Rank 20 active players on potential HOF induction

i dunno about piazza, given his defensive shortcomings. his gaudy offensive numbers as a catcher strike me like the nfl types who praise shannon sharpe for his offensive stats as a tight end.

6) Roberto Alomar
4) Barry Bonds (just curious: what do y'all think a roid bombshell would do?)
1) Roger Clemens
8) Tom Glavine
Juan Gonzalez
14) Ken Griffey, Jr.
2) Rickey Henderson
5) Randy Johnson
7) Barry Larkin
3) Greg Maddux
12) Pedro Martinez
15) Fred McGriff
18) Mike Mussina
9) Rafael Palmeiro
14) Mike Piazza
13) Alex Rodriguez
11) Gary Sheffield
10) Sammy Sosa
16) Frank Thomas
17) Larry Walker

-one easily forgets (at least i did) the toronto juggernaut that mcgriff powered...alomar was on those teams, too, no?

well he was player of the '90s, 400-400 and multiple mvp winner PRIOR to any steroid allegations.

Oddly enough, Rickey was a member on one of those Toronto teams.

If hard evidence comes up on Bonds for the steroids, it could turn into the exact same situation as Rose, hall of famer on the field but won't be allowed in.

for the record...all the revisionist history about rose not being that good anyways is shit. did he stick around too long? yes. but come on, man.

eh, just one man's opinion.

(i also kind of lump juangone and sosa in to the same class, though were it not for his health, gonzalez would be way bigger than sosa, i think)

I saw a recent interview with Jr. and Harold Reynolds asked him if he belonged in the HOF. Griffey played it off modestly "That's not my decision, I can only control what I do" etc. but Reynolds kept on him and Griffey countered with "Look at the numbers".

So Leee, take a look, you might be surprised how he matches up.

And re: Bonds -- he was also a virtual lock even before he got huge.

would anyone else be surprised if he never hit more than 40 again? granted, science is always one step ahead of regulation, but this thg business will be interesting for the power side of the game.

Some guys who have been ignored, but stand at least as good a chance as Larkin - Biggio and Bagwell.

Roger Clemens—The best power pitcher career since Seaver. His late career playoff success and those Cy Youngs added a star power a starting pitcher hasn’t had in a LONG time.

Barry Bonds-- Yadda yadda yadda…if hard evidence ever comes out on the roids, he might end up outside with Rose. No matter what, Bonds is going to be a controversial hall of famer, which probably is ok with him.

Randy Johnson—The most dominating left handed starter since Carlton. Won’t win 300 or get the gaudy numbers (except Ks), but the way he pitched in that Series against the Yanks signed his ticket.

Rickey Henderson-- The best leadoff hitter ever. Rickey luster is a bit weird, as he has played for over ten years beyond his peak. Rickey also likes to talk about Rickey. When he was in his prime, the guy was an absolute FREAK of nature.

Greg Maddux-- 300 wins and about as consistent a career as you can get. Winning a World Series in Chicago would make him legendary, if he gets a big win. He has the kind of pitching arm and attitude that could maintain being a good working pitcher well into his 40s, if he does that, he might win over 350 games, which puts him in company with the really big guys.

Close:

Tom Glavine- I think you have to consider Glavine one of the best starters of the past 25 years, but I think how he will be remembered is based on how he does in the next couple of seasons. A couple of 8-14 years might cloud the waters a bit, he still would probably have the resume, but it might take a few years.

Roberto Alomar- He will play long enough to get 3000 hits, but the sportswriters will never forget him spitting on that ump. He’ll probably get in, especially if he rings up 3k hits, which is very possible.

Rafael Palmeiro-- If he continues to be consistent, the guy is going to end up over 3k hits and perhaps 600 HRs. That is a mind boggling career for someone who is best known for hocking Viagra. Palmeiro has never been a force in the playoffs or really a major star, which will be a tag on his career.

