more RBI chances so GIDPs a nice way to balance that out for guys who play on weaker teams who do not have the luxury of RBI opps.

I also remember a year where we drafted after Opening Day in Japan one of those years, and it didn't really make a difference? But I'm fine with moving up the draft by a week.

sorry i've been not as attentive as i should be! i am in full on winging it mode, but i need to get my list of keepers. also i submitted to surveymonkey (bow down to the one you serve) for the draft dates, i'll do my best to make whichever date so i don't get autodrafted!

we're at 9 answers so far and it's weirdly very interesting lol

baseball fans, tell me what to do. i am faced with an agonizing choice for my 27+ keepers.

one of them is cody bellinger, who is definitely going to be MVP in 2024, chance of regression = 0.0000000001%
the other? JACK FLAHERTY OR AMED ROSARIO
goddammit

on the other side, i will obviously keep Eury Perez. then, i must pick 2 of francisco alvarez, lars nootbaar, hunter greene, and everybody's favorite little big guy who runs fast, alejandro kirk. i'm going with lars nootbaar just because i like to root for the home team, and i've seen him do some very athletic things so i believer in his potential. so
FRANCISCO ALVAREZ OR HUNTER GREENE

speaking from experience, get off of Jack Flaherty's wild ride asap

I’m smelling a comeback player of the year award for amed rosario!

smell the rosarios!

formerly A Moon-Shaped Pujols, now obviously:

Honey Nut Chouri◎s
20 CHOURIO
26 LODOLO
26 HOERNER
29 AROZARENA
29 HELSLEY

ok - 11 respondents. think it's safe to call this one...

9 vs 2 in terms of picking a new date.
Most preferred date was a tie between the Sat 16th and Tues 18th; and a tie between Tues 18th and the OG date for what most people found workable.
Highest rage score, after the "none" option: Sat 16th.

So looks like our new date will be Tuesday the 18th starting at 7:30 est. apologies to the two managers that had that date as their least favourite option.

I will change the league setting shortly; and anyone with outstanding picks, please get them in my mid week next week.
i should prolly get a mod to edit the initial post as well.

Tues the 19th?

FFS. yes. Tuesday the 19th. sorry about that.

trying to do too much this morning.

apologies to the two managers that had that date as their least favourite option.

if i finish in last again this season i'm going to blame it on this!! ;) ;)

no worries, and there's a chance i could join for at least part of it (aka do the draft in the background of a band practice lol)

could always do a little pre-ranking (esp if there are young guys you'd like to target) and then join in part way to fix whatever mess the auto draft left you with.

i was the other person who ranked that at as my least favorite option but it's OK, should still be able to join

appreciate all efforts made to accommodate the rescheduled draft

good news - looks like Votto No Get Enemy will live on under the stewardship of clemenza! i think this might be his first foray into fantasy nerdball?

That spreadsheet looks like hieroglyphics to me, but I'll tentatively give it go. No guarantee I'll last. Thanks for the invitation.

baseball fans, tell me what to do. i am faced with an agonizing choice for my 27+ keepers.

one of them is cody bellinger, who is definitely going to be MVP in 2024, chance of regression = 0.0000000001%
the other? JACK FLAHERTY OR AMED ROSARIO
goddammit

on the other side, i will obviously keep Eury Perez. then, i must pick 2 of francisco alvarez, lars nootbaar, hunter greene, and everybody's favorite little big guy who runs fast, alejandro kirk. i'm going with lars nootbaar just because i like to root for the home team, and i've seen him do some very athletic things so i believer in his potential. so
FRANCISCO ALVAREZ OR HUNTER GREENE

EURY PEREZ
HUNTER GREENE
FRANCISO ALVAREZ
AMED "MVP" ROSARIO
CODY BELLINGER

fuck, oops, sorry for including that text at the top! i meant to delete before posting my keepers:

