August 5, 1998: career HR predictions at this point

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This was from some website called Sports Collector's Universe (yeesh) and here's what they said about who would finish with how many homers...

time changes a lot.

PLAYER AGE HR/CAREER PREDICTED

GRIFFEY, Ken 29 318 693

RODRIGUEZ, Alex 23 85 686

GONZALES, Juan 29 275 683

MCGWIRE, Mark 35 415 581

THOMAS, Frank 30 266 579

BONDS, Barry 34 388 539

CANSECO, Jose 34 368 539

BELLE, Albert 32 285 532

RAMIREZ, Manny 26 119 527

THOME, Jim 28 148 499

PIAZZA, Mike 30 178 495

SOSA, Sammy 30 226 489

WILLIAMS, Matt 33 290 474

MCGRIFF, Fred 35 346 466

VAUGHN, Mo 31 208 459

KLESKO, Ryan 27 109 458

JONES, Chipper 26 90 451

SALMON, Tim 30 165 447

PALMER, Dean 30 176 442

BAGWELL, Jeff 30 196 441

― Gear! (Gear!), Saturday, 26 June 2004 00:15 (twenty-one years ago)

I think that Griffey, A-Rod, Big Hurt, Piazza and Chipper could be about right. And I they got pretty close to McGwire. Others, not so much...(where's Raffy?)

― Gear! (Gear!), Saturday, 26 June 2004 00:17 (twenty-one years ago)

Ha, 539 for Bonds.
I will bet my right arm that ARod hits more homers than Aaron (if he stays healthy).

― Barry Bruner (Barry Bruner), Saturday, 26 June 2004 04:05 (twenty-one years ago)

PALMER, Dean 30 176 442

― miloauckerman (miloauckerman), Saturday, 26 June 2004 04:06 (twenty-one years ago)

I wonder what tool they used .. .Bill James created a formula called the Favorite Toy for career projections.

I wouldn't mock a mid-'98 projection of BB. You can only base it on a player's age and what he's done in the PAST, and Bonds' performance after age 34 is unprecedented.

― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Monday, 28 June 2004 12:58 (twenty-one years ago)

McGriff is ahead of where they predicted by 30 hrs, so hatas step back.

There is no way Juan Gone will hit 500, let alone 683.

― earlnash, Monday, 28 June 2004 13:08 (twenty-one years ago)

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