Hard to Call:

Barry Larkin- Take out Cal Ripken, Ernie Banks and A-Rod and the shortstop position is usually judged much different than any other position, it usually known for solid defense. Good news! Larkin has three gold gloves and would have one more if is wasn’t for Ozzie Smith. Good news! The guy is a classic star who played his entire career (until probably this summer when the Reds dump him) in his home town and even won a world series. Bad news! How much of this will be remembered six years after he retires? I definitely think he is a hall of famer, but will sportswriters in Seattle or Florida? I’m sure the vets committee will never forget him as a player. Larkin is a class player.

Fred McGriff- The guy is pretty classy and was a good power hitter before baseball’s numbers got all funky. He probably is a hall of famer, especially if he gets 500 dingers, but he might be a guy that will have to wait a while.

Sammy Sosa-- Sosa has had a run of hall of fame numbers playing in one of the games more storied clubs. If he continues to play well for another few years, his stats are going to be freaky. If he wins a world series with the Cubs, it will be remembered as long as baseball is played. If it comes out that he is on the roids that and the corked bat are going to be remembered. I think he will lose hall votes just for the corked bat and the appearance of maybe being on performance enhancing drugs.

Too Early to Tell:

Mike Piazza-- He is the best hitting catcher ever. (Not the best catcher ever, that is probably Bench who could hit with more power and in his prime was as good as it gets with the glove.) That being said, unlike most hall of fame catchers, he isn’t that great with the arm, especially in the past few years. Piazza really wants that all time HR record for catchers, but he is a defensive liability, which isn’t exactly being a team player. Yogi Berra played in the outfield for quite a few years. That being said, the guy can hit for average and power unlike any catcher before him. I think he will have to play a few more years or win a series to completely seal his trip to the hall.

Alex Rodriguez-- The guy has been the best overall player in baseball since he busted out in 96, but if he has some freak injury and his career ends tomorrow, does he get into the hall? Maybe yes, maybe no.

Ken Griffey Jr.-- You can never go home – that is so very true. He is still young. If he can get into the AL, where he can get some at bats as a DH and stick for a few years, Griffey could overcome the past few years. If he continues to flame out, with the crab act overshadowing memories of “the kid”, he will be remembered, but I doubt that he will get into the hall. The guy used to be a TERROR as a clutch hitter, remember that playoff series against the Yanks?

Pedro Martinez—The guy is one of the best pitchers ever with just at times un-hittable stuff, but I think his hall resume needs a second act. As I pointed out in a Clemens thread, he is the same age as Roger was when he was “washed up” and left Boston. I think he needs to have a few more solid seasons or be the guy that leads Boston to a World Series win to finalize his hall entrance.

Mike Mussina-- Moose is good, but he has been kind of shaky in the playoffs and has never won 20 games. I suppose he is similar to someone like Don Sutton, except with a much higher ERA. If he can stay healthy and productive to the age of 40, he has an outside shot at 300 wins. What would ensure his entry to the hall would be having a couple of big wins helping the Yanks win a couple more world series.

Gary Sheffield— I think how Sheffield’s stay in NY will be answer whether he gets into the hall. The guy is definitely not going to win votes for being a nice guy, but if he puts his stats up near someone like Frank Robinson, which is not out of the question, and wins a ring or two with the Yanks, the writers are going to have to stuff it and put him into the hall. Sheff has some injuries and being a pain might lead him to get dumped on the outside without a job, so he might not make the hall, which will piss him off to no end.

Frank Thomas (Jeff Bagwell – he also should be on this list.) -- These guys have nearly put up identical career records and are the same age. The Big Hurt was a better player at his peak, but Bagwell has been more consistent. If they can continue to play well in their mid to late 30s and/or finally have some playoff success, they will get to the hall of fame. Would Stargell be a hall of famer without “We Are Family’ and that great 79 season? Maybe…maybe not. If not…they will be close.

