The Counting Stat Formerly Known as a Big Deal : best bet for 300 wins

kershaw in a landslide

bumgarner turned 28 yesterday and has 101 wins, but this year has been a write-off and the giants seem poorly situated to help him in the near term

porcello is 28 and has 111 wins but pitching for good teams can only take him so far

the answer is none of these

Felix and Verlander looked like solid bets at one point--if they could pull off Frank Tanana-like transformations in the way they pitch, outside chance, but almost nil now. Sale's got 87 at 28--seems remote, but if he could plow through the next decade like Randy Johnson, picking up 17-18 wins a year, I wouldn't say he's out of it. Scherzer's career numbers are paralleling Halladay's closely, so I expect he'll end up in the low 200s.

Kershaw's the best bet, I'd say, and I'm starting to think he's only 50/50 because of these recurring back issues.

C.C.'s a free agent after this year; I guess if he lucked out and landed with a good team for the next two or three seasons, he'd be in a position to make a run. Very doubtful.

Felix has a chance if he can stay healthy. With better luck and/or not pitching for so many bad Mariners teams he could have had another 40 wins by now, and a fairly good shot at 300.

I might rank Lester ahead of Kershaw. Lester has been healthy every year while Kershaw's injuries might start accumulating in his 30's.

Can't see any of these guys doing it unless they're able to pitch until they're 45. Of all those on the list I'd say Zack has the best chance of doing that, I can see him adjusting into some Maddux-like pitcher as he ages. In an era where pitchers rarely go past the 7th inning anymore, this seems basically impossible

Jered Weaver is going to develop a knuckleball, discover the benefits of stretching, and win his 300th game in 2028.

Hard to gauge historical precedent in this particular category, things have changed so much. Anything pre-war is useless; even Spahn and Early Wynn, who start in '42 and '39 but do much of their pitching in the '50s, are of minimal value. (Didn't realize Spahn also relieved 3-5 times a year. Didn't affect his win total much, though--he was 5-18 in relief.)

Here are the win totals after the age of 35 for all the 300-win guys since.

Greg Maddux – 98
Roger Clemens – 121
Steve Carlton – 80
Nolan Ryan – 119
Don Sutton – 94
Phil Niekro – 188
Gaylord Perry – 116
Tom Seaver – 66
Tom Glavine – 81
Randy Johnson – 143

You can throw out Niekro as a point of comparison because of the knuckleball. Clemens (and possibly Johnson) is a little dicey because of PED-association, but put that aside. (James has been saying for a number of years that "we know" two or three PED-users are already in the Hall of Fame--my guess is that Ryan is one of the guys he's implicating.) If you eliminate Niekro, the range of wins after 35 is between Seaver's 66 and Johnson's 143; the median is Maddux's 98. So, with major caveats, semi-recent history suggests you need 200 wins by age 35 to have a decent shot--fewer if you're an extreme power pitcher or have a really good spitball.

271 pitches in Kansas City yesterday. Non-winning pitchers threw 270 of 'em.

— Tim Brown (@TBrownYahoo) August 4, 2017

wins suck

(xpost) That's remarkable--extreme case, obviously, but wow.

What'll make it harder for these guys is that, as wins become more and more of a non-issue when evaluating pitchers, they won't need to worry about that come contract/free-agent time. As recently as even 15 years ago, starting pitchers needed to log wins to land big contracts. They don't anymore.

boring answer, but none of these guys has a good shot

It's Dave Stieb-David Cone-Frank Viola-Kevin Brown-Bret Saberhagen-Don McLean all over again. A generation lost in space/With no time left to start again...

i agree with k3vin. I think Scherzer's gonna get enough to head into the HOF, and Kershaw's already there, but they're respectively too old and likely too injury prone to make it to 300. CC would need a massive comeback and i don't see him sticking around that long to get there. Verlander has almost zero shot. some of these other guys just didn't have the right circumstances to get there or were too inconsistent or got good when they were old.

i do think there are 1 or 2 other HOFers on that list aside from Scherzer and Kershaw though.

ervin santana has had a weird career

3 shutouts this year!

and -1.3 WAR in 2012! somehow it all works out to a 103 ERA+

i do think there are 1 or 2 other HOFers on that list aside from Scherzer and Kershaw though.
― nomar, Friday, August 4, 2017 12:52 PM (three hours ago)

Sounds about right. Kershaw's basically in, Scherzer's close; at least one (maybe two) from Felix, Verlander, and Greinke; maybe one longshot after that. (Sale didn't make NoTime's cutoff, but, as I said above, I think he's a possibility for 300 and a better bet for the HOF.)

boring answer, but none of these guys has a good shot

The "best bet" is obviously to bet against all these guys, but where's the fun in that?

Until this season, Hamels was durable enough to have a half decent shot at 300 (and the HOF, currently 6th in WAR among active pitchers, just behind Felix and Verlander, but way ahead of Scherzer and Lester).

He makes it clear that none is this is meant to be taken too seriously, but there's a comment in here by Fleming, explaining why he puts David Price at 35% for the HOF, that seems pertinent to this thread.

http://www.billjamesonline.com/the_cooperstown_sox/

"The reason I guessed 35% for Price is that he's in a pack of pitchers in their early thirties who a) have about 120-160 wins, b) with a good winning percentage, and c) a CY or two. He's in the pack with Scherzer and Lester and Grienke and Verlander and Hamels and Felix. Seven pitchers."

I think the money these guys make now will probably lead some of them to call it quits earlier than some players of the past. How many of these guys do you see really pitching at age 40? Many of them are under contract to age 36-37.

Are there any of them that might hang around as a reliever at the end of a career? Got to figure one of them will end up doing so.

I can see Zack pitching until he's 45

I understand the opposite argument, but I've always seen the big money as an incentive to stay around longer--stay for as long as someone's willing to pay you a few million--not quit.

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lol

big games indeed