Marcus Stroman won't stop tweeting; 2019 Vlad Guerrero Jr/Blue Jays thread

OPS+ is indexed so that 100 is league average. It adjusts with the year/hitting environment.

Right--he's having a slightly less productive season than last year, but offense is down league-wide, so his OPS+ is up seven points.

Yeah, the mlb-wide decline in hitting makes what Judge is doing even more bonkers

Good Jay Jaffe piece on Gausman:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fip-or-flop-why-kevin-gausman-isnt-part-of-the-al-cy-young-conversation/

1) He's been historically unlucky this year--his BABIP of .365 is the highest ever (or at least since 1901);

2) It may not just be bad luck, though--teams tend to hit him hard. (I notice the seeing-eye singles more, but I guess there's more to it.)

I just feel like--intuition, could be totally wrong (and easily checkable)--the Jays have had a poor record in closing games of series the last couple of years, that they miss opportunities to sweep or win three out of four, or today to win four out of five.

And you think I'm crazy...I down there today, and the loss aside, it was pretty great: Manoah, Teoscar's catch, A TRIPLE PLAY (I'd never even seen one on TV), and Bichette in the bottom of the 9th with a chance to win it. The blown save hurt.

Blowing two big leads would be very ominous.

Not to worry...The Phillies catcher throws four Eephus pitches to Jansen (one timed at 38 m.p.h.), then sneaks in an 84-m.p.h. fastball for a swinging strike three. Funniest thing I've seen this year.

(one timed at 38 m.p.h.)

i am looking forward to watching this soon. that's the slowest radar reading i've ever heard of

what is the slowest you can throw a pitch in earth air and have it reach the plate without bouncing?

if you throw it incredibly hard, almost straight up, like 200 feet high on an arc, and then it lands directly on the plate, wtf is the mph reading on that?

clemenza please pass this question on to the incredibly cranky bill james

Bill: Theoretically, what is
Asked by: clemenza

Answered: 9/20/2022
You're actually, not just theoretically, wasting my time here.

Yes. Wake him, if you must.

theres a quora answer with a bunch of math im too tired to read that says there is a slowest possible pitch, and it's 28.5 mph ignoring wind and spin. this is assuming that speed isn't calculated by time the ball leaves the hand -> time the ball is in the catcher's mitt, otherwise you could approach zero with km's "throw it straight up" approach

Physicists (@pobguy?) can better speak to this than I can but I believe to get a 35 mph pitch to reach the plate requires a pretty significant parabola. Eephus or it's not reaching the plate. Hard to throw much slower than this. https://t.co/FFa95sBgth

— JJ Cooper (@jjcoop36) June 13, 2022

35 mph in june

I can't play this for some reason, but you may be able to--the strikeout last night.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/video/phillies-catcher-stubbs-plays-rope-dope-blue-jays-jansen-hilarious-strikeout/

Seems to be working...Shulman: "Oh...oh--that's not right."

I love Shulman so much

More than the losses to TB, the runs they're giving up is a big problem, and I'm including the 18-11 win vs PHI as part of that problem. I have very little confidence in this team winning a playoff series right now.

I know the "shutdown inning" is an annoying cliché, but tonight and that game against the Phillies, the pitchers have been giving back runs as fast as we score them.

Two tough losses for the Orioles, disastrous loss for the Mariners; finally feels like we're in the clear.

I think the league is more or less set, just shuffling the Order of wild card teams, which may aswel be random

1987 turned me into a hand-wringer for life.

Back-door clinch.

I think this team's Achilles heel going into the playoffs is grounding into double plays, something they lead the league in. So many potential rallies killed.

Shitty base running and admiring their doubles has been their weakness lately. (Also 2/5 of their rotation)

Looking at the playoff schedule, I thought at first they could get through the first two series with three starters. They can't, unless Manoa and Gausman go on three days' rest for a couple of starts. I guess they just go with Berrios and cross their fingers.

As they point out on broadcasts, he's been significantly better at home this year (mediocre vs. terrible).

yeah, i'm thinking of a similar playoff rotation/pitching conundrum for the Cardinals as well. It's nice to host the Wild Card, I guess, since 3 games are at home. But the lack of days off between the games means that whoever starts Game 1 of the Wild Card probably wouldn't be ready until Game 2 of the Division series (unless they're some kind of legendary beast like Scherzer or whatever)

Double Plays Grounded Into

1. Guerrero • TOR - 26
2. Urshela • MIN - 21
3. Martinez • BOS - 20
3. Bichette • TOR - 20
5. Abreu • CHW - 19
5. Rosario • CLE - 19
5. Miranda • MIN - 19
8. Bregman • HOU - 17
8. Correa • MIN - 17
8. Arozarena • TBR 17
8. Hernandez • TOR 17

I think the best finish--Toronto, Seattle, Tampa Bay--looks very possible right now. We'd get home-field, and wouldn't have to face the Rays in the first round.

I think the Mariners would have to win two more games than the jays in the next 4 games to flip spots with them, so ya - looking safe-ish

canadians with the win and save today for the first time in jays history

If only Russ Martin could have caught the game!

Glad I'm not working today--I want to see this!

https://www.stcatharinesstandard.ca/ts/sports/bluejays/2022/10/07/blue-jays-hint-edwin-encarnacion-will-throw-first-pitch-in-game-1-today.html?li_source=LI&li_medium=stcatharinesstandard_sports

I made sure I had no work lined up. Heading over to the Dock Ellis to watch this shortly!

the guy dressed as a parrot with a little edwin on his arm 👌

Not unexpected in view of his upbringing, but I really feel that Vladdy has a genuine interest in and knowledge of the game's past (thing's like getting Edwin's autograph).

How perfect a match-up is Gausman/Ray?

I just had to turn down tickets to the game.
Here’s hoping I regret it!

The thing that most bothered me about yesterday was Teoscar grounding into that DP on the first pitch he saw. You're down three runs, lead-off man on, is it too much to ask to see one pitch? As I posted, they've been doing that all season long.

Getting close to save-some-for-tomorrow territory, but it never hurts to empty out the other bullpen.

Please ignore previous comment. It's like I'd never watched a baseball game before...

Ninth run by Toronto, everything's fine, I'll nap/listen in front of the TV. First thing I'm aware of is Romano's second strikeout; I look up, bases are loaded; then the bloop.

This won't be worse than the way 1985, 1987, or 2015 ended--I thought the Jays had the best team in baseball those years; one or two of them, anyway--but it'll be bad.

Still hasn't really sunk in here. The posts on my FB wall are brief and few.

I really didn’t get pulling Gausman for mayza at the time and I am so agitated about it now. That and bo who always played SS like there was no outfielders behind him - awful that it caught up to him the way it did. Springer looked really messed up out there.

We need to start a new thread in the spring and bury this one forever.

Agreed.

we all must bury the past

Has Marcus Stroman stopped tweeting? We should maybe check with him first.