Craig Biggio (not on the list)—If he can be consistent and play well for another four years or so, he is going to get close to 3k hits. I think if Bagwell, Biggio, Clemens and Pettitte put together some magical World Series win, it will shine a whole lot of light on Biggio and Bagwell, and will give them a bunch more luster and perhaps a plaque at Cooperstown. Biggio has been an allstar at three positions (C, 2b & OF—what a combo) and also has four gold gloves at 2b.

Jim Thome (not on the list)- This guy is 33 and already has 381 HRs. Thome is in his prime and with three more big years could be 36 and over 500 hrs. If he continues to play at a high level into his late 30s and/or wins a series in Philly, I think he will become someone mentioned for hall membership. If you compare his stats, they are very similar to Willie McCovey and Harmon Killebrew.

Won’t make the hall:

Juan Gonzalez-- He cannot stay healthy and has acted like an ass, so I doubt that he will get the big numbers that usually ring the bell. He is the modern Dick Allen.

Larry Walker-- The guy is a great hitter, but I think unless he puts up the magic numbers of 3k hits or something of the like, people are going to point out his stay in Colorado. I doubt he will stay healthy long enough to get 3000 hits or 500+ hrs. He also doesn't have any big playoff experience. Andre Dawson had a good career and also had a great arm in the outfield, but I don’t think he is ever going to get into the hall or if he does it will be with the vets committee.

ack...such crap.

I think Dawson, Jim Rice and (gasp) Steve Garvey are players that will perhaps get into the hall once they are up for vets committee balloting.

But that shouldn't and will not invalidate the first part of Bonds's career, especially since you can't retroactively hold it against him (if in fact he did juice) since there were no rules against the juice prior to last season. It'd be like taking away Caminiti's MVP award

Checking it out, Juan Gonzalez is still only 34. Hard to believe, but true, considering how long he has been in the majors. I still doubt that he will be able to keep everything together, but he has 429 jacks allready. If he gets his act together, I suppose it wouldn't be much to get to 500. Jose Canseco definitely put up hall of fame numbers up to the age of 34, but after that didn't do squat except become a punchline. I might have to move Juangone up to wait and see.

Chipper Jones is also half way to a hall of fame career. He is 31 and has over 1588 hits, 280 Hrs, 943 rbis in nine full seasons. If he can stay healthy and consistent, which he has been since coming into the majors, he has a good shot at a hall of fame career. Going from numbers at the baseball-reference site, his stats are slightly better than Bonds at the same age. I tend to doubt Chipper is going to hit 73HRs at age 36, but he could still put up close to 3000 hits and 500 hrs.

Manny Ramierez career hitting stats are similar to Chipper and are the same age. Manny is probably too muy loco to be able to keep it up till he is 40. He is to likely to have some freak accident with a dentist, bar fight or a satillite dish and end his career.

Nomar and Jeter are both also about half way to a hall of fame career. If both they stay healthy, productive and winning; I see no reason that they won't be considered. They much further off than anyone else I have mentioned.

And that matters for stat inflation, too. Palmeiro's numbers (or whomever's) might not be enough, when he doesn't have a superstar/winner image. The Hall is going to have to get more selective, or start inducting way more people.

If Bill James concepts (sabremetrics, win shares, etc.) really pay off for the Red Sox, I think they could become key, though.

Bill James in his books talks a bunch about peak performance versus career performance, which makes sense. Jim Rice at his peak performance was as good and devestating a hitter that played the game, but his career was pretty much done around age 33, where guys like Aaron, Mays and others continued to play at a very high level to around age forty.

Pitchers are not quite held to those rule book numbers, as many great ones just don't end up playing long enough to put them up. Gibson, Palmer, Koufax and a bunch of other hall of fame starters never won 300 games, mostly as injuries and wear and tear ended their career a few years early.

