Hot Stove 2023-2024

journalists get so petulant when no one provides grist for their mills. why didn't ohtani turn his free agency into a circus?! why is the stove so chilly, or the lead-up to the trade deadline so quiet?! these things are Bad For the Game!

(i suppose i might get pissy too if, in the absence of actual news, i had to write 'knowing what we know now, let's redo the 2014 draft!!')

probably also explains why every four years they keep talking up 'brokered convention'

in the absence of actual news, i had to write 'knowing what we know now, let's redo the 2014 draft!!'

I love "history revisited" stuff like like this! I'll take it over manufactured rumours posing as news any day.

revisiting history is cool! but coming to the conclusion that, in hindsight, mike trout should have been taken first overall in 2009 is no more insightful than reading off a b-ref page

if you want to explain *why* the pirates took tony sanchez at no. 4 instead, that might be interesting (although i won’t want to read it for personal reasons)

it was because Tony Sanchez is due for a big hit

BREAKING: Centerfielder Cody Bellinger and the Chicago Cubs are in agreement on a three-year, $80 million contract, sources tell ESPN. Bellinger will receive opt-outs after each of the first two years of the deal. Bellinger, 28, returns to the Cubs after a prolonged free agency.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) February 25, 2024

Wow

Cody Bellinger's salary on his deal with the Chicago Cubs will pay him $30 million this season, $30 million in 2025 (if he doesn't opt out after Year 1) and $20 million in 2026 (if he doesn't opt out after Year 2).

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) February 25, 2024

Good for the Cubs, not as good for Cody but still ya know, what are ya gonna do at this point? Allows him to keep his options wide open, and it seems clear that there weren't many buyers looking into him so you've got to take what you can get.

Mlbtr, who are not normally far from the mark, were predicting 12 years! Seven would have felt appropriate to me. Surprised to see just three tbh, but having opt outs every year helps make more sense. Wondering how disappointed Bellinger has to be and also wondering if this means the jays could bring Chapman back on a one or two year agreement

I’m not sure the Jays wanted Chapman back, but the Giants could still pick him up, he’d do well there.

Bellinger always a risk for a longer contract because the two good years preceded by two terrible ones, the AAV is pretty high & if the Yankees let Soto walk (doubtful but who knows who’ll be in on him) then you imagine they’d give Belli another look

this is a pretty amazing deal for bellinger imo, before last year it looked like he might never get another multi year contract in his life so guaranteeing $80m with the option to cash in beyond that if his resurgence is real is a pretty great outcome imo. i’m not sure i would’ve offered him much more than what he had to take last year tbh

Think most of the big free agents remaining have at least one obvious fit that doesn’t want them at the current price; the trick is getting them at the price that’s just a bit higher than the point rivals start calling again I guess. If he had been willing to accept $25m/year you’d certainly see other suitors drop back in.

Yeah he’s only 28, it’s a good deal for both. At worst, Wrigley is very kind to his hitting profile and he’s a superb glove, I’d imagine his floor is very very high for the Cubs compared to other teams in terms of risk.

I disagree that it’s an amazing deal. Beli had 1 bad year and 1 bang average year, both attributable to injury. He just had as good as a “prove it” year that one can get and he ends this off season with 80mil 3 years while Rafael Devers ends it with 313mil 10 years.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/rafael-devers/17350/stats?position=3B
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/cody-bellinger/15998/stats?position=1B/OF

I see nothing in those stats to indicate there should be a $233 million dollar gap between these two players. Belli even edges him out in war(yes yes by a margin of error).

Sorry bad communication there, I’m aware Devers was extended at the start of last year, but still, it’s a crazy difference in value these two players are getting. I don’t think Belli should have got a 300mil contract either, but a 200-250 mil 8-10 years is what I was thinking before the off season dragged out to the point that any interest in boras clients has obviously waned.

one bad year and one average year is not gonna get that big contract done. regardless of the cause. devers is so reliable - he basically has the same season, year after year

Higher ceiling for belli + bad year being directly attributable to a fluke injury caught on camera. They're not the same player, but their difference isn't so significant as to make 7 years 235mil imo

The fact that belli has more war than Devers with his negative war injury season speaks for itself. The highs are very high.