EURY PEREZ
HUNTER GREENE
FRANCISO ALVAREZ
AMED "MVP" ROSARIO
CODY BELLINGER

lars nootbaar has fractured his ribs. i am sorry lars.

clemenza, i predict that you'll have a great time doing this, if you participate! and if nothing else you can race me for the cellar

The Autodraft bungled my SP (by not bothering to draft anybody who wasn't injured or NA). That's been the story of my season. My offense should continue to be good if most guys are healthy, but grabbing Ranger Suarez off the scrap heap the day after the draft basically saved my ass. A few more decent SP pickups here and there have kept in contention, but I don't suppose anyone wants to trade me a front line SP?

Have kept *me* in contention . .

just noticed you have the top two hitters and the top SP!

the top SP rankings is a really weird mix

Blockbuster trade in the offing.

(I'm so low in the standings, I won't vote.)

Ah yes, the best player in the league for a guy who just got absolutely manhandled by *checks notes* the worst team in the league and who will probably be shut down/workload limited by the ASB...

I just noticed that Sale start this morning, when I was checking into Reynaldo Lopez...think I'll write a book called Baseball Is a Funny Game.

Def quite the haul for sale.

Sale was NL pitcher of the month for May. Is there anyone clearly better?

The start vs Oakland is just one start (hopefully).

There is always a higher injury risk with pitchers (and Sale missed most of two years due to injury) but Judge has had his share of injuries too.

The main point is that I don't have the pitching to win this year. If Sale can give me 100 dominant innings then I have a chance. On offense I have some options to offset the loss of Judge. But my pitching is a clusterf***.

Wondering what I could get for Imanaga now…

a great comparison, given that he also has an innings limit this season and had a very bad start last time up. but i would still be happy to have him on my team, personally.

i'm not going to weigh in on what i thought was a reasonably fair trade offer, except to say that i think a lot of times people look at the trades by comparing the individual players, but without looking at the needs of each team involved in the trade (as NTBT alluded to). when i'm looking to set up a trade, i look for what i can offer and then i look at which owner NEEDS what i can offer and is in a position where the trade would make a difference to their success. then i look at what they have that i want.

Not sure of the etiquette, I tried to jump in with my own offer for Judge this morning. As the rest of you know, can't do that while the trade's on the table.

The replacement level for pitchers is so much lower. Crochet and Reynaldo Lopez have a higher fWAR than Sale, and I picked them off the scrap heap. Far less likely that I sign someone who beats out a healthy Judge this year.

well, when we see the trade, it's already been accepted and done - and generally they always go through (you're only supposed to vote against trades if you think something is amiss, but since our league is a little weird sometimes managers will vote against one sided trades). if you really want Judge you'll have to try and get it from Naked Ragans after the trade, but good luck with that!

xpost

I can throw in some cash, though, right?

cumulative bWAR/fWAR 2020-2024

Chris Sale: 4.2/5.0
Aaron Judge: 26.1/26.4

As of today, Judge's fantasy value in our league this season is 160% of Sale's (who isn't as valuable as even someone like Skubal who is keeper-eligible and will be pitching in Aug/Sep).

Will bookmark this post for a ~mind-bending~ post-season analysis.

But seriously I really do believe we need to add a negative stat for offensive players (Ks instead of 2Bs?) to make the equity of batters vs. pitchers a bit more even. Right now there are only 2 pitchers in the our league's top 10 players (Suarez & Skubal)...

(...Sale is currently rated #20 overall)

whoops wrong league, in ours Sale is rated #14th overall

If it were me, I would trade Judge for ~minimum~ a top 30 <26yo player if I thought I was in contention.

And FULL DISCLOSURE, I was offered Sale for the very lukewarm (31yo) Teoscar Hernandez a couple weeks ago and passed on him because I'd prefer a player that's gonna be playing after the ASB (god willing)...