The percentage numbers are probably more telling, but you they can't beat the freakitude of Rose having 4256 hits, Ryan's 5714 strikeouts, or Cy Young's 511 wins. Think about it: you would have to play 21 years and average 200 hits a year to even get a shot at Rose or 19 seasons of 300 ks to get to Ryan or 25 wins a year for 20 years to get to Cy Young. Other than the outlandish single season performance of in slugging or ERA, it just doesn't seem quite as mind boggling.

I really hope this linkie thing works - <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/rosepe01.shtml">PETE ROSE</a>

He hit .325 at 40?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/rosepe01.shtml

1990 the Reds pitching fell into place (they picked the last part of the nasty boys troika) and they won it all with Lou at the helm.

*sigh* Wins wins wins -- you guys know that pitchers don't actually WIN games, right? I even heard Joe Morgan say last night that pitchers lose games on bad breaks all the time... Moose would have several 20-win seasons with decent run support.

Mussina has pitched about as well in the postseason as Andy Pettitte has, but just hasn't been scored for as much. Three more typical seasons and he's in the HOF.

McGriff is not a Hall of Famer. Palmeiro has a stronger case, but we're getting to the point where 500 HR won't be a lock anymore.

Larkin has suffered from the Shortstop Boom.

Jeter needs a second-half-of-career renaissance, even if the "Moneyball is heresy" crowd never notice he's terrible defensively.

Deserving HOFer who will be criminally neglected in the balloting: Tim Raines.

as long as character is a quality for induction, mr. "i slide head first so i don't break the coke vial in my sock" raines shouldn't hold his breath. fair or not those are the rules and until they're changed... well, then he'll be overlooked for his on-field accomplishments.

How can one "not imagine" Bagwell as a HOFer, when he and Big Hurt not only have nearly identical offensive stats, but Bags doesn't disgrace himself with the glove?

i don't think jeter needs a renaissance, especially since he hasn't even started declining offensively yet. he's been the undisputed leader of the latest yankees dynasty, and has put up fantastic offensive numbers. people really need to stop comparing him to his peak/fluke '99 season. he's been compltely consistent aside from that. i think the one thing he needs to do to cement his induction is move, preferably to centerfield, and soon.

and though again i warn i'm shit at HoF evals, moose seems more like a "really really good pitcher not quite good enough for the hall" then a lock to me. definitely a few ballots down the road, anyway. i'd say he's a notch above david cone, whatever that means.

i don't, i really really don't. give me a guy who likes to imbibe a little too much or likes a smoke now and then over a bible thumping religious freak anyday. put them in the hall based on what went on between the lines, leave the judgment of character to the civic organizations.

Mussina: 15 starts (5-5)
Pettite: 30 starts (13-8)

Tim Raines at his peak was as good as Henderson as a lead off hitter, except he had a better arm and a bit more power. The guy played the game at full speed, but maybe the problems off the field also is why he was injury prone as he got older.

What I'm saying is that if you invent a whole new field of physics, win a couple of Nobel prizes and then work out your retirement in comfortable anonymity for another ten years, what value do these ten years really have? Negligible compared to your Nobel prize, but to the Hall of fame they're an essential and obligatory requirement.

The vast majority of Hall of Famers have many, many seasons of average-to-decent baseball which add to their counting stats but in isolation would represent the career of a league average journeyman. How come this element is valued so highly? I think the peak years of a career should be weighed vastly more positively, even if the proverbial cliff is then fallen off.

I think there are so many things that could sink Jones's candidacy. I'm trying to view this through the eyes of the voters (and I think change in how the voters approach things will continue to happen gradually, not all of a sudden):

1) the fact that his last good season may well turn out to be before he turned 30 (huge)
2) the low BA and OBA; I don't .250 is going to stop being a huge psychological barrier anytime soon
3) the fact that he emerges from an era of inflated offense with a sub-.500 slugging pct.
4) the possibility that he may start bouncing from team to team (four in four years); I might be wrong, but I think this is a marginal negative for some voters (deserved or not)

On the other side, you've got great defense through his 20s, and possibly 500 HR if he can turn things around. When he was headed towards 600, I would have said yes. Barring a return to what he was doing in the early 00's, I can't see it.

so what about Delgado? he never made it to 500 hrs (he wants to make a comeback and try for it - but i doubt it will happen) - but he had 7/8 years where he was absolutely dominant.
i think even two more years of him hitting like he did in his prime would have made him a sure-fire HOF'er, but i'm not sure if he'll ever make it.

xpost

This thread actually indicates how things might go for Jones: a protracted, Blyleven-like debate, with induction well down the road.