then what’s your explanation

Don't have one

well.. my explanation is that major league baseball teams value predictability and durability when putting together big long-term contracts over spiky high-ceiling dudes who may give you nothing for a couple of years

the other thing i think about with CoBel is that the history of 6'4"+ power hitters does not include a lot of stories about dudes staying good in their year 32+ seasons

It's a great deal for Bellinger. If he has another season even approaching last year, then he will opt out and get paid. In the worst case scenario he makes 80 Mil for being a .160 hitter again. The Cubs assume most of the risk -- either their best hitter walks at the end of the season (or perhaps the 2025 season) or they're stuck paying 80 Million to a terrible hitter. But considering the state of the NL Central (Brewers appear to be punting the season, Cards may not bounce back quickly, the Pirates are the Pirates, and the Reds, I don't know, can they pitch?) then the Cubs might be looking to win with him now and aren't thinking much about next year.

tracer OTM, from a team’s standpoint, bellinger’s bad years add more risk and worry than the comfort of his great years. With a huge contract it’s more “what have you done lately” than “let’s look at his overall career and shrug off those bad years because of X”

Trying to think of the best comparable for a volatile player like Bellinger signing a long term deal

eric hosmer (not really, but kinda)

Gary Matthews Jr comes to mind. but he didn't have nearly the great first few years Cody did. after one amazing standout season he got a five year deal from the Angels that everyone knew they'd regret; eventually getting salary dumped to the mets three years in. and then released

Chris Davis? (sob)

jason heyward, maybe? similar to bellinger in that they brought elite defensive value aging into 30s, although heyward's hitting ceiling never approached bellinger's of course

cody wouldn't be so volatile if he wasn't so stoned all the time

someone had to say it, sorry

This is probably a shaky fit, but: Fred Lynn signed with the Orioles for (I checked) $6.8 million/5 years in 1984. His career had been pretty erratic up till then, and I think that probably made him one of the highest-paid players in the game at the time. (Best yearly salary for 1984--I checked!--was Mike Schmidt at $1.99 million.)

Lynn was 32, which was a little older.

Heyward is a really interesting comp with your mentioned caveats - both have time with Cubs/Dodgers, both considered to be great clubhouse/glue guys. The latter won’t get you signed on its own but it definitely helps when you have your best friend, who just happens to be Freddie Freeman, advocating for you to be picked up. And didn’t Heyward have a good season last year?

I wonder if Cubs fans think of Heyward’s contract the way Giants fans think of the Zito contract post-2012. His rain delay speech is credited by basically every former member of that team of being the reason they rallied and won game 7.

I guess your main concern with Bellinger is probably the peripherals - if you look at his baseball savant page, there’s some kind of alarming-looking data on his ability to hit fastballs. But he’s only 28, I don’t blame the Cubs for wanting him back, and for the guarantees in the contract.

Sorry, I should say I understand the guarantees in the contract.

heyward didn't have an injury that hurt his hitting either, did he? he just kind of ... stopped hitting (though he did manage to gradually improve over the past few years)

Heyward was entering his supposed prime when he signed with the Cubs, and he just happened to fall off a cliff as a hitter (though with his defense he was certainly a plus piece.) i think they were hoping he'd turn into a 30 HR, solid average, amazing defense guy. he just had a bad swing, though.

the Bellinger deal is perfect for Cody. idk what one would have expected him to ideally get, his hitting was awful to "not-good" for three seasons, and last year wasn't a return to his MVP season, it was just a step forward. the question is whether or not it was an indicator of a return to his MVP level, or just a perfect situation where everything fell into place to result in that stat line. there are questions about how much last year as due to good luck. if he faceplants, he's set for life anyway. if he tears it up even more, he gets to tear up the deal as well and get himself a couple hundred mill.

Trying to think of the best comparable for a volatile player like Bellinger signing a long term deal

Barry Zito!

The St. Louis Cardinals are signing Brandon Crawford, sources tell The Athletic. The move brings needed veteran shortstop depth behind Masyn Winn, with Tommy Edman's status for Opening Day unclear.

News here, more to come: https://t.co/gt0tBtsy3s

— Katie Woo (@katiejwoo) February 26, 2024

Superutilityman Kiké Hernandez and the Los Angeles Dodgers are nearing a one-year contract, sources tell ESPN. The deal would come on the heels of Manuel Margot trade to Minnesota being finalized. The trade will include cash going from the Dodgers to Twins, according to sources.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) February 26, 2024

Dodgers just cannot stay away from their favourite super utility man. Was kinda excited to see what Margot could do at the ravine tho

Every fandom gets their luis sojo

Red Sox in agreement with CJ Cron, per source.