The fact that NTBT landed Judge is a showcase for his sales techniques and ability to close the deal. Kudos!

who is a top 30 <26 player who would have dramatically improved NTBT's pitching numbers (ie what he needs to improve to contend)? paul skenes, who likely also has an innings limit and whose arm will probably explode in the next six months?

Obvs most of us feel Sale is too much of a health risk, but I hope notime doesn’t feel over dunked on here. I also hope he’ll enjoy all the trade offers he’s about to get!

As noted in my earlier post, I'd have tried to land Skubal:

26yo, #2 pitcher overall in our league (will probably be #1 by Sunday), #7 player overall.

skubal is 27, turning 28 this year
also the team with skubal is only four points behind NTBT in the rankings, so you'd have to really think about the value in aiding close competition. fair enough though.

i'm trying to be chill about this, but this is at least the second time that Steve Shasta has claimed that a trade i made was dramatically uneven in my favor, and at a certain point it starts to feel like i'm being accused of something and/or other players are being dissuaded from trading with me, which i don't love

~just a bit of fun, so lets be cool~

I'm heading out of town for ~3 weeks with sporadic internet access so feel free to enjoy a Steve-Shasta-free board in my absence, alas I will not be available to Judge any fire-Sale trades.

Also apologies for my multiple inaccuracies today, a natural by-product of wrapping up work projects and packing. ✌️✌️

I quote Ball Four way too often, I know, but this is all reminding me (will have to reconstruct from memory) of Bouton asking someone for the latest gossip, and the response is something like "Just the usual Norm-Miller-for-anybody-in-the-league rumours."

ok i will be cool

I'm last in saves and have (I think) a surplus of starting pitching...open to a trade!

(saves + holds)

Those too, yes...I'm also good in HR/RBI/OBP but last in doubles (which doesn't really make sense to me--doubles and HR often go together) and SB; open to something there, too.

No offense taken Shasta! I know I'm assuming a larger risk in this deal. It's not a real-life trade (obviously it doesn't happen in real life). It's a fantasy trade that attempts to fix the most obvious weakness of my team -- starting pitching. I didn't need a keeper in return, I need to win now. And if it doesn't work out, I haven't mortgaged my future, Judge isn't a keeper.

I'm usually risk-averse with trades and since people understandably value their keepers a lot in our league, complicated trades involving keepers usually don't happen. And if I waited too long, I'll be too far behind in the key pitching stats for it to matter.

The last big trade I made in our league was in 2021 -- Vlad Jr for Freddie Freeman, Hyun Jin Ryu, and Kendall Graveman. Vlad had seven more years of keeper eligibility ... but, I won the league. From the time the trade was made until the end of the season, he and Freeman had almost the same level of (MVP-level) production. Ryu and Graveman gave me the pitching depth I didn't have at the time (subtract Ryu's wins and QS's and Graveman's holds and I don't win) and Vlad hasn't turned out to be a generational player. Can't say I regret that trade either.

it's a landmark day, i actually have an open IL slot

that will not last. trust me.

i did intend to bump the IL spots down to three post covid, but wow are injuries ever high right now.

Ready to do what my hometown team is hedging on: turn the page and move on. If you're a contender looking for starting pitching, I'd trade Berrios and/or Kikuchi for a decent keeper.

Sent you a message via the league chat 👀

now that's a trade.

I hope I haven't overrated Royce Lewis. He's just back from an injury, but he looks to be a good bet for the next few seasons. I remember him killing the Jays in the ALDS last year. Obviously, I've given up on this year.

it's fair for both teams

keep Clemenza, that's a solid transaction for both parties

keep it up* i should say

both Sale and Judge performing well post-trade for their new teams as well!

I think there's a chance that Royce Lewis winds up being pretty damn valuable the rest of the season, so it could be an even swap, but I like him more long-term as a great star keeper than I do him remaining off the IL this year and being fully reliable.

Welcome aboard, Royce Lewis! (3-5, double, HR.)