"so what about Delgado? he never made it to 500 hrs (he wants to make a comeback and try for it - but i doubt it will happen) - but he had 7/8 years where he was absolutely dominant."

He was 1B though! Offensive dominance should be a given and even there plenty of 1B were better than Delgado during that time period.

a few were, sure. i dunno about plenty tho.

exhibit A for why counting stats are bullshit is probably someone like tony perez, who was a very good 1B for a few seasons but the rest of the time was pretty average and he stuck around for 23 seasons, the last 11 of which he was basically kevin millar.

Hometown bias, I admit, but Delgado's run was from '96 to 2008. Pujols was better, Bagwell, McGwire at the beginning, Giambi for three or four years...Helton, I don't know; you'd have to weight Coors properly; Thome, maybe, except I'm not sure how much of his time was spent DH-ing. For the duration of that (artificial, but no more than any decade-best window) 12 years, I'd say Delgado's third behind Pujols and Bagwell. I might be forgetting somebody obvious.

"a few were, sure. i dunno about plenty tho."

Guys who overlapped with part or all of Delgado's best years and were better:

Pujols
Bagwell
Thome
Thomas
McGwire
Helton
Giambi

I favour peak over career, so a first baseman (primarily a hitting position) should have been one of the top 10 players in baseball for at least 5-7 years (not necessarily consecutive) to be a HOFer.

That's valid. I prefer that there be two equally legitimate routes: peak and career (with the automatics being strong in both). I'd say Palmeiro's an easy pick based on career, and at least a borderline in terms of peak.

I like Delgado btw, but 1) he actually was really bad post-06 and didn't really get going until 98 and 2) even during his very best years there was at least a couple of those other first basemen who were better.

Just one other thing about Palmeiro. His walk totals are pretty good. Not freakishly good like Bonds, and neither was he a consistent 100-walk guy, but he did draw 100+ three times, 90-100 two times, and 80-90 two times; 1353 total, 31st all-time. A lot of that has to do with his longevity, but obviously there are numerous guys who played 20 seasons who aren't anywhere near the career leaders in walks.

Of course I'm not saying he was Mays or Aaron. But, elephant-in-the-room aside, I think there's gotta be a place in the Hall of Fame for him.

re:

1) i totally disagree here - he certainly had health problems, but i would not use the word "bad" to describe his 2 1/2 seasons after 06. maybe bad by the standard he had set in the 8 years previous. '07 was nothing to crow about, but '08 was a solid season and in '09 he was mostly injured but when he did play his output was solid.

2) i have to agree here tho. with the exception of maybe 2000 & 2003 a few of those guys on the list usually out performed him in one season or another. but your average HOF'er is going to be in a similar situation too.

xpost

if you adjust for the era in which delgado played, he definitely comes up short. if the dude put up those numbers in the '60s-'80s, he'd be first-ballot. sometimes i look at players in the modern era and i'm amazed not just at the cumulative career numbers they put up but how fast they arrived at those numbers.

and how fast they crash to earth!

yeah and i mean guys like derrek lee can quietly assemble careers that will maybe end w/around 400 HR and 1400 RBI and folks just shrug at it and he'll be off the HOF ballot in one year.

"but your average HOF'er is going to be in a similar situation too."

If your average HoFer is Palmeiro or Sutton, that's true, but I would think most HoFers have at least a couple of years where they are the best player at their position (in their league at the very least).

well, Delgado def had at least two (i say this without checking any other stats from 2000 & 2003 and could be totally wrong).