— Chris Cotillo (@ChrisCotillo) March 1, 2024

https://t.co/huTA85w3B8 it's extremely hard for RHH to hit CF and RF HR in Fenway

— Red Sox Stats (@redsoxstats) March 1, 2024

Dodgers’ Kiké Hernández alludes to collusion in free agency

Seems weird to say that when his two highest paid teammates were flying cross country for literal months driving up their own pay by leveraging the demand from other teams, and one of them gave a deal to same team to stack a roster around him…some free agents aren’t in high demand full stop and others simply aren’t getting what they’re after. Snell was reported to be asking for $270m for 9 years, not that many teams that could pay that want to (0 at this count). I heard the Yankees made him an offer before they signed Stroman but at this stage taking on Snell on even an shorter contract with higher aav for example when they are over the highest tax threshold means they’re paying double for him. That’s an ask.

JD Martinez turned down $20m from SF by the way, that’s entirely on him, not “collusion”.

i don't know much about the business side of baseball but it seems like both things could be true: i'm sure some players have an unrealistic idea of their value at this moment, but i also would not be surprised if there was some form of collusion happening.

Probably the real issue for veteran players from owners is the increased speed that young players are being allowed to come up and stick from the minors, even if they struggle. The fact that owners can pay those guys almost nothing for years by comparison is the real issue. Brandon Crawford isn’t in SF because SF pushed all their chips in on Luciano, for example (and Crawford was terrible).

Snell for nine(!) years at $270 million(!!) -- it's nice to dream big and i guess it only takes one sucker. weird to say that about a two-time Cy winner he's dancing on a knife's edge, feel like he could tilt over into an annual 4.50 ERA guy vv fast.

I mean you can’t blame him for asking for it after his year especially with the lack of arms on the FA market but equally it’s a lot for a guy who doesn’t really post innings and who’s either Cy young winner or zero Cy votes in the career.

his stuff is good but those walks, yikes. he's not early Randy Johnson in that respect, but he's got to work on that. he needs a sorcerer of a pitching coach to help him out. i'd imagine he's going to get closer to 6/160 in the end.

i think it’s prob impossible to pull apart how much team behavior from the last 3-4 years is true collusion vs a sorta de facto collusion wherein teams are just “accepting” that the current structure of baseball highly incentivizes calling players up as early as possible when they’re cheap, signing them to long term under market deals asap and not really paying anyone except 3-5 guys across the league each year when they hit free agency at age 29. i’m not even sure there’s even that meaningful of a distinction, like you could certainly look at the management side of any union dispute — but especially one where the “management” is 30 separate entities — as a sort of open collusion against paying the other side what they deserve. the issue is really that the MLB union is so disparate and weak that i really don’t think they could ever organize to meaningfully change the overall structure of team control, free agency etc

i know that the adley rutschmans of the world who get called up early and perform really well and don’t sign immediate 10 year extensions are now being given more rope in terms of getting to FA earlier & stuff but that is still solving for a pretty narrow band of outcomes

Adley Rutschman maybe a bad example as he’s 26 this year and he may play another ten years at catcher or he may transition to first base after a few years, great bat but you can never really tell how long catchers will last.

I think the guaranteed money thing is so tempting for players, like they can hold out for free agency but so few of them make it that far comparatively and there’s always injuries that can slow or end your career prematurely. Some of those Braves deals are ridiculous for the players they have, but again, that’s a choice they made for guaranteed financial security.

Next offseason is going to be a lot more interesting because the free agents hitting the market are going to be higher quality and assuming the Yankees don’t extend Soto before then, someone’s paying him half a billion.

what would the free agent market of the last 2-3 seasons have looked like if the padres had not had a dying owner willing to spend his fortune — up to the point of borrowing money — on trying to win a title before he passed?

https://Twitter.com/Feinsand/status/1763791356017709259?s=20

Matt Chapman has agreed to a three-year, $54 million contract with the Giants, per source. The deal includes opt outs after each of the first two seasons. Chapman will earn $20 million in 2024, $18 million in 2025, and $16 million in 2026. @JonHeyman was on it.

— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) March 2, 2024