I know some really like the Wins Abover Replacement stat, but Chipper Jones actually holds up pretty well on the career stat at Baseball Reference.

The guy is #56 all time and has a slew of Hall of Famers below him.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_career.shtml

By comparison, Carlos Delgado is like #337 on the same list.

I think Chipper Jones most likely retiring a lifetime Brave and having that MVP will probably help carry him on. I don't think it will be automatic, but I think it will eventually happen, especially if it doesn't happen voting and goes to the vet committee.

Chipper is a cinch, with the usual caveat.

Chipper no doubt.

chipper should be 1st ballot and might be

"well, Delgado def had at least two (i say this without checking any other stats from 2000 & 2003 and could be totally wrong)."

Giambi had a monster year in 2000, as did Thomas. By 2003 he'd definitely passed those guys though and only Pujols really had the case for being the better 1B at that point. Unfortunately Delgado was never quite that valuable again and he was also a butcher in the field so...

active pitchers version. left pettitte, hoffman, and wagner in there why because they look interesting. culled from a list of both active leaders in wins and active leaders in saves.

Jamie Moyer
Andy Pettitte
Roy Halladay
Tim Hudson
CC Sabathia
Roy Oswalt
Mark Buehrle
Johan Santana
Carlos Zambrano
Cliff Lee
Trevor Hoffman
Mariano Rivera
Billy Wagner
Francisco Rodriguez
Joe Nathan
Jonathan Papelbon

I know it's early, but I'd throw Justin Verlander on there too--three Top 10s in Cy Young voting (and one near-miss) by age 27 is a pretty good start. Anyway, after Rivera, I think Hoffman's 97%, and Halladay must be close to 90% by now (i.e., if he coasts, he's in). Sabathia and Santana are in pretty good shape, I would think. I can't see Cliff Lee ever making the Hall. With relief pitchers, I think we'll have a better sense of what's required in about 10 years, when you start getting a deluge of 300 & 400-save guys.

You missed Lincecum; best chance after Rivera, Hoffman, and Halladay, I'd say (if his arm holds up).

Rivera's a no doubt guy. Hoffman's probably going to make it too. We've talked about Wagner elsewhere, but I think probably not.

Halladay's pretty close. He might need a couple of more of his typically good years to cement it, but I think he'll get in eventually either way.

If Sabbathia keeps up what approximately he's been doing for the next 5-10 years I think he's pretty much a shoe-in. He'll be close to 275 wins and have 3000+ SOs.

Santana's going to have to reverse his decline and put up some great years again, I think. It's hard to tell what the thresholds will be for the next set of starting pitchers (will a starting pitcher with sub-200 wins make it?) Santana was definitely hands down the best pitcher in baseball for three years though so he should have a leg up on everyone not named Halladay.

Oswalt is like Santana (except he was never the hands down the best and he's not really declining much). He needs at least another 4 or 5 good/great years as well.

None of the rest of those guys should come close.

Lincecum is the next best next bet, I agree, with Verlander right behind him.

lincecum has already accomplished so much, yeah. his durability is a maybe a red flag but then again it was like that for pedro too but he lasted for awhile before burning out. verlander does seem to have everything in place to be the righty version of sabathia imo.

looking at Sabathia, i don't think he has another quality 10 years in him.

Sabathia being as young as he was is really his biggest advantage over most of these dudes. Getting 40 someodd wins and 500 SOs is a big leg up in the counting stat department.

Uh Thermy:

2/9/2011: Sabathia lost 30 pounds this offseason, ESPNNewYork.com reports.

Hah j/k obviously he might not. But he's not shown much sign of breakdown so far despite being his current not svelt self for quite a number of years.

Ha ha!

He's only had an era under 3.00 one season in his career - counting stats are going to be his way into the hall. he's lucky he's on the yanks in that regard!

Yeah Sabathia is definitely going to be one of those dudes whose bonafides are heavily influenced by his longevity/career totals. But once you adjust for league/ballpark his ERA+ is pretty good. And he won a totally deserved Cy Young and has been deservedly top 5 three other times. He's not Don Sutton (to this point anyway.)

he's got an outside shot at reaching 200 wins by the end of 2012, and i think barring a complete breakdown he gets to 300.

i think sabathia's a long shot for 300. if i had to put money on one current pitcher getting there i'd probably pick halladay despite the age difference

Sabathia: 157 wins, 2100 innings, about to turn 31. Halladay: 169, 2300 innings, about to turn 34. Halladay's obviously the better pitcher, so it should be close. Neither guy strikes me as someone who's going to experience a sudden decline, and, at least for now, they're both set up on excellent teams. One thing's for sure: at some point, people will start to speculate that they'll be the last two guys to win 300 games ever, something that just never turns out to be true.

i think if we're looking at potential 300 win candidates (and it's probably a fool's gambit trying to bet on who will get there until they clear 250 and remain in full health) felix hernandez is able to average 15 wins per season through his age 30 season, he'll be at 161 for his career.

Forgot all about Felix. 71 wins at the age of 25; Seaver had 57, Clemens 60, Maddux 75. He's also already got a Cy Young share on Baseball Reference of 1.42, which is 31st all-time. He's in great shape.

ya - if we're going to include Lincecum - we have to throw Felix in too.

The once caveat with regards to Lincecum and Hernandez is obvious. Roll call, please: Dwight Gooden, Steve Avery, Alex Fernandez, Kerry Wood, Juan Guzman, Barry Zito, etc. These weren't Stephen Strasburg guys who (possibly) blew their arms out before they even got started; rather, a group of pitchers who got a real fast jump and then, for one reason or another (mostly arm trouble, but not always) just stalled. I have nothing to base this on, but my guess is that one of Lincecum or Hernandez doesn't pan out through his 30s.

That's pretty much the caveat regarding everyone though. Pitchers can fall apart real fast.

Again, just a hunch, but don't pitchers play out this scenario more often? You get the occasional Carlos Baerga or Chuck Knoblauch--early brilliance, then mysterious decline--but in my own mind, I remember far more cases involving pitchers (the arm's fragility being the obvious reason). Great young hitters seem to follow through on their early promise more consistently.

Sorry I meant that's pretty much the caveat regarding all pitchers.

Position players can fall apart fast too though, but it's usually once they get to their mid-30s for obvious aging reasons.

Yeah--I can think of a slew of mid-30s positional guys breaking down: Murphy, Alomar, Rice, Mo Vaughn, Mattingly, etc. (Ignoring anybody PED-related...or maybe they're the guys who don't break down.)

McGwire def. fell apart.

30 position players, kinda chosen based on at the bare minimum having maybe accomplished enough that even if they dropped off the cliff this upcoming season they would merit strong consideration in some quarters.

Bobby Abreu
Carlos Beltran
Adrian Beltre
Lance Berkman
Miguel Cabrera
Johnny Damon
Carlos Delgado
Adam Dunn
Jim Edmonds
Vladimir Guerrero
Todd Helton
Ryan Howard
Derek Jeter
Andruw Jones
Chipper Jones
Paul Konerko
Joe Mauer*
Magglio Ordonez
David Ortiz*
Jorge Posada
Albert Pujols
Manny Ramirez
Scott Rolen
Ichiro Suzuki
Mark Teixeira
Miguel Tejada
Jim Thome
Chase Utley
Omar Vizquel
Mike Young

― omar little, Thursday, February 3, 2011 3:57 PM (3 years ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

well some of these dudes are going nowhere near the HOF, for sure. some of them should but won't.

*depends on the rest of their career, i think.

are you talking about EVER? What if they actually do fix the Veterans Committee someday? I can particularly see Utley, Rolen and maybe Andruw getting in.

i'm being pessimistic on that point. i agree utley and rolen should